Why not? Pepi’s proved himself with the national team and Berhalter’s repeatedly expressed his “form is fallacy” mantra. He values performances with the USMNT over club form. Pepi is on my roster.
I like Pepi, but he's not really proven himself, neither with club nor country. 11 caps and 3 goals for the National Team. 11 caps for Augsburg and no goals. Nevertheless, I see his quality and I believe he will come good.
I think a lot is still up in the air with strikers, but I do feel that Gregg will take 3 true strikers (rather than 2 or 4). I also think Vasquez is the only possible new entrant to the pool, and that players like Morris and Weah will not be getting a look centrally. to me, Ferreira is the only player who has a spot completely locked up (assuming good health). I also think he is pretty damn likely to start against Wales as long as his club form is decent to close out the MLS season. beyond that, I think a lot is up in the air. Injuries and form will be key to the September call ups, but there will still be about 2 months after that until the World Cup, so some things might still change. Also, I think berhalter has not been very consistent, and is perhaps unsure about what he wants from his backup strikers in terms of their style and contributions. I do think Pepi has an inside spot on the backup spots as things stand now, but I also think he is the most likely player to be saddled on the bench this fall. If he is barely playing and not producing any, I think his status will depend on what other players are doing. I tend to think that Pepi will get a spot, and that Dike will get the third. I think it’s clear that GB likes Pepi and Ferreira more than his other options, but I also think Dike is the most likely to be firing this fall, and has the best work rate among him, Wright, and Pefok. I’m not sure how much Sarge will be in contention if he is playing on the wing for Norwich.
The old striker that just waits up front and puts the ball away is long gone. Now you need strikers that are mobile, that have high work rates, that will press, etc. Therefore, players like Ferreira and Pepi are what you are looking for. Still, I like Dike a lot. He is athletic and has a good goalscoring record both in MLS and the Championship. Pefok will need to prove something at Berlin, and he just might. I predict the strikers will be Ferreira, Pepi, and Dike. And if Pefok does well, then Gregg will take all 4. I should mention that Dike scored the second goal in West Brom's 2-1 over Hertha Berlin yesterday.
Pefok is at union Berlin, not Frankfurt, but I generally agree. If Pefok is scoring goals in the Bundesliga, leaving him off will not be easy. I don’t think berhalter is a big fan though, and I’m not either.
I'm with you. I think GB will take 3 CFs. Ferreira is probably a lock. I think the other two will not be small CFs but rather bigger ones to help bang the opponent CBs.Pefok is probably leading that group with Dike making a case. Wright is also scoring. Sargent is stuck in purgatory (RW) and may not get a chance to make it.
Thinking more about strikers. I think one of the challenges here is how few minutes most of the our potential strikers have had with the US given how high variance the scoring part of their job is. There are really 5 things we could try to accomplish, more or less: Continue to build cohesion, introduce tactical wrinkles and better integrate Ferreira into the team Bring back Pepi, either to build confidence or build cohesion Try out Reyna as a false 9 Try out a winger as a direct striker Try out one or more of the "big men" - Dike (439' but only a few healthy), Vazquez (0'), Pefok (300'), Wright (118') #1 will occur. I drop #3 right away. With Reyna's injury and lack of play with the team, I think you have to moderate what you ask Reyna to do in September. With Musah's June, I think a lot of folks will have moved to Reyna-as-CF, but it's a much bigger leap than CM for a guy who hasn't played much at all. We only have a week in November but that may be a better time to try out. Which leaves us with #2, #4, and however in depth you want to do with #5. I think #5 is a priority. With a 26 man roster, and a team that crosses a lot, and international play where set pieces are king ... having a big striker even just situationally makes sense. But who do you bring in? No one has truly had a "fair" shot in terms of playing enough for the scoring chances to even out. But I think we've seen enough at club and country to see style of play and skillsets. We don't get the benefit of camp play, which is going to be an even bigger sample against common comp, of course. Wright is my first drop. I've always been a bit skeptical of him, but I will say that he makes runs in behind the lines in open play better than Pefok, is better in the build up than Dike, and he's been scoring for club. Still, his lack of general energy, press, and I question his aerial ability at the WC level. The biggest thing is that he was here in June; we've seen the most recent version of him and more important, he's worked with the most recent version of the US. If we want him in November, missing September isn't an issue. Vazquez has the most well-rounded game. He's better in the build up, better in hold up, presses well. But he's doing it at a lower level and that makes legitimate questions on how that holds up moving to international play. He's playing very well and putting up numbers, but he also doesn't seem like he's playing down a level, so I think the question mark is valid. He's also basically starting from scratch with this team with a short window. Pefok is a straight poacher and aerial target in the box. He doesn't stretch the D, he doesn't do much in the build up, can't press. But of the guys, he's got the most goalscoring experience in terms of knowing where to be, and he's not going to get muscled/pushed around much. I neither hold his miss against him much nor really count the move to Union Berlin as a sign that we've missed a ton. He's not a great fit offensively or defensively, really, but he's a solid option that may be our best big guy. Dike is the upside pick and if you told me one dude exploded this fall and took the starting job ... it'd be Dike. Runs behind, great in the air in the box, big, burly problem. Will struggle with build up play and will definitely fail to get the shot off at times. Goes for power over placement. Will run, but he's not built for endurance, so less pressing. Honestly, I think Pefok could walk in in November and integrate as much as he's going to. Dike is my pick here. Between #2 and #4 above, I don't want to try Weah and I don't think we need to "try" Morris this window. Play him with that group, etc., but I don't think gametime is necessary. That can be a November choice if needed. So it's between Pepi and if you want to bring in Vazquez. Obviously, how Pepi plays and what his coach is saying will have an effect. I would be hesitant to bring in Pepi in November without bringing him in September. Like Dike, he has the upside. Bringing him in does feel a bit like wishcasting -- we can jumpstart him! I'm a sucker for his game. I think versus Vazquez the big questions come down to: is Pepi playing well/at all, and do you think Vazquez can actually be a starter and play closer to Ferreira, not just a change of pace. I'd probably do Ferreira, Pepi and Dike, but man, I do think Vazquez is intriguing just because it feels like his skillset is broad enough to play 90 without a ton of compromises. I'm just not sure he's actually good enough.
I know guys will complain about anything. But it would be hard to have any legit complaints if we only take Jesus, Pepi, and Dike. Love that Dike is healthy and banging in goals. He's such a fun player to watch. Looks like a kid who is fully enjoying himself out there.
I doubt we'll see more than three forwards, but if it were me I'd call in Ferreira, Pepi, Dike and Vazquez. And Pepi's spot is probably the most tenuous given recent form/playing time. If Pefok starts the season strong I'm also open to including him in the place of Pepi or Dike, but we'll see how the first month and a half of the season goes.
Good post. And only partially because I largely agree! Any of Dike, Pepi (even Sargent) or Pefok could play themselves on or off the WC squad with club play. I agree Dike is the most likely to provide benefit and get benefit from a run out in September. Vasquez seems too untested to invest in now, but who knows. The US definitely needs to consider adding more early crosses and winning second balls in the box to its arsenal.
Since it's difficult to assess what our future health situation will look like in November, the best way to assess the composition of the 26-man roster is to look at Berhalter's substitution patterns. The positions he most often substitutes for are the wingers, the CF, and the fullbacks. Therefore, not knowing what players we might take that might not be at 100% fitness and therefore in need of an extra backup (ie potentially Reyna), it's reasonable to expect that the three extra spots will be taken by an extra winger, an extra CF, and an extra fullback. Therefore, the 26-man November roster will consist of something very close to this: 3 GKs by rule 4 CBs (unless he decides to play a lot of 3-back, then we may see 5, but some FBs like Cannon can play 3rd CB) 5 fullbacks 6 central mids (at least 2 of which can play the Adams DM role) 5 wingers 3 center forwards Now, I do think it quite likely that, if 3 genuinely viable center forward options don't pan out, that he might well take Morris AND Arriola for 6 total wingers, potentially use Morris as an emergency 3rd CF option, and be done with it. There's also the possibility that he might consider Aaronson and/or Reyna has "half" a CM, and go 3 CFs, 5 central mids, and 6 wingers. Given the frequency with which we substitute and rotate the fullbacks, and the health situations of some of the CB candidates, we won't rob from either of those pools to boost the numbers elsewhere. Four CBs and 5 fullbacks, neither more nor less IMO.
I generally agree with all of that, except I think with Adams Acosta and Richards all on the roster already, you can get away with 4 fullbacks instead of 5, and take both 3 strikers and 6 wingers, so both Morris as a late game offensive sub and Acosta as a late game defensive sub... I just think it's more useful to bring more offensive oriented options on the roster than fullbacks. I can imagine scenarios where Morris or Arriola come into a game, having trouble seeing what purpose a fifth fullback would serve.
The 5 fullbacks is probably going to happen but I can't help but think it's excessive. Take your four best fullbacks and be prepared to play Cannon on the left. He's a better option than Bello, for me, and he's second choice to Dest on the left for me. Third choice, Kelyn Acosta. Is there time to find a better right back than Yedlin? He seems like a lock, which I don't like, based on form in his league. He seems antithetical to a team that wants to possess. If they had a baller right back besides Dest I'd feel better about the depth, but since the depth isn't WC quality (still time for Bello and Scally) don't waste the spot.
Definitely not in my 26, but I do often forget how much injury could impact things. During qualifying at various times we lost Pulisic, McKennie, Dike, Aaronson, Reyna, Dest, and who else amongst our attacking players? If we get hit the standard fashion we're probably going to be missing 2-4 of our 23 let alone 26, so that's gonna open the door to guys depending upon which position groups the injury bug hits. For me Morris is my Wing Forward #6 or #7, and at striker I'd put him probably around #6. So he's not on my 26 unless an absolute avalanche of injuries hits our attacking players. We'll see though, my guess is that he's WF #6 for Berhalter, and at striker he's probably somewhere between #3-5. If Dike, and Pefok pick up where they left off, and Pepi gets anything woken up in terms of playing forward, than I don't think he makes it at Striker, and at WF, there have to be 5 guys in front of them. How many wing forwards are we gonna take?
I'm pretty sure Berhalter looks at the basic formation this way ------brenden---pulisic--ferreira-----weah--- -------------------musah--adams arob/scally----long----------zim--------dest/cannon Rationale: We need 4 goal scorers on the pitch. Check. Ferreira and Brenden have both shown they will track back to help on defense and bringing the ball out of the back on the weaker(experience?) left side where ARob or Scally will be playing with Long(Richards?) and Musah. Check. Guys like Morris, say, will also do a lot of defensive work so they fit in the rotation for Brenden or Ferreira. Arriola works on the right side to help with wing defense like Weah. LDLT can step into Musah's role. Reyna more of less fills in for Pulisic Thinking about the above and who can step in for various players, it seems to me that Miazga might have been a miss for Berhalter. Reason? I think he is the best clone of Zimmerman when it comes to defending and passing out of the back. I don't know what kind of form he is in since he didn't really play for Alaves after February. He doesn't have a club afaik. He has a ton of experience, for sure. Eredvisie, Ch/ship, Anderlecht, LaLiga, Chelsea camps, a few games in Ligue 1. He always stepped up his game for national team. We lack an Adams clone.
I'd take Morris before Arriola, and I like Arriola. Arriola is going to be marginalized at the WC, his technique and less than top end speed will neutralize him, mostly. He'll be a one touch player, and a dodgy one. His hope is to hop on a turnover and get to goal, and he can do that. But so can too many other guys. And defensively, he's all effort, so tip of the cap, but he's not better than average for a winger, imo. Duels and second balls are a big part of soccer, and he's average. Not bad, but not good enough to sway me to think we need him to lock down a game. Morris is a pull the fire alarm, this is our last shot player in a way Arriola just isn't. Or Pepi, or Ferreira, I wouldn't expect those guys to be impact subs. I know if he came in and we needed a goal I'd feel the shot in the arm.
If Pefok proves he can score at the Bundesliga level (which he already has with Young Boys, to be perfectly frank), he proves he's capable of scoring against anyone, and then it becomes 100% system complaint and not talent complaint, and that makes it become idiotic to leave someone at home. My argument for bringing him to the final window obviously had hilariously bad timing, as in, "shark in the box, deadly finisher, wonderful goal mouth skills, and then he wrong footed a borderline easy as pie finish at Azteca (was interesting in real time, to see Wynalda respond to a fan during the game (or immediately after) asking if the miss was partly about Azteca itself and Wynalda said 100%. Anyway, if he continues his strong form from the last two years, he then becomes a key piece for a sub on weapon when games are stretched and no longer featuring standard tactics, and we're just looking for a goal, at that point he should be the #1 weapon, period off the bench at forward. Will he be? I'm skeptical, but he should be. Anyway, my 3 I'd take remain Ferreira, Pepi and mystery guy, and if we can take for, then I add either Pefok or Dike to the group, maybe both.
If Pefok proves he can score at the Bundesliga level (which he already has with Young Boys, to be perfectly frank), he proves he's capable of scoring against anyone, and then it becomes 100% system complaint and not talent complaint, and that makes it become idiotic to leave someone at home. My argument for bringing him to the final window obviously had hilariously bad timing, as in, "shark in the box, deadly finisher, wonderful goal mouth skills, and then he wrong footed a borderline easy as pie finish at Azteca (was interesting in real time, to see Wynalda respond to a fan during the game (or immediately after) asking if the miss was partly about Azteca itself and Wynalda said 100%. Anyway, if he continues his strong form from the last two years, he then becomes a key piece for a sub on weapon when games are stretched and no longer featuring standard tactics, and we're just looking for a goal, at that point he should be the #1 weapon, period off the bench at forward. Will he be? I'm skeptical, but he should be. Anyway, my 3 I'd take remain Ferreira, Pepi and mystery guy, and if we can take for, then I add either Pefok or Dike to the group, maybe both.
I would have agreed with you two years ago. However since Jordan's injury and both players loan to Swansea things are different. Arriola's offensive stats per 90 have jumped up a lot and is closer to Jordan's. Even a look at xG+xA shows improvement so it's not just a question of luck. Add in that he is just a lot more familiar with the MNT scheme and things look like Arriola with the edge.
AFAIR not gonna happen according to Gregg. So, yes, Ferreira, Pepi and Dike unless injuries, really poor form or someone else is getting too good not to force Gregg's hand.
Wales and Iran as far as I'm aware aren't athletic, pacey teams, England is, but 2/3 games are against teams with middling athleticism, the knockout round game would be against an athletic pacey team (Netherlands, Senegal, or Ecuador). All this being said, I actually think Arriola is plenty fast, and I think his job, if he makes the roster, is basically a Cobi Jones '02 role where he goes on to work as a defensive stopper, and energizer bunny wing late in games, and I think he'd be a threat as that against Wales, and Iran, and helpful on the defensive end against England, and a potential knockout opponent. I also just see him as a better tool for us in the cup than Morris, at least on the wing anyway. Morris could be relevant as striker so there is that. But I still think Arriola is ahead of Morris period in terms of the 26, regardless of fit and the rest, he's just a Berhalter guy with a particular collection of skills and role that Berhalter has him plugged in for if he's healthy.
I took the list below from a xbhaskarx post and twisted it up a bit. Let's bring 5 in-form forwards (with Jesus as the only lock). Any of them could arguably (except Pefok) be a back up winger (so the extra 2 are not dead weight). Morris (classified as Winger here) could be a back up target forward. Reyna, Aaronson, and Pulisic are back up Center Mids (so no reason to bring a fringe CM). Haji Wright and Sargent on the edge here, with a chance to knock someone out. We bring our best 5 Forwards (based on form at camp and just prior to World Cup). The match up for each game determines who gets minutes (of course). One of the 5 may get zero minutes, but we need to have a deep bench in this position. It may come down to who has the hot hand today (a specific match day)...so increasing the chances. 3 GK: Turner, Steffen, X 4 CB: Richards, Zimmerman, X, X 4 FB: Dest, Robinson, X, X 2 DM: Adams, Acosta 3 CM: McKennie, Musah, LDLT 5 W: Pulisic, Weah, Reyna, Aaronson, Morris, 5 F: Jesus, Pepi, Pefok, Vazquez, Dike
I agree that Gregg should bring 5 forwards to September camp, even if that's too many for them to all get games, at least the coaching staff will get a good look at their best five candidates for the three World Cup roster spots.