I usually do a best 23 midyear, but I'm adding a rankings element to it this year. Here's the thought process behind the rankings and best 23: Good chance any questions will be answered here. I will be releasing top 20 rankings for '03, '04, '05, '06, and '07 and best 23 roster for each year. All those years I've seen all or very close to all the best players play. For top 20, I will also include a "barely missed" category, which is exactly what it sounds like. It will be based on tiers. For older age groups, I have things narrowed down, so likely less in those categories. Younger age groups, more unpredictable, so likely bigger group. Barely missed will encompass players I judge to be in same tier as last few of the numerical ranking. Best 23 is also exactly what it sounds like. I will release what players I would select for a best 23 roster for each year. For '08, I have not seen all the best players. I have only seen ones that have played in U-15's this season. Won't be all of best ones. Likely around 50%. Thats why I'm limiting it to top 10 and "barely missed" category for players I've seen play. Not true ranking of best 08's, more list of a players I rate. Also will list best 23 for 08's I've seen play. For other age groups if player isn't listed, likely not rated at that level. This will all be based on who I believe are the best prospects. Current ability included, potential, and game to game performance level. I speak to other people daily about players, so there's some outside influence on my opinions, but each opinion is my own independent one. My opinion should not be viewed as any more or less than one person's opinion. I will be listing the club teams that are last publicly known for each player. Most players are still at the same club, but some aren't. This is the easiest way to go about it. I have seen almost all listed play in last 12 months, but a few I haven't due to unavailability of footage, injuries, or other reasons. Every player listed I have seen play no less than one start. Most many times. The more viewings the more comfortable I am with my assessment. This list will be done from scratch. While my prior opinions are not discarded from my thought process, I won't use any prior list to create this one. I try to take newer information into account more than older information, but won't completely discount older information. This will be my last ranking of '03. I can't keep close track of more than 5 age groups at once, so they will be graduating. I will still watch some of them play and tweeting about them, so you can still follow along for that. The other age groups will next be ranked in December. One addition to the explanation. If you are wondering why a notable name in Europe isn’t listed, I probably haven’t seen them play. Harder to get footage of players not playing domestically.
No room for Diego Kochen? He's arguably the best keeper in the whole system. At least I'd argue that.
Thanks so much for putting the effort in, as always! My uninformed questions: - Looking through this list I feel pretty good in the long term about 8s, 10s, Wingers, RBs, CBs, GKs, even 6s. I’m most nervous about LB, other than JoGo it doesn’t look like we have a LB with big potential that can break in before 2026, at least as ARob’s backup (usurping Bello)? - What makes you think Edelman will be a CM instead of DM long term? - What makes you rank Rokas Pukstas, Juan Castilla, and Caleb Wiley pretty low amongst the 04s? - Why did Haroun Conteh, and Emi Ochoa fall significantly in the 05s, was it just new guys emerging? - iirc you said Pedro Soma would be one of the top 06s if he consistently played at the level we saw during the U17 friendlies, are you ranking mainly from that impression or have you seen more of him since? Also I thought he was more of a DM long term?
First off, major props to you for spending the time to put this out there. Fun stuff! That said, if I were starting a team I would take Cowell over Clark any day of the week. It's not even close IMHO - is Clark a little more technical? Yes, but its not like he is all the great in the respect either...I've watched enough. Cowell has intangibles you just can't teach which Clark has no chance of learning. The love of Clark on this site is starting to give me Carleton vibes. LOL
I don’t think he’s as great as some do. He’d be within the next 2-3 goalkeepers, so most likely he’d be like top 40 or so, but I think one of his appearances for the US U-17’s in particular against Argentina is getting him a little overrated. That game matters, but he’s a pretty generic goalie without any great tools. He’s also average height or even below that, which I thought you’ve stated before you don’t like. I don’t even necessarily disagree with that principle either that it takes a real elite talent in other areas to make up for lack of height for a goalkeeper. One other aspect I think might be getting overlooked or misinterpreted is where he stands at Barcelona. I’ve seen a big deal made recently that he was promoted for preseason training to the reserve team. While being promoted cannot be a bad thing and a more permanent promotion should merit praise, I’d be careful about making too much of this. I’m not saying you’ve done so, but I think some are. What I’ve read from Barcelona fans is that they prefer the other goalie in his age group. That guy is talked about as a future first team player, while I rarely see Kochen mentioned to the same degree. We don’t know all the circumstances surrounding the club. Older goalies could be injured, the other goalie could be injured, they could need an extra body or two for a few days. My overarching point is that this is starting to remind me a little of Nick Taitague at Schalke where his situation was misinterpreted as being rated highly by the club when he wasn’t. Eventually we saw he never got a first team contract like McKennie and Wright. Injuries contributed, but it’s hard to read tee leaves of how players are rated at foreign clubs, and I think that may be what’s happening with Kochen. Watching him play and the assessing the tools, he’s good, but I’m not seeing how he’s a future star. I could also be the one whose wrong. It’s hard to know.
Agreed about the lack of LB’s, which is why I think that JoGo is probably the most irreplaceable prospect in the pool, even more so than Pepi. Some strikers will emerge. I’m less convinced about LB’s. It’s a big weakness worldwide. There are more right footed players than left, so I think that’s something all of us should see coming. Luis Rivera is the next LB I’m very excited about, but he doesn’t turn 15 until December, so even 2026 could he too early. Brian Alanis could come good, but I’m not sure yet how his game will translate to pro soccer. I think Edelman is one of those utility midfield players. He could be used a 6, but I’d feel more comfortable with him as an 8. Between his average size, slightly below average speed, and tendency to dive in a little too often, I think he has use to a team but I think he could be prone to struggling the higher the level of competition. I view him as like a Roldan/McCarty type of midfielder eventually. Pukstas wasn’t that far off being listed. I’d say he’s more of a top 30-35 ‘04, which is still good. We have more than 20-25 good players. Castilla is a tough one because I did up his ranking like 10 spots from December. I think consensus is that he’s rising, but I’m not ready to elevate him more than that. I still want to see more. I have some reservations about his defensive game/athletic profile. Wiley I also upped a few spots from December mostly due to that he’s getting MLS minutes and that’s not nothing, but I find that he’s struggling significantly and while he’s highly athletic with some technique, which is intriguing, there are major deficits in his game. Conteh I didn’t know where to place. I saw him play as recently as October, so I didn’t want to not list a player I rate because he’s went into abyss for half a year. Given I don’t know where he’s went I’m less confident though about him panning out. Ochoa definitely fell on the list. I think it’s close as to the best ‘05 GK between Ochoa, Nelson, and Beavers, but I think Ochoa has went from an above average top GK in an age group to potentially not even the best, or if he’s the best it’s not by much and not because others have made huge gains. I’m not seeing enough development with playing more in control and commanding his area more consistently. The U-17 season is about the age where I think development in that area should be expected and the young GK prospect excuse doesn’t apply as much anymore. I’m only ranking Somo on two games I’ve seen him play for the US U-17’s. That’s one of the rankings I’m not as confident about because I’ve seen less of him. I’m not sure Somo has the foot speed to be a 6, and I think he’s pretty talented offensively, so I’d say more of an 8, but admittedly that’s one I’m not as confident about.
As hard as it may be to believe, I don’t think there’s a big gap between Clark and Cowell. I think 2003 is one of those years where there’s a lot of talented prospects that are all at a similar level. Some will pan out and some won’t. I’d say that extends from about 5/6 to about 25. The first 4/5 I’m more confident about panning out as very good players. After that I think there are a bunch of talented players that I could make an argument for in a lot of different orders.
I'm surprised you think there's a lot of Clark love on this site. Perhaps a lot of Cowell bashing, but I can't recall anyone being overly thrilled with Clark over the past 6 months.
I rated him as the highest potential youth keeper before he was promoted. Ahead of Slonina and way ahead of the rest. Barcelona bringing him to the B team ahead of multiple older kids just confirms that for me. I believe that he also captained his youth team what would be strange if coaches were rating him below another keeper from that team. I don't care what posters say as that's an echo chamber. you say with authority that your boy is better than Messi and everybody is clapping and screaming "yea". Taitague was rated very high, he just got injury that never properly healed.
I just see people posting wondering why he isn't getting minutes because they think he's so good. Maybe I missed some. That said, he always ends near the top of these kinds of lists. I just don't see it. Ok, all that said, being hyper critical here as obviously the kid is a great player compared to most...but to make it at the top levels of the pros, I just don't see the tool set...I could see Cade making it though, his combo of strength and speed are hard to find. Still early though for Clark and I hope he proves me wrong.
@ussoccer97531 has always been a Nyeman stan. That particular competition is all in front of us. Nyeman needs to stay healthy and play. We'll have to see what Paredes does in Germany. He doesn't actually have that much of a resume yet. When it comes to Clark there was a lot hype and then he scored some early goals for NYRB. Then the sale to Europe led to an increase in hype. Probably beyond the level of ability he was actually showing. Kinda...................Justin Che-like in that regard. Some people immediately shoot these kids that do get sold to the top of their rankings. Or have Malick Sanogo automatically ahead of domestic players. This when they barely have seen Sanogo kick a ball in anger. Oh, he's at the 5th place finisher in the Bundesliga..............he must be better than Quinn Sullivan. That's not what my eyeballs tell me. Not close. At least right now. When it comes to my own "Clint Eastwood Rankings," performance against adult professionals jumps a kid up the list. So, I for instance, would have Gabe Slonina higher up on my list. Not because he's likely to be sold to Europe. But because his floor is already "solid MLS player." There aren't questions about that floor. I'm confident of that. So I personally would have him higher than Deswnup of RSL, because I don't know what he's going to do as a pro at all yet. So I personally would also have Cade Cowell higher on my list of 03s as well.
Agree. Ratings are inherently subjective. Everybody is going to have their favorites (respect to OP for doing this and respect his opinions, but he has always had favorites where his opinion is more or less set in stone and nothing will change it) and value different skills relative to other skills, but personally I am bigger believer in what have you accomplished on the field and at what level. It is definitely possible that a player playing in college is going to have a huge leap in development and really refine raw tools and develop in an MLS All-Star wqhile it is certainly possible that an 19 year player in MLS is going to stagnant and not get much better. But hard to see a list that goes: 12) Paxten Aaronson - CONCACAF U20 MVP, 800 MLS minutes with 3 goals, being scouted by lots of teams in Europe. 13) Elton Chifamba - Rotational player for Clemson as FR. Bunch more college players 20) Cade Cowell - Already played 3000+ MLS minutes with 7 goals and 11 assists. U20 US Starter. Seems like his floor is already pretty good MLS player.
@ussoccer97531 says he includes current ability, potential, and game to game performance level in his rankings. So it all depends how an individual balances potential versus current output. He clearly scores "potential" higher in his metric higher than I do. You can't rank Jalen Neal that high on your list otherwise. He's played 4 first team professional minutes (in the USOC). My rankings thus shift from week to week in my head. So with every game he plays, McGlynn moves up my rankings. Despite my concerns, he just keeps proving himself. Anyway, when I started being a fan these lists were easy to write. You had many fewer prospects to consider. The pool keeps growing and growing, and of course there's a lot of fluidity. Players are bubbling up and down.
The rankings would vary so wildly based on what exactly it is we're trying to define. Are we talking 95th percentile "pure potential", 50th percentile "most likely outcome"? Something in between? The problem is if you do 50th percentile, the answer is probably incredibly boring. Just pick the kid who is playing at the highest level for each age group. The problem with 95th is you get some insane subjectivity, like putting kids who have never gotten real minutes above u17 towards the top of the 05 rankings, while leaving someone getting MLS minutes off.
It struck me that what we need is a way to compile different rankings (individuals, websites like TDS, etc.) and collate them into an average, like what fantasy football does with Average Draft Position (ADP).
Clearly. I think you have to be able to reevaluate a players potential especially as the players mature and be willing to rapidly discount the chances of hitting the higher end of their potential and focus more on what are the showing in games against adults. We are talking about 18/19 year olds with the 2003. It would be different if they were 15-16 year olds playing against kids where potential should clearly bethe most important criteria. A lot of developmental runway left and bodies that are still maturing. A player might have a lot of potential as a 16-17 year old, but if they are playing college soccer as a 19 year old and are not slower developing positions like GK or CB then they likely: 1) Never had that much potential 2) Are incredible unlikely to maximize it if they did At some point the they had a ton of potential as a 16 year old, so they still have as much potential as a college soccer player at 19 doesn't hold much weight anymore.
I suspect ussoccer is ranking based on his view of their ceilings. I mean, Obed Vargas literally played in a CONCACAF Champions League Final for Seattle. He's an MLS regular. He's not in the top 20 of the 2005s in ussoccer's rankings. Obed Vargas' first team performance level in MLS, despite perceived shortcomings......................has to come into my personal rankings. To some degree the proof is in the pudding. I don't criticize ussoccer's ranking because this is completely subjective. To each his own. I would bet you that Obed Vargas has a better career than 75% of the players on that 2005 list. I bet he's already played more first team professional soccer games than a number of them These are lists where there's a 100% chance you're going to be mostly wrong. Its just part of the deal. I'm sure we can go back and find a list of best prospects born in 1992. I can assure you guys like Aaron Long and Victor Ulloa weren't on the list. Victor Ulloa has now played 250 MLS games. He was probably not even ranked in the top 3 1992s at FC Dallas. Ruben Luna, Moises Hernandez, Bryan Leyva, etc. etc. So we get it. I just take into account ACTUAL first team performance more than others. The impact of others at high level is all hypothetical. A guy like Vargas is actually doing it already. I mean, who the hell has actually seen Kristian Fletcher player a game that mattered?
I'm not sure how much Clark you've watched, but I'm gonna guess it's more from this year and not as much from previous years. One thing that affects people's perception of Clark here is that most of his viewership has been in MLS, and people usually stick to their opinions for a while before switching based on new info. Clark scored a lot of goals in MLS, and a lot of people like that. Typically, we would've seen him with his contemporaries earlier with the U20s, but COVID has prevented that. Personally, I find it a lot easier to rate our youth players when seeing them all on a field together. I think if we had more Clark with the U20s earlier, people would have a more negative opinion of him (as would Leipzig, perhaps). But it seems like people are slowly becoming more negative on him, including myself. I enjoy watching our youth players in MLS, but as a complete amateur in the world of scouting, I typically have close to 0 idea how a player will project in the pro game based on his MLS minutes. It's just a lot harder to compare. Once they start to play really well, like Aaronson a couple years ago, it's easy to tell, but before that I don't find it too easy. Even with Adams, it was never fully apparent that he was going to succeed in Europe until he did very quickly with Leipzig. With the U20s, it's really quickly apparent within a few minutes how everyone compares to each other as prospects.
How? Did Nyeman get a lot worse while being injured? A lot of people like to forget about injured players easily and then they discount their ability. Nyeman is very good and has been injured for a while. Injuries aren’t insignificant, especially if they turn into a year plus ordeal, like they have for Nyeman, but it seems like a bunch of people have decided to revise history about Nyeman’s ability.