I find it amusing so many commentators say ManC have it 99.9%+ in the bag. The basic stats show they have drawn or lost 9/37 this season - that's about 24%. Our win rate is 26/36 - about 72%. So the very basic maths* shows our chances of winning both matches and a ManC draw/loss = 72% x 72% x 24% = 12%. It's certainly not 0.1% as so many say. * does not account for opponents or H/A. It ain't over until the fat lady sings ....... YNWA a million times out of a million 'Could win 55-0' - Paul Merson makes brutal Liverpool title claim ahead of Southampton - Liverpool Echo
Numbers aside it would be truly magical if we won out and Stevie somehow engineered a result to give us the title.
12% seems about right to me .... and I'm feeling like a guy staring at Clint Eastwood with a gun pointed at me this week.....
Villa play Wed night and then Sunday. We just need them to keep City Honest like West Ham did & not fold like the others. I think Gerrard will ensure they do.
My gut feeling before doing any maths was 10% to win the Premiership and 5% for the quad (taking CL as 50:50). Which it turns out is probably about right.
Another variable that you must include is that it’s been 2(?) years since City dropped points in consecutive games.
I really don't think such statistics are relevant..its a one off..anything can happen..and not dropping points in consecutive games can't be an indicator to a title decider at home on the last day of the Season. THEY WILL DROP POINTS...BELIEVE
they play on Thursday - no PL games on Wednesday. as Klopp said today, they are not used to games so close together. I hope Stevie holds back his starters for Sunday, and plays the U12s vs Burnley so they can get 2 points and push the Bitters into relegation.
If only we would've converted 1 draw to a win this season, we'd be in the driver's seat. I know there's plenty to discuss (Brentford/Brighton/Arsenal) but the last one vs Spurs at Anfield that stings the most as we've been in unstoppable form. It's all sliding doors and such just like last season's Alisson goal propelled us into the top 4. Still we need a miracle on Sunday. I live with hope but even if we don't win the EPL, this season has been the greatest journey ever for me as a fan.
What is it the financial mavens tell us? “Past performance cannot be used to reliably predict future performance”, right? Well let’s plough ahead regardless. In the last 8 meetings between City and Villa, City have outscored Villa either 25-3 or 25-8 (can’t remember or find stat again). Which means if future performance is influenced by past performance, it’ll be 3-0, 3-1 on Sunday.
They needed a 92nd minute winner to beat an already relegated QPR the last time they were in a similar situation...
A readily available lead up to that could then be that they are 2-1 up with 10 minutes to go. Often they would get a third. Then, (and only then) the thing which would be different to this game portion of this trend as a comparison will be their nervousness to just get over the line, that and a cobbled together defence......
So things just improved a little. Probability of Premiership win 17% Probability of CL win 50% Probability of Quadruple 8.5%
Fivethirtyeight figure we have a 66% chance at winning the CL final, and a 18% chance for the Premiership win... which would be almost a 12% chance... bigger odds have been overcome before.
They went down 1-0 to Brighton in 2019 then turned it around quite easily. 2014 they had to lose in order for us to win the league, a lot less pressure than just dropping points after having dropped two points and blown an almost unassailable lead in the CL.
between April 2017 and April 2022 we played 144 PL games (same as MC). We lost 15 games. City lost 22.
Phil will score 3 and Ings will score 2 for a 5-4 win. If they do we'll let them and Stevie on the bus for the parade