The coming boom in multi-eligible player recruitment

Berhalter on dual national recruiting

https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/berhalter-addresses-dual-national-recruiting-as-mexico-eye-mendez

 

I would be shocked if it was Gressel. I actually wouldn't take a +1000 bet on Gressel. Maybe not even +2000. My bet is for Balogun, but not particularly confident in that (maybe would take it at +400 though). But what do I know, maybe I'll eat my words!

 

Well, I initially ignored or forgot the caveat of the player being young, so that would exponentially reduce the chances it was Gressel, and no he wouldn't be my guess now either. Otherwise it lined up well.

 

Yeah fair, maybe he eventually gets a Camp Cupcake cap or two but otherwise I don't see him ever being a factor. Genuinely would like to see Balogun the most of all the options just because the position he plays, upside he (may?) has, age, and dual. I believe in him more than Tillman, for whatever reason, even though he's still so unproven against adults.

 

We were trying to guess who it'll be for Berhalter. Gressel fits his system & Gregg's far from averse to new domestic options that pop up.

I'd certainly hope that Gressel wouldn't block Scally. In Gregg's mind, it's plausible, though I think part of Scally's inclusion was the timing since it was wcq'ing. Now I'd hope there's a relatively new slate with games of little importance.

But beyond Scally & Dest, Gressel may have as good of a case as anyone. FWIW, he was better than Cannon & Yedlin in MLS.

I think I'm agnostic as to who's better between Balogun & Malik Tillman. Individually, I guess I'd rather it be Balogun, because he's proven more, but neither would be getting the call if not for the dual threat.

Actually the player in the conversation who's maybe proven the most is Tim Tillman. And we could use another 8. He also could lure Malik in a packaged deal. So I think that's what I'm hoping for.

 

Since Malick and Balogun have sorta planted their stakes in the ground for now, I'm thinking Tim Tillman is the most likely.

 

He’s saying the right things. Can’t do any more than that and put in the work to try to recruit these players. That’s one area I don’t think you can criticize him for. His recruiting has been excellent.

 

Enjoy Berhalter's overall positive schtick while throwing in some good ol' negative recruiting. Has some specific mentions of players who are being wooed by multiple nations. Clearly took a seminar or two from a college football coach and absorbed the lessons well.

 

It's interesting that he talks about Gomez like he's someone whose already in the fold.

 

I read this more as a classic recruiting tactic -- you look at the mentions of both Gomez and Slonina, he's clearly telling them they have a chance to compete their way in. He then throws in that message about El Tri doing predatory caps to compare and contrast; he's essentially saying "I let everyone compete to get their spots, Tata just hoards talent."

 

Araujo. Wouldn’t think twice about it.

 

Seems that the two biggest factories before Philly came along have divided along MLS team lines. LAG players going Mexico and FCD players going for the US. Likely feel comfortable with those national teams with a lot of current and former teammates there. Doesn't mean it will continue but bodes well for Gomez to go with the US to be with Pepi, McKennie, Cannon, Ferreira etc. US team needs to figure out what they're doing wrong in S Cal.

 

JJ Macias?

 

Is he actually eligible for the USMNT? I don’t think that was ever confirmed.

 

I actually have no idea. I don't even particularly think that highly of him, but I've been down on Araujo, and I'd rather have Reynolds at this point, anyway. For Macias, at least I can see a way that he could possibly fill a role.

 

After some credible press reports about USMNT approaches, Macias denied he had access to a US passport.

 

I do find it amusing the Martino isn't happy that Flores said he'd go with the team that takes him to the World Cup. Given that Mexico is all about locking players up and likes to dangle the World Cup in front of guys when they're trying to get them to commit.

 

Shrug. I give these young Mexican-American players (and Flores) more credit than others. They see exactly what Mexico and Martino are doing. All of these guys have an affinity for Mexico based on their heritage, so they accept invitations to these non-binding camps. They see who is called up when the games actually matter. This is about opportunity for most of them.

But note the only ones who permanently cap-tied themselves to Mexico recently have INDEED been called up to meaningful games. Efrain Alvarez and Julian Araujo.

There are to this day actually very few players who represented both the US and Mexico in senior games. Four in history? Martin Vasquez and Edgar Castillo went Mexico to US. Araujo and now Jonathan Gomez. And we still have a good shot to retain Gomez.

There's this perception that its a lot higher in number than four. Kids TEND to stick with the team that they represented at the youth levels (like Ricardo Pepi), which is why the competition for them is fierce. David Ochoa is one that switched, but he's not good enough at the moment for either nation. He's young, though. He could be playing for Mexico in the next round of Olympic qualifying. [Never actually played for the US at the senior level, though.]

As I've said, I don't think we've ever lost a dual-national recruit to Mexico that would have "made a difference" for the USMNT. Could Julian Araujo play for the USMNT? Sure. Our starter plays for Barcelona. If we lose Jonathan Gomez to Mexico, what would that mean? Do people think the USMNT would make it farther in the World Cup with Gomez than Robinson? Antonee Robinson will be in the Premier League again next season, and many think he was our best player over the whole course of qualifying.

Anyway, I just think this whole thing is overblown. The kids know what's going on. I also think its funny that posters criticize Martino for poaching talent, while at the same time urging Berhalter to poach Balogun, Tillman, etc. Its just the way of the soccer world folks.

 

They've been called up, but how much of an opportunity have they really gotten. Alvarez played a total of 79 minutes in the Gold Cup last year and has not gotten a call up since.

Julian Araujo has played 22 minutes in one qualifier and is not projected to be on the Mexico World Cup squad. Had he picked the US he would have played much more than that in qualifying. Now of course he picked Mexico because that's where he felt the most comfortable and where he wanted to play. As one should.

But neither of these guys are getting the same level of opportunity that they would get with the US and with someone like Alvarez he was probably better off waiting to commit either way.

Our starter plays for Barcelona but is often injured. Indeed in a do or die qualifier against Panama we ended up starting Shaq Moore from the Spanish second division. And this is no knock on Moore, but if Araujo had picked the US he would have definitely played. Berhalter wanted him in the camp in the first two windows before he picked Mexico and he wanted him on the Gold Cup roster instead of Moore.

Jedi is obviously better than Gomez currently. But we also don't have a backup at left back that Berhalter trusts. What happens if Jedi gets hurt and can't play? Maybe the answer is Gomez or maybe it's someone else, but he's a great prospect who may very well have a big role to play on our team going forward.

There's a difference between pursuing a predatory cap tie the way Mexico seems to be doing it versus Berhalter's approach of bringing guys in and letting them know exactly where they stand. I don't think Balogun or Tillman should be offered a World Cup spot or anything else in order to get them to commit. But that's different from calling them into a camp and giving them an honest assessment of where they stand in the depth chart. And if a player wants to commit that's entirely on them.

It's also a bit of a different situation with England and Germany both being some of the most talented teams in the world and harder to break into than the USMNT. Versus the US and Mexico being roughly equal in terms of their level.

Meanwhile Mexico is just trying to lock guys in for the sake of it. Alex Mendez being a great example. He's not quite good enough for either national team at current. To play for Mexico he'd have to file a one time switch (which Mexico is pushing him to do). It's not at all in his interest to make a decision either way right now.

The problem isn't that either country is pursuing dual nationals, it's how they are going about it getting guys to commit.

 

Bingo.

People who don't think there is predatory recruiting going on here are a little naive.

 

And so what?
I give the kids and their families more credit than that.
I have no idea what "predatory recruiting" even means. All of these kids are accepting these callups. It seems to me that "predatory recruiting" is the same thing as just.............recruiting. I guess when its a rival its seen as "predatory."

 

I've followed recruiting for years across a ton of sports. Kids are easily dazzled by false promises and hype, by status over what might be best for them. By short term gains over long term.

Are all of them? No. But these aren't people with a ton of experience, and often their parents don't know how to navigate these waters, either.

You can give all the credit you want; many of these kids will make sub-optimal choices for bad reasons -- again, things like false promises, or short term status. It happens everywhere, and there's no reason to believe every kid and every family are prepared to handle this. Because literally the whole of human history says that many will not be.

Predatory recruiting is simple. It's giving false promises or false implications. For example, a coach may know the chances of a player going to the World Cup based on his skill is less than 1%, but he'll tell him he'll get a chance to compete and he's got the skill. But he knows the chances of the player progressing enough are very small and he's not clear about that.

It's cap-tying a player when you haven't been clear about where they really stand in your plans, when you have no intention of playing them anytime soon or ever, you just want to keep options open for YOU, but not for the player.

This isn't a case of the other side being called predatory and we're angels. But it's very clear that while he's recruiting -- and this is part of the pitch no doubt, the angle -- Berhalter wants players to make the right choice for them. Again, that's part of his pitch ... but it's better for the player.

Gonzalez, Araujo, Alvarez might not all have been predatory ... but they scream of it.

Get them in, cap tie them, discard them. You're telling me that Tata couldn't tell Efrain Alvarez wasn't going to contribute before he gave him 79' in the first two games of the Gold Cup then didn't even play him the rest of the tourney?

He was locking him in in case he developed. Araujo never got a fair crack at RB, either, despite most of the Mexico RBs sucking. Ochoa ain't going to see the light of day ... they will look at him maybe for 2026.

I don't think anyone but Araujo had a chance at 2022 for the US, either, and we'll never know what was said.

But from the actions we can see ...it sure as hell doesn't seem like Mexico intended to give any of these guys a fair shot. Ochoa, I understand -- they have a number of vet and mid-20s keepers. He was never going to be in play for 2022.

But from Jon Gonzalez to Araujo to Alvarez to even Ochoa ... you wonder what was said.

Contrast that to Tyler Boyd. Five Hundred plus minutes -- Gold Cup PLUS Nations League. He didn't end up winning a spot but he absolutely had an opening and a shot.

Mark McKenzie. Or Nico Gioacchini. He's played 251 minutes for the US, and in sharp contrast to Alvarez ... he played in every game in the Gold Cup. Does Nico feel like a commit and stash? Or someone who has been in three camps and played in every game of a Gold Cup? And Sebastian Soto wasn't even called in for the Gold Cup, when he could have been cap-tied.

Recruiting is always selling, but there's a line between positioning and selling and straight out deception. Do I know Mexico is doing the latter? No, but the pattern is one that implies that none of these players had much of a shot (except maybe Araujo).

We seem to do it right, or as right as you can get it.