News: 2022 - DCU Club Discussion and Analysis

I think there is less trolling than resigned frustration in that comment. Flores simply hasn't had the impact, at all, that one expects of a DP regardless of price. He showed much better in WCQ than he pretty much ever has for us. I suspect a significant factor may be that he is playing down to our overall level.....

 

WRT Flores, it's really becoming a case of, is he the right horse for the course. On that question, it's debatable if he ever fit what Ben was trying to do (which was perhaps nothing) before Ben got fired. He was also injured for much of that time. I don't think he fits Losada's system but has to play because of his price tag and not many/any better options. I am not sure we'd be happy with him if were making $400k either. But he's stuck here because of his price. No one is going to take him without us subsidizing his salary and my guess is that that's a no go with Levien & Co.

 

Goals and assist for Peru do not show up on United's stat sheet.

Oh and I am trolling Flores not you guys.

 

Not DCU related but. As you know we are in Italy. Tonight after finally getting the luggage that Air France juggled for the past 4 days, we went to our favorite restaurant in Lucca Mind you we haven’t been there for 3 years. We walk in, wearing masks and the owner says to my wife “welcome back signora, we still have your favorite wine from Elba.” Just gobsmacked. What a great country.

 

So basically the coming game against Austin, to me, is a season defining game. We've lost 2 games at home, and if we lose 3, we are on the precipice of playoff elimination. How many teams have gotten into the playoffs with 5 or more losses at home? 13 teams since 2008, and a majority only had 5 losses. If we're sitting at 3 losses at home with 13 more home games after that, it doesn't seem likely to me that this team will win out, or win and draw out the rest of the season. Teams that lost 5 or more games had to really dish it out on the road, and it's not common. When teams with 5 or more homegame losses did make the playoffs they're usually in by the skin of their teeth (e.g., Portland and LA by 2 points in 2019; Montreal by 3 in 2016; New England by 2 in 2013) or in the rare case are exceptional on the road relative to everyone else (e.g., Seattle 2018). Sitting on 3 away losses would actually be a 'who cares' but 3 home losses? We won't get to the Summer transfer at this rate.

It's not just the obvious "well, yea, it's easier to win at home" argument here either. MLS by virtue of it's crappy playoff system prioritizes home games over away games in a way other leagues don't. Teams that make the playoffs consistently perform very well at home, and don't have to worry about away matches. Playoff teams are more likely to win 5 or less away games than 6 or more. In 2020 only 3 teams won more than 5 away games. We made the playoffs in 2018 with a record of 1-9-7.

 

With the loss of Paredes, I think that Najar is literally the only player on this team that can beat his opponent on the dribble. There is no other player capable of forcing a double team and unbalancing an opposing defense.

Opponents are recognizing that our only attacking threats are Najar and Gressel. So, they launch most of their attacks on that side of the field. This forces Najar and Gressel into more defensive positions, retreating to defend forces them to expend more energy, and the opponents hope to exploit space on that right flank vacated when Najar and Gressel push forward in to the attack.

To be fair, our back line has done a good job at recognizing when Najar and Gressel push forward. Overall, they have been able to adjust their shape and cover the space. We have not conceded a lot of goals in transition.

The rest of the attack really needs to get better and this will free Najar and Gressel. Unfortunately, we get very little from the left side of our attack and we get very little from the central midfield. There is no chemistry in the final 1/3, as we can barely connect two passes in that area of the field. We have no players in the center of the field (midfield or withdrawn attacking areas) that possess better than average passing vision or creativity to unlock or unbalance a defense.

Right now, if Najar and Gressel are neutralized, we are forced to rely on opportunities through direct attacks created from turnovers off the press. However, our press has been haphazard and poorly orchestrated this year and the lines do not work together to block passing lanes. As a result, it is often too easy for the opposition to escape the press.

For me, right now this team is worse than last year. Other than the back line and dmids, they do not play as a team. I hope that we will see some improvement or tactical adjustment coming out of this week off.

 

This may be changing, but we seem to be content to play with defensive-minded central midfielders, so it's no wonder that our attacks come from the outside (e.g., Najar and Gressel from the right; Smith from the left). Durkin and Djeffal do seem inclined to move into threatening positions, so maybe things will look up as the season progresses.

 

Taxi will presumably be an attacking player, but it's not clear where he will line up and whether he will be any good. We can always hope...

 

This is, I think, part of last season's design, and fine as far as it goes. And as noted by dcu n bntwn, other teams are keeping us busy, meaning forcing us deeper, which is what we did to other teams last season. I'm not sure why we are messing with the secret sauce here, in terms of a 343 with threatening WFs and wingbacks, and play running through the wings and channels.

The main problem this year is our lack of danger in high pressing moments. We owned those situations last season. This year, not so much. Sometimes that's because we aren't pressing with three across the front. The counter to this general system is the long ball (forcing us to defend deeper), and we're seeing that more and more. That means we have to be more energetic up top and better at winning free balls in the back, especially in the air. Unfortunately, that is not a strength of two of our three starting CBs. Durkin and Djeffal add height we can use in spots, but we're still going to have to work harder and smarter if we want to continue to have our outside CBs play as slash-eights. From here on out, that might be just a tactic rather than a strategy.

So, what happens if we go back to a 343 that looks like this?

Najar - Kamara - Taxi
Smith - Djeffal - Canouse - Gressel
Hines-Ike - Birnbaum - Durkin
Hamid

Durkin has the height, vision, range and ability on the ball perfect for this kind of CB. If we're worried about his defensive positioning, play Pines here and move Durkin into midfield. Najar's played high on the wing and gives us the kind of danger Paredes did last year, but now with Smith, a more capable crosser, doing the dirty work on the outside. In short, I liked the system we used last year, even if it didn't have a traditional 10. It was pretty effective. We seem to have come to the conclusion that the poor performances at the end of last year were the result of other teams figuring out the system. That may be true in part, but we were just beat, and we looked it. Stick with the one-what-brung-us, in terms of the formation. Tweak the personnel and tactics. Be hard to play against and use your subs.

 

excellent tactical breakdown @GumbyG

 

MLSoccer.com has a long article on Jesse Marsch, who has done very well since taking over from Bielsa at Leeds. Here's an interesting quote from him: "Leeds players were overtrained, and training methods led to injuries. Players were physically, emotionally, and psychologically in a difficult place to recover from week to week, game to game." Hmmm - perhaps Losada should pick up the phone and give Jesse a call....

 

Taxi is available this weekend.

https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/taxi-fountas-available-for-dc-united-debut-this-weekend

 

Let's hope he is game fit - its been some weeks since he last played although he was transfered while still in season. I would expect he gets a 75th minute sub...

[I know the league typically doesn't talk about contract terms but still, it strikes me as silly that an official MLS spokeshole, reporting on MLS' own website, is reduced to quoting Goffinho/an outside entity regarding transfer details rather than the people he works for...but hey, that's why we love MLS. Right?)

 

love is one of the 4-letter words that come to mind when thinking about MLS salaries and information.

 

Most if not all of those guys writing for the MLS site are 3rd party freelance gig workers. Like Charles Boehm has a main gig as a sports editor for the Washington City Paper.

 

[and - Let's hope he's game fit]

probably not game fit, but probably in at 70-75 minute mark

I don't expect a big splash right away - It would be nice to see how he pairs with either Ola or Estada, but all of these guys need service - Are ANY of them known for their assists to other Forwards?

I'm hoping something comes of this by mid-May

 

In MLS there are no season defining games in early mid-April.
Obviously it would be not great if we keep dropping points at home.
Half of the teams make the playoffs, right? Would be great to get a win, but you're making too much of a single game at this point in the season. The problem isn't our home record, it's how poor the team looks, especially in the attack.

 

Sure there are, shammy has the receipts about how early season success translates to the playoffs.

Thx,

Jay!

 

Sure there are, the league PR machine just doesn't ramp up until fall to tell you that April didn't matter.

The concept that DCU's home stadium is a scary place to come and play is totally gone for the entire year (if it ever existed at all, tbh), which will impact playoffs if they manage to get a game there.

 

I disagree. I'm not saying it will be good if they lose or that Audi Field is a challenging place to play right now. It has nothing to do with the PR machine and all to do with the fact that 7 teams make the playoffs.

All I'm saying is that they might be 2-5 points out of a playoff position (with a game in hand) and with 28 games to go after this weekend. It's possible to make that gap up. Period. It's not good in the standings. It's not a good sign of things to come if we can't beat Austin at home after a week of rest. Losing won't make things easier. But it's also not season-defining no matter what any stats from previous years say.

 

So, another travel story. My wife and I walk up to another favorite haunt and I wave to the waiter who looks familiar. He waves back. We sit down and he comes over and I ask “we’re you here 3 years ago?” He says nice to see you again. Later he comes by and says it seems like you were here last year. I feel the same walking around Lucca. ******** Covid and all it took from all of us. Two lost years that none of us can get back.

 

We did a thing.

DC United sign midfielder Jackson Hopkins as homegrown player

Thx,

Jay!

 

[negative nelly rant]:

Well it certainly doesn't help that the folks in the supporters stand, in spite of their opinion of themselves, are pathetically now just frivolous but witting window dressing for the FO's (lack-of) Advertising Department and have zero impact on the game/opposing team.

At the concrete spalling Raccoon Nest on the banks of the Mighty Anacostia, even when we truly sucked and couldn't intimidate a wet paper bag for more than 10 years, at least the drunks on the bouncy side and some of us behind the north goal could effectively distract players.

Now, meh, opponents are probably more scared of their own shadow than the environment of Eagle Bank Arena East (except for maybe falling handrails).

[end rant]

Over the last 10 years (not counting that lovable but quirky 2020 with only 23 games) it typically takes a minimum of 48 points to qualify for the playoofs (details below). The early games really do make a difference as it normally just gets harder later on as injuries, call ups and card accumulation take their toll. And as we saw last year (and even in '17 with Rooney), mid- to late-season rallies all too easily sputter out for us.... Yes, with 28 games to go don't panic (is 42 the answer?) but the longer we wait the less likely it is to win 14 more.

Lowest Playoof Qualifying Point Total
Year Games East West Avg
2021 34 48 48 48
2020 23 24 30 27
2019 34 45 48 46.5
2018 34 50 49 49.5
2017 34 50 49 49.5
2016 34 42 46 44
2015 34 49 51 50
2014 34 49 50 49.5
2013 34 49 51 50
2012 34 53 43 48
2011 34 46 49 47.5
average 48.1 48.4
median 49 49

[ETA: man, I spent a lot of my boss' time formatting the table to be readable but it didnt take after clicking "post reply" - sorry about that.)

Interestingly, this might also indicate the West is the generally stronger conference as it is more difficult qualify from the West (7 out of 11 years the West required more points to qualify; only 1 year was tied) and the delta between the qualifying minimum total points is usually greater when the West has the higher total (except what the heck happened in 2012?).

Playoff eligibility format seems to have been pretty stable since 2011; comparison to periods before that is difficult due to varying numbers of games played, conference alignment/divisions, and use of an overall table qualifying format.