Pre-match: 2022 FIFA World Cup Draw - April 1, 2022 - 12 PM EDT

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by schrutebuck, Mar 30, 2022.

  1. Marius Tresor

    Marius Tresor Member+

    Aug 1, 2014
    Senegal is really loaded with talent. They also have Gana Gueye in midfield and are strong at just about every position. They could make a serious run. I see them as a top 10 team in the world, in terms of talent.
     
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  2. Reccossu

    Reccossu Member+

    Jan 31, 2005
    Birmingham
    The counter argument is that the US might be benefitted by a strong pot 1 team that reduces the chances of other teams taking something off them. So Qatar sounds good until you draw them (good result against a pot 1 team!) but then Wales beats them 2-0.

    Might work better to have France take 9 points and just take care of business against pots 3 and 4.

    Not sure about this, but it's a possibility.

    Affecting all this is likely also the order of the games. Might be great to have already qualified France in game three and you only need to lose by less than 3, versus getting Qatar in game 1 when you don't know what you have to shoot for.

    Here's my feeling -- the pot-by-confederation approach always put the US in a group of death almost by design. This has to be better.
     
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  3. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    They are definitely the African team and the Pot 3 team I'd least like to get drawn with.
     
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  4. Scangg

    Scangg Member

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 28, 2022
  5. rgli13

    rgli13 Member+

    Mar 23, 2005
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  6. rgli13

    rgli13 Member+

    Mar 23, 2005
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    lol, england isnt winning anything...not that im itching to play them. if they started pickford maybe.
     
  7. keller4president

    Jan 5, 2006
    Likely US results against each of the Pot 3 teams:

    Senegal - US Loss, this team is stacked.

    Serbia - US Loss, I'm definitely scared of this team.

    Poland - US Loss. Lewandowski is our worst nightmare.

    IR Iran - US Win, but they have real goal scorers in Azmoun (Leverkeusen) and Taremi (Porto), so they are dangerous.

    Japan - US Win

    Morocco - Draw. Could be a loss if Ziyech returns to the national team from Chelsea after falling out with the coach.

    South Korea - US Win

    Tunisia - US Win. But remember how hard a time we had against Algeria in 2010?

    Pot 1:
    All losses, except maybe a draw against Qatar (depends if we play them first, second, or third - better to play them last).

    I also think we could earn a draw against England or Portugal if the stars align (ala 2010 and 2014).

    Qatar
    Brazil
    Belgium
    France
    Argentina
    England
    Spain
    Portugal
     
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  8. Sebsasour

    Sebsasour Member+

    New Mexico United
    May 26, 2012
    Albuquerque NM
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm curious why our odds of getting Brazil or Argentina are higher? I understand why the odds are different in other pots, but is there variance in Pot 1?
     
  9. Master O

    Master O Member+

    Jul 7, 2006
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So if I understand this right, the USA would be in a group that includes England?
     
  10. SideshowBob

    SideshowBob Member

    Jan 12, 2007
    Maryland
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Why would our chances of getting Qatar be higher than the UEFA teams? I can understand Brazil/Argentina since if Uruguay would be drawn with them, they go to another group so that increases the liklihood for other pot 2 teams to get them, but don't get Qatar.
     
  11. keller4president

    Jan 5, 2006
    I'll also note that African teams and Iran will most likely play better in the Qatari heat conditions.
     
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  12. Guinho

    Guinho Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes, bless their hearts
    Estonia
    May 27, 2001
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Let’s not forget that last time England and US were drawn together, the US won the group.
     
  13. Sebsasour

    Sebsasour Member+

    New Mexico United
    May 26, 2012
    Albuquerque NM
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    As a Poland fan, this seems like a fairly surface level view. Obviously going up against arguably the best player in the world is never ideal, but I'd argue if you take out Lewa, Poland is a middling UEFA team. Additionally we were pretty stout defensively in the qualifiers, so a team who's only strength is their striker is probably a matchup advantage for us.


    We could definitely lose to Poland, but I consider The US favorites in that
     
  14. keller4president

    Jan 5, 2006
  15. SideshowBob

    SideshowBob Member

    Jan 12, 2007
    Maryland
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Uruguay cannot draw them. So if Uruguay gets drawn to what would be a group with Brazil or Argentina, then they go to another group (basically Uruguay can only go into one of 6 groups and has a 0% chance of being in the Brazil or Argentina groups). That means that all the other teams in pot 2 have a higher chance of getting Brazil or Argentina.
     
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  16. Guinho

    Guinho Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes, bless their hearts
    Estonia
    May 27, 2001
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    In December, the average high in Qatar is 77F. Just about perfect soccer weather.
     
  17. keller4president

    Jan 5, 2006
    With Steffen's shaky play in goal, I am not confident of keeping Lewandowski quiet. Plus I think he would win any battle with Zimmerman and Robinson.
     
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  18. papermache16

    papermache16 Member+

    Jan 30, 2009
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Because you can't pair a Pot 2 CONMEBOL team with Argentina or Brazil, so Uruguay's odds get distributed to the other Pot 2 teams.
     
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  19. keller4president

    Jan 5, 2006
    So maybe cooler/less humid than our Brazil World Cup games. But I expect African and Asian teams to have more fans in the stands. And for any neutrals to be anti-US.
     
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  20. Yowza

    Yowza Member+

    DC United
    United States
    Oct 23, 2019
    Arlington
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't know about US favorites. I think that's a case where the US would be happy to draw, while Poland would be disappointed.
    But who knows 9 months from now? The US has to play better than they have so far for me to consider them favorites over Poland.
     
  21. nirwin

    nirwin Member

    Atlanta United
    United States
    Aug 20, 2007
    Atlanta
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Neither can be paired with Uruguay, and they're in Pot 2. Thus, everybody else's odds of getting Brazil or Argentina are higher.
     
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  22. goussoccer

    goussoccer Member+

    May 23, 2001
    Avon, CT
    In the past we were almost, by definition, in a 'group of death' as I think we were always in pot 3 but a dangerous team. Moving on up to pot 2 has changed that quite a bit. Still can happen, but no longer as high a chance.
     
  23. Yowza

    Yowza Member+

    DC United
    United States
    Oct 23, 2019
    Arlington
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yeah, somebody said it upthread, the US and Mexico usually made it the GoD.
     
  24. Sebsasour

    Sebsasour Member+

    New Mexico United
    May 26, 2012
    Albuquerque NM
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'd give us a slight advantage on the wings and with our fullbacks, but a massive advantage centrally with our MMA midfield, that is a big weakness for Poland.

    With Glik being well past his prime, I'd consider The CB's to be about a wash, and Poland would obviously have the edge at striker and goalie.

    I really think our MMA midfield would control that game, and I'd bet on the US if you gave me even odds
     
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  25. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Presumably also training home bases. And with Qatar being such a small country you basically won’t have to leave where ever your home base is.
     

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