Pre-match: 2022 FIFA World Cup Draw - April 1, 2022 - 12 PM EDT

As I recall, there wasn't a lot of political circus in '98. It did seem that the Iranians were much more motivated to defeat the Americans than vice versa. Overall, we were quite dismal in that WC.

 

Anyone wanna give their opinion on Pot 3, best to worst?

 

Based purely on rankings, setting aside style of play, the teams I want to avoid are Wales and Peru, both of which are pot 2 level squads. The team I would most want to see is Tunisia (elo in the 60s but in pot 3), but the other African teams are mid-30s at best and also potentially good draws, especially Ghana at 71st in pot 4.

 

Can I just say how fortunate it is the US is in Pot 2? Those other Pot 2 teams are murder, to not have to play them is the best thing that could've happened.

 

You’d think folks would want to avoid a team that’s riding a 31 game unbeaten streak and have beaten Brazil in Brazil in a cup final…

 

That seems like a long way to go for a draw.

 

Maybe. It isn’t like Denmark, Uruguay, Croatian or Switzerland are exactly terrifying.

 

I remember the roses. And losing of course

 

Full procedures for the needy are here:

https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/2ef762dcf5f577c6/original/Portrait-Master-Template.pdf


For the curious, if we draw Brazil, Argentina, or Qatar, we are guaranteed either Serbia or Poland, or the winner of the Wales/Scotland/ Ukraine playoff

 

For whatever reason all the coaches and related staff typically go.

 

Qatar is obviously the weakest team in pot 1, but they were pretty competitive at the Gold Cup last summer and gave us a real game in the semifinals. How would we feel about playing them in a true away match vs. the traditional superpowers in pot 1?

I still think I'd take my chances with Qatar, but it's not like it's going to be an easy game (not that there are ever easy games for us in a World Cup).

 

Switzerland is a really good team, something we saw first hand in our friendly last year, but then they also had a good Euros knocking out France. And then they finished ahead of Italy in their qualifying group.

And Denmark made it all the Euro semis before they ran out of gas in extra time against England.

Croatia and Uruguay I think are a step below those two, though both have lots of good players. Both are older teams though, and older teams tend to be most likely to underachieve in the World Cup.

 

How is Ghana looking these days? 'Cuz you know they'll be in our group.

 

Can't ignore the context of that game last summer... it was very much a USA B team - I'll take my chances with Qatar in Qatar vs a traditional superpower.

 

I think ideal draw would probably be Qatar, US, Tunisia, and the Euro Playoff team (which would ideally be Scotland)

If we don't get Qatar we probably want a European team from pot 1, US, Tunisia, and Saudi Arabia. As for the nature of that European team the one's I'd most like to avoid are France, England, and Spain.

 

Yeah, I think Portugal is a great one, if you're a history buff! Then, of course, Ghana. And Iran for all kinds of messed up reasons.

 

Which isn't a group of death.

I think TSS did this well: a group of death is one in which there are THREE teams that everyone would have expected to make it out of the group.

The new seeding doesn't generally allow for this. Canada is a talented team with a chance at an upset, but they aren't a consensus Top 16 team, and if Brazil and Germany come out of that group, no one is going to be like "Oh, I can't believe Canada and Senegal are out."

Groups of death are largely dead. If say, Portugal had gotten stuck in an unresolved UEFA situation with Ukraine, then maybe we'd have one.

The hardest group DNE the group of death.

 

Senegal is really really good. They're the African champions and have three players who'd start for any team in the world (Mane, Mendy, and Koulibaly). They're a team people should expect to get out of the group.

Canada is a tougher case, but I really think they are going to surprise people at the World Cup and I would not want to be drawn with them compared to some of the other Pot 4 teams. More than anyone else they were screwed over by the FIFA rankings as the only reason they are in Pot 4 was because their ranking was so bad for so long and they were coming from so far back. The on paper best team in Pot 4 is probably Wales.

 

My guess is that they will also start preparation/planning for November/December (training facilities, stadiums, etc.).

 

3 PTO requests coming in hot tomorrow

 

That's an odd take.

 

It's not that I don't think Senegal is really good.

I just don't think they are at the level that if they don't make the knockouts, people are really shocked. The whole point of a Group of Death is that there's a guaranteed knock out of a top team.

Perhaps I am underrating them, and there's definitely a matter here of me not watching as much of the African teams. So maybe they are the most likely.

But before all teams were seeded, you'd get situations where top ranked teams were put into groups together, and you don't get that anymore.

I just think there's a difference between the hardest group and a Group of Death.

 

That’s a dumb take. England is probably going to win the tournament. We aren’t going to beat them.

 

Looks like 28% chance of getting Brazil or Argentina, 41% chance of getting Serbia/Poland, and 31% chance of getting Wales/Scotland/Ukraine

The draw pots are now known! And here are the #WorldCup2022 #draw #probabilities for #USA (+/- 0.3%) based on 100,000 simulations of the official procedure #Qatar2022 #FIFAWorldCup #WorldCupDraw pic.twitter.com/eCqZZ11VCa

— Julien Guyon (@julienguyon1977) March 31, 2022