Post-match: USA v Panama

And he rarely lays an egg when he does.

He might not be in my personal 23, but he wouldn't be far off of it, either, and you could make a case for him to be on it. The hand-wringing that will inevitably follow will be primarily based in ideology and aesthetics.

 

I feel like he’s definitely not in the first 23 going to Qatar, but we all know that guys are going to end up hurt unexpectedly and he may sneak his way onto the plane.

 

And that's about as it should be, I think. I'm not making the list at this point, but I think I would have him at something like 24-26. Especially if he continues to have a good season at Seattle. He got off to a very good start.

 

Well there’s a reason our chances are about 1 percent. It’s possible, but very unlikely.

 

Interesting - I was at the match and was sure Luca would be one of the halftime subs as he seemed to be overmatched physically, losing the ball multiple times in our own half. But then I hear all the praise here, so maybe being in the 2nd to last row of the stadium in a corner may not be the best vantage to see the intricacies of the match. That and 50+ aged eyes. I like him, so glad to hear he did better than what I "saw".

 

He is going to get zero the next one, so we will have to wait for a while, unless he scores on Wednesday.

 

The ranking takes as base the adjusted June 2018 ranking, where USA was #25 and Mexico was #15.

Adjusting:

1600 - (15-1) * 4 = 1544 base points for Mexico
1600 - (25-1) * 4 = 1504 base points for USA

Since then, rankings are added using the formula:

NewPoints = OldPoints + (GameImportance)*(Result - WinExpectation)

Where WinExpectation = 1/(10°+1)

And ° = -(OldPointsA - OldPointsB)/600

where A is this team and B is the rival. So if you rank above the rival, ° is between -1.3 and 0, and if you rank below it's between 0 and 1.3.

Since USA and Mexico rank much higher than their usual competition, ° is always a rather big negative number for the range, say about -0.5 or so. 10 to the -0.5 is the square root 1/10, that is, a rather small number, in this case 0.32 (they use two decimal places in FIFA).

So we have WinExpectation = 1/(0.32 + 1) = 0.76

For us, in C-CAF, WinExpectation is always going to be a rather big number within the range, unless we play Mexico, much closer to 1 than to 0.

GameImportance goes from 5 for friendlies outside a FIFA windows all the way to 60 for World Cup playoff games. For us, the most meaningful are Gold Cup games (35 group stage, 40 after that), Qualifiers (25), Nations League playoff games (25) and group (15).

Result is 1 if a win, 0.5 is a draw, and 0 is a loss.

So taking a Gold Cup playoff game, the most important games for our ranking we play in a cycle, and assuming we win:

40*(1 - 0.76) = 9.6

That is, we win very few points for winning even the most important games, unless we beat Mexico.

Since we started with a difference of -40 points, and Mexico also beats the smaller teams, it's very hard for us to reach them in points even if during the cycle we've been better.

We have to wait until the counter is reset after the Qatar World Cup, where they should take the ranking from October 2022 as the base for the adjusted points.

 

It's the backup qb syndrome. Then the backup gets to start in the 2 easiest games cuz you didn't have much faith in him for a reason, & he doesn't bomb, so that means he's actually good & should have gotten the nod all along.

Also, it's a product of being associated w/ good performances on the scoreboard. But again, keep in mind who we were playing.

I'd make an additional note both times he started he was fresh after most players on the field had to run themselves ragged in the previous game(s).

And yet, here's what the metric Sofascore thought of him both games:

*Panama - 6.7, which is mediocre, and 8th of 10 US outfielders
*Honduras-6.9, which is average, and t-6th of 10 US outfielders

Yet both times you had a group of people adamantly declaring he was MOTM & this validated he should have been a regular all along.

The jury's still out. I think he doesn't move the needle, but will usually be adequate. So like your typical guy we've rotated toward the back end of the roster.

He has a good 1st touch, then progresses, which has some utility, when Musah, Williamson, McKennie, & maybe Pomykal are out.

But yea, he is a weakling. It gets him run off the ball a fair amount, especially w/ his tendency to hold onto it too long.

That tendency also leads to him missing out on faster transitional opportunities. Also goes to struggling w/ impact in the final 3rd.

And going back to that lack of strength, it hurts him defensively. He's spunky to partially compensate, but that's a double-edged sword. He's too aggressive often, getting out of position. And he still can't win most times.

 

I thought LDLT was decent, however that’s all I wanted from him because his passing and moving was enough to unlock Pulisic, who was brilliant. It’s not good to play someone like Acosta with Pulisic in this system and we saw why today. Those 8s MUST be able to unlock their attacking mids with their movement off the ball and passing, otherwise we’re not creating chances. What I REALLY want to unleash on someone is Wes + Reyna supporting Weah and Pulisic, and then sometime in the 2nd half LDLT and Yunus spelling those guys and then bringing on Aaronson. That’s 90 minutes of hell.

 

That was just the question I was asking myself — thanks!

 

Good stuff.

That definitely wasn't some kind of elegant victory march but more a methodical beat down.

LDLT was my favorite tonight. Was a nice performance just showing a full range of quality helping us to the win.

Everyone else chipped in appropriately as needed,

 

I knew there was a reason I stopped watching soccer. Seeing that first penalty call just reaffirmed I made the right decision. That kind of push-me/pull-you antic has been going on in penalty boxes since before Methuselah. I now officially qualify as old, curmudgeonly and "things were better in the good old days". Of course, home team refereeing has been around for at least as long...

 

Not to mention we’ve already got the .5 slot if everything imploded.

 

They’re useful qualities if he was good at any of them in a US Shirt. He isn’t and so it’s irrelevant. Versatility can get you a ticket, but you’ve actually got to contribute and he doesn’t in international play.

 

That was a crazy foul. Zimmerman fought through the first throat grab/push but got shoved down with the second throat grab/push. VAR may limit how much we get CONCACAF’d in the future. Also crazy Godoy didn’t get a YC for that .

 

I had no idea the draw would be this coming Friday. Kinda shocked. Also view us as pot 2. Almost zero chance of pot 1.

 

Still working on the flights, but we bought our tickets to the semifinal already. Hoping to see the U.S. there.

 

You saw right in terms of his lack of physicality.
BUt in terms of backup #8s, he's fine. We can trust him to do a job when we have injuries/suspensions/etc.

I'd be really interested in judging de la Torre and Pomykal side by side. I think Pax is a better two-way player than de la Torre.

 

Assuming for the purposes of argument that Godoy somehow doesn’t deserve a penalty for shoving Zimmerman to the ground by his neck… Godoy then clearly would still deserve a penalty for handling the ball a split-second later.

 

I was also very surprised to check in here after the game and see post after post calling LDLT the MOTM. I thought he played well in the second half--still with a few sloppy giveaways and otherwise mistakes--but he was probably my lowest rated player at halftime. Lots of slow reactions/lack of field awareness, poorly played passes and generally looked unprepared for the speed of the game. By the second half kickoff Panama was pretty well demoralized and didn't have the energy they had in the first half, so I'm not sure it's so much that he improved in response or that he was just more capable of working in the lower speed and pressure of Panama's defense in the second. Nonetheless, the ball sticks to his foot and he was quite effective in the 2nd half, so good for him and good for us.

 

I was at the game too but pretty close to field level on the sideline opposite the US bench. There’s so much more going on that it’s tough to track but LDLT stood out to me when advancing the ball and his grittiness on the defensive side. I’m sure he had some giveaways, several players did.

I had a great view of CPs third goal, that was awesome.

A comment on Gio Reyna, that kid has a commanding presence whether he is in warmups or in the game. He’s good and he knows it.

 

What's up with people on this thread bashing Christian Roldan?
It's a weird hobby of these boards. They can make any thread about Christian Roldan. He didn't play. Roldan has played ~75 total minutes in WCQing.

We have a lot of injuries, and have overcome them relatively easily in this window. And have used these guys all cycle. Depth, depth, depth.

These MLS depth guys make a difference. Our depth guys are better than their depth guys. We just rolled out a guy at right back who I might not have as my 10th best RB on the depth chart. And he handled a WCQer against a desperate opponent pretty well. And Panama kept attacking down his side because Robinson was playing so well. People bashed Arriola all cycle, he continues to play an important role. People bashed Acosta all cycle, and he continues to play an important role. Ferreira has stepped into an important role.

Yes, if you start them all at the same time then you're in trouble (see Panama on the road). But these guys fill the gaps.

If we're completely healthy, then Roldan probably isn't in the squad at all. People know that, right? But there are always injuries, suspensions, etc. As people were watching that game last night, did they even think about Brenden Aaronson? I didn't until just now. He and the also-missing Weston McKennie are our joint 3rd leading scorers after Pulisic and Pepi.

 

Very seriously. They remember what happened in 2017, too. Why not again?