The key here is the player making the play that wins the game or gets the result. Steffen hasn't been that player.
I think if we lose this game tonight it'll be because we can't score goals against this level of opposition. We've conceded 7 goals in 11 games regardless of who the keeper is. That's pretty good.
Steffen has allowed 2 and a half times the amount of goals per game during his nat'l team career as Turner. It's the same for expected goals saved. Horvath has played over a smaller sample, but we saw when he replaced Steffen in Nations' League the difference that was made, after Zack had allowed a soft, near post goal. And Ethan's had a save % ten points better in his club career. Obviously keeping goals out of net at that much higher of a rate makes a difference in wins or losses over time, against teams that can test us, like Mexico. That much is a truism. If Steffen is the choice this camp and World Cup, it will prove to be detrimental at some point. It already has at Jamaica. That was 2 points dropped. And we were fortunate the calls went our way at home v. Costa Rica, otherwise that would have likely been another 2 points dropped, in part due to Steffen's poor shot-stopping. The decision would be made sheerly out of relationship or style bias. And it warrants heavy criticism as a result.
I think individual ability of the player matters. Games are decided on fine margins. Horvath probably stops that Antonio goal. Steffen would have no chance on that Firmino attempt.
If Yedlin goes down during the game, what do we do at right back - desperately throw Adams out there away from CM or the bench where he's being protected on a yellow? Switch your system back to a back 3 and plug in Arriola as a wing-back? This is why you're supposed to stock a team with sufficient positional cover and roster #'s when you don't have a limit. It's remarkable he continues to never learn from this mistake. And then some pretend like it hadn't become a problem before.
If something happens those are the two options. Not ideal. Assuming that Cannon is actually out. This is why I'd try to get Scally to Orlando today. It's good to have a 5th fullback who can play either side just in case. Mönchengladbach is about a one hour train ride from Frankfurt from which you can fly directly to Orlando, so it should be easy enough logistically.
Then you're still using Adams at CDM, which is a problem if you wanted to protect him on a yellow. So it creates that problem, as well as utilizing an underwhelming rb option like Acosta, who has thrived in the middle v. Mexico. It's backing us into unpalatable solutions regardless. As opposed to just bringing Scally and plugging him in if Yedlin went down. I think there's been a reluctance to integrate Scally during qualifiers simply because he has no caps & is a defender. Waiting until Nations' League. But he could have been worked in off the bench along the way to be ready for bigger moments and roles.
With regard to the GK question, I feel like Steffen is kinda ok in all respects. I think he's been underwhelming but not horrible when he's played in qualifying. He's let in a couple iffy goals (Costa Rica and Jamaica), but it's debatable how savable they were. He also hasn't made many above-average-difficulty saves. The only one I remember is that one early on against Mexico. I think Horvath is more boom or bust. I'd say he's more likely to pull a "Howard v. Belgium" and steal a result for us at Azteca, but I also feel like he's more likely to fall apart and let in a howler. That probably means I'd go with Horvath, since it's not the end of the world if we lose this game, but it would be huge to get a point or three tonight.
How would you feel about experimenting with Tim Weah at right back? I think he can handle the defensive duties and still get forward. plus he has excellent recovery speed.
How about Roldan in a pinch? I don't know his top-end speed, but others have described him as deceptively fast. I saw somewhere that his "top recorded sustained speed" in MLS last year was in the 88th percentile, which isn't terrible.
I'd have Arriola do it (and he did play some as RB in a 4-man backline for Olsen) before any first-time experiments. (Though I note that Berhalter said "Not as a right back," when asked early in his tenure where he saw Arriola playing. )
I wonder how much weight Berhalter is giving to "chemistry" type considerations. Do you make a plan over the window to make sure Ferreira and Arriola are on the field at the same time. Pefok speaks very little English. Do you want Weah (the only other French-speaking player on the team) to be on the field at the same time.
I believe Acosta played right back in his last match with the Galaxy. He's played more left back in his career. But he is a right footed player. I would guess he is the backup RB if Cannon is not available.
Arriola is a good shout for rb. For DC, he'd excelled at the position back in '18. I'm not sure how quick in defense he would be following the knee surgery, however. Acosta has been atrocious at rb. He's been better at lb. Roldan is fast but not quick. He lacks that lateral quickness needed by good defenders. His brother is a much better rb.
He played RB in the Nations League Final against Mexico. He came in, and almost immediately gave up the pen that Guardado had saved by Horvath. Let's just play Yedlin 90.
Can everyone who kept saying it's not worthwhile to criticize Gregg for failing to bring plenty of bodies into camp just please take note of how easily an injury or Covid test completely upsets Berhalter's apple cart? The right back went down. Gregg replaced him with a left back. Yes, that helped cover up the fact that he had already screwed up the LB rostering, but it still left he RB vulnerable. If only there were no limits on how many players could be brought to camp. I wish that were the case. If Yedlin gets injured (and who is not expecting some really hard, late tackles to be delivered to DeAndre with purpose now), the I'd consider going to 3 atb before I tried Roldan or Acosta there. I trust Arriola to at least follow instructions, have some speed, quickness, and be very willing, so he'd be the next option. Otherwise, let Gregg himself play it. He probably thinks he should be on the roster anyway.
Your mixing two different things. Acosta played LB at the end of the CNL Final. He subbed into the Martinique game, in the GC, at RB, and immediately gave up a PK. I don't think he has played FB since.
If they stuck with four in the back I’d almost sooner consider sliding over one of the quicker CBS on the roster and have them be very stay at home with Jedi having a lot more freedom to get forward. So it’d nominally be a back four but often turn into more of a three in the back.
3-in-the-back is also a good shout, if Cannon and Yedlin become unavailable. I already prefer 343 to start the match. In the 343, the team was able to get a draw at Azteca in 2017, despite playing on 3-days rest.