Was Honduras a “must win” game?

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by dspence2311, Feb 5, 2022.

  1. dspence2311

    dspence2311 Member+

    Oct 14, 2007
    In the post match PC Berhalter had one of those testy moments with a reporter over this issue. The reporter’s Q described the match as “must win” and Gregg interrupted the question with “I never said this was a must win game.”

    Was it a must win? What would out odds look like if we emerged from this window with 4 or 3 points instead of 6?
     
  2. Ball Chucking Hack

    Jan 21, 2005
    Raleigh, NC
    I guess it depends on what "must win" means. If the US lost the most likely scenario is that Panama comes to Orlando in March up 2 instead of down 1 or more. The US would obviously have to win that and then tie or, more likely, beat Costa Rica. If they did both of those things, they'd still qualify. So they didn't have to beat Honduras, but the math gets a lot tougher if they don't.

    In the end, I think Berhalter's audience is his own team with comments like this. He wants them focussed on what they are doing in that game. More exterior pressure probably doesn't help. Just guessing, but he probably thinks that just focussing on the task immediately in front of you is better for the team's psychology.

    It's in the same vein with how he wanted them to look more positively at their performance against Canada before have to play an important (I guess not a must win) game against Honduras.
     
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  3. Eleven Bravo

    Eleven Bravo Member+

    Atlanta United
    United States
    Jul 3, 2004
    SC
    Club:
    Atlanta Silverbacks
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Absolutely. It would turn the next window is a must of 9 points.... in the hardest window when we have yet to play up to expectations in any window in World Cup qualifying.
     
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  4. nobody

    nobody Member+

    Jun 20, 2000
    I guess whether it was must win depends on two things. Do you want to qualify for the world cup? And, do you think we are suddenly going to start winning difficult away games? I consider the answer to the first an obvious yes and the second an obvious no. So, that makes it must win.
     
  5. russ

    russ Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Canton,NY
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well,no post game buffet for you,citizen.
    Who was the reporter? Probably had to write an apology letter.
     
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  6. goussoccer

    goussoccer Member+

    May 23, 2001
    Avon, CT
    I wonder if Gregg took it as a 'must win or you would've gotten fired' question? Depends on the past interactions with the reporter.....IMHO.
     
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  7. dspence2311

    dspence2311 Member+

    Oct 14, 2007
    I didn’t catch the reporter’s name, but he did act surprised at the interruption. And GB looked to his media guy as he objected. I really don’t care for that type of prickliness. Yes, he is under pressure, but why he would expect to control every inch of t(e public narrative is beyond me.
     
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  8. yurch10

    yurch10 Member+

    Feb 13, 2004
    A loss or tie (which was never gonna happen) would have required some real discussions to be had.

    Thankfully we didn't find out what would've happened, as I'd rather take a consistently underperforming team to the world cup than not go at all.
     
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  9. gtrower

    gtrower Member

    Jul 14, 2014
    Club:
    DC United
    Mathematically, no.

    Realistically, maybe.

    Spiritually, yes.
     
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  10. MarioKempes

    MarioKempes Member+

    Real Madrid, DC United, anywhere Pulisic plays
    Aug 3, 2000
    Proxima Centauri
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It was a must-win. @Mexico, Panama, @costa Rica is the most difficult window in this qualifying campaign. I won't be surprised if we only get 3 points, although I am hopeful for 4 or 5. Berhalter is trying to protect his players from pressure.
     
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  11. dlokteff

    dlokteff Member+

    Jan 22, 2002
    San Francisco, CA
    Mathematically, of course it wasn't a must win, but as @gtrower says above, realistically, maybe, spiritually, yes. Great way to put it.

    Here are the odds changes.

    Current 94/5/1.

    With a 1-1 Draw instead - 81/14/5

    With a 1-0 loss instead - 67/23/10

    Even with a loss there, 2 times out of 3 we still qualify directly according to the mathematical models. So, Berhalter is right if he wants to die on that hill. Losing to Honduras at home, given everything in our favor there, be real, that would be hysteria inducing.
     
  12. Shaster

    Shaster Member+

    Apr 13, 1999
    El Cerrito, CA, USA
    If you don’t care about qualifying for WC, of course it doesn’t matter.
     
  13. phillyfan593

    phillyfan593 Member

    Jul 20, 2011
    Not a “must win”, but an unacceptable loss. Did Honduras have a one player that would have started on US squad last Wednesday? Lol.

    USA had to win that game to help their psyche and the fan psyche going into the last window because everyone still has some scars from 2017.
     
  14. Ghost

    Ghost Member+

    Sep 5, 2001
    There won't be a true must-win game until we're playing in a cage in Saprissa. That's the issue.
     
  15. onefineesq

    onefineesq Member+

    Sep 16, 2003
    Laurel, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Note on the "odds." It may be true (I assume that you have faithfully reproduced the numbers) that 2/3 of the possible permutations would have us directly qualifying if we had lost to Honduras, but in real life each permutation is not equally possible (because the games don't have the same randomness of a coin flip). Because of that, with a loss, I would have had our direct qualification chance to be significantly lower than 67%, just as I don't believe that we are 94% likely to qualify directly from our current position. That said, I agree with post #9.
     
  16. phillyfan593

    phillyfan593 Member

    Jul 20, 2011
    How do you don’t believe that it’s a 98% that we make the World Cup. 100 things would have to go wrong.
     
  17. Southern Man

    Southern Man Member

    Jun 14, 2008
    If we ran an experiment, I would bet that your predictive abilities are considerably worse than elo.
     
  18. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    No.

    Words have meanings, even if some are too lazy or dumb to know them. There is no debate over what "must win" means. Is 'must' too tricky a word for some people?

    If we had lost, we'd still be in 3rd, with 3 games left.
     
  19. An Unpaved Road

    An Unpaved Road Member+

    Mar 22, 2006
    Club:
    --other--
    It wasn’t according to the table. And it probably wasn’t according the players in that they’re not planning for a loss at Costa Rica despite the weight of history.
     
  20. dlokteff

    dlokteff Member+

    Jan 22, 2002
    San Francisco, CA
    The games aren't being simulated with a coin flip. It's based on the Elo ratings. A coin flip model would actually lower our odds by quite a bit I presume.
     
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  21. Ironbound

    Ironbound Member+

    Jul 1, 2009
    I watched this live. It wasn’t Berhalter objecting to the reporter calling it a must win game. It was that the reporter prefaced his question with (paraphrasing) “you called this a must win game” and Berhalter interrupted to correct him. A prickly, but I can see why he didn’t want to be misquoted.

    He may also have been irritated with the question before that (I think) that was basically “why did you play this game in a place that gave the Hondurans hypothermia.”
     

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