Canada have not been to the WC in almost 40 years and haven't lost a game yet, but some of you think they won't have motivation to win in CR and Panama? You think Herdman would be fine going into the WC with their last meaningful game being a loss? F*** losing! I'd want to win all 3 games and slam the door shut on anyone thinking we weren't the best team in CONCACAF. They haven't lost yet. There's zero chance they lose both of those.
Based on my observations the last year or so I doubt El Salvador or Canada phone it in after qualification/elimination.... Honduras and Jamaica... maybe a bit more so but yea, these guys are professionals and once they step inside the lines they are going to be battling. Just like Trinidad did in 2017. These teams aren't just auto-wins for CR and PAN.
Once qualification is mathematically assured I wouldn't be surprised to see some Canadian XI's that aren't the best. Those players will play hard but some of the key/best players may get a rest.
Not sure why folks think we will lose in CR I fully expect a tie there. Or are folks just looking at worst case scenarios?
Because the whole point of the original scenario was to point out how easily we could be screwed. I gave essentially the same scenario except that Canada draws at CR. In this scenario we land in 3rd place even if we lose both away games.
They're looking at worst case scenarios. That said, I know I've seen other folks say it a crapload of times, but I can't recall -- have we ever even tied in CR? My memory is that we always fall apart there. But I'm not sure CR has ever been as weak as it is now.
I said it wrong. I don't mean playing at half speed or not trying but I do believe top players might (probably) will be rested. Also, while they won't play half speed, there is something to be said for level of extra motivation as well. Panama could be playing for their life while Canada doesn't have that same motivation. Will they still try to win? Definitely! The players on the field want to win for many reasons but the best players might not be on the field.
My scenario and @glutton4Bolts' related one are far from worst-case scenarios. We're also not presenting them as highly likely, but as reasonable and plausible. Worst-case scenarios would involve not beating Panama at home, for example, requiring us to find points elsewhere in unlikely places, e.g., Mexico and Costa Rica.
We got a draw in Alajuela in the 1985 CONCACAF Championship, which doubled as World Cup qualifying. All losses since.
You can't string a bunch of plausible or coin flip scenarios together and claim that it's entirely reasonable that it happens. The chances of all of those things happening together makes it implausible, despite all of them individually being plausible. For starters, I don't think it's plausible that Costa Rica wins all three games next window, so that would be the end of that if we beat Panama or if one of games they don't win is against us.
Yeah. Before I was paying attention to things. So even getting a tie there would break a 37 year streak. While every game is different, I don't think we can count on that.
But we can't automatically assume that we will lose there and at the same time be mad that Canada beat us at home and away. Not calling people out, just mentioning that the Canada team is different and so is CR (and us).
I don't think @ Costa Rica will be easy. They may still be in it, and we have been poor on the road this qualifying. But Costa Rica no longer plays at Saprissa's stadium. They are a mediocre team this qualifying, though improving. They scored two goals only twice, against Honduras at home and at home against El Salvador, where they got a pen. They do have the US and Canada at home, but they have zero points so far against the US, Canada or Mexico. They took 4 off Panama, and they have two home games left... so they aren't bad, but their wins have been far from dominant. That Panama game had four SOG across BOTH teams. Yes, a defensively strong CR at home sounds like a tie with a high chance of a mistake leading to a loss. I won't disagree. But I don't think it is the automatic loss that it has been. Then again, neither is the Azteca. We have physical edges on them.
So -- dug my way through everything from 1980 to today in the Wikipedia records. (Damn fine resource, btw). For a long stretch we were pretty even. But with all the 'reminiscences' over the 2018 WCQs, our loss in Costa Rica 4-0 in 2016 should've been a clear indicator of where we were headed. That is the worst drubbing we've taken at their hands in 40 years. But I'm sure there's plenty of folks that said that at the time. I was kinda distracted and not really paying attention at the time. I'm now firmly in the 'we do NOT need to need even one point on the last day' camp.
Trying to sum up (I think the following is mostly correct) (the following also assumes that Costa Rica does not win out and there is not a large swing in goal difference) The US qualifies automatically if: we win against Panama. we tie against Panama and -tie both other games in the window. -or we win one other game in the window. -tie one other game in the window and get help. (probably from Canada taking points from Panama.) we lose to Panama and -we win the two other games in the window - we win one other game in the window and get help (again probably from Canada taking points from Panama) The US at least goes to the playoff with any combination of a US win or a Costa Rica loss or two combined ties in games played by Costa Rica and the US. Correct?
I'm not sure why people would assume Costa Rica won't win out. They play at El Salvador, but have us and Canada at home. I would feel pretty good if I were them.
Probably because there's been exactly one nine point window all Ocho, and that's by Canada, a far better team? It's not impossible, but a team with a +1 GD can't be looking at this schedule and be saying "9 points easy."
Who wants it to be easy? I thought we left Costa Rica for dead, but they resurrected themselves with a strong window. Costa Rica 1-0 Panama Mexico 0-0 Costa Rica Jamaica 0-1 Costa Rica Zero goals allowed. Navas isn't the Navas of old, but they are tough to score on when he's in. We may have to deliver the knockout blow ourselves, and if so it won't be easy.
Canada hasn't lost yet. I wouldn't be so sure of a Ticos win, even at home (where they drew Jamaica and lost to Mexico)
Because they're playing two of the three best teams in the region and haven't yet had a window where they got nine points? By far their best window was this one, and they won a 1-0 stalemate-type game against Panama, held an absolutely dire Mexico team with no fans in Azteca to a scoreless draw and nipped a Jamaica team that is a total mess 1-0. They need to play much better than they have to this point to even have a chance to get nine points. If one of the folks running simulations wouldn't mind, what is the chance of Costa Rica winning all three games next window? I bet it's not high.
Costa Rica is always overachieving though, I counted them out before this window. We might beat them 4 out of 5 times, but the last round with everything on a line at CR might be a wrong one.