The Ocho

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by Patrick167, Jul 27, 2020.

  1. RefIADad

    RefIADad Member+

    United States
    Aug 18, 2017
    Des Moines, IA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Even though he wasn’t great in the US-Mexico game at TQL, Ivan Barton (SLV) is one of two non-MLS/Liga MX referees I’d take. Said Martinez (Honduras-worked the Gold Cup final) is the other one.

    All of the other non-MLS/Liga MX refs just don’t cut it-including Mario Escobar, who seems to be the golden child of CONCACAF right now.
     
    slaminsams repped this.
  2. Jay510

    Jay510 Member+

    Apr 21, 2002
    Gadsden Purchase, AZ
    Club:
    Blackburn Rovers FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    USA really isn’t competing directly with Canada and Mexico anymore, they’re competing directly for points with Panama and Costa Rica.

    4 points up on Panama with superior GD with 5 games to go and Panama have to play at USA and Mexico…
     
  3. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    Buchanan can play both sides - he switched tonight when Laryea canme on
     
    LouisZ repped this.
  4. RecLeague Super Sub

    Fulham
    United States
    Jun 5, 2019
    The USA has to be better no doubt, so I don’t want to make excuses. But it cannot be underestimated how much the US-ES refs killed that match, and any chance the US had to get a rhythm.
    As you said, the ref was calling every single touch a foul (God forbid an actual game of soccer breakout on the field), while his line judges frequently awarded the throw in/dead ball kick to the wrong team.
    He wanted to make himself a part of the story, a part of the action, which is No No number #1 for any serious ref.
    Anyway, I’ll take the 3 points and hope for good luck on the road vs Canada, who look excellent.
     
    gogorath repped this.
  5. onefineesq

    onefineesq Member+

    Sep 16, 2003
    Laurel, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I cannot agree. Panama dominated the early game. In the first 15 minutes, Costa Rica was pinned in its own box, defending, as Panama swarmed. Panama simply couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. But the dangerous play was tilted heavily toward Panama. And at the end of the game, after Costa Rica scored, Panama had one shot off the bar, another cleared off the line, Navas punching/tipping away 3 or 4 dangerous crosses, and probably half a dozen shots blocked by Costa Rican players defending for their lives. If Panama had its shooting boots on and just a smidgen of good fortunate, this would have been a rout. Costa Rica is slooooooooooooowwwwww.
     
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  6. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    you guys need to thank me.
    less than a minute before ARob scored today, I got frustrated at our player dribbling into a group of Salvadorenos and said to myself "I'm going into the kitchen now so that they will score". The rest is history.
     
  7. Marius Tresor

    Marius Tresor Member+

    Aug 1, 2014
    Costa Rica did Canada, the USA, and Mexico a big favor. The 3 North American teams look to be the automatic qualifiers and, with Jamaica's loss, it looks like a battle between Panama and Costa Rica for the playoff spot.
     
    Maximum Optimal repped this.
  8. Marius Tresor

    Marius Tresor Member+

    Aug 1, 2014
    Honduras is basically eliminated now. I wonder how they will approach the rest of their games, including @USA. It could be another 6-0, or maybe they will play better, since they are just playing for pride. It will be interesting...
     
    Eleven Bravo and Winoman repped this.
  9. Reccossu

    Reccossu Member+

    Jan 31, 2005
    Birmingham
    It’s like they watched Pulisic and said “hold my beer.”
     
    gogorath repped this.
  10. puttputtfc

    puttputtfc Member+

    Sep 7, 1999
    I'm glad you said this because I thought it was me being biased. I thought we were going to get CONCACAFed after the first few bad calls but by halftime I realized the refs were just horrible at their jobs as opposed to favoring one team.
     
    gogorath and RecLeague Super Sub repped this.
  11. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Yup.

    Panama has ridden some luck to get where they are in this ocho.
    Last night the luck just wasn't on their side. Panama fans must have been beating their heads against the wall watching that game.

    As far as the Ocho goes, the top 3 is almost done and dusted.
    If those teams just win the games their supposed to win, they'll be fine.

    Jamaica's got a tough road, but they're not eliminated from 4th place yet.
    Their next two games are against Panama and Costa Rica.
    So it's in their hands. You wouldn't favor them, but the opportunity is there.

    Costa Rica and Panama both visit the Azteca in this window as well.

    Jamaica also has the easiest last window of the three, by the way. At home against both Honduras and El Salvador.

    So the path is there. It just has to start with a win against Panama this weekend.
     
    Marius Tresor repped this.
  12. gtrower

    gtrower Member

    Jul 14, 2014
    Club:
    DC United
    Marius Tresor repped this.
  13. gtrower

    gtrower Member

    Jul 14, 2014
    Club:
    DC United
    Was a very odd performance by a center ref. Don’t recall often seeing a center incorrectly overruling linesmen calls multiple times. If you’re going to overrule those you better be pretty damn sure you saw something they didn’t. Not big impacts on the game, but man really frustrating.
     
    Winoman repped this.
  14. Jay510

    Jay510 Member+

    Apr 21, 2002
    Gadsden Purchase, AZ
    Club:
    Blackburn Rovers FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The roadmap is very simple at this point, beat Honduras and beat Panama, that’s 24pts, Panama would need to win every other match to beat USA, including beating Mexico in Azteca.
     
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  15. Three and Three

    Three and Three Member+

    Sep 13, 2015
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    There's the game within the game, homeslice. Beat Canada. Beat Mexico.
     
  16. schrutebuck

    schrutebuck Member+

    Jul 26, 2007
    IMO, if anything changed in the models last night, my guess would be that the US is now more likely to finish 3rd instead of 1st or 2nd. Away wins for Canada and Mexico are huge.

    Probability for 4th is likely the same for the US, and probability for 5th has likely increased by a tiny margin.
     
    gomichigan24 repped this.
  17. phillyfan593

    phillyfan593 Member

    Jul 20, 2011
    Has it been updated yet?
     
  18. chad

    chad Member+

    Jun 24, 1999
    Manhattan Beach
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't know how Canada keeps winning these away games. Hasn't anyone told them it is impossible?
     
  19. USOutlaw16

    USOutlaw16 Member+

    Green Bay Voyageurs
    United States
    Jan 22, 2011
    On the Gringo Wall of Shame
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    In all fairness, their only away win so far this round was at Honduras. Which funnily enough is also our only away win.

    The rest of their away matches have ended in draws
     
  20. chad

    chad Member+

    Jun 24, 1999
    Manhattan Beach
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    My bad. Didn't anyone tell them they have to lose?
     
  21. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Indeed they've had road games at Honduras, Jamaica, the US, and Mexico. We've had road games at Honduras, Jamaica, Panama, and El Salvador.

    We both beat Honduras and tied Jamaica on the road. We tied El Salvador and lost at Panama while, they tied both the US and and Mexico.

    We obviously haven't played Canada on the road yet or Mexico, but the main blemish on our road record so far is the loss at Panama.
     
  22. schrutebuck

    schrutebuck Member+

    Jul 26, 2007
    Sunday's matches are fairly simple for US fans IMO.

    We would want Mexico to defeat Costa Rica, Panama to either draw or lose to Jamaica, and El Salvador to take points in Honduras.

    The last is important, because I'd rather face a demoralized Honduras next week.
     
  23. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Shrug. 1st/2nd prediction is always difficult.
    I mean, there's a scenario in which Canada clinches early and coasts to the line. They may not care about their last 2 games.

    Often the team that ends up finishing first in the Hex or Ocho is the team that has to play games that matter at the end. They pick up a bunch of points in the final two games while another team is using backups.
     
  24. papermache16

    papermache16 Member+

    Jan 30, 2009
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Currently 10th in FIFA Rankings after yesterday's fixtures (only .01 behind Denmark), if you're looking at Pot stuff:


    Rank
    ↑↓
    Team Current Point Prev. Point Prev. Rank
    1 Belgium (BEL) 1,828.45 1,828 1
    2 Brazil (BRA) 1,818.60 (-7.75) 1,826 2
    3 France (FRA) 1,786.15 1,786 3
    4 (↑1) Argentina (ARG) 1,758.29 (+7.78) 1,751 5
    5 (↓1) England (ENG) 1,755.52 1,756 4
    6 Italy (ITA) 1,740.77 1,741 6
    7 Spain (ESP) 1,704.75 1,705 7
    8 Portugal (POR) 1,660.25 1,660 8
    9 Denmark (DEN) 1,654.54 1,655 9
    10 (↑1) USA (USA) 1,654.53 (+6.02) 1,649 11
    11 (↓1) Netherlands (NED) 1,653.73 1,654 10
    12 Germany (GER) 1,648.33 1,648 12
    13 (↑1) Mexico (MEX) 1,645.66 (+7.36) 1,638 14
    14 (↓1) Switzerland (SUI) 1,642.83 1,643 13
    15 Croatia (CRO) 1,620.74 1,621 15
    16 Colombia (COL) 1,608.44 (+1.29) 1,607 16
    17 Uruguay (URU) 1,605.83 (+9.17) 1,597 17
    18 Sweden (SWE) 1,588.26 1,588 18
    19 Wales (WAL) 1,578.01 1,578 19
    20 (↑1) IR Iran (IRN) 1,565.05 (+7.47) 1,558 21

    If Canada beats the US, US drops 16.71 points
    If Canada and US draw, US drops 4.21 points
    If US beats Canada, US gains 8.29 points

    Our goal to reach Pot 2 (I still don't believe in getting Pot 1) is to finish in the top 16. Normally it would be the top 15 + Qatar that get in Pot 1 and Pot 2, but with Italy and/or Portugal failing to qualify, that opens up more leeway. Currently we are 49 points ahead of the 17th place team (Uruguay).

    As far as the Octagonal is concerned, I think a draw against Canada, and wins against Honduras and Panama should see us enough points to end qualification in the Top 16.
     
  25. VioletCrown

    VioletCrown Member+

    FC Dallas
    United States
    Aug 30, 2000
    Austin, Texas
    Club:
    Austin Aztex
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    There will never be a demoralized CONCACAF Central American team, especially when playing the US. I have a distinct memory, a few hexes ago, of someone getting knocked out on the last day by a long-eliminated CA team either tying or beating another team. Wish my memory were even more distinct to name the teams.

    That said, Honduras' only draws have come in the first two games of the sets, and are at the moment on five straight losses. If they give up points against El Salvador, they might not have anything left in them.
     

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