Not worth going back and forth on this issue with you, but IMO each game (friendly or competitive) can hold its own lessons if you are asking the right questions from it. On a separate issue: With many sides battling a long list of players testing positive for Covid and many players being sidelined from the upcoming qualifiers, I am wondering if we aren't going to be seeing a lot more upsets in the latter stages of the qualifiers? How is the situation with S.American teams on this point?
In SA this will probably be the best window in a while in that regard. Only Chile seems to have suffered a few covid cases. Argentina and Brazil have opted to rest out some players for health reasons (Messi, Neymar most notably) but they don't care. Teams like Uruguay, Venezuela and Peru that were suffering mightly from covid and injuries last few months will have most of their best players available this time.
https://stattosoftware.com/wc2022/ This is a fun little tool. Not without it's flaws mind you, which I'll mention below, but fun to play with. I ran 25 simulations. Maybe if I could code something to extract the results into a spreadsheet I'd do more, because 25 probably isn't enough, but here's what it came up with for qualifiers. CONMEBOL ECU (92): top 4 92%, playoff with Asia (lost) 8% COL (84): top 4 68%, playoff (won) 16%, (lost) 4%, not top 5 12% URU (76): top 4 32%, playoff (won) 44%, (lost) 8%, not top 5 16% CHI (12): top 4 8%, playoff (won) 4%, (lost) 8%, not top 5 84% BOL (8): playoff (won) 8%, not top 5 92% PAR (4): playoff (won) 4%, not top 5 96% This strikes me as too heavy on URU/COL. I do think those are the most 2 likely, but not this much. Peru not showing up at all makes no sense. Beating Asia 19/25 seems about right. CONCACAF USA (100): top 3 96%, playoff (OFC) win 4% MEX (96): top 3 84%, playoff win 12%, not top 4 4% CAN (92): top 3 76%, playoff win 16%, playoff loss 4%, not top 4 4% PAN (76): top 3 44%, playoff win 32%, playoff loss 8%, not top 4 16% CRC (12): playoff win 12%, playoff loss 4%, not top 4 84% JAM (8): playoff win 8%, not top 4 92% A bit too optimistic for the US, but largely this makes sense to me. Beating OFC 21/25 is probably a bit high (the OFC generator almost seemed random; I didn't record the team each time, but I don't think NZL had anything close to a majority) AFC (I didn't count Iran and KOR- assumed those were 100%) JPN (92): top 2 92%, lose to other 3rd 4%, lose to SAm 4% KSA (80): top 2 76%, lose to other 3rd 16%, lose to SAm 4%, beat SAm 4% AUS (44): top 2 32%, lose to other 3rd 28%, lose to SAm 28%, beat SAm 12% UAE (8): lose to other 3rd 16%, lose to SAm 28%, beat SAm 8%, not top 3 48% IRQ (0): lose to other 3rd 16%, lose to SAm 12%, not top 3 72% LEB (0): lose to other 3rd 16%, not top 3 84% SYR (0): lose to other 3rd 4%, not top 3 96% No scenarios where JPN/AUS/KSA aren't top 3- seems right. Tool suggests getting 3rd in Group A isn't a dead end; it isn't, but these numbers seem high, beating the Group B team roughly half the time.
Colombia has a couple of guys with covid. As for Colombia and Uruguay's chances it may be a bit high BUT based on opponents and history against opponents My Colombia has a good chance on that alone. (Not sure the stats posted take that into account but Colombia usually dominates Peru and Bolivia at home and that should seal it.) I have been like a broken record saying I think Uruguay fails to make it. I think maybe Chile will probably knock them out. But who knows. Stats and history will be thrown out the window in a weird cycle such as this one.
I thought with Omicron being (hopefully/seemingly) less dangerous but a lot more contagious and prevalent, what we have recently witnessed in CAF in AFCON (and now in Iran and Iraq etc in their upcoming WCQ), would be replicated elsewhere, namely waking up to find out half the team testing positive for Covid and ineligible to play. Good to hear that's not been the case in S. America for now. I am also wondering if the airport closures and weather are only impacting Iran? Most of our Euro based players fly to Iran via Istanbul, but their flights have been canceled and some (e.g., Taremi) have been literally left stranded in no-where land in little known towns, prompting all-sorts of amusing pics of him trying to make it to Iran via the land routes that are open. (It doesn't look like he will make it for the Iraq WCQ).
Every TST7 says high demand even IRAN, which teams are most likely to qualify with a low chance of demand for tst7, or do you think its pot luck?
Panama (though you are in the wrong thread - https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/going-to-qatar-2022-tickets-accommodations-etc.2118067/unread)
Colombia makes top 5 99% sure if they reach 24 points. GD will be a certain favorable tie breaker against Peru and Uruguay and only likely to improve with the easy Bolivia home game.
My updated and finalised list of 32 teams. I'm using my initial list from 21 October as a guide to demonstrate what has changed for me over the last three months. Bear in mind this is my personal guess. Your guess is as good as mine. Teams correctly predicted to qualify France Belgium Netherlands Croatia England Spain Serbia Brazil Argentina Teams not picked that DID already qualify Switzerland Teams retained from my original list Portugal Ecuador Colombia Uruguay Mexico Canada USA Morocco Tunisia Iran South Korea Saudi Arabia Japan Teams entering my list Czech Republic Scotland Nigeria Cameroon Egypt New Zealand Teams dropping out of my list Sweden Italy Wales Algeria Mali Australia
Here my list by confederation: UEFA: (13) Serbia, Spain, Switzerland, France, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Croatia, England, Germany, Scotland, Czech Republic, Portugal CONMEBOL: (5) Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador, Colombia, Uruguay (beating Australia in playoff) CONCACAF: (3) USA, Mexico, Canada CAF: (5) Egypt, Cameroon, Nigeria, Morocco, Tunisia AFC: (5) Qatar, Iran, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Japan OFC: (1) New Zealand (beating Panama in playoff) Notes - Qatar are sole debutants - 9 Teams make it that were not present at Russia 2018 - Canada (1986) and Scotland (1998) return after long hiatus -Noteworthy omissions include Italy, Sweden, Russia, Chile, Costa Rica, Algeria, Senegal, Australia
Your results of that tool seem for the most part reasonable to me. In fact my predictions are pretty similair. What I disagree on is that the CONCACAF team would be strongly favoured against the OFC in the playoffs. 21/25 is ridiculously high. I have it coming down to a Panama-New Zealand clash. I give the edge to the "All Whites" in this one. I expect them back for the first time since 2010 when they left the tournament unbeaten with three draws.
Chile will imo draw Argentina and lose in La Paz this window. I don't see how in that case they would be able to push for a playoff spot. I expect Uruguay to get their act together with their new manager.
Let's see. I'm a little concerned for Canada now that Alphonso Davies is out for an unknown period of time. They are only 2 points ahead of Panama in 4th and have to play in Panama on the final matchday.
My pick that New Zeland makes it back is under the condition that they don't face any of USA, Mexico or Canada. Canada with Davies would beat New Zealand. So, there's a lifeline in case they should drop down to 4th. Panama on the other hand imo have to finish top three. I regard New Zealand a bad match up for this ageing Panamian side.
I wouldn't bet a dime on football games, and which side will/will not qualify (except for those who have already earned something very close to the points they will need) until there is more stable environment than what we have been witnessing in recent weeks. Right now, you have a situation where many teams have a slew of players who test positive for Covid, are put in quarantine, with the whole team (from managers to players) uncertain whether they will test positive/negative for Covid 24 hours before the match. How can a manager come up with any tactical plans when he can't be sure (until 24 hours before the match) how many of his players will even be eligible to play?
I see you predict Czech Republic will win away twice and advance in UEFA Path B. Just wondering what your thinking is on that? Did you factor in the possibility that Russia could be banned if Putin invades Ukraine?
We have only two Slavic nations qualified right now with Croatia and Serbia. Going back to 1998 we have had always at least three Slavic nations at the World Cup. And interestingly always at least one Slavic nation that didn't made the previous edition. Ukraine and Czech Republic are the Slavic nations in the playoffs that didn't qualify for Russia 2018. Both have to do it the hard way with two road games. For some reason I believe in Scotland's chances to emerge from path A. They have made a lot of progress. Ukraine might play the better football than the Czechs but you never know what you get from them. Czech Republic are a very stubborn side and difficult to put away. I think they can set up in a pragmatic way and get results on the road. They have Patrick Schick upfront who scored 18 goals in the Bundesliga this season. I think they can win maybe one game in regulation time and win another on penalties. I don't find Sweden particularly convincing since the EUROs. They seem to have dipped in form. I assume it has something to do that they are an ageing squad. I have the Czechs getting the better of Russia in the final. Russia is honestly quite mediocre. I don't find them any impressive. If the Czechs do manage to get over Sweden they can win this one as well. Albeit hosting a playoff is obviously an advantage I don't think that all games will end with the hosts advancing. I guess there will be a couple of games where the hosts will fail to capitalise on home advantage. For me the teams in path B are all very close to each other in quality. You can pick any side honestly. I just like some traits of this Czech team and I think they could do well in this path.
I'm disappointed about this. Its not that I disagree with you, I'm disappointed that our recent form has put us in this position. On the plus side we aren't at the point where we need other teams to do us a favour. Hopefully two wins this week keeps us in that position.
An Australia - Uruguay Reboot would be fun. Not going to lie. Or even a rematch against Peru. I think it will be Chile -Japan but we shall see. Can be any one of those or other combos.
Chile will 200% not qualify. I can bet even my house on it Without Vidal and Isla and with Aranguiz, Medel and Pulgar not in best condition they are getting clapped either tomorrow or in Bolivia. And they 400% sure aren't getting points in Brazil.
I still think they can keep within 2 points of Uruguay by the Final match day and beat them. They have gotten results in Bolivia before. Brazil seems to always beat them yes. I think even without those guys they can get a positive result against Argentina.
Even if Chile are within 3 points of Uruguay going into that last match day they can jump them if goal differential does not change much.
They got results in Bolivia back when the team wasn't a retirement home. I'm pretty sure they will play a much better match against Argentina (unmotivated opponent without their 2 best players) than with the bolis.