Yeah, Scotland improved a lot under Steve Clarke. Beating Denmark is an impressive feat considering that not many teams managed that over the last years. They are defensively a very sound team. With Gilmore, McGregor, McGinn and Adams they got quality going forward. They are also physically a strong side. They can count on their playoff experience to EURO 2020. So, the players are familiar with the pressure that comes with playoffs. I can see why people would pick them out of path A.
I think, generally speaking, it is. In your example, Bolivia's legitimate home advantage would still have to survive a return leg in circumstances that should be in favour of their opponents.
Exactly that and they have Andy Robertson of Liverpool and McTominay of Manchester United in their ranks but under Steve Clarke they have improved a lot
Bolivia is an extreme example but I take your point. I think in general the traditional 2 legged playoffs were more favorable to CONMEBOL teams than the format we have for 2022 qualifying. I am not sure travelling to Australia and playing in front of a pro-Aussie crowd is significantly more difficult than travelling to Qatar and playing in front of an indifferent crowd. But in the former case, they could survive a bad result and just win at home in the other leg.
But yeah now the playoffs are a one off game but that's the best part it adds to the unpredictability of it
None of the South American teams we played came away from Australia with a win. Argentina managed a 1-1 draw in 1993. Uruguay lost 1-0 both times. The only world cup qualifier we have lost in the last 40 years at home was a 1-0 loss to China in a dead rubber when we fielded our Olympic team in 2008. The crowds aren't super intimidating, but the travel times and jet lag makes it tough for a lot of visiting teams.
Sure. I mean, that supports my point. The jet lag to Qatar is just as bad and if a CONMEBOL team leaves Qatar with a 1-0 loss or even a draw they might be out, whereas they leave Australia with a draw/loss there is 90 minutes in front of 70k home supporters to rectify the situation.
I dont care much about teams needing home crowds to win matches. I'm more concerned about fluke outcomes from one single match, regardless of where it's played. Even on neutral territory I like the idea of 2 matches.
While I understand your concern about a fluke result, and also agree with the part I have highlighted, nonetheless to have these teams stay in Qatar for 2 matches in your suggestion, to play twice against the same team in the same venue, doesn't sound right to me. If it was up to me, the 4 playoff teams (e.,g., Peru, Australia, New Zealand, Panama) would all be placed in a single group, play 3 matches in Qatar, with the top 2 advancing. They could play the games every other day over a 6-7 day period, giving an advantage to sides with better depth (which is fine in my book).
With reference to my last post, they could even do it in 2 games in Qatar. For example: winner of (Panama) v (New Zealand) vs loser of (Peru v Australia); and winner of (Peru v Australia) vs loser of (Panama) v (New Zealand). The sides with most points advance.
So if Australia fly to Bolivia and lose 3:0 because of the altitude at La Paz, and beat Bolivia by fewer goals at home, losoing on aggregate, that better reflects which side will do better in WC2002 in Qatar, than if Australia defeated Bolivia !:0 in Qatar to qualify?
We played a game there in early September and by all reports the stadium air conditioning worked very well with on field temperatures in the middle twenties compared to middle thirties outside. Evening matches shouldn't be an issue. The playing surface was excellent as well.
Why would winning at home by a better margin than losing away due, in my example, to altitude, have greater weight than losing in the same venue as the World Cup itself, when it comes to figuring out which teams can perform best in the latter setting, not the former? Generally speaking, when one wants to test a proposition, one tries to simulate the same conditions and not entirely different ones.
But who is to say Bolivia will even finish in 5th. Meaning we still have 4 games left to go. Meaning any of the countries could land in 5th in CONMEBOL but depending on who it is, they are going to have to face an Asian team in the playoff. If that team happens to be Australia, it is one of those interesting encounters that could go either way.
I don't think Nigeria should be ruled out of 2022 world cup just yet i heard people not putting not Nigeria to qualify yes i don't think they will qualify but again i will be a bit surprised. They were not too bad at the 2018 world cup they came within 4 minutes of knocking out Argentina and should arguably have had a penalty against Argentina with a Marcus rojo handball. To be honest Nigeria impressed me more in the 2018 world cup than in the 2014 world cup where they advanced out of the group stage.They advanced out of the group in the 2014 world cup but they were a bit lucky against Bosnia but unlucky against Iran.Yes I dont think they have any real world cup pedigree certainly not recently but i would like them not in a group with Argentina this time round if they do qualify. Nigeria not qualifying for the world cup would be as shocking as Italy or not Portugal not qualifying through UEFA considering they have just missed out on just one world cup since 1990 and that was on head to head with Angola in 2006.They are most consistent African team in terms of qualifying for the world cup in the recent era even more than Cameroon .Out of the Caf teams last world cup Senegal disappointed more since they had a easier group containing Poland Japan and Colombia more winnable than Argentina and Croatia and they were strongest African team on paper in the last world cup. Egypt disappointed me the most because they had the easiest group by far out of the african teams Russia Uruguay and Saudi Arabia. However Tunisia were not too bad and Morocco really impressed me the most out of the African teams more than Japan Spain Portugal and Mexico for instance who did advance out the groups last world cup and even England to a degree who reached semi finals would have struggled against Morocco.
Yes Nigeria is certainly the most consistent African team in terms of not only qualifying for the World Cup, but also in terms of progressing past the group stages. They've qualified for 6 world cups and passed the group stages 3 times. 2 of the times they did not progress, they were in the Group of Death. So yeah they are pretty consistent. Right now Nigeria is in a crisis with a string of poor performances and the coach is choosing players not based on merit. Under normal circumstances Nigeria should beat any pot 2 team to qualify. The only saving grace for Nigeria is they have the AFCON to hopefully turn things around, and if they can, and integrate a whole host of talented players who haven't even yet been fully brought into the fold, they could do well in Qatar I will wait until after the afcon to make any serious predictions about Nigeria, or any AFrican side to be honest. Nigeria has a very good crop of players right now. One of the best we have had in a while.
Also I think people in this forum are overrating Italy and Portugal as top teams just because they are most recent euro cup winners. If you look carefully Italy and Portugal in the world cup have been underperforming in world cups in the 21st century apart from 2006 .Italy are a great football nation having won 4 world cups and 2 euros but there world cup performances since 2006 have not been at level it should be for a top tier European team. Italy for some strange reason do well but in the euros but do poorly at recent world cups I mean in 2010 you would expect Italy to reach at least quarter finals considering they had Slovakia new comers new Zealand and Paraguay. The 2014 world cup Italy group stage exit was even more of a shock than 2010 because you would expect Italy to beat Uruguay and costa rica especially as Greece a much weaker team than Italy outplayed costa Rica. Heading into the 2014 world cup Italy were on the back of a strong euro 2012 final performance and reaching the Confed semi final a year before in 2013. The 2018 world cup qualifier failure was not much of shock however . Italy have not been consietnstly been doing well in world cups since the 1990s if look carefully i mean in the 1980s and 1990s Italy were very strong at world cups so i think if they that cant qualify for this world cup again after the 2018 failure there must be a structural problem in Italian football. Portugal for me are good team but i have not really considered them to be very great football nation. Portugal have a very good euro record like Italy but a relatively poor world cup record for the level of talent they produce. In 2002 and 2014 they should have at least made out of the groups they were in and probably made the quarter finals in at least one of them. In 2010 they were a bit unfortunate they came against brazil and a very good Spain side. In the 2018 world cups they were not really special except from the 1st game aginst Spain they a bit lucky against morocco and should have beaten Uruguay who were on paper they were better then. I mean out of the world cups i have seen Portugal they have passed the round of 16 only once in 2006. I don't really see how Portugal or even italy at the moment are more deserving of being in the world cup than the likes of Russia Sweden Poland wales Scotland Turkey Ukraine etc especially as Sweden and Russia have performed better than Portugal and Italy more recently in the world cup with less talent.
I don't agree with this. Nigeria was very bad in 2018, in terms of attitude especially. Horrendous match against Croatia doing nothing and horrendous match against the worst most disgraceful Argentina squad in history until Mascherano felt like gifting them a goal. Nigeria 2014 was quite less talented but you can say they did the best they could. I would say their losses to Argentina and France there were better played games than their losses to Croatia and Argentina in 2018. And Bosnia 2014 was a tougher opponent than Iceland 2018 too.