Concacaf v Oceania Playoffs drawn

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by Guinho, Nov 26, 2021.

  1. adam tash

    adam tash Member+

    Jul 12, 2013
    Barcelona, Spain
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    from 1950 -2002 south america won 8 of 12 world cups....thats insane.

    the continent only has 5% of the world population. they are the best. give it a rest.

    they have been down a bit in the last few but even in 2014 2 of the top 4 finishers were from s.america.

    id love to see how many WC ggg would lead the team to agisnt 5, 6 and 7 in S.america...he cant even handle panama and jamaica.

    i agree the last 2 or 3 teams in s. america are teams the usmnt can usualy do well against...but on the road? really really really doubt it.
     
  2. Editor In Chimp

    Editor In Chimp Member+

    Sep 7, 2008
    I used 2002 as a cut off because a) nothing prior to the 21st century is really relevant and b) as far as I am aware nobody that played in 2002 is still playing.

    They are quantitatively not the “best” confederation in the modern era. The “best” confederations win more than 0 times and have more than 1 finalist across 4 tournaments. They have demonstrated an inability to beat what are supposedly peer-level opponents in knockout games, ESPECIALLY Brazil, whose only semifinal appearance during this period came after beating CONMEBOL opponents (barely I might add). Their top teams are a step-down from the top teams in UEFA.

    They have an SEC-level reputation based on historical teams that predate a lot of current players’ dates of birth.

    The USMNT/Berhalter thing is irrelevant.
     
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  3. Editor In Chimp

    Editor In Chimp Member+

    Sep 7, 2008
    Now that I’ve typed all this, I’ve basically guaranteed an ARG/BRA final in Qatar.
     
  4. butters59

    butters59 Member+

    Feb 22, 2013
    In 2 games, home and away.
     
  5. Editor In Chimp

    Editor In Chimp Member+

    Sep 7, 2008
    I’d say in a hypothetical Hex with those 5 teams, and the US core roster anywhere from 2009-2016, we would finish first or second. Maybe Ecuador from that timeframe is better. But that’s neither here nor there.
     
  6. deejay

    deejay Member+

    Feb 14, 2000
    Tarpon Springs, FL
    Club:
    Jorge Wilstermann
    Nat'l Team:
    Bolivia
    Currently, the top teams of UEFA are better. I would never say, for instance, that Copa America is currently as good or better as the Euros. The qualifiers are a completely different case.

    Argentina and Brazil, as good as they are, never qualify undefeated. Every cycle, they drop home points and lose most of their away games. The reason why they mostly always qualify anyway is because they have a round robin format and play three games per window. That was instituted a few decades ago because the bottom half had gotten too good. Even then in most cycles one of the two are only a win and a few goals ahead in qualification. There is very little margin for error. The big dogs qualify by staying hyper-focused and letting their depth and quality win out.

    In UEFA, the big countries rarely have issues. The bottom third is absolute dreck. The bottom fifth are micro-countries. The only real issues happen from the absolute idiocy that is their qualification method. Germany, for instance, had an easy group. For some reason they mailed it in at home against N. Macedonia but it didn't really matter because they went to N. Macedonia and killed them 4-0. In C'BOL you can't mail it in like that. Italy, meanwhile had a much more competitive group and dropped three winnable games and now are in the playoffs. If UEFA would remove the minnows earlier and make their groups larger I might be singing a different tune but they don't and their playoffs are therefore laughable.
     
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  7. Editor In Chimp

    Editor In Chimp Member+

    Sep 7, 2008
    I mean, Argentina in 2017 finished with a damp thud and still qualified. Taking 6 points from the last 15 and still finishing outside the playoff feels like some margin for error.
     
  8. deejay

    deejay Member+

    Feb 14, 2000
    Tarpon Springs, FL
    Club:
    Jorge Wilstermann
    Nat'l Team:
    Bolivia
    Oh, man! I remember that! I think you are off base, though, Argentina had issues all qualifiers. They started off with a home loss to Ecuador and they had to scratch and claw throughout all the qualifiers. It ended in a really wild finish. They were a little lucky at the last when they played away to an already eliminated Ecuador. Chile had to play at Brazil while Colombia and Peru had to play against each other. Argentina needed to win at Ecuador and they did. Paraguay needed to win at home and they lost shockingly against Venezuela. To my eyes, Argentina never mailed it in or relaxed. Every game was tough for them.
     
  9. grandinquisitor28

    Feb 11, 2002
    Nevada
    I was all set to trash your argument but needed that pesky thing called evidence to really shred it properly for half of my argument (the easy half is the "this is a world cup, not a champions league of the best South American and European teams" you can watch the Euro's and Copa America for that). Funny thing happened, evidence pooped in my cornflakes.

    23 out of the last 29 Conmebol sides to qualify advanced to the knockouts going back to 1998. Exclude the dumpster fire that was 2002 for them, and it's really, really impressive. 21 of the past 24 have made it to the knockouts. Good Lord. That's absurd.

    Now in fairness there are lots of counters: they're pretty much never in pot 3 or 4, and unlike most other regions, South America isn't made of a gazillion countries, they did a good job of creating nice, fat, populous individual countries filled with gazillions of of potential soccer players other than Uruguay which is basically like a cousin to the former Yugoslavian States, and the Netherlands in terms of habitually punching above their populous weight. Some countries in Conmebol have advantages others don't, whether it be population base or other factors I'd rather not delve too much into, but suffice it to say, Conmebol is kind of perfectly designed for soccer success. They fell in love with the sport early, many of the countries are quite large w/a nice population base, most have room for growth, and unlike Africa, where you have a gazllion countries, or many other confederations, you've just got the 9.

    But the track record is still quite absurd:
    1998: 4/5 advance, 2/4 to the QF's and/or beyond.
    2002: 2/5 advance, 1/5 to the QF's and beyond
    2006: 3/4 advance, 2/4 to the QF's and beyond.
    2010: 5/5 advance, 4/5 to the QF's and beyond
    2014: 5/5 advance (then a bunch were matched up against eachother immediately)
    2018: 4/5 advance, 2/4 to the QF's....

    That's just absolutely nuts.

    So I can see the argument for expanding their allotment, nobody consistently delivers at the World Cup at least at the Group Stage, like South America. Exclude '02, and over the last nearly 25 years they've hit nearly .900 in terms of advancement.

    Just crazy.

    And yet, this is the world cup, we watch to see everybody have their chance, not just the world powers, and as others have argued, other than Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay (on and off depending upon whether they're average Uruguay or Golden Generation Uruguay)the rest of the region lacks consistent knockout impact, it's more of a case where South America has two truly elite powers, and then a whole bunch of teams that are usually top 10-40 sides in the world (basically 3-5 nations depending upon how things play out: right now, South America is mostly on a down cycle in my view) and can beat almost anyone that isn't European elite, plus they are the masters of the dark arts, and so as long as they avoid European refs, they can often get away with nonsense.

    Anyway, w/the new tournament growing to 48 by '26, it's immaterial, Conmebol will get another 1/2 or 1.5 spots or whatever, and at that point it's tipping towards silly (more than 66% can qualify? especially when you consider that 7th-9th place in conmebol is usually Bolivia and Venezuela (who generally suck), and whatever solid team is in a real bad way).

    Fun digging up the facts on Conmebol though, good lord are they consistently good and often great, but I have a felling '22 will be like '02, we'll see though. Playing in Qatar is likely to their advantage.
     
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  10. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    For those bemoaning the fact that Italy & Portugal cannot both make it:

    1) UEFA went to 10 groups precisely to avoid 2 "big" countries being drawn into the same WCQ group. They largely succeeded. Germany, Italy, France, Spain, England, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Portugal were all in different groups. All those teams were seeded. Along with Denmark & Croatia. 8/10 of the seeded teams won their groups.

    2) The problem (if you view it as such) is that Italy lost out to Switzerland (the highest ranked non-seed at the start) and Portugal to Serbia (who were also Pot 2).

    3) If you make fewer groups woth more teams, you are gonna get more big teams drawn against each other, not less. And it means more games. Germany, Italy, France, Spain, England, and the Netherlands are pretty consistently excellent, so there has to be at least 6 groups. Belgium, Portugal, Denmark, Croatia, & Switzerland would have been 5 of the pot 2 teams. That is nasty. Some big teams missing out there, for sure. AND with bigger groups, more games played.

    4) More groups means fewer games. Too few games means one fluke result or an untimely injury can kill off a team. Big teams will hate that. Plus, that would likely mean no playoffs. 55 teams. 13 groups of 5 instead of 10 of 5 or 6 would shave some games. But without playoffs, many teams would be eliminated quickly. More meaningless games.

    5) It was more than one result this time.

    Portugal drew (0-0) with Ireland, list at home to Serbia when a draw would have done, and drew 2-2 at Serbia (though they kind of got jobbed by the ref there). That is 3 subpar results out of 8 games. The only decent team they beat was Ireland. Serbia got 4 points in their head to heads.

    Italy played 8 games and won 4. Three of those at the start of 2021. After winning the Euro's, they: drew Bulgaria at home, drew the Swiss away, beat Lithuania away, drew the Swiss at home, and drew Northern Ireland away. 1 win in their last 5 matches. The Swiss had a superior GD and a better record in the non-head to head matches. They also beat France at the Euro's and went out to Spain in PKs in the QFs. They hardly stink.

    6) The "problem" is simply that there are more than 10 (or 13) good sides in UEFA. No matter how you structure it, the possibility exists that one of the "bigger" countries does not make it.

    Besides the obvious 5 that have win the WC and three times losing Finalists Netherlands: Croatia made the finals last time (and the semis in 1998); Belgium is the #1 team in the world, Sweden have made the WC SFs 4 times (1 final); Portugal have made 2 WC semis, 2 Euro finals (winning once), and made 3 other Euro semis I can think of; Czech Republic/Czechoslovakia has made 2 WC finals & 2 Euro finals, winning the Euro's once; the Danes have won the Euros before; Hungary made 2 WC Finals; Serbia/Yugoslavia made numerous WC QFs, and 2 semis, and 2 Euro finals, USSR/Russia won a Euro and lost 3 finals, and made the WC semis once; even the Greeks won the Euro's once. Poland has made 2 WC SFs, Austria, Turkey, and Bulgaria one WC semi. I can remember a golden Romanian generation making the quarters. While the Swiss have not gone to the SFs before, they have been to double digit World Cups.
    ---------

    UEFA will get more berths when things (unfortunately) expand to 48 teams. This will alleviate this problem somewhat, but there are gonna be 20+ WC worthy sides in UEFA almost every time.
     
  11. grandinquisitor28

    Feb 11, 2002
    Nevada
    We already know a crap Costa Rica side pulled a 0-1 home, 1–1 road result in a playoff w/Semifinalist Uruguay in ‘09. I’m not buying fortress conmebol nonsense. Good yes, but not a fortress.

    And CAF qualifying remains the king stupid of regional qualifying. Cycle after cycle they find a way to dump 2 or 3 of their best sides out of their final five due to the craziness of qualifying. Maybe AFC style is impossible due to the sheer size of the confederation but if there’s anyway to create the AFC approach (the best top team protection Racket by any confederation cycle in and out) they must do so. Find a process to get you 10 finalists then stuff them in two groups of 5. Take 4 sides and have the third place finishers battle it out for the last slot. Instead we have a process that habitually finds a way to stuff three of their top 6-7 sides in a group that isn’t even ticket delivering (in ‘18 Nigeria, Cameroon, Algeria and ‘12 Cup of Nations winner Zambia were dumped into the same group).

    Those CAF teams aren’t Conmebol good, but away games are legit scary and there are 15-20 sides capable of shocking anyone in the region on any given day.
     
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  12. TrueCrew

    TrueCrew Member+

    Dec 22, 2003
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Crap, for those thinking seeding:

    https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men?dateId=id13471

    1. Belgium: In (Pot 1).
    2. Brazil: In (Pot 1).
    3. France: In (Pot 1).
    4. England: In (Pot 1).
    5. Argentina: In (Pot 1).
    -----------------
    6. Italy: PO pod with Port/Tur/NMac. 1,740.
    7. Spain: In. 1,704.
    ----------------
    8. Portugal: PO with Ita/Tur/NMac. 1,660.
    9. Denmark: In. 1,654.
    10. Netherlands: In. 1,653.
    11. Germany: In. 1,648.
    12. USA: In progress. #2. 1,647.
    13. Switzerland: In. 1,642.
    14. Mexico: In progress. #3. 1,638.
    15. Croatia: In. 1,620.
    ---------------------------
    16. Colombia: In progress. #4. 1,607.
    17. Uruguay: In progress. #7. 1,596.
    18. Sweden: PO w/ Rus/Pol/Czech. 1,588.
    19. Wales: PO w/ Sco/Ukr/Austria. 1,578.
    20. Senegal. In progress: KO tie. 1,561.
    21. Iran. In progress. #1. 1,557.
    22. Peru. In progress. #5 (PO). 1,551.
    23. Serbia. In. 1,547.
    ------------

    That is everyone within 100 points of us. Unless we totally collapse, I think Pot 2 is relatively secure.

    Italy are pot 1 if they make it. Which would ensure we are pot 2 at best. We'd have to win out to have ANY chance to catch Spain, and I think 57 points is too far to come, even if we did.

    But if Portugal make it, at 1660, on say a draw, without a win over Italy in regular time, I think we could catch them with a strong finish (no losses, perhaps 1 away draw), and a win at Azteca.

    If somehow neither Italy NOR Portugal make it, we have a strong shot at Pot 1 with a strong finish.
    ---------

    I would not be surprised to see FIFA use different dates for the various confederations. Usually, everything concludes at around the same time (POs notwithstanding). This time, it is all over the map.

    I think it would be fair to take each team's points at the end if the regular qualifying process for the confed. I'd use UEFA's now, though after POs is possible. CONMEBOL's & CONCACAF at the end of the single table round. Asia at the end of their double table. And Africa after their KO ties.
     
  13. butters59

    butters59 Member+

    Feb 22, 2013
    I think that we would be destroyed in SA, where Brasil, Argentina, and Uruguay are suffering, and needed St. Paul in February to get results at home. There is no reason to believe that we would do better anywhere in SA, then in CA, and we are struggling get 50% there.
     
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  14. Guinho

    Guinho Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes, bless their hearts
    Estonia
    May 27, 2001
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Well, many UEFA groups have no hard games for the top teams, though sometimes a random result will trip them up because it is so prone to random results. And some Uefa groups will have no teams much better than average
     
  15. Guinho

    Guinho Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes, bless their hearts
    Estonia
    May 27, 2001
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    I would say that the best of CONCACAF would be huge favorites against the worst of conmebol. Mexico usually finishes in the top four when they play Copa America and it isn’t like those lower ranked teams do better at the World Cup. Paraguay, for example, I don’t think has ever beaten the US
     
  16. Guinho

    Guinho Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes, bless their hearts
    Estonia
    May 27, 2001
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Brazil and Argentina are already qualified with many games to spare and Brazil dropped 2 points in 12 games before qualifying. Argentina is also undefeated through 13. That isn’t “suffering”.
    Uruguay, well, has a lot of draws because they struggle to score most games. They’re struggling.
     
  17. butters59

    butters59 Member+

    Feb 22, 2013
    This isn't the first and only quals. Argentina finished 2 points ahead of 6th place in 2018. They got 10 out of 27 points away. They won the last round at Equador, with a tie the were finishing 5th, with a loss 6th. Luckily for them Equador was eliminated before that game.
     
  18. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    #93 Clint Eastwood, Nov 30, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2021
    We've played Uruguay this cycle. 1-1. And by the way, we started a midfield trio of Lletget, Roldan, and Yueill in that game against the likes of Rodrigo Betancur of Juventus. I saw it with my own eyes.

    The US has played Uruguay 5 times since 1990 (our modern history). Uruguay has only won once. Our loss was 1-0 at the Copa America in 1993. That was in Ecuador I believe. Uruguay in fact has never "destroyed" us anywhere.

    My favorite Uruguay versus USA result is when we beat them in the Round of 16 at the 2007 U20 World Cup. Forward line of Cavani and Suarez? No problem. Michael Bradley was immense in that match.

    We in fact, have a very good record against all South American teams other than Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina. Of the last 6 times we've played Chile, they've only won once. We have a winning record against Peru, Paraguay, Venezuela, etc.

    Our worst track record against any opponent on planet Earth is Brazil. We've played them 19 times. 1 win 0 draws 18 losses. That one win was the infamous Kasey Keller game at the 1998 Gold Cup. We have famous wins against Argentina and Colombia.

    What's happening in South America for CONMEBOL WCQing right now was expected. Uruguay and Chile got old. Its the same as what everybody saw coming with Costa Rica in CONCACAF. We saw it from a mile away. I don't know why folks are acting like it's a disaster if they don't qualify. They're not playing well. If one of them ends up in that playoff, they can easily lose it one of the big Asian teams. And I certainly think we could beat them in that playoff too. I'd rather face New Zealand if it comes to that, of course. CONCACAF is happy with that draw.
     
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  19. adam tash

    adam tash Member+

    Jul 12, 2013
    Barcelona, Spain
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    put it this way - from a USMNT-perspective - who would we rather face for that .5 playoff -

    oceania, asia or south america?

    i think clearly oceania...then asia.....and then way less appealing ...south america.

    peru, chile colombia urugay all within a point of each other.....4-7th places.

    and for the record i think there is a non-zero chance the usmnt ends up in that playoff.

    imagine having to beat colombia or uruguay to go to the WC.....if people like that idea, I dont understand.
     
  20. adam tash

    adam tash Member+

    Jul 12, 2013
    Barcelona, Spain
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    friendly matches are a different beast.

    even from the gold cup to now actual world cup qualies you see a huge step up from teams like honduras, jamaica and panama etc.

    how many official matches has the us won against s america? not many.....although when they have it is usually when the usmnt has a very good and experienced team full of seasoned vets.
     
  21. Guinho

    Guinho Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes, bless their hearts
    Estonia
    May 27, 2001
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Sure, but that is a long way from saying the US would get destroyed. If you are Colombia, who would you rather be in a playoff against, New Zealand, Australia, or the US? Not the US, for sure. That doesn’t mean Colombia would be “destroyed” playing in CONCADECAF.
     
  22. adam tash

    adam tash Member+

    Jul 12, 2013
    Barcelona, Spain
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    despite rather lackluster wc performances, i dont think the usmnt would qualify for any world cups if they had to go through the african region. very very difficult to qualify through that process
     
  23. adam tash

    adam tash Member+

    Jul 12, 2013
    Barcelona, Spain
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    whats even crazier is before 2002 - 8 of 12 wc winners....thats insane!
     
  24. Editor In Chimp

    Editor In Chimp Member+

    Sep 7, 2008
    That’s very much moving the goalposts. Of course if you’re given the choice between playing a terrible semi-pro team from OFC vs. playing a competent one from CONMEBOL, why would anyone choose the latter?
     
  25. papermache16

    papermache16 Member+

    Jan 30, 2009
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Paraguay beat USA in the 2007 Copa America... but it was a very B team. Ricardo Clark had our only goal.
     
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