I don't have a problem with Italy playing Portugal. Deciding home and away by draw is farcical though. Have the playoff on neutral ground.
The incentive for either Japan or Australia to qualify directly is now even more blatant. CONMEBOL lost overrall on quality but at the same time I'm not impressed by Asian teams (especially Japan and Australia) either. I think it will be the first World Cup that Australia will miss since they joined the AFC.
If we continue to play like we did in the last few games I agree with you. If we don't improve we wont make the IC playoff. The recent draws didn't do either my own nation or the nation of my ancestry any good. Asia drew the toughest playoff path, and Macedonia have Italy and Portugal (probably the two strongest teams from the 12) in their path. At least the Macedonians have reached a level they have never reached before. I would like us (Australia) to qualify but it may be better to miss out and realise we need to do a bit more to develop our young players. Our better younger players this cycle seem to be players who were developed elsewhere and persuaded to play for the nation of one of their parents.
I wonder how much money fifa will lose if Ronaldo isn't in the world cup, and if Portugal fail to get through will Ronaldo retire from international football?
Well, that could be said of every team involved in the playoffs, which I feel is a bit harsh. 12 nations were guaranteed to be playing in these playoffs no matter who they were. The format is simply ridiculous regardless of the teams involved.
None. TV rights fees were negotiated a long time ago. It's no different than when Italy & the USA missed WC 2018.....
All of UEFA qualifying is ridiculous, as is the fact that for political reasons UEFA only gets 13 spots. UEFA could easily avoid having any playoffs by having a preliminary round to reduce their field from 55 teams to 52 teams (i.e. having teams 50-55 play eliminators) and then having 13 four-team groups. That would only require six matchdays as well, instead of twelve.
A few years ago Cristiano said 2022 would be his final international tournament. https://bleacherreport.com/articles...es-2022-qatar-world-cup-future-portugal-plans He may not have to wait that long. Then again, if Portugal fail to qualify would he continue on to 2026?
I actually believe playoffs are a good thing, because it somehow solve the problem of uneven groups (one weaker team qualifying from a softer group whereas a stronger team gets eliminated out of a tougher group). The problem is UEFA seeding system for the playoff. The 12 teams have been divided into two groups of 6 for only 3 qualifying spots. So basically, that means UEFA seeds were aimed at better distributing final playoffs game (last 6), but not to better distribute qualified teams (last 3). As a matter of fact, without any seeding at all, Italy and Portugal had as many chances to play in the same path than with that UEFA weird seeding system. This leads me to think UEFA wanted to maximize final qualifying playoffs, because they take the revenues, and that they couldn't care less about who would actually qualify out of it, because FIFA takes world cup revenues. If UEFA really wanted to qualify the best teams, then it would have seeded all 3 teams with best FIFA ranking in different pathes. But that's not what it did.
It's hard to have much sympathy for either Italy or Portugal when both had multiple chances to clinch. Heck....Portugal lost at home to Serbia thanks to an 89th minute winner from Mitrovic. Italy missed in PK in the 86th minute at home to Switzerland that would have clinched qualification and than were held to a draw in Belfast by Northern Ireland. Both have nobody to blame but themselves....
To me it isn't about blame, but which teams help make the World Cup a better tournament. Not just in a footballing sense either. If Italy fail to qualify, they will be missed. They are European champions and have generally played well. Even Portugal will be missed if they don't qualify. And I actually think Turkey, despite arguably being the most inconsistent and unpredictable side in UEFA, has to make it to a World Cup in Qatar (their closest Arab ally and a fellow Muslim country). OTOH, none of the remaining Euro teams, even the better ones like Sweden, have enough going for them to make their potential World Cup absence something I would miss. Now, when you have 3 of the European sides I definitely want to see in Qatar in the same playoff path, meaning 2 won't be qualifying regardless, it becomes easy to see why I am at least not happy with the UEFA draw. And that is not the only part of the news about the draw from last night that has left me disappointed. I am actually even more upset about the weird playoff path for the intercontinental playoffs. To me, we should be moving in the direction of unifying Conmebol with Concacaf and the AFC with the OFC. To defy all those things, and create a situation where at least one of the top teams in the AFC, namely Japan or Australia, may end up missing a World Cup hosted by the AFC, while dramatically improving the chances of a side like Panama qualifying to the tournament, makes no sense to me. I have nothing against Panama, but they add nothing to the World Cup equation. They are no longer debutantes. They aren't such a good side, no matter how one spins the issue. And if by chance they have enough merit, the team to prove this against wouldn't be New Zealand but Conmebol's #5. Incidentally, because of the draw, the chances of Conmebol's 5th team making the World Cup have also taken a nose dive. Neither Peru nor Colombia will find beating Australia or Japan in Qatar remotely an easy task.
Regarding the UEFA playoffs: I think FIFA should have formed 4 pots of 3 teams (and not 2 pots of 6 teams), so that, in each path, we would have had one team from each pot. As they seeded the pots using the points obtained in qualifying, those 4 pots would have been: Pot 1: Portugal, Scotland, Italy. Pot 2: Russia, Sweden, Wales. Pot 3: Turkey, Poland, North Macedonia. Pot 4: Ukraine, Austria and Czechia. I disagree about Turkey. They will not be missed if they fail to qualify. They are a team too unpredictable: we never know which Turkey is going to show up. Regarding the IPOs: Given that FIFA decided to play in a neutral ground, I would have preferred a round-robin tournament, and let the two best teams grab the remaining slots. Talks about merging CONMEBOL and CONCACAF are not new, but I do not think it will ever happen. Too many political issues: Argentina and Brazil do not want to lose their power in CONMEBOL, while Mexico and the US want to keep their hold in CONCACAF. And I believe FIFA cannot force them (otherwise, they would have done it a long time ago). Given all the talks about "my confederation is better than the others and deserve more slots", I think they should show it in the field. For me, there should be MORE slots decided by IPOs (not just two). Include teams from UEFA and CAF, and have 6-8 slots be up for grabs in those playoffs. In a way, IPOs for 2026 are in the right direction, but they are only for two teams.
The uefa play offs are very hard to predict. Macedonia is the only squad that won't qualify with certainty.
North Macedonia will be deprived of Elif Elmas' services on top. He misses the game due to yellow card suspension. I would consider a road win in Italy in a do or die game even a much greater upset than against a struggling Germany with Löw back in March.
+ I am all for more intercontinental qualifiers and don't favor more than a bare minimum of guaranteed allocations for any confederation regardless of history, pedigree or any of the usual arguments. The purpose of the bare minimum would be to ensure geographic and cultural diversity, with the very best in each confederation getting to qualify directly. All the rest would need to prove they belong on the field against teams from other confederations.
No-one would miss old man Ronaldo at the World Cup. Haaland not being there is quite a bit more painful.
Some of the teams in the UEFA playoffs are quite seasoned when it comes to playoffs. Here are their records each in the recent past. Scotland Won 2 Lost 2 L to England for EURO 2000 L to Netherlands for EURO 2004 W vs Israel for EURO 2020 W vs Serbia for EURO 2020 Ukraine Won 1 Lost 5 L to Croatia for 1998 World Cup L to Germany for 2002 World Cup L to Greece for 2010 World Cup L to France for 2014 World Cup L to Slovenia for EURO 2000 W vs Slovenia for EURO 2016 Wales Won 0 Lost 1 L to Russia for EURO 2004 Austria Won 0 Lost 1 L to Turkey for 2002 World Cup Russia Won 1 Lost 2 L to Italy for 1998 World Cup L to Slovenia for 2010 World Cup W vs Wales for EURO 2004 Poland No playoff experience Sweden Won 2 Lost 1 L to Portugal for 2014 World Cup W vs Italy for 2018 World Cup W vs Denmark for EURO 2016 Czechia Won 2 Lost 1 L to Belgium for 2002 World Cup W vs Norway for 2006 World Cup W vs Montenegro for EURO 2012 Italy Won 1 Lost 1 W vs Russia for 1998 World Cup L to Sweden for 2018 World Cup North Macedonia Won 2 Lost 0 W vs Kosovo for EURO 2020 W vs Georgia for EURO 2020 Portugal Won 3 Lost 0 W vs Bosnia Herzego. for 2010 World Cup W vs Sweden for 2014 World Cup W vs Bosnia Herzego. for EURO 2012 Turkey Won 2 Lost 3 W vs Austria for 2002 World Cup L to Switzerland for 2006 World Cup W vs Rep. of Ireland for EURO 2000 L to Latvia for EURO 2004 L to Croatia for EURO 2012
My Pathway predictions and how I see them playing out now Scotland vs Ukraine= Scotland wins Wales vs Austria= Wales wins (Path A Final)= Scotland vs Wales= Scotland qualify for their first World Cup since France 1998; it will be their 9th appearance at a World Cup Russia vs Poland= Poland wins Sweden vs Czech Republic= Sweden wins (Path B Final)= Poland vs Sweden= Poland qualify for the World Cup; back to back World Cups now Italy vs North Macedonia= Italy wins Portugal vs Turkey= Portugal wins (Path C Final)= Portugal vs Italy= Portugal qualify for World Cup; European Champions Italy miss out on a 2nd consecutive World Cup especially missing out on Russia 2018 and then Qatar 2022, I think it happens. I think the Italians miss out. Why? Even though both Italy and Portugal are star studded having multiple stars on their national teams, Ronaldo is the GOAT. When the pressure is on, he generally performs at a very high level. If Ronaldo carries this Portuguese team on his back, then Italy could be in trouble.
I said it in the CONCACAF forum and I will say it here. All bets are off when it comes to the neutral site games for me. All it takes is some lucky bounce or bad ref call in crappy Qatar and a team can lose. The European ones I think are a bit more set up for Sweden and Italy to make it. But that is only cause my gut tells me Sweden is the best in their bracket while Turkey somehow lucks out against Portugal and then goes on to get clobbered by Italy after that emotional high of upset.
Sweden is not the best in the bracket. They lost in Greece. At euro they lost against Ukraine after tight matchs against Poland and Slovakia. Chances are very even between Russia Poland Sweden Czech.