UNC 2022

I root for Virgnia. I've made that clear in the past. But I've grown to respect and admire many teams in the ACC. Some rub me the wrong way (Clemson, Va Tech), some I have developed a soft spot for (Wake, NC State). If you think I've 'blasted' Carolina then the truth is you're just not remotely an objective person. You're a superfan who can't take anythng but praise. Just put me on ignore. I'm not going anywhere and I'm still quite puzzled by your reaction to me here, but there is definitely no point in any further discussion.

 

I'm not as offended as uncchamps2012 but it is hard to understand why you want to keep beating a dead horse. Yes, UNC lost in the first round, the first time, it's another sign of how more competitive the game has become, but we've known for some time the dynasty years are over. I don't think Carolina fans are particularly sensitive to being reminded that times are different; your posts, though, seem to be repetitive and have a rub-it-in quality that gets tiresome.

 

4 Final Fours/College Cups in 5 years is really good. Yes, one bad year but UNC program is trending up compared to early 2010s

 

It begins, and I expect a whole lot more of this to follow. Hallie Klanke transferring to University of Kansas.

A train of thought, one that I found interesting the more I looked at it. UNC was *very* young in 2021. 5 Seniors, 9 Juniors, 10 Sophomore, 13 Freshman. UNC will have 9 more Freshman recruits coming in next year. This doesn't include the likely red-shirted Emerson Elgin and Ally Sentnor. I don't know the red-shirt status of some of the other Freshman that disappeared on this roster: Anna Priborkina, Meilin Gregg, Asha Means, and most curiously, Annika Huhta.

Rachel Jones is coming back, and of the 4 Seniors leaving or potentially leaving only two played significant minutes this season: Dickey and Dorwart.

The Juniors that are returning are a whole different story. When they leave, it will be a massive exodus of minutes play. Julia Dorsey, Isabel Cox, Aleigh Gambone, Libby Moore, Tori Hansen, Maycee Bell, Maggie Pierce. I'm fairly certain Josephson red-shirted 2021.

The Tar Heels might not have as many Seniors as a lot of teams out there next year, but it will be a very strong bastion of talent that will be hungry to go out with a bang after the failure of 2021.

 

People, get a grip on yourself. Yes, the bias and narrow mindedness of UNC fans is annoying but UNC is one of the best programs in the country. UNC will have more talent on the roster next year than 99% of the country and will be 1 of the 5 best teams in the country and will compete for a ACC and national titles. They had a "down" year but really how down was it?

 

One of the things it is hard for a lot of fans to get a grip on is that games sometimes do not come out with the team that is better and even a lot better over time, winning. This is simply a matter of statistical reality. It probably is true in any sport, but I suspect it is especially true in soccer. And, from a statistical perspective, upsets of the same team can occur more than once in a season, however rare that may be. And, it does not necessarily mean the team being upset is worse than in prior seasons. It may be that this is just one of those rare occasions. So, from a win-loss-tie record perspective it may be a down year, but in terms of team quality it may not.

I think this particularly can be expected to show up now and then as over time, for even the very best teams, average goal differential in games diminishes, as has been occurring for D1 women’s soccer.

 

What we are looking at here is simply the results of parity advancing over the last 10 years and the nature of soccer as a low scoring game.

UNC under Anson has followed a similar pattern than, shall we say, Knute Rockne, Adolph Rupp, John Wooden, Pat Summitt, and Geno Auriemma. These coaches all had their greatest success through pioneering initial phases of the establishment of their sport before true parity was achieved nation wide. Rockne invented national rectruiting and for ten years had no peers. Rupp took basketball into the college ranks also by recruiting, and then in the 1970s Wooden embraced pushed through the racial strictures of college basketball to dominate for over a decade. With the change in rules in women's college basketball leading to more popularity of the women's game, Louisinia Tech and UCONN stated strong but Summitt recruited her way to dominance for over two decades at Tennessee and was followed by Auriemma at UCONN for another two decades of dominance.

All of these examples have come to an end of dominance. The reason being that the enlargement of the pool of good players has allowed other teams to successfully compete for championships. For women's college soccer (recruiting) parity was reached about ten years ago and has steadily placed more and more teams in a position where they could challenge the top teams.

UNC, Stanford, UCLA, Duke, Penn State, FSU, (and more) teams will remain near the top of college soccer, but the strings of consecutive final four appearances will be for only a few years. More and more new teams will be joining that club, just as it has been for other college sports. Anson has done an astounding job in terms of longevity and as a supporter of the game, but his time is waning.... but not quite done yet!

 

Related to this (though not exactly on point), and for anyone who wants to understand in more academic terms (though not too academic) how this works in the evolution of a sport, I recommend Part III of Stephen Jay Gould, Full House (Three Rivers Press 1996), titled The Model Batter: Extinction of .400 Hitting and the Improvement of Baseball.

 

This is a crucial approach - understanding the psychology of coaching females, how you build a competitive environment without killing off the necessary bond between the teammates. It seems many male coaches do not understand this and push female players like they would men and erode the confidence and destroy team spirit. A strong bond among the players is fundamental to real lasting success on women’s soccer teams

 

One of his innovations is keeping detailed stats on players in practice (part of the competitive cauldron), making the stats available to players, and basing game day decisions on the stats.

 

Read Mia Hamm's description of how Dorrance's system allowed her to be competitive in a way she did not feel was okay before.

The most important "innovation," though, may not have been Dorrance's at all. Doesn't a lot of credit go to UNC for simply being one of the early schools to commit to a varsity women's soccer program?

 

This is probably old news for those who follow recruiting, but not the rest of us:

https://goheels.com/news/2021/12/8/womens-soccer-announces-signing-class.aspx

 

It certainly seems like another excellent recruiting class--but I'm amazed that so many top players choose UNC when there is a strong possibility that they won't play much. A few might get some decent minutes, one or two might play a lot--knocking previous starters out of their spots--until next year when they in turn lose minutes to the latest crop of recruits. I wonder if this lineup churn doesn't work against the team at times--not enough continuity.

 

Especially when you have 40+ players

 

Part of winning is recruiting players that could improve your rivals, even if it means over promising and putting them on your bench

 

Yes. It may not be a legit observation, to be sure, but watching UNC last year--running players in and out and with a dugout so packed that there was barely room for everybody--a few of them starters from the previous two years then relegated to 15-mins a match duty, if that--I thought: it's nice if you are upgrading positions with new incoming talent, but at what cost to chemistry, and it simply can't be easy managing so many good players. But: most of them seem to stay; one doesn't see many UNC players in the portal, even though a bunch of them could probably be playing 70 minutes a game for other, good/solid programs.

 

This fact of few transfers out for UNC has always intrigued me. In the early decades there were very, very few transfers but the rate is inching up such that there have been 9 transfers out in the past 10 years for UNC. (See below for data*) Yup, that’s and average of less than one transfer per year. (And, by the way, the UNC roster has never been in the 40s. The largest rosters in the last 10 years were 37 (2021) and 36 (2013) with two years each at 30, 31, 32, and 33.)

In answering myself about why there are so few transfers given highly competitive players facing Anson’s famous “cauldron”, I have long since concluded that most all of the players do indeed like the culture of the UNC soccer program as promoted by Anson and his staff. To them it feels like a supportive family which understands and encourages their soccer ambitions. By in large they like each other, they like Anson and the staff, and they like the competitive culture. This kind of a “family” works for them. Clearly, based on the data, only a comparative few move on to seek greener pastures.

There is plentiful evidence that such a supportive family atmosphere at UNC works.

First, I would recommend the the 2013 nationally published article by ESPN’s Graham Hayes as he analyses what it might be that produced (to that time) UNC’s incredible success in the college soccer world. While he covers a lot of ground regarding Anson and his staff and some other factors, he also hones in on the supportive family culture for the players. To research his article, Hayes spends a full week of time from dawn to dusk with the team and the staff.

In addition to his intrigue with Anson and his techniques, Hayes’ general theme is how high pressure competition on the practice field coexists with feeling supported and appreciating your teammates and coaching staff. He notices that “Instead of scattering after practice, the players spent time together.” He also documents a player during a practice drill arguing with Anson that his application of one of the rules of the drill was not fair. The implication being that she felt safe and supported enough to publicly challenge the head coach (who later in the month did promote her to a starting position based on the data of her practice performance.) Hayes also notes a conversation with another UNC player who was a national youth team player and a high school All American whose experiences with recruitment personnel at other college programs told her of all of the awful things that she would experience and how miserable she would be if she went to UNC. In her freshman year she went home to New Jersey for Christmas “...and listened to friends who played for other schools gripe about who had it worst with coaches, teammates or some other irritant, she sat in awkward silence. She wasn't a star. She didn't start. She just didn't have any complaints.”

There is more data out there beyond the Graham Hayes story. One source is the many public statements made by a host of well known former UNC players ...like Mia Hamm, Cindy Parlow, Crystal Dunn, or Lucy Bronze. They all have commented on their experience at UNC and while not saying everything was perfect, they all have reminisced about the how they felt they were in the right place and what they experienced helped them grow personally and professionally. (I personally am impressed by how many of these alumnae come back to Chapel Hill for soccer celebrations.) As an example of how players might feel when coming to UNC to play, listen to Jessica McDonald speak of her arrival at UNC and how she was immediately brought into the supportive family. (episode 13 of “Vision of a Champion” Anson Dorrance podcast.. especially after the intermission..she speaks directly to the staff and players welcoming her to UNC ... Or listen to Tobin Heath on episode 12 for a different cut.)

There is also evidence in personal observation. I have hundreds of times watched interactions among the UNC players before, during, and after games. Body language speaks loudly and watching the players congregate and chat, or goof around, or listen intently, there are good vibes everywhere. It seems that for almost everyone there is a lot of interaction with good eye contact as they talk and laugh.

UNC is not alone. I am quite sure that in these times there are many other excellent women's soccer programs at universities and colleges which have developed wonderful cultures in their programs. Some outstanding ones come to mind and each is unique ...Virginia, Stanford, Florida State, and Duke come to mind, but my experience in watching closely is limited and there are surely many more out there that are excelling too in all of the conferences.

Cheers!

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*Looking for transfers out in the past 10 UNC seasons, this year it is Hallie Klanke (who was injured this season), last year (2020) it was Alexis Strickland, and in 2019 it was Izzy Brown (now the top scorer at Minnesota). There were no transfers from the 2018 roster.# From the 2017 roster Alia Hyatt transferred out, and there were no transfers from the 2016 or 2015 rosters. From the 2014 roster Amber Munerlyn and Niki Romero transferred out, from the 2013 roster Danae O'Halloran, Vicky Bruce, and Reilly Parker transferred, and there were no transfers in 2012.

# I believe that we are talking about players receiving support to play soccer transferring to a school where the is a serious chance of getting significant playing time at a good collegiate program. So I am not including for the 2018 season a senior who was a local walk-on (no soccer financial support). Nicole Crutchfield, a competent and nice person who was by all accounts happy at UNC, sat out her sophomore season with an injury, was on the academic honor role and dean's list, and graduated with her class after the usual 4 years. During the summer of 2019 she coached at Anson’s summer camps before going to Liberty University for graduate school and played one season on her remaining eligibility and received her graduate degree in 2020. (She is now married and has returned to work in Chapel Hill.) Is this the kind of "transfer" we are recording as moving to greener pastures to find more playing time and further their soccer careers? I have made the judgment that it is not. (But if it is, then the average for UNC would be a clean 1 transfer per year in the last 10 years.)

 

I think the numbers were artificially inflated b/c of the COVID years and exceptions for eligibility.
If UNC had a culture problem, the transfer history would definitely reveal it.
I just wonder how 14 scholarships can be spread over so many players?
The way Anson chooses to manage his roster is working. With so many players on the roster, discontent would get out. It doesn't!
The only question I have is why more star players have not taken advantage of the COVID exceptions.
Imagine the 20 team with Wubben-Moy and Russo. There may be others. I know that they had professional opportunities, but in a sport that is as poorly compensated and short-lived as soccer, I would think the value of a degree(s) and even an advanced degree would be more valuable than leaving early!