Wow, a couple of ties and Canadians are trash talking. LOL. Canada's next game is at Honduras, right? Remind me of the score last time Canada went there.
The U.S. has gotten draws the last two cycles at Azteca. It's not what it use to be after modifications made to the venue, games being played at night and reduced fans(?) (seemed less then capacity). Playing in the U.S., where a lot of the Canada squad plays (in MLS at least), is about as tame as it gets my dude. It's nothing like central America. You have the full slate of central american games still to go. Have fun with that. Though, fortunately for Canada.. some of the central america sides are essentially out of it. That will likely temper some of your experience. Lucky for you.
Some Elo/Monte Carlo stuff about the next round. Here's what happens to our qualifying results given how we do over the window (without accounting for Elo rating changes). Our current direct qualification % is about 95.3% 9 points (24.5% of sims) - 99.6% Qualification rate 7 points (25.8%) - 98.0% 6 points (30.6%) - 95.5% 5 points (6.2%) - 93.4% 4 points (9.3%) - 86.0% 3 points (2.3%) - 76.5% 2 points (0.8%) - 72.2% 1 point (0.3%) - 54.6% 0 points (0.1%) - 40.0% Get 9 and it's all but done. The extra point in Canada on 7 could prove vital if that's where we get. 6 is the status quo. It's good. 5 is disappointing, but it's probably beat Panama and it's fine. 4 is dicey. And it's not all that rare at almost 10%. Can't have it. 3 or 2, we probably need a road point, maybe a win in Mexico or Costa Rica. 1 is a disaster, probably need 6 at least 0, hey we can still get through, just win the last round baby! This probably signs off the sims for a while. But if anyone wants to see specific scenarios, I'm your humble servant. @ me
So in other words, winning the rest of our home games this cycle should be enough to get us to Qatar. Should. But any points we can grab on the road will help a ton
I mean not that it will be an easy game but US teams have regularly gone into the Azteca and got a point. It’s happened 3 out of the 6 Hexes. And I mean I think Canada is going to do enough on the road to qualify, but it’s going to be a grind and it’s not like they’re going to go down there and just roll through everyone. The games are going to be difficult, but I think they will ultimately find their way.
Pretty sure the toughest away games were at the US and Mexico, both kings of concacaf? Last time we lost 2-1 at Honduras, no Davies, David, Eustaquio, Buchanan. We had "Orlando" Larin back then. "Besiktas" Larin would say... We're looking forward to Central America.
100%, Central America is never easy. We've done very well in the Caribbean and against North American giants - we're eager to see how we'll do in Central America
Sit down, younglings, while I spin the tale of a far-off land, lost in the mists of time, called rec.sport.soccer.
Before this all started the veteran watchers said to aim for an average of 3 at home and 1 away. When we are at or above that average I will feel optimistic. When we are below it I am pessimistic.
If we could just combine Canada's success in the Caribbean with our relative success in Mexico, we'd have quite the road juggernaut. But both of us still struggle in Central America . . .
Brian McBride has stated that the US will no longer host games on temporary grass fields. Artificial surfaces were already out of the question.
Yup. Central America is never easy. The good news is you've put yourself in a position where a couple of stinkers on the road there aren't going to kill you. [See the USMNT's clunker in Panama.] Everybody is going to be taking points off each other in these last 6 games. If Canada comes out of the next window with only 4 points [Let's say a loss at Honduras, draw against the USMNT, and win over El Salvador], you're still fine. 20 points with three games to go? Before the ocho, you'd have taken that in a heartbeat!! All depends how Panama performs in the window, which is their toughest with games at Mexico and Costa Rica. Its much easier to see a rough window for Panama than Canada (or the US) in the next round of games. And if there's a disaster and you only get 3 points next window? You still have three winnable games in the last window, including a "6-pointer" against Panama. I think we all know that if Canada beats Honduras outright, the momentum gain would be enormous. In that scenario you qualify with games to spare. If you lose, you're fine...................but there will be endless "here we go again" naysayers. It will just add that pressure.
Yeah. I corrected it in my post, but you beat me to it. Canada plays all Central American nations on the road in their remaining schedule. All winnable, but all difficult. Not just for the US, but for Mexico too. Mexico didn't win in Panama................
Tend to agree but you are making a huge assumption that I am not sure holds true. That is if the US did this same kind of crap that they would get away with it like the rest. I have seen far too many examples for years that the US are flagged at a different level than the rest of CONCACAF.
Interestingly enough, if things go very poorly for us we may need them. It’s the last match day. BTW, I don’t think things will go very poorly for us, Panama will just have to play incredibly, incredibly well.
Haven’t you said the U.S. isn’t a top two CONCACAF team and mocked the idea of them being “kings” of the region? Can’t have it both ways.
It’s weird that places with moderate temps and so much rainfall play on turf and places that are super hot and arid, like Austin, play a natural grass. I am sure there is some sensible explanation, but I don’t know what it is.
Indeed. As far as I'm concerned the outcome of this Ocho comes down to how Panama plays in this upcoming window. Its a tough three games. I'm fairly confident in the US, Canada, and Mexico picking up points at their usual pace. One can easily envision a scenario after the next window in which a comfortable gap has developed between the three North American sides and 4th place Hell: If Panama loses on the road to Costa Rica next matchday, that 4th/5th place gap is only 2 points. If that happens its not crazy to envision a scenario in which Costa Rica is in 4th place after the next window. That'll mean they also beat Jamaica..................not impossible. I personally think the BigSoccer intelligentsia has buried Costa Rica too quickly.
Like Mexico playing at Azteca wasnt the initial salvo. If anything Canada was just responding to decades of that BS.
I’m not talking about any rivalry. I’m saying it’s hilarious for Mexico fans to be offended by another CONCACAF team strategically picking a venue to give themselves an advantage.
To reiterate again. Pan gets 4 next cycle and if we get 6 it’s all in our hands. 3 pt spread w a huge goal differential. Just beat them, and w a huge goal diff we still get in. Of course it all falls down if we can’t beat them, but this isn’t 2017.