The Ocho

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by Patrick167, Jul 27, 2020.

  1. Marius Tresor

    Marius Tresor Member+

    Aug 1, 2014
    Wow, a couple of ties and Canadians are trash talking. LOL. Canada's next game is at Honduras, right? Remind me of the score last time Canada went there.
     
  2. kruck

    kruck Member+

    Jan 12, 2008
    Houston, TX
    Club:
    SV Werder Bremen
    The U.S. has gotten draws the last two cycles at Azteca. It's not what it use to be after modifications made to the venue, games being played at night and reduced fans(?) (seemed less then capacity).

    Playing in the U.S., where a lot of the Canada squad plays (in MLS at least), is about as tame as it gets my dude. It's nothing like central America.

    You have the full slate of central american games still to go. Have fun with that.

    Though, fortunately for Canada.. some of the central america sides are essentially out of it. That will likely temper some of your experience. Lucky for you.
     
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  3. dlokteff

    dlokteff Member+

    Jan 22, 2002
    San Francisco, CA
    Some Elo/Monte Carlo stuff about the next round. Here's what happens to our qualifying results given how we do over the window (without accounting for Elo rating changes). Our current direct qualification % is about 95.3%

    9 points (24.5% of sims) - 99.6% Qualification rate
    7 points (25.8%) - 98.0%
    6 points (30.6%) - 95.5%
    5 points (6.2%) - 93.4%
    4 points (9.3%) - 86.0%
    3 points (2.3%) - 76.5%
    2 points (0.8%) - 72.2%
    1 point (0.3%) - 54.6%
    0 points (0.1%) - 40.0%

    Get 9 and it's all but done.
    The extra point in Canada on 7 could prove vital if that's where we get.
    6 is the status quo. It's good.
    5 is disappointing, but it's probably beat Panama and it's fine.
    4 is dicey. And it's not all that rare at almost 10%. Can't have it.
    3 or 2, we probably need a road point, maybe a win in Mexico or Costa Rica.
    1 is a disaster, probably need 6 at least
    0, hey we can still get through, just win the last round baby!

    This probably signs off the sims for a while.
    But if anyone wants to see specific scenarios, I'm your humble servant. @ me
     
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  4. papermache16

    papermache16 Member+

    Jan 30, 2009
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    2-1 to Honduras in 2016.
     
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  5. USOutlaw16

    USOutlaw16 Member+

    Green Bay Voyageurs
    United States
    Jan 22, 2011
    On the Gringo Wall of Shame
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    So in other words, winning the rest of our home games this cycle should be enough to get us to Qatar.

    Should.

    But any points we can grab on the road will help a ton
     
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  6. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I mean not that it will be an easy game but US teams have regularly gone into the Azteca and got a point. It’s happened 3 out of the 6 Hexes.

    And I mean I think Canada is going to do enough on the road to qualify, but it’s going to be a grind and it’s not like they’re going to go down there and just roll through everyone. The games are going to be difficult, but I think they will ultimately find their way.
     
  7. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    #2457 Robert Borden, Nov 19, 2021
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2021
    Pretty sure the toughest away games were at the US and Mexico, both kings of concacaf?

    Last time we lost 2-1 at Honduras, no Davies, David, Eustaquio, Buchanan.

    We had "Orlando" Larin back then. "Besiktas" Larin would say...[​IMG]

    We're looking forward to Central America.
     
  8. Robert Borden

    Robert Borden Member+

    Chelsea
    Canada
    Apr 19, 2017
    Toronto, Ontario
    Nat'l Team:
    Canada
    100%, Central America is never easy. We've done very well in the Caribbean and against North American giants - we're eager to see how we'll do in Central America
     
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  9. Dr. Gamera

    Dr. Gamera Member+

    Oct 13, 2005
    Wheaton, Maryland
    Sit down, younglings, while I spin the tale of a far-off land, lost in the mists of time, called rec.sport.soccer.
     
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  10. dspence2311

    dspence2311 Member+

    Oct 14, 2007
    Before this all started the veteran watchers said to aim for an average of 3 at home and 1 away. When we are at or above that average I will feel optimistic. When we are below it I am pessimistic.
     
  11. RefIADad

    RefIADad Member+

    United States
    Aug 18, 2017
    Des Moines, IA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If we could just combine Canada's success in the Caribbean with our relative success in Mexico, we'd have quite the road juggernaut.

    But both of us still struggle in Central America . . .
     
  12. Three and Three

    Three and Three Member+

    Sep 13, 2015
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Brian McBride has stated that the US will no longer host games on temporary grass fields. Artificial surfaces were already out of the question.
     
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  13. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Yup. Central America is never easy.

    The good news is you've put yourself in a position where a couple of stinkers on the road there aren't going to kill you. [See the USMNT's clunker in Panama.] Everybody is going to be taking points off each other in these last 6 games.

    If Canada comes out of the next window with only 4 points [Let's say a loss at Honduras, draw against the USMNT, and win over El Salvador], you're still fine. 20 points with three games to go? Before the ocho, you'd have taken that in a heartbeat!! All depends how Panama performs in the window, which is their toughest with games at Mexico and Costa Rica. Its much easier to see a rough window for Panama than Canada (or the US) in the next round of games.

    And if there's a disaster and you only get 3 points next window? You still have three winnable games in the last window, including a "6-pointer" against Panama.

    I think we all know that if Canada beats Honduras outright, the momentum gain would be enormous. In that scenario you qualify with games to spare.

    If you lose, you're fine...................but there will be endless "here we go again" naysayers. It will just add that pressure.
     
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  14. Ray Shoesmith

    Ray Shoesmith Member+

    Valencia
    United States
    Nov 14, 2021
    Canada plays in Panama I believe.
     
  15. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Yeah. I corrected it in my post, but you beat me to it. :)

    Canada plays all Central American nations on the road in their remaining schedule.

    All winnable, but all difficult.

    Not just for the US, but for Mexico too. Mexico didn't win in Panama................
     
  16. ifsteve

    ifsteve Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Jul 7, 2013
    MS and ID
    Club:
    Real Salt Lake
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Tend to agree but you are making a huge assumption that I am not sure holds true. That is if the US did this same kind of crap that they would get away with it like the rest.

    I have seen far too many examples for years that the US are flagged at a different level than the rest of CONCACAF.
     
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  17. Ray Shoesmith

    Ray Shoesmith Member+

    Valencia
    United States
    Nov 14, 2021
    Interestingly enough, if things go very poorly for us we may need them. It’s the last match day.

    BTW, I don’t think things will go very poorly for us, Panama will just have to play incredibly, incredibly well.
     
  18. An Unpaved Road

    An Unpaved Road Member+

    Mar 22, 2006
    Club:
    --other--
    Haven’t you said the U.S. isn’t a top two CONCACAF team and mocked the idea of them being “kings” of the region? Can’t have it both ways.
     
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  19. dspence2311

    dspence2311 Member+

    Oct 14, 2007
    It’s weird that places with moderate temps and so much rainfall play on turf and places that are super hot and arid, like Austin, play a natural grass. I am sure there is some sensible explanation, but I don’t know what it is.
     
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  20. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Indeed. As far as I'm concerned the outcome of this Ocho comes down to how Panama plays in this upcoming window. Its a tough three games. I'm fairly confident in the US, Canada, and Mexico picking up points at their usual pace. One can easily envision a scenario after the next window in which a comfortable gap has developed between the three North American sides and 4th place

    Hell: If Panama loses on the road to Costa Rica next matchday, that 4th/5th place gap is only 2 points. If that happens its not crazy to envision a scenario in which Costa Rica is in 4th place after the next window. That'll mean they also beat Jamaica..................not impossible.

    I personally think the BigSoccer intelligentsia has buried Costa Rica too quickly.
     
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  21. gtrower

    gtrower Member

    Jul 14, 2014
    Club:
    DC United
    Like Mexico playing at Azteca wasnt the initial salvo. If anything Canada was just responding to decades of that BS.
     
  22. dspence2311

    dspence2311 Member+

    Oct 14, 2007
    Mexican fans still claim that Landon Donovan started the nastiness in that rivalry.
     
  23. gtrower

    gtrower Member

    Jul 14, 2014
    Club:
    DC United
    I’m not talking about any rivalry. I’m saying it’s hilarious for Mexico fans to be offended by another CONCACAF team strategically picking a venue to give themselves an advantage.
     
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  24. Ray Shoesmith

    Ray Shoesmith Member+

    Valencia
    United States
    Nov 14, 2021
    To reiterate again. Pan gets 4 next cycle and if we get 6 it’s all in our hands.
    3 pt spread w a huge goal differential. Just beat them, and w a huge goal diff we still get in. Of course it all falls down if we can’t beat them, but this isn’t 2017.
     
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  25. Ironbound

    Ironbound Member+

    Jul 1, 2009
    I was on the fence whether Mexico should fire Tata, but now that Bob Bradley is available…
     
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