Brazil and Argentina actually dominating CONCACAF would be fun, winning games 10-0 like England vs San Marino
I don't think there are any favorites right now. All the major powers are going through various levels of transition, and between the randomness of the draw and knockout stage matches being decided by PK's, anything can happen. There's really been only one World Cup in the 32-team era where everything went largely according to form (the only "upsets" were France drawing with both Switzerland & South Korea in the group stage and finishing 2nd in their group). Likewise, only one team has been dominant enough to win seven consecutive matches in regulation time (Brazil in 2002). World Cup 1998 saw England lose to Romania in the group stage, thus giving them an R16 matchup with Argentina, while opening up a path to the quarter for Croatia, who then knocked of Germany thanks to a questionable red card. World Cup 2002 saw France lose to Senegal in the opening match and crash out without scoring a goal thanks to an injury to Zinedine Zidane two weeks before the tournament, as well as the US and Korea both beating Portugal in the group stage, Sweden finishing ahead off both England and Argentina in the group of death, and Mexico finishing ahead of Italy in Group G, after which Italy was knocked out in the R16 by hosts South Korea when Totti was sent off in extra time for a second yellow for diving. World Cup 2010 saw France self-destruct, the USA win group C over England thanks to Landon Donovan's stoppage time goal against Algeria which condemned England to an R16 matchup with Germany and opened up a side of the bracket for one of US/Ghana/Uruguay/S.Korea to make the semis. Additionally, Italy went winless and was eliminated by Slovakia in the last group stage game. World Cup 2014 saw defending champions Spain draw into a group of death and fail to make it out of the group stage, along with Costa Rica and Uruguay advancing out of Group D at the expense of England and Italy. And then World Cup 2018 saw Argentina draw with Iceland and get destroyed by Croatia, forcing them into a R16 death match with France, while Croatia ended up in a comparatively easy quarter of the knockout rounds alongside Denmark, Spain, and Russia. Likewise, Germany's shocking losses in the group stage to both Mexico and South Korea saw them finish last in their group, and opened up a quarter of the draw for England to make a run to the semis. Anyway....you get the idea.....all it takes is one or two favorites to slip up a tiny bit in the group stages, and somebody gets a much easier path to the semis.
Spain won both games with a 1-0 scoreline. Yet I'm not sold on their capacity to break down teams that sit deep and defend in numbers. You could argue that they had also some luck on their side especially against Sweden. For me in order to be among the top favourites you need to be a team that can adapt to all type of oppositions. It's that what is the World Cup about. You are likely to face teams from almost all confederations along your way to glory. I'm starting to lean towards Brazil, England and Argentina being the favourites. France is a wild card. We all know how reigning champions struggle mostly. So I'd put them on standby or in a separate category on their own. I put Spain and Germany as contenders. As someone who believes in patterns and trajectory I don't think Italy and Portugal can win the World Cup anymore. We've never had a team winning it that had to go through the playoffs. Belgium are washed up. I wouldn't consider them even for a deep run. I feel they are in for something like a Round of 16 exit. This generation peaked in 2018. The Netherlands gave away a 2-0 lead in Podgorica against Montenegro in a span of just a few minutes. They don't look World Cup winning material at all. The Dutch have still a long way to go to get back among the very best in the world.
...but almost with Croatia in 2018. Despite they are now missing a lot of star players who retired like Rakitic and Mandzukic, they still have Modric, Perisic and Brozovic with new talents on the rise especially in defence and it was their defence, that costed them the trophy in 2018. and then there is Serbia. A team where Mitrovic, Tadic, Kostic are playing since 6 years, with some of the U20 WC winners from 2015 (Milinkovic-Savic, Zivkovic, Veljkovic, Raijkovic) now being standard call-ups and then they have stars-to-be (Vlahovic, Milenkovic) and stars-to-be-in-sleep-mode (Jovic). However, both teams a lacking a real depth in their 23 man squad, too much for a world cup with 7 matches, both are dependent on 1 creative player (Modric and Tadic) and with have a keeper discussion to solve.
Whenever you have a situation when there aren't any real dominating teams, but instead a group that look stronger than some others, luck of the draw, bounce of the ball, teams peaking or showing declining form, each can certainly affect how teams end up finishing in a tournament. The best team in the world is right now France, but we saw even France squander a 2 goal lead and find itself exiting the Euro on penalties against Switzerland. And the same thing almost happened to Spain when Spain faced Switzerland, except the Spaniards won that penalty lottery while losing the next one to Italy. Which brings me to Switzerland, a side that has by now proven itself capable of overtaking the very best sides in Europe, most recently last night topping a group which relegated Euro champs, Italy, to the playoffs. What the Swiss have accomplished the past few months, under often improbable conditions, deserves a lot more attention and praise than it is getting. For instance, how probable is France squandering a 2 goal lead with only 10 minutes left in a game? How many teams are able to come back from behind to draw the masters of tikki taka and then hold on against Spain for 20 minutes of regulation and 30 minutes extra time with a man down? Switzerland, unlike Belgium for instance, has shown itself capable of not just beating sides it should beat but also those it wouldn't be expected to, I wouldn't overlook this Swiss team and those who have are likely to regret doing so.
My grandmother (God rest her soul) got the 1998, 2002 and 2010 semi-finals and final correct but the Finals result wrong. So in her honor for 2022, Semi-final: 1) Brazil v France 2) Germany v Italy.
I sound like a broken record cause I say this constantly but a lot can happen between now and November 2022. Injuries/suspensions, teams best players getting one year older and one year more of wear & tear. Teams having younger players improve in twelve months who can step up, etc. etc. We probably won't truly know the favorites until we watch the Group stage and how teams adapt to the totally new environment and winter schedule. It is going to be crazy.
Even the WC group stage can be a bad predictor for the knockout stages that immediately follow it. I recall in 2014, the Netherlands went from being the most exciting team to watch in the world to one of the most boring. That said, nothing wrong with predicting and listing favorites a year in advance or more. The list of favorites will always be a fluid thing, so if we are waiting for a time when all the variables are known so that we can list our favorites, we will be waiting until halftime of the WC final (at least).
With players playing for their club up until the Sunday before the opening match of the World Cup, injuries are going to be a HUGE factor...
All three of those countries are really hard to judge right now. Brazil and Argentina have been dominating CONMEBOL qualifying, but I'm not sure that that's because they're better, or everyone else has gotten worse. It's notable the Brazil and Argentina met in the Final of the Copa America for the first time since 2007, which may also indicate the comparative weakness of the rest of the South American countries right now. England's achievements at both WC18 and Euro21 are to some extent a function of luck. They got lucky with the group stage draw, with their R16 opponent guaranteed to be from Group H, the weakest group, only won their R16 match on PK's, and then got an comparatively easy QF thanks to Germany falling flat on their face in Group F. At Euro21, England benefitted from playing six out of their seven matches at Wembley, with only their QF against Ukraine being played outside of London.
Indeed. Belgium, for instance, were probably better than England (or at least as good) in both of those tournaments yet encountered much tougher draws and thus nobody are talking about them now. But WC 2022 brings us a new draw, and with it luck might reverse itself. That said, England got far in the Euros even with some of their top players out-of-form or injured so they can potentially get better. In general, I feel the UEFA sides have more 'up-side' from what we have seen in recent major tournaments (Germany & Holland have a better manager, France have Benzema again, Portugal & Spain are maturing, etc.). Whereas Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil basically gave it their best in the last WC (and since then) and still haven't looked that great.
England will have to get better in order to win the world cup, as I doubt they will have as favourable conditions as they had at the euro. Yet that may very well be the case, as there's a real potential among their young players. From what I've seen at the euro, I would say England has a very good defence, maybe even the best defence of the competition, but they are still technically poor in their passing game, and I believe their forwards can be neutralized by a well-organized team, Kane included. Sterling and Saka are promising but they need to improve their finishing in front of the net. Brazil and Argentina are big question marks I agree because the Copa America was so weird that we can't really know what to think about it. Brazil wasn't so impressive by judging on what I could watch of it, but then they destroyed all their opponents at the world cup qualifiers (which I haven't seen), and that in itself is already impressive. As for France, its defence was dreadful at the euro, not only against Switzerland but also against Portugal and even Hungary. They certainly can't win anything playing this way. But then, they were better organized during the Nations League. I believe the weaker links are Pavard and Varane, which scared me a lot since the euro. But then, if Deschamps will find better options, he won't hesitate to put them on the bench. We don't talk so much about Spain, but they still outplay anyone in possession. I agree that is boring to watch as they don't take enough their chances, but if they succeed to improve in this regard with a convincing striker, that may become a very tough team to beat.
Belgium's stock went down in the last Euro and basically crashed in the Nations League, when they were obviously outplayed by France and Italy. I agree.
One interesting tidbit...out of the past five World Cup winners, only one made it out of the group stage at the next tournament (Brazil won in 2002 and made the QF in 2006). France (1998), Italy (2006), Spain (2010), and Germany (2014) all failed to make it out of the group stage at the next World Cup.
This used to be an interesting "tid-bit" until it also happened to Germany in WC18! Since then it has been elevated to the Curse of European World Cup Winners
We're one year away but I believe France will not suffer a shock group stage exit. There are a few points indicating that their case is a bit different. But then again you never know.
Since France is actually the side that started the curse in WC02, its up to them to end it too. So, yes, I am pretty confident France will not finish at the group stage in Qatar.
Here is why I believe France will not suffer the fate of France 02, Italy 10, Spain 14 and Germany 18. — Other than those four France are coming of the back of a very dissappointing EURO in which they exited in the Round of 16 to Switzerland. Compare that to France that won the EUROs in 2000, Italy exited in the quarterfinals against eventual winners Spain in 2008, Spain won EURO 2012 and Germany got knocked out in the semi-finals 2016 against hosts France. — France have changed a lot of their personnel and introduced with the 3-5-2 a new system. In the 23-man squad of this month only 7 were part of the squad that won in Russia. Hence more than two thirds of the squad has changed. Without looking up the squads of the cursed winners I highly doubt they had so many changes in personnel. The implementation of a new system is also something to raise awareness and prevents to get into a rut. — France are everything but an old team. Current average age is 26.65. Compare this to the cursed teams: France 2002 => 28.26 Italy 2010 => 28.22 Spain 2014 => 27.78 Germany 2018 => 26.70 — The fact that the fate of previous four European World Cup Champions is widely known you'd think would help to create some awareness among the players when they enter the tournament. These are all points I can think of right now.
In case of France 2002, Italy 2010 and Spain 2014 the main reason for the failure was the lack of change in personnel. They entered the World Cup with pretty old squads. Now the case of Germany 2018 was different. Germany was in Russia still a young team. After the disaster happened there were many reports here in Germany that there was unrest in the squad and the squad was basically divided into two camps. The camp of the vetetans and World Cup winners such as Neuer, Hummels, Kroos, Khedira and Müller and the camp of the younger inexperienced players such as Werner, Kimmich, Brandt, Süle and Ginter. According to some reports there was also friction between "German" players and players with other background such as Özil, Gündogan, Boateng, Khedira and Rüdiger. The fact that Özil and Gündogan met with the Turkish president just three weeks before the World Cup was a big story in Germany and very harshly criticized. It set the tone for a campaign where they never were able to concentrate on the job on the pitch but were very much busy with annoying side issues. Another reason for the failure was complacency. Germany had won the Confederations Cup one year earlier with a B/C squad. That lead to a thinking where they thought they would be untouchable with their best squad.
I've analysed and broken down everything.There are only two teams that have a shot at winning it all as far as I'm concerned. Brazil and England. I named also Argentina as favourites the other day but I crossed them off now. We are in for a two horse race in Qatar if nothing changes drastically.
Why only Brazil or England? Even just among previous winners, IMO Germany, France, Italy (if they qualify) and, to a lesser extent, Argentina or Spain, could win the tournament as well. But I have a feeling the winner may even emerge from sides which have never won before. I am not going to pick any one in particular, as none of them individually will even be assured of getting out of their group, but among them, you could find one that goes all the way.
Brazil and England happen to be as of now the youngest squads among the powerhouses. Football evolved to a very fast paced game especially in the last decade or so and I see in general a trend where younger teams are better poised for success. My stats back up this theory. Since the 2010 World Cup 9 out of 12 semi-finalists belonged to the younger half of the 32 teams field in terms of average age. Brazil and England haven't won a World Cup for 20 or 56 years respectively. Hence they have more incentive to win it. Italy, Spain, Germany and France all of them had their moment in this century. Brazil and England have both World Cup experienced manager. This was also the reason why I had to cross off Argentina. The Argentina NT is literally the first job as a headcoach for Lionel Scaloni. Never ever in World Cup history a manager with so little coaching experience won the World Cup. Brazil and England look just very good to me. They have both a system in place, are capable sides defensively as well as going forward. Brazil are on a mission. 20 years without a World Cup is a long time for them. Brazil is kicking ass in CONMEBOL World Cup qualfying. Brazilian clubs dominate CONMEBOL club competitions to a degree we never witnessed. This year all four finalists from Copa Libertadores and Copa Sudamericana are from Brazil. Historically we can compare the current period with 54-62. In 1954 the Maracanazo happened when Brazil lost the World Cup to Uruguay as overly overwhelming favourites. I compare that to the Mineirazo in 2014 when Brazil lost 7-1 to Germany. Both these were events that left their mark on the nation. In case of the Maracanazo it took Brazil eight years to respond to that by winning their next World Cup in 1962. Hence It would be quite fitting if they do it again in 2022. As for England they have plenty of youth and their players have the opportnity to play in the best league in the world week in and week out. What might work in favour of England this time is the fact that the World Cup will be played in mid-season. Players will arrive in relatively fresh condition to the World Cup or to say the least will be much less fatugued than they usually are after a very demanding and physically draining Premier League season. The loss at the EURO 2020 final might serve England as valuable experience, as a stepping stone to something even greater to come. England are following the same exact path as France 2016-2018. France took the final loss to Portugal as a lesson and learned from it and went on to lift the World Cup. I could see the same happening with England. Then there's also the Guardiola effect. Spain and Germany won World Cups in the time when Guardiola was coaching Barcelona and Bayern having the core of national team players under his tutelage. Granted there are only five English NT players at City with Stones, Walker, Phoden, Grealish and Sterling it's still another interesting circomstance. The other teams simply have too many flaws or as I said have less incentive to go there and win it. I won't spend time discussing their chances extensively as I believe that there's no team out there other than Brazil or England who can win it this time. Barring some drastic changes in the next twelve months that is.