After the Jamaica match, my minimum expected points goes to 24 (assuming we lose our last three away matches and win our last three home matches). While we technically have our toughest away matches, we also have our easiest home matches. If we screw one of those games up we will have to make it up on the road. On the other hand, if we can get a point or two along the way away from home, that gives us some wiggle room. (I predict 26 points for the US: sweep home matches, and draw two of three away matches while losing the other.)
The 1-1 draw drops our qualification odds by about 3/4 of a percent. It will be a bit worse once I exchange the Elo pts. Other results of course will impact as well.
Earlier in Edmonton. Miren el campo en Canadá ☃️ ❄️🇨🇦 🆚 🇲🇽 🔜...📸: @CanadaSoccerEN #CWCQ pic.twitter.com/qJPeAadL0H— Aurelio Martínez (@AurelioMartine) November 16, 2021
Costa Rica and El Salvador leading early. Those two winning would make the fight for fourth very interesting all of a sudden.
Panama is absolutely cursed not to score in this half. Their xG must be 5 at this point and they are still down 0-1.
Truly remarkable they haven't scored. I expect them to in the second half. Would be big for us if they didn't though. Also would be nice if Honduras could hold Costa Rica to a draw (they leveled the game, it's now at the half), though after blowing a 2-0 lead last game I'm not expecting much from them either.