Why this year over any other? Maybe you just notice it because against your wildest dreams you are on the outside looking in for once. If UNC do not make it, get a NCAA seed and win the tournament, will the rest have been a positive? Watching the ACC this year has yielded some very exciting games, but is that because everyone is excellent or the level at the traditional elites is a little lower than usual? I believe its the latter.
Just another example of the consequences of a bloated conference constructed solely for football TV rights with no geographic or other logic. It shows up in unbalanced schedules in all the sports, with one school or another always getting the worst of it, some schools playing each other only once in a blue moon. Wake and UNC are playing in football this year only because they scheduled it as a non-conference game. But . . . that’s the way of the world in college athletics these days.
Yep: It's called U.S.-style GREED--period. TV rights money for football and basketball. That's solely what all this nonsense conference expansion, followed by more expansion, leading to these super-conferences with 14-16 teams, is all about--money. It's gotten absurd--and it's the further corruption of college athletics, basically. But one could argue that it's nice for the non-revenue sports--once the pandemic is fully behind us--as big schools in big conferences are in a much better position to support--nicely support--women's soccer, volleyball and other sports.
Well the unbalanced schedules rotate, so everyone gets a break from the top teams at some point (assuming the top teams stay the same). Clemson and Wake Forest have essentially the same conference schedule this year. I think the argument against the way the current schedules are set is valid. But I’m not sure the current scenario is the best argument against it. As you point out, Wake Forest has beaten two teams UNC didn’t. If they had the same record against common opponents and UNC was still left out then that would be a stronger argument. Also, you mention Virginia Tech and NC State as examples of teams getting shafted by the scheduling by having to play all the top teams. But those are two teams that have results against those top teams that are going to get them into the NCAA tournament (unquestionably more important). So it does swing both ways to an extent.
ah, you are correct. I think I was conflating the WFU ND scenario with Clemson's when I posted that. So the scenarios, along with the obvious "win at Miami", are: BC win or draw over Clemson, WF win over Notre Dame. I think UNC is going to be seeded anyway if they fail to make the ACC Tournament, and will likely host at least 1 NCAA Tournament Game. Most importantly, I hope Maycee Bell is not hurt too badly. I'm not a good enough expert an analyzing injuries to know if this is a really bad stinger that she might be able to come back from quickly, or if it's something far worse. 1452392886188847109 is not a valid tweet id
On the positive side, Abby Allen was a force against Notre Dame. Maybe she figured she needed to step it up when Bell went down. Looked like Patterson initially moved to center but then Allen ended up there.
The thing I find most astonishing is that UNC is likely to be worse than 6th in the ACC in a year when they have actually have a perfectly decent season and still are solid College Cup contenders. It’s not like they’ve had a bad year at all. I believe they have a considerably better record at this point of the year than they did the last time the won the NCAA. Right now , they are #4 nationally in the RPI and yet 7th place in the ACC. Agree with above that the bell injury is far , far more important than any ACC tourney considerations.
Congrats, you guys just landed a top 5-star recruit. https://www.instagram.com/p/CVgqyN1p-x9/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
Carolina is going to miss the ACC tournament. Which will then allow them 2 weeks off and the ability to rest and recover. This will propel them to win the Natty this year. The 2 weeks off will be the rejuvenation that gives them the advantage over some of these other elite teams down the stretch.
I wonder if Anson is still doing the recruiting. He has to be handing things off, right? I'd feel weird as a student-athlete if Anson sells his coaching career to me and then retires midway or even before I start there. UNC had the #2 and #4 recruits of the class this year in Sentnor and Colton.
Not sure what ranking system you may be looking at, but for what they are worth, at this time Top Drawer Soccer has only 2 players listed as 5- star for 2023. (one each for Stanford and UNC) TDS lists 145 4-star players of which 54 are shown as committed with Melina included in that group. https://www.topdrawersoccer.com/sea...layer&sortColumns=0&sortDirections=1&search=1 But I always take TDS ratings with a large grain of salt. 5 stars are usually very good players, but occaisionally flame out in college. On the other hand, I believe that we all have seen unranked players rise to starting positions on top college teams. (I can name a bunch at UNC.) Cheers!
Oh how I hope you are right… I certainly think losing in the first round of ACC in 2012 was a key ingredient to their NCAA run
From a purely statistical perspective based on teams’ current RPI ratings, it will come down to what happens between Clemson and Boston College, which could be a closer game than many of you think. Based on their ratings as adjusted for home field advantage, Clemson has a win likelihood of 46.2%, a tie likelihood of 15.8%, and a loss likelihood of 38.0%. In other words, Clemson is slightly more likely to tie or lose than it is to win. With a Clemson loss or tie and a UNC win against Miami, UNC is in the tournament.
From what i saw with Boston college against Pitt. . .BC is just ready for their season to be over. Clemson has something to play for. Clemson will win that game in my opinion
I would never actually root for UNC to lose, so I am hoping for a convincing win against Miami. But, I think I actually AM rooting for them to miss the ACC tournament. Two weeks to heal and practice? yes , please. So, I am rooting for Clemson to win , but I am less clear about the Wake Forest- Notre Dame game. I am assuming UNC would win a tiebreaker with notre dame at 18 pts since they beat them, so do I root for Notre Dame to win and get 21 , with Wake tied with UNC at 18? Would wake win the tiebreaker over UNC?
I can't find any 2021 tie breakers and I'm relying on last years. This would mean no, UNC would not hold the tie breaker against Wake Forest. When no head to head is available, it's based on the number of wins against common opponents. When is the last time someone has failed to make their respective conference tournament and gone on to win the championship? Excluding conferences that don't have tournaments, of course.
Sorry, was not going off TDS. She's a very good player. She'll a star for UNC; was hoping PSU could land her.
I’d be shocked if it has ever happened… in any Div 1 college sport. Sure would be interesting if it had. I think it has been a more recent , with the advent of such large conferences, that “making the conference tournament” was even a thing. All teams made most conference tournaments in the past. Crossing sports, consider 1983 NC State men’s basketball , a team that may not have made the NCAA tournament without winning the conference tournament, yet went on to win the NCAA tournament. But, not making the conference tournament and winning NCAA, seems very unlikely to have happened before and almost certainly not in women’s college soccer where there really haven’t been any Cinderella story NCAA champs. A few were surprising , but I don’t think any were highly unexpected from a team who would have been at any risk for not making their conference tournament.
It would surely be a major exception if a team did, mostly because I'm not sure a bye fortnight would really help. Sports is a cyclical endeavor and both players and coaches alike are creatures of habit. The routine is very important and being off for a couple of weeks could cause more harm than not. The NFL has had bye weeks for some 20 years now, and teams coming off a bye -- with all the attendant bonuses of getting healthy and rested -- win at about a 52% clip. It doesn't seem like that big of an advantage. Now sure, some coaches have figured out how to incorporate the bye into their routines -- Bill Belichek is very good and Andy Reid at one point was something 15 - 1 coming out of a bye -- but this would be new ground for Dorrance and the Tar Heels.
No, it would mostly be a major exception because the teams in question would be weaker teams on average. Your example is not that relevant since there is no selection for weaker teams in the NFL bye week. As for whether it will help UNC to have time off, it’s hard to apply any data to a team and coach that has won 22 NCAA titles. I think it’s fair to say they are an outlier. It seemed to help them in 2012 to not play the second weekend of the ACC tourney. UNC is generally an overachieving team that outperforms both their recruiting and , as in 2012, their regular season in the NCAA tournament. By contrast, a team like UVA, for example, is generally one that underperforms both its recruiting and regular seasons.
they didnt miss the tournament but would of if it was this years format. the year Florida state won the national championship they finished 7th in the ACC that year.
if UNC had players that were actually injured and needed the time off to get healthy and fit ... maybe ... but they don't. Who is going to get healthy and fitter than they already are in the next two weeks? Only two players that I can think of are Hansen and Dellaperuta, and even then I don't think they need more than another week. They both looked good tonight. Bell isn't coming back this season, me thinks. and they got a huge boost with winning the ACC tournament in seeding ... if they have the season they had and failed to make the tournament they're probably a 4 seed like UNC will be this year. Their path to a Championship gets *way* harder. Not making the tournament and staying active in play hurts UNC more than helps, in my opinion.