Kinda crazy: this is how the Wednesday matches played out in the East among teams who have clinched or are still alive. A win for the top and bottom, and a middle pack filled with L’s and T’s.
Given the amount of head to head games between the teams behind them I'm 90% sure the Rapids also clinch with a draw, but I haven't run every possible combination.
SCS has found at least one 0-1-3 scenario each where both KC and Colorado miss the playoffs. I am guessing a draw vs Portland for CO and vs Seattle for KC (both this weekend) wouldn't change the calculus, since it is Vancouver and LAFC that can still catch them.
Midweek Update WEDNESDAY TOR 0 @ MIA 3 MTL 1 @ ORL 1 CHI 4 @ CIN 3 NYC 1 @ ATL 1 NER 3 @ DCU 2 LAF 3 @ DAL 2 PHI 2 @ MIN 3 CLB 1@ NSH 1 LAG 3 @ HOU 0 SEA 1@ COL 1 VAN 3 @ POR 2 AUS 0 @ SJE 4 In the east, not much change. In the west, DAL and HOU are officially eliminated. In the overall, it would take something really drastic to happen for CIN to avoid a Hat Spoon. Very good possibility of seeing NER clinch the Shield as well. Not much chance of any other eliminations, but SJE could make things very interesting in the west if they win their match versus VAN, and RSL and LAF stumble. Prost!
Also barring a complete meltdown by SKC and Colorado + run by Nashville it looks like 2nd in the West will be the final CCL qualifier, replacing the USOC qualifier.
I think Nashville still has the easiest remaining schedule, so while it's likely, I don't think it would require a complete meltdown. Just a stumble against, oh, I don't know, New England maybe? Then again Nashville has a choice -- getting into the CCL or setting a record for ties.
But they have to pass Colorado and SKC, and SKC has a game in hand. I wouldn't be shocked to see Colorado stumble, but both of them seems unlikely.
Finer tuned for this Weekend for Colorado -- Colorado is eliminated with the following scenario that includes a Draw with Portland: Galaxy goes 3-0-1, losing to Minnestoa Minnestoa goes 3-0-1, losing to Vancouver Vancouver goes 4-0-0 RSL goes 4-0-1, losing to Portland Portland goes 3-1-0, (Colorado draw this weekend) Colorado goes 0-1-3, (Portland Draw this weekend) If 1 of Galaxy, Minnesota, or Vancouver lose this weekend, then Colorado and KC clinch with draws (I Think) If 2 of Galaxy, Minnesota, or Vancouver lose this weekend, then I think both KC and Colorado clinch even with losses (I think).
The Rapids have been able to clinch for the last two games with a Minn loss and a Van loss/draw, so that part at least seems accurate.
Texan teams Houston Austin Dallas a great season. (e-) The bottom three.Sorry but it is crazy that they are all at the bottom. No offense intended.
If your team is already eliminated, MLS is now reviewing them on the league website. https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/topics/season-review/
SKC and Colorado clinch playoff spots tonight. They all but clinch home playoff matches as well but there's still a route where they don't host. Portland and the Galaxy would have to win out while Colorado or SKC lose out, and in SKC's case the Galaxy would have to make up a goal differential of 22 to pass them and knock them into 5th.
Top of the week ladies and germs, and all the ships at sea... Weekend results: SATURDAY SKC 2 @ SEA 1 NYR 2 @ CLB 1 NSH 0 @ PHI 1 MTL 1 @ TOR 1 DCU 0 @ NYC 6 LAF 1 @ MIN 1 CIN 1 @ MIA 5 RSL 0 @ CHI 1 POR 0 @ COL 2 VAN 1 @ SJE 1 DAL 2 @ LAG 2 SUNDAY HOU 1 @ AUS 2 NER 2 @ ORL 2 Results of this weekend's matches have SKC and COL punching their tickets to the post-season, DCU crossing the Tropic of Toast, and NER officially locking up the Shield. The Wooden Spoon is still in contention, but it is absolutely Cincy's to win, should they decide to do so. To the tables! Yep, NER is officially the Shield winner, and therefore MLS Cup '21 has its best chance of being played in a cold, empty, ginormous hand-egg stadium. DCU chose a very bad time to go 0-2 with a -5 GD, and as a result they went from 5th place to 10th place in the east, and got toasted as a bonus. Solid week for the Eagles there. Similar kind of thing happened in the west to RSL - one loss and you're below the Red Line - good news for RSL though is that they have a game-in-hand relative to the rest of the lower pack in the west and that keeps them from being Toast. SJE is still mathematically in the hunt, but they will need to win their remaining three and pile up some GD in the process. Home ties against the Whitecaps ain't gonna do the job. COL and SKC punch their tickets to the post-season, with SKC winning at SEA and, with their game-in-hand on the Sounders, having a decent shot at winning the west. The overall is pretty straightforward - NER at the top, then the western top 3, then a mish-mash. Remaining schedule... Upcoming fixtures: Yeah, the schedules are images from the MLS site, because I'm a lazy bastard and I'm pumping out my back yard from nine months' worth of rain in a 36-hour time frame. Sue me. Upcoming this week, we should probably see another elimination, the official awarding of the Spoon, and maybe we'll get some clarity on the battles for the Red Line in each conference. Or we'll continue to get more parity and Decision Day will come down to a five-sided coin flip and the intense study of tea leaves. Until then,
Great job on the tables and analysis!!! The Galaxy's last three though! Well it was a good season "and thanks for all the fish."
In the most important record watch, Nashville's chances of matching or beating 2014 Chicago's Draw record has dropped to slightly better than 15% based on historic Draw rates, and about 40% based on their own pace.
San Jose will be eliminated with anything short of 9 points from the final three games. It looks like they could tie Vancouver for 7th at 44 points if they get 7 points, but for that to happen, LAFC would have to beat Vancouver to also get to 44, and then LAFC would win the total wins tiebreaker.
I agree: SJE is eliminated with any loss or draw, *OR* wins by both Van and Minn... which is impossible midweek because they play each other. If SJE win on Wednesday, then they can still be eliminated with a Van win on Wednesday AND and Minn wins on Sunday.
Cincy clinches the Spoon with: 1. any loss, AND any Toronto result. OR 2. any draw AND any Toronto win There are 2 other clubs not yet mathematically eliminated, but Cincinnati would have to win out to catch them.
CIN: NSH, @PHI, ATL TOR: PHI, @ATL, DCU Odds are high that Cincy will lose out. Toronto might as well, but it wouldn't matter.
I think the East is close enough together (other than NE) that nobody can clinch a home playoff match in mid-week games. KC and Colorado can clinch one in the West with a draw or with Portland or the Galaxy failing to win.
Odds are we have the official designation of the 2021 Spoon tomorrow night. We could also have another elimination with a SJE non-win if VAN also gets a non-loss. Those are the only two actual, probable/possible results from the midweek fixtures that I see happening.