They aren't a very very old team by definition. It's just that African teams tend to be more often than not among the youngest in a World Cup. Football has changed. It's not like in the 90s or in the first years of this millenium. Players enter the field at a much younger age and tend to retire also earlier. With 30 you are in the twilight of your career. All of Mendy, Sarr, Koulibaly, Ciss, Kouyaté, Gueye and Mané (all were starters in the last international break) will be 30 and up by the time Qatar 2022 gets underway. This is just too much. If Senegal can't fugure this out they will not qualify or if they qualify they won't do any better than in 2018. For me it's pretty clear as it gets.
IMO UEFA 1. Germany 2. Denmark 3. France 4. England 5. Belgium 6. Italy 7. Portugal 8. Croatia 9. Netherlands 10. Spain Play-offs 11. Sweden 12. Switzerland 13. Serbia or Czechia Can't pick between the last two, it would be a 50/50 if they play. I don't really rate any of the remaining "play-off candidate" teams (eg. Wales, Ukraine, Russia, etc) but it's just one game so you never know. Conmebol (in the following order in table) 1. Brazil 2. Argentina 3. Colombia 4. Ecuador 5. Uruguay (via play-off) AFC Group A 1. Iran 2. Korea Group B 1. KSA 2. Japan 3. Australia (play-off) Concacaf 1. Mexico 2. USA 3. Canada CAF 1. Algeria 2. Senegal 3. Morocco 4. Tunisia 5. Nigeria Boring I know, but Mali or Egypt have a shot against the last two.
Come on decide between Serbia and Czechia in order to complete your list. Our choices are pretty similiair by the way. Depending on who do you pick out of Serbia and Czechia we have 28 or 29 teams in common.
Ok, picking the Czech then. They are a better team. Serbia has higher potential but they haven't shown much of it lately.
So, we have 28 teams in common. Let's return in March/June next year to this post and see who did better. It will all come down to the follwing teams: Me: Serbia, Wales, Ivory Coast, Mali You: Switzerland, Czechia, Senegal, Nigeria
There is a difference between the teams I like to see at the World Cup and the teams that I believe will actually make it. For instance, while I am afraid that the success of Carlos Queiroz with Egypt will be to the detriment of Iran as it will deepen rifts with our team and its fan base, I have to admit that Egypt with Queiroz's at the helm (and with Mo Salah in the lineup), is actually quite likely to qualify for Qatar. Of course, the playoff draw (and whether Egypt are seeded) will be quite critical in determining Egypt's chances, but even an unseeded Egypt with Carlos Queiroz at the helm and Mo Salah in the lineup will have a decent chance. If the seeded team they face is Tunisia, they will even be regarded as favorites but psychologically and tactically, Queiroz is often at his best in the role of an underdog. Lets say, Egypt is pitted against Algeria or Morocco instead -- teams which by any measure are among the most deserving in Africa right now, These would be teams that Queiroz has faced and defeated when he was Iran's manager. I certainly wouldn't be rooting for Egypt against either Algeria or Morocco but can I really say, a priori, that Egypt won't be able to defeat them? No. Or lets say the opponent is Nigeria, another CAF team Queiroz has experience facing when he coached Iran. I certainly couldn't rule out Egypt edging Nigeria either. That is a pretty long winded way for me to say that, despite my preferences to the contrary, if I had to predict, I actually would predict that Egypt would qualify. The consolation for me wouldn't be seeing Queiroz qualify a side to the World Cup for a record 5th time (Iran twice for WC14 and WC18, Portugal for WC10, and S. Africa for WC98), but seeing Mo Salah in the World Cup (even if both Egypt especially, but also Salah, were easily forgettable in WC18 in Russia). But if the consolation is at the expense of either Algeria or Morocco, it wouldn't be worth it at all for me. At Nigeria's expense, or beating Tunisia, I could perhaps take it better (even if Iran and its coach would then have to deal with all the headaches the 'Queiroz groupies' in Iran will cause for it anytime Queiroz has any success anywhere).
We will see how good Queiroz' Egypt is at the afcon. They are in the same group as Nigeria, and failure to top the group sets up a second round match against first place in a group that has both Algeria and Ivory Coast. Egypt and Nigeria is the first game of the group, and will pretty much be a miny final as both teams would want to avoid either Algeria or CIV in the 2nd round. Egypt were poor when they hosted the 2019 afcon, losing in the 2nd round to South africa. They haven't really recovered since. You could say they haven't really recovered from their poor WC in Russia. It would be great to have a HEALTHY Salah at a middle eastern WC. But honestly I just don't see Egypt as deserving of one of 5 places even with the most in form player in the world ATM, and Quieroz. Egypt has failed with 2 previous high profile coaches at the helm in, Hector Cuper, and Javier Aguirre, at the World Cup and afcon respectively.
On Egypt. It would be thrilling to see an healthy Salah at the World Cup. He's at his prime. What a fantastic player he is. The big question is will the support cast around him finally step up? In 2018 Egypt were an one man team, let's face it. It looks better now but I want to see more. My thought process was that Algeria and Morocco are likely to qualify with the form they are in. I feel three Northern African teams will be in Qatar. So, I was left to chose between Tunisia and Egypt. What are the odds for all four making it to Qatar? It would be unprecedented and it would send quite a big statement to Africa and the rest of the world.
One matter I didn't take much into consideration is that some teams will be not able to host games. We see that already in the 2nd Round where numerious games are shifted to Morocco and other countries. Out of my five picks to qualify for Qatar 2022 Ivory Coast and Mali have actually that issue. I don't know if they will have adressed this by March. Playing your home games somewhere else than in your country especially in a two-legged playoff could prove to be a big handicap. It is what it is. I agree on CAF pushing to improve stadium and pitch quality. Africa is far behind in that area. It's about time that the national associations do something about this. That being said my 32 teams are set. I will not tinker around.
Gosh the UEFA playoffs and CAF playoffs in March will be spicy. Without sounding arrogant I don't see major tournarounds happening in CONMEBOL, CONCACAF and AFC. So, March is something to strongly look forward to.
Egypt wasn't just eliminated early in the knock-out stage in AFCON, they looked awful especially considering they were hosts (so much so I had even forgotten they were hosts). Coming on the heels of a poor World Cup, whatever pedigree Egypt had built in CAF with all those AFCON titles just evaporated in my eyes. (By contrast, another side that was eliminated early in AFCON, and who had a disappointing World Cup in terms of results (but certainly not performances),namely Morocco, lost none of their claim to be one of Africa's very best despite their early exit from AFCON). All that said, and even though I won't be rooting for them despite feeling that Mo Saleh deserves the golden ball award this year (completely cementing that claim by his hat-trick for Liverpool against Man U), the truth is that I can't rule out Egypt qualifying to the World Cup regardless of how they do in the upcoming AFCON. Queiroz doesn't have too many (or any) continental titles, but he does have the chance to qualify to make it 5 World Cup qualifications with 4 different teams and will give his all to make sure it happens.
On the latter point, when Iran clinched its qualification to the World Cup in Russia 4 years ago, Queiroz wasn't celebrating his team's achievement but was celebrating his own, showing a t-shirt with the #4 signifying the number of times he has led a team to the World Cup.
As a neutral my wish would be to see a Egypt - Tunisia playoff. I was going back and forth who my third North African choice should be. So let them face each other and battle it out. Egypt have a golden opportunity on the hands with the Arab Cup to become a seed. I don't like CAF's decision to hold the draw that late. It gives Egypt an unfair advantage. That's why I kind of hope that they will somehow drop points and remain a bottom seed. But I lean more towards them grabbing the last seed...
Serbia are once again coming off the back of a failed EURO qualifiers campaign. But if there is something history tells us is it is that Serbia tends to respond very well in World Cup qualifying. They did it in 2006, 2010 and 2018 and I think they'll do it again. Their new coach Stojkovic has them very well-drilled playing them very fluid attacking football. My only worry for them is that they overpace at times leaving also the back door open. Talent wise I rate Serbia above Czechia. Czechia could make it. In fact I wouldn't be surprised at all if they do.
What? How did you get to this conclusion? There are a number of players playing at a very high level nowadays until well into their 30s. At 30, a top player should still very much be at the peak of their career provided they have a good work ethic and can maintain fitness. If anything, top players seem to retire later nowadays.
I was and am still worried about Nigeria losing the seed to Egypt, but if Nigeria wins their last 2 games, I highly doubt it will be possible. Currently they are separated by 30 points. Lets say both teams win both games, which is very likely, they will still roughly be separated by 30 points. Currently top African teams get about 5 points from beating much lower opposition. That is with a multiplier of 25 for World cup qualifying. The Arab cup will be counted as friendlies (not sure if FIFA friendy or not) If they are counted as non FIFA window friendlies, Egypt has no chance. But lets say they are counted as FIFA window friendlies (very likely IMO), Egypt grouped with Algeria, Lebanon, and Sudan. If Egypt were to get roughly 5 points for beating Lebanon and Sudan in a World Cup Qualifier, in a FIFA friendly it would likely be around 2 points. Remember assuming both Nigeria and Egypt win both their last qualifiers, they would have to make up roughly 30 points. The max they'd get from beating both Lebanon and Sudan would be about 5 points. Beating Algeria would get them more, probably around 5 or 6 points for that match, so that would bring them up to anywhere from 10 to 13 points for winning all their first round games. Then in the quarter finals they would meet either Morocco or Saudi Arabia. But lets look at things a little closer here. Egypt will be without Salah, Trezequet (Aston Villa) Marmoush (Stuttgart) Mohammed (Galatassary) and El Neny (Arsenal) all key figues for the team. Can Egypt without these players beat a non European based Algeria team that may likely have some first team Qatar based players like Belaili, Brahimi, Bounedjah, Benlamri, not to mention other fringe players based in Tunisia ? I dont know, I dont necessarily think so tbh. If they do and go on to meet either a full strength Saudi Arabia or a Domestic Morocco (champions of the domestic based african cup) Could they win those matches without all of their stars ? I seriously doubt Egypt goes beyond the quarters. They couldn't beat Saudi Arabia at the WC with all of their stars, I highly doubt they beat a Herve Renard lead Saudi without them. I also doubt they beat Africas best domestic based team. Its highly debatable they beat Algeria in the first place and they would probably have to to stand any chance of accumulating a 30 point spread. Egypt has to hope Nigeria loses or draws one of their final matches I think, or pretty much win the Arab Cup, which I think is highly unlikely. I am worried for Nigeria, but not freaking out as much as I was before.
The only team likely to not have homefield advantage in the final playoff is Mali. Ivory Coast should have it sorted out in time, although it is embarassing that they are supposed to host the 2023 Nations Cup and they dont even have one stadium that passed the standards. The homefield might not be so much of an advantage as most countries still do not have anywhere near capacity crowds, and some stadiums are still empty. This probably will change though by March, and you can bet that all the relevant FA's will be pushing their governments to allow as many fans as possible to boost their chances of world cup qualification.
For me football players peak currently somewhere from age 25 - 28 .That's also backed up by several studies. A noticeable decline starts from around age 30 onwards. And it changes also on some factors such as position and the career path. If a player that played up until his end twenties domestically in Africa or Asia and then gets transfered to a strong league in Europe the player might peak even with 30 or older becauase of better training and more professionalism. This is very rare though. The game has evolved a lot in the last 15 years. It's faster than ever. Players need to adopt their game if they want to stay anywhere the top in their thirties. Without going in depth muscle mass decreases, players lose more and more acceleration and tempo, reaction time diminishes etc... Go look up the World Cup squads of teams in 1998, 1994 or 2002. You'll find plenty of players in their mid thirties. I don't think this many old players will be included in Qatar 2022. Ironically Russia 2018 had he highest average age in the World Cup history. That must be some strange generational thing. The end of the cycle of a certain generation of footballers. For Qatar we' ll get back to a much younger age which is good.
OK. Let's put it this way. If Nigeria win both its remaining games it's very unlikely that Egypt overtake them.
I'm not sure about Senegal. They have obviously enough class in order to come through the playoffs. There I could be proven wrong. It's a gamble from my part. Again. With six or seven players in your starting line up that are by the time of the World Cup 30 or older you won't stand much of a chance at the World Cup the way football has evolved over the years. Say what you want. I'm convinced of this.
Senegal may or may not qualify, and they may or may not do well at the WC should they qualify, but frankly I really dont think age will have anything to do with it. I think you are vastly overstating this age thing. Keep in mind the same thing was said about Croatia last world cup and they finished 2nd. I believe when Italy won in 2006, theres was an old squad as well. But lets look at silver medal Croatia in 2018. Starting 11 and age at the time of WC 2018 Subasic - 33 years Strinic- 30 years Rakitic -30 Perisic- 29 years Modric -32 Mandzucic - 32 years Vida - 29 years Lovren -28 years 8 of the starting 11 28 and above, 5 of those 30 and above. Corluka was a heavily used sub and he was 32 years old. Now below are the ages Senegals last starting 11 will be in Nov 2022 , however I've put in brackets players likely to overtake their position by the time of the world cup. Mendy - 30 Sarr - 30 Koulibaly - 31 Diallo - 26 Ciss - 33 ( I doubt he will be a starter much longer with Toure's form at AC Milan, he will be 25) Gueye - 33 Kouyate - 32 (I doubt he starts by WC with a highly rated Pape Sarr to take his place, 20 years old) Diatta - 23 Sarr - 24 Mane - 30 Diediheou- 29 (Was only starting because of injury to Dia who will be 25) Likely starters in 2022 close to or over 30 Mendy - 30 Sarr - 30 Koulibaly - 31 Gueye - 33 Mane - 30 5 players with one being a goalkeeper who happens to be one of the best goalkeepers in the world, and one being one of the best wingers in the world, both playing week in week out at the highest level. Gueye and Koulibaly are also playing at very top clubs as well and are noted to be one of the best in the world in their respective positions. So 4 out of the 5 starters who will be in their 30's are literally one of the best in the world in their respective positions. Bouna Sarr at rightback who will be 30 is a benchwarmer at Bayern Munich, and he has 2 very decent backups in Mbaye (27) and Sabaly (29) So while Croatia had 5 players in their starting 11 30 and above Senegal will likely also have 5. 4 out of Senegals 5 are literally world class players in their positions (Mane, Koulibaly, Mendy, Gueye) While out of Croatia's 5 30 plus starters only 2 could similarly be considered world class (Modric, Rakitic) Croatia was older, and Senegal's 30+ players are on average better than Croatias. Personally I think Senegal is ripe to do well in Qatar. I think their problems will more likely be coaching than age.
If the World Cup was to feature the highest ranked teams in each confederation (up to their respective WC allocations), using the FIFA rankings, the 32 teams in the tournament would be as follows: UEFA 1- Belgium 2- France 3- Italy 3- England 4- Spain 5- Portugal 6-Denmark 7- Netherlands 8- Germany 9-Switzerland 10- Sweden 11-Croatia 12- Wales 13- Poland CONMEBOL 1- Brazil 2- Argentina 3- Uruguay 4- Colombia (5- Chile) CAF 1- Senegal 2- Tunisia 3- Morocco 4- Algeria 5-Nigeria AFC 1- Iran 2- Japan 3- Australia 4- South Korea 5- Qatar (host) (6- Saudi Arabia) CONCACAF 1- Mexico 2- USA 3- Costa Rica (4- Canada) So how close to this list will the actual teams that will qualify prove to be and which one (if any) of these sides will fail to qualify? I have highlighted in blue those which have already qualified and in red those whose chance of qualifying is remote. The rest of these sides are either in great shape to qualify or are at least still in serious contention to do so.
There is a good website where you can calculate FIFA World Ranking points beforehand. I went through all the permutations. 30 points gap is still very wide. You can be relieved. Nigeria have at least 90% of chance keeping their seed. As long as Nigeria grabs four points out of the last two matches they are secured to be a seed. It gets inreresting only if Nigeria lose another qualifier or draw both. Because a potential loss to Liberia would see them losing around 21 points. A loss to Cape Verdy around 16 points. Two draws would see them losing a bit less. The Arab Cup games will be regarded as non international break friendlies. As it stands Egypt would collect only a meager total of 5,55 points with wins over Libanon, Sudan and Algeria. Leaves us only the quarterfinals and semi-finals. The final won't be taken into account either as it will be played 2 days after the updated rankings will be published on 16 December. https://football-ranking.com/calculate?match=20211113_LBR_NGA https://football-ranking.com/calculate?match=20211116_NGA_CPV https://football-ranking.com/calculate?match=20211201_EGY_LBN https://football-ranking.com/calculate?match=20211204_SDN_EGY https://football-ranking.com/calculate?match=20211208_ALG_EGY
It seems to me that Nigeria just need to make sure they win their group and advance to the playoffs. If they do, they are pretty much assured of being one of the 5 top seeds. If they don't, it will hardly matter if their FIFA ranking drops behind Egypt's.