Uh yeah... there was certainly 'an atmosphere' there.... maybe went a little too overboard I'm afraid. But anyway another round finished and mixed bag for our potential FTQs. In UEFA, it's been mostly bad as we have no potential FTQs currently in 2nd place. Finland beat Kazakhstan but managed to spoil Ukraine's attempt at becoming the first team ever to draw every one of their World Cup qualifying games by losing at home to them and put a huge dent in Finland's hopes. The fins aren't fin-ished yet though, but they will need to beat Bosnia away in what will be a huge clash, and may need a result in their final game against France, who should be qualified by then to make the playoffs. Finland still do have their fate in their own hand. Not so for Albania who got a huge win in Hungary but failed to follow it up by losing their penultimate clash with Poland. This means they will have to beat England at Wembley and hope the Poles lose at home to Hungary, yeah it looks over for Albania I'm afraid. For some time North Macedonia and Armenia were challenging Germany for automatic qualification. However, both have slipped and Romania can pip them both should they win against Iceland. It's not looking good there either. Montenegro are all but mathematically done too I'm afraid. In Asia's qualification were to end today, we'd have Oman and Lebanon - 2 FTQs playing off with each other for a place in the intercontinental playoffs. However, there's still 60% to go and it's hard not to see either Japan or Australia, or maybe even Saudi getting that coveted spot still. Africa remains our big hope I guess with both Mali and Tanzania surprisingly topping their groups. We'll see if the East Africans can hold off Benin and DR Congo, the latter who have been to the WC as Zaire. Then there's also Venezuela who still remain bottom of conmebol 9 points adrift... yeah, probably not going to happen.... So come on Mali + Finland, try and keep Qatar company next year as a World Cup debutant next year....
Its not such a coveted spot though unless AFC draws OFC in the playoff. Plus, I suspect the tables will look more normal again once we finish the 5th matchday of this third round. Right now the schedule is quite unbalanced (e.g. Japan still has 2 matches v Viet Nam)
I would fancy Asia's chances against CONCACAF as well although the betting odds would probably be pretty even. The playoffs are scheduled for June next year. Rather than the current system I would like to see a mini tournament decide the two places, similar to a world cup group with the top two teams going through. Maybe we could hold it in Qatar if the air conditioning in the stadiums are up to it. From all reports it worked quite well in September with the temperature in the stadium reduced to the low twenties from the outside 30+ (can't remember the exact temperatures but I think it reduced it by 8-10 degrees). I doubt we will be seeing a new team emerge from the playoffs as I think each confederation will supply a team that has already qualified.
Yep mini-tournament would be the way to go . I reckon one of Asia's big-5 could definitely take New Zealand or even Concacaf's 4th place, especially it it's Panama or one of the Central American teams - Australia did it against Honduras last time around. Conmebol is obviously the one you want to avoid, but again they've fallen vs the Aussies before. It makes more sense geographically to do an all-Americas playoff and Aszac (instead of Anzac) playoff, but you never know with FIFA....
Probably because you are imagining Japan or Australia representing AFC in the intercontinental playoff. But if the AFC playoff is Lebanon v Oman....
In Group A, when all is said and done, most likely 2 of Japan, Australia and Saudi Arabia qualify directly and one of them will have to go through the playoffs, Any of them would and should be favored against the likes of Panama or Honduras or, frankly, even Canada (who look in good shape to qualify directly among the top 3 in Concacaf). In Group B, Iran and South Korea are overwhelming favorites to qualify directly, with the race between the rest for the playoff spot way too close and too early to call. Some of those sides would have a good chance against Concacaf's #4 (e.g., UAE, Iraq, Syria) while Lebanon probably won't, but then again even if Lebanon finish 3rd in Group B (unlikely IMO). their chances of beating the 3rd place team in Group A to advance into the intercontinental playoff are less than beating Concacaf's #4.
Maybe CONCACAF has improved since last cycle but Syria were much tougher playoff opponents than Honduras were.
Oman or Syria may be able to give a match to Panama, Honduras, or Costa Rica... not so sure about Lebanon and doubt they'd get past Mexico, USA or even Canada these days.
I wanted to see how Mali have done in the past against the seeded teams they could face in the playoffs: Mali H2H v Senegal: 9W-14D-19L (LAST RESULT: 2019, 2:1 LOSS) H2H v Tunisia: 4W-1D-6L (LAST RESULT: 2021, 1:0 LOSS) H2H v Algeria: 11W-1D-13L (LAST RESULT: 2021, 1:0 LOSS) H2H v Morocco: 5W-5D-9L (LAST RESULT: 2021, 2:0 LOSS) H2H v Nigeria: 2W-3D-6L (LAST RESULT: 2016, 1:0 LOSS)
Finland wins a very crucial road game in Bosnia Herzegowina. Finland played for about 55 minutes with one man down yet scored two goals in that period. Bosnia have been perennial chokers. They always choke in important games. Finland will host France next. A draw could take them to the playoffs. If Bosnia do them a favour and avoid defeat to Ukraine then Finland won't be even in the need of points against France.
Actually no - a draw probably won't be enough for Finland as should Ukraine win in Sarajevo, they could pip them on goal difference. Should Finland draw, and Ukraine win by 1 goal then it will go to goals scored which goal have a one goal advantage. Should Finland draw say 0-0 and Ukraine also draw 1-1, it will be a tie on all accounts but Ukraine will take 2nd due to their head-to-head record. Finland really need to win that final game against France to be guaranteed still. It really comes down to how much Bosnia wants to finish 3rd and how much France, who will probably be qualified by then, take that game seriously.
Well was waiting for Montenegro to be officially eliminated before posting but here we go as a full round of games has been played here's an update: UEFA We have 2 teams in 2nd right now and still in it: Finland and North Macedonia. Finland are still very much in it but will need to beat France, or hope that Ukraine don't win in Bosnia to take 2nd in their group. Ukraine have a better head-to-head record so could pip the Fins should they finish tied up points, GD, and goals scored. North Macedonia got a huge win in Armenia and Iceland did them a favor by drawing Romania. Macedonia will take 2nd if they beat Iceland on the final day, but could lose out as Romania play Liechtenstein. Ironic as the last team to be a first time qualifier from Europe was Iceland, and they are also ironically the first team from Russia 2018 to be eliminated. AFC Lebanon conceded 2 injury time goals against Iran to be denied of a famous victory in their group. But Lebanon still hold on to 3rd place at the halfway point. It seems like no one wants that playoff spot in this group with Lebanon's win against Syria the only one any of the bottom 4 teams have got as Iran and South Korea walk this group. Oman got a draw in China but Japan won in Vietnam, so Oman are now in 4th and will play Japan next in Muscat. That's a big task to see if Oman can keep the pressure in this group. CAF There's just one more game to go from the group stages and things are really started to get interesting with several potential FTQs involved in the penultimate games. Mali have already secured their place in the final round. Burkina Faso can qualify but will need to beat Algeria away, which is a tough ask. Cape Verde have a similar situation, needing to beat Nigeria away. Benin are top of their group but need to not lose to DR Congo in their final showdown. DR Congo of course would be a FTP in name only as they competed as Zaire back in 1974 I think? The craziest group is B where Equatorial Guinea just caused a huge upset vs Tunisia. It means they are tied on 10 points with Tunisia; however, they have an inferior goal difference. EQ play bottom feeders Mauritania in the final game, but will need to hope Tunisia don't beat Zambia at home, or will have to somehow overturn a 6 goal differential. The crazy bit here is that Zambia can also qualify should they beat Tunisia by 3 goals and EG lose to Mauritania.
Zambia is capable of beating Tunisia on the road. The first time they played they were without UK based players Patson Daka, Fashion Sakala, and Enock Mwepu because of the stupid Covid restrictions. They just beat Mauritania 4-0 with a Sakala hattrick and Daka getting a goal. They will be fired up against Tunisia, and I think they can beat them. E. Guinea actually has the best chance to qualify, they need to win on the road against the groups worst side and hope that Zambia can at least get a draw against Tunisia. I think that could happen. I predict E. Guinea will surprisingly qualify for the next round.
I did not have Equatorial Guinea nor Zambia in my radar. I assumed that Tunisia would have a walk in the park. Observe that, if Tunisia does not qualify, Egypt would be a seeded team.
Will the ten CAF group winners be seeded into two pots, or will the draw be a free-for-all? Couldn't find a definitive answer anywhere.....
You are right that it can happen. But I would have preferred Zambia instead of E. Guinea be the beneficiary of Zambia getting a result against Tunisia in Tunisia. I do remember Zambia from the U20 World Cup in 2017, where they were pretty good. And from the match highlights I saw from them against Tunisia in the first leg, they were a bit unlucky to lose that game despite at the end losing 2:0. E. Guinea, on the other hand, I have no clue about except the match highlights of their home win over Tunisia didn't make them look particularly deserving.
Problem is they need to win by 3 goals to take top spot, which may be a bit too much to ask. However, they can deny Tunisia of a place in the WC....
Unfortunately for Benin I see DR Congo winning the decisive game in Kinshasa with a score of 2-1. Benin's campaign will end here.
Lol, I usually pronounce Benin a little differently (more like bay-neen than been-in or ben-in). Puns aside, I wouldn't seeing DRC at the WC either. They were one of the first African sides to make it way back when and have never made it back since. I consider them one of the major underachievers of African football along with South Africa and Mali. I would have liked to see them qualify ahead of Tunisia last time. If they don't make it this time around either though, they should qualify for a WC soon enough with the expansion.
DR Congo is up thanks to a penalty that didn't make any sense, although one couldn't really judge what had even caused the call since there don't appear to be enough cameras covering the game. (I assume there is no VAR, but can't be sure as the game has been pretty boring). In any case, I wouldn't want either of these two at the World Cup.