Interesting... will be at the stadium that day watching that . December 18th is Qatar National Day, so it's also to date of the World Cup final I believe the year later. I notice that both Morocco and Algeria are now down as Morocco A' and Algeria A' on wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_FIFA_Arab_Cup, meaning they'll be bringing only local league based players. Will their results even count towards rankings?
Thanks for the info. That's important news. I think four seeded teams are pretty much set with Senegal, Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia. Egypt have an opportunity at the hands with the Arab Cup to overtake Nigeria. That's why I think they will take the Arab Cup seriously.
Hopefully the randomness of what FIFA decides to count as friendlies in the rankings don't end up making a difference with the 5th seed. If Egypt play a strong team but their opponent doesn't will the game count as an "A" International?
Nigeria have to blame only themselves. It was only the shock defeat at the hands of the Central African Republic that put Egypt in a position to overtake Nigeria via the Arab Cup. As it stands there is only about 30 points separating both teams. Yeah, FIFA will count it as friendlies regardless of whether the teams show up with a strong squad or an highly experimental squad. Egypt's national team consists mostly of home based players. Meaning they will not have any issues to send a strong squad unlike Algeria or Morocco. I'm sure Nigeria will also try to schedule a few friendlies. It will get interesting.
Egypt have also the advantage of having to face higher ranked nations in their remaining two World Cup qualifiers than Nigeria. Meaning they can cut the deficit a bit to Nigeria. Egypt have to play Gabon (88) and Angola (129). Nigeria plays Cape Verdy (76) but also low ranked Liberia (150). Egypt will also play Algeria in the group stage of the Arab Cup. A win there and a run maybe to the semi-finals would probably seal the deal for them.
Wow - as an American fan I cannot believe our odds are that high.... Cananda as well, qualifying is not even half over in our confederation. Also, Colombian and Uruguay + Ecuador still have a lot to do...
While I think that Brazil have already clinched, regardless of the math and, hence, can accept their odds being 100%, all the rest of the odds are too high. For all the rest in the looking very strong category, deduct 5-10% (and spread it around some who are said to need a miracle), and you get to around what I would say are their odds of qualifying. That includes my own team, Iran, as well as everyone else you mentioned.
It is being rumored that Uruguay will sack Oscar Tabarez and announce a replacement on Monday. Tabarez was/has been Uruguay's manager since 2006, a very long time in international football. Unfortunate way to go, but Uruguay is in a bit of a precarious position in qualifying so the federation has decided to take the gamble.
I'll go out on a limb and say that Russia who are given astonishingly over 68% will not qualify. I see Croatia pipping them on the last matchday when Croatia host them. And I don't like their chances in a playoff either. While I have Colombia and Uruguay qualfying I find their odds a bit overstated. I have actually more faith in Ecuador for some reason. Ukraine's odds are as far as I'm concerned higher than this. I'm not very optimistic about them making it eventually but I think they will get at least to the playoffs. A win away in Bosnia in their last game will be probably enough for them to do so. I find also Iraq's odds way too high. I would deduct a few percent from them and give especially Lebanon more who have been doing fine.
Canada have been looking great. They are undefeated and played already their two toughest matches on paper with Mexico and USA away on the road. It will only get better for them. I have no doubts on Canada qualfying after how they took care of Panama. Panama, the team that looks so far your best bet for a playoff spot after all.
These odds are given mainly, taking into account historical results, ranking and such, which in turn may overstate (sometimes substantially) the odds for the putative favorites in the remaining games and understate the chances of their opponents in those games. That said, it is also true IMO that even if Lebanon end up in the playoffs instead of say Iraq, they would have a lesser chance of making it out of the playoffs than Iraq would.
I think AFC will probably have five + Qatar unless they get drawn with CONMEBOL or Canada drops to the playoff spot in CONCACAF.
El Maestro: 222 internationals at the helm including the 1990 World Cup. An incredible number. I wonder who they have in mind to take over (?)
I watched the entire CONMEBOL eliminatorias and I agree with Ecuador. They are inconsistent, for sure, but they have show glimpses of being a strong team and now sit comfortably in the 3rd position in the qualys. I think they will qualify. Colombia is a strange case, they for sure have the talent. On paper they could complicate literally any team in the world (they are actually the one team that got a point from Brasil, and they draw Argentina in Copa America and lost of penalties thanks to Dibu Martinez), but they often underperformed, and they have tie most of the games they played on qualys. Colombia will probably qualify, but they should step it up to be a real threat at WC. Uruguay is the biggest WTF case. Historically the 3rd big in southamerica, now they are struggling after being humillated by Brasil and Argentina. The point is not that they lost, but that they played worse than Venezuela or Bolivia on those matches. They were like staying still on the pitch, it seems like they werent even trying. It seems like they are going through a rough patch mentally but, with their squad, if they recover, they should qualify. BUT, if they end up completely collapsing, maybe their 5th spot could be overtaken by Chile, Peru or Paraguay. In the end, its likely that they qualify if they can somehow recover. While I agree with Brasil and Argentina % (they are already qualified, lets be honest), 85% for Uruguay seems too high, ill put them around 70%, and Ecuador and Colombia around 75%, still pretty likely, and bump Chile to something like 30%
If i had to give my own odds for the most likely qualifiers to Qatar at this point, they would be as follows: Qualified 1- Qatar, 2- Germany, 3- Denmark Almost Certain to Qualify 4- Brazil (100%), 5- Argentina (97%) 6- England (96%) Overwhelming Favorites to Qualify, 7- Belgium (95%) 8- Mexico (90%) 9- Iran (90%) 10- France (90%), 11- Korea Rep (85%), 12- USA (85%) Will Very Likely Qualify 13- Netherlands (80%), 14- Portugal (80%) 15- Italy (80%) 16- Australia (80%) 17- Colombia (80%) Will Probably Qualify 18- Spain (60%), 19- Canada (60%) 20- Sweden (60%) 21- Croatia (60%), 22- Ecuador (60%). 23- Japan (55%) 24- Morocco (55%) 25- Senegal (55%), 26- Uruguay (55%) 27- Algeria (55%), 28-,Saudi Arabia (55%) 29- Switzerland (55%) 50/50 to Qualify 30- Russia (50%) 31- Egypt (50%), 32- Nigeria (50%),
I think you are over rating our chances as compared to the two other favoured teams in our group. Only two of us can qualify directly and if three of us make it then one has to go through a couple of rounds of playoffs which isn't easy.
I expect Australia to collect a lot more points than Saudi Arabia over the last 6 matches, starting with the one hosting KSA. And among the 3, I rate Saudi Arabia the least likely to qualify via the playoffs, should they (as opposed to either Australia or Japan) end up 3rd in your group,
Kind of sad to see him go given that they had a run of difficult fixtures. Their final 5 qualifying games are against the bottom 5 teams in the qualifying table. They are using the Manchester Utd trick of replacing managers right before an easy run of fixtures so that their move appears to be a better decision than it really is.
I wasn't sure I agreed with this so I decided to take a look at their remaining schedule: November: Argentina (H), Bolivia (A) January/February: Paraguay (A), Venezuela (H) March: Peru (H), Chile (A) Looking at that schedule, I think they can even lose both next month and still be fine as long as they win their two remaining home games in the winter and at least draw the two away games. Although I think it's likely they will at least get 1-2 points next month. There's also the fact that the teams below are likely to cannibalize each other, in which case the last game against Chile might not even matter. So yeah if I had to bet, I would probably still peg them to finish fifth, though it will be tight.
Perhaps it's just me, but is Canada not more likely to qualify than the USA and perhaps even Mexico, considering that Canada already managed a 1-1 draw away vs. both of them, and they both still have to face Canada away from home ? (Mexico and the USA have also not yet faced each other, so one of them, or both, are bound to lose points)
This is all true - but we are talking about Canada here, who are experts at disappointing. Admittedly they usually blow up the second-last phase, but losing 8-1 when you only need a draw to advance takes a particular type of skill - one that their fans are probably fearful of returning at any point. J
Just as all foreign experts said about Denmark, as being in the most unpredictable European WC-22 qualifying group, that never the less became the absolute most predictable in all of the WC qualifiers.
That is a bunch of garbage. Egypt trying to rig the game in their favor to get a seed probably at the expense of Nigeria. Why would they count this stupid tournament yet not count the actual AFCON. If they aren't going to count AFCON, they shouldn't count this stupid thing either and they should use the rankings from November after the final match of the 2nd round.
Perhaps or perhaps not:-} Two things I say about Canada: First, I do expect them to qualify -- and I felt they had a good chance even before this round of qualifying got underway. But until they do, they will also need to overcome doubts in the psyche of their fans and players borne out of decades of mediocre results, failure and disappointment. Second, I feel Canada, tactically, is most dangerous and comfortable against teams like the US and Mexico playing from a counterattacking set up -- which is a set up they can use away from home even with less pressure. If there were doubts about Canada playing away, those would be mostly about how they can hold up psychologically in hostile environments, [which thanks to @vancity eagle correcting me, I can say Canada have answered against Mexico].