Just ran across this thread (didn't realize it existed - I had been updating the CONCACAF qualifying thread with the same thing). Thanks!!!
Shouldn't Jamaica be credited for the win at Honduras? Assuming I understand this right, they'd still be even because they matched our result.
From everything I have seen so far, after 14 games, Mexico, USA, and Canada will make up the top 3. Panama will get 4th. I know it's early, but everything is pointing that way. Canada has the next 2 games at home and is in a great position.
oops. Thanks. yes.We have a common opponent, but not a game that determines a point difference. 1) Mexico -3 (aES -2, aPa -1) 2) Canada even (no common opponents yet) 2) Jamaica even (even) 4) El Salvador +2 (aHo +2) 5) Panama +3 (hCR +2, +1 aES) 5) Costa Rica +3 (hJa +2, aHo +2, aPa-1) 7) Honduras +5 (h Ja +3, hCR+2)
After Round 7 (including movement): Mexico +1 - drops a point in a loss away @ USA USA -1 - holds steady win a win at home v Mexico Canada -2 - holds steady with a win at home v Costa Rica Panama -2 - gains two points with a win away @ Honduras Jamaica -5 - holds steady with a draw away @ El Salvador Costa Rica -7 - drops a point with a loss away @ Canada El Salvador -11 - drops 2 points in a draw at home v Jamaica Honduras -12 - drops 3 points in a loss at home v Panama In Round 8 we have: Jamaica v USA Panama v El Salvador Costa Rica v Honduras Canada v Mexico For reference, the so-called 'official' standings: 14 USA 14 Mexico 13 Canada 11 Panama 6 Costa Rica 6 Jamaica 6 El Salvador 3 Honduras
Interesting that this metric still tells us some things about the teams- especially that ELS really shit the bed in the easier half of their schedule and JAM has done much better. having turned halfway, though, this list will quickly grow to be less informative.
The Panama Honduras game yesterday might have been the defining game in the 4th place race so far. Until this week I thought Jamaica was getting that spot but now I think Panama
Yeah, barring any heroics, this should be the US, Mexico, Canada, and Panama race. Panama keeps hanging in there. They’re probably the best coached team in the region because they’re one of the weakest on paper. We need to put some distance between us and Panama, because I don’t want to qualify the “hard way”.
Man I was so hoping Hondo would hold on against Panama. That would have created some real separation between 3d and 4th spots. That said, this illustrates how important last night's win was. While we only held serve, we did so against probably the toughest opponent we'll face. It also underscores the importance of next game v Jamaica. If we can win we'll be well ahead of the WHDR formula, and therefore in great position to qualify (since WHDR is a formula that would comfortably qualify a team). Draw is fine, esp bc it would cost Jamaica two points. Loss is troublesome but not disastrous.
Happily we have a home game against Panama that will be effectively a six-pointer. We win that, we will have gotten the separation we need.
Way I see it, I'm going to assume we beat Panama at home for the sake of this argument. Panama must get more than three points more than whatever we get up until our match on Matchday 13: US: @ JAM vs SLV @ CAN vs HON @MEX PAN: vs SLV @ CRC vs JAM @ MEX vs HON I am circling Matchday 13 to be the one where we clinch automatic qualification.
Panama hosts Canada the last game of qualifying. The way things are going that might be a game with World Cup qualification on the line.
After Round 8 (including movement): Mexico 0 - drops another point in a loss away @ Canada USA -1 - holds steady win a draw away @ Jamaica Canada -2 - holds steady with a win at home v Mexico Panama -2 - holds steady with a win at home v El Salvador Jamaica -7 - drops 2 points in a draw at home v USA Costa Rica -7 - holds steady with a win at home v Honduras El Salvador -12 - drops a point with a loss away @ Panama Honduras -13 - drops a point with a loss away @ Costa Rica The current table, unadjusted: 16 Canada 15 USA 14 Mexico 14 Panama 9 Costa Rica 7 Jamaica 6 El Salvador 3 Honduras Six games left: Mexico 4 at home, 2 away USA 3/3 Canada 2/4 Panama 3/3 Jamaica 4/2 Costa Rica 3/3 El Salvador 2/4 Honduras
Last night had the absolute worst combination of results for US qualifying. I was really hoping to be able to qualify (effectively, if not mathematically) in the next window. At this point, we would need 9 points in the next window to do that, and even that wouldn't quite do it since Panama keeps pulling out results.. Since we haven't swept a window yet, that doesn't seem likely. Seven would be great. Six basically leaves us status quo, staring down the barrel of a must-wind game with Panama.
Not quite. We didn't lose, and based on how we played, we totally could have. It is a bummer that this is not lining up to be a relaxed cruise to WCQ like in 05 or 13. We're going to have to fight for it more than in those years. But if it comes down to a must-win at home v Panama I like our chances. Even during the putrescent 2018 WCQ cycle, we eviscerated the Canaleros 4-0 at home.
You are correct, that would have been worse. I was hoping Panama would drop points, or failing that, Canada would. Even Costa Rica winning was the worst outcome for that game, mathematically, although perhaps it helps us strategically by motivating CR more for their game with Panama.
I mean Panama also has a tricky window next time, away to Mexico and Costa Rica, and home against Jamaica. It's not crazy that they could come out of that window with only 1 point. I think our goal for next window should be 7 points, but that Canada game is going to be a tricky one because we're going to have to rotate somewhat for it and the two home games are much higher priority.
Some observations: This year's odd, unbalanced schedule has helped this thread maintain its relevance. Mexico and Jamaica have four more home games; Canada and El Salvador have just two more home games. The rest have a balanced three/three. Where the teams have played twice already: USA 4 of 6 points against Jamaica Canada 4/6 Mexico Costa Rica 4/6 Honduras Panama 3/6 El Salvador The top four - common destinations: @ Jamaica (a team that has evolved greatly) Panama won, Canada drew, USA drew, Mexico - next game @ El Salvador USA drew, Panama lost, Mexico won, Canada - coming in February @ Honduras USA won, Panama won, Canada next up, Mexico near the end @ Costa Rica Mexico won, Panama, Canada & USA yet to play Among themselves: @ Canada Panama lost, Mexico lost, USA - coming @ Mexico Canada drew, Panama, USA - both to come @ Panama USA lost, Mexico drew, Canada - final match @ USA Canada drew, Mexico lost, Panama - next-to-last match
You have a lot more confidence in Jamaica on the road than I do. I mean, I'm hoping for that, but I am not counting on them taking points off Panama.
I think with Jamaica, they are very hit or miss. They definitely have more talent than Panama, but Panama is just way better coached team. But guys like Antonio and Bailey can make something happen out of nothing.
US vs the Ocho +/-: Mex -3 (aPan-1, aES-2) Canada even Jamaica +3 (h/a +3) Panama +3 (+2 hMex, +2 hCR, +1 aES, -2 aJa) El Salvador +5 (hMex +2, +2 hJam) Honduras +5 (+2hCR, +3 hJam) Costa Rica +6 (+3 hMex, +2 hJam, +2 aHon, -1 aPan)
I think the point is Jamaica is dangerous. They could get blown out or get a tie in Panama and we wouldn't be surprised by either result.
I see Roughly 10 pts left on the schedule. The next break is easily the biggest one, need to get 7 points to avoid needing points @Mexico/@CR. I think Panama in March is going to be the World Cup (butt) clenching game. ------- LIkely L - @Mexico, @CR (San Jose is cursed, I don't care how bad they are or if they are eliminated already) Likely Draw - @CANADA (Don't think Edmonton in January is an option, so might be kind of a fake away game.) Likely Win - vs El Salvador, vs Honduras, vs Panama ---- Interested to see what sort of crowds/atmosphere Canada gets in Central America. Azteca was pretty tame when they played.