I think the contrast for both away games had nothing to do with respect but with tactics. Bunkering against Mexico at Azteca is near suicide. They will break you down eventually if you give them all the possession. Canada took it to them and Mexico were scared of their speed. Canada took away a lots of their possession while abusing their defense in a way they just aren't used to in the region. On the other hand, they were happy to give all the possession to the US who were without Mckennie and Reyna plus a decent striker. They bet correctly and the US didn't do much with the ball despite all that possession. Canada was happy to sit back and counter when needed and they rarely looked in trouble. I don't think they play the US that way at home, expect them to play at full strength like they did Mexico...which is acrually scary. The best comparison will be to see what the US do at Azteca. Will they do better, about the same or worse?
Too hard to say how the US will do given the game against Mexico is not till March. I do think our team was thrown off that Canada chose to sit back so much. Berhalter definitely didn’t expect it. They hadn’t done so in our previous games against Herdman. But also I didn’t see them fouling anyone relentlessly the way they fouled Pulisic basically every time he touched the ball. Which clearly they had been instructed to do. Canada is a good team but I don’t think there’s anything about them that’s scary if they choose to play it more straight up. Doing so opens them up them out quite a bit. Alphonso Davies is scary but that’s the case no matter what their game plan is.
And in the 2010 WC qualifying campaign they had to rely on goal differential to squeak into the Hexagonal (finished the third round tied on points with Jamaica).
And it's not like their good performances thus far in qualifying are "one offs". They also played very well in gold cup...without a few key player (including Davies). Canada is "for real".
These days the primary way to defend Christian Pulisic is to foul him as soon as he gets the ball. That's what everyone does everywhere, in the Premier League, in the Champions League, in CONCACAF.
Which is why he needs to focus on receiving the ball closer to goal- they can’t foul him in the box. That does take away one of his strengths- the ability to break lines by dribbling through them (such a rare skill these days). It’s move and counter-move. We will see how he continues to develop.
I think Pulisic's strengths are moving from space or moving to space either with or without the ball in motion. Put Pulisic at a standstill and he can still be effective but much less so than if he is moving. The problem with him recieving the ball in or near the box is when it is congested. There is no space for him to exploit. If he is near the box and the field is spread he can be extremely dangerous exploiting those spaces either on the dribble or through movement receiving a pass. People constantly compare him to Donovan and I think that is a good place to start. They are very similar in many ways. Both have similar speed (usually one of the faster players on the field but not usually the fastest or even second fastest). both much better running at a defense with space. Both deadly running at a defenses 1v1. Pulisic much better technically, Donovan (at least to this point) much better vision, Pulisic better imo with ball stopped 1v1 (but not really his strength). Pulisic (imo) a better natural finisher. Donovan improved later in his career, but had to work on it. (Donovan's minor weakness when younger was finishing when he had time to think about it, when it was an automatic finish, he was fine). The problem that Pulisic has had (imo) with the US is that defenses have been packing the box and Pulisic (and others) are receiving the ball near the top of the box and beating 1, maybe 2 or even 3 players before losing it. The only way that is going to work is for a guy to have an extremely quick release, beat 1 or 2 players, create a half space and get off a shot...or have another player find that half space for a quick combination in the box to put someone through on goal. Playing more vertically like we did against Jamaica (beginning of first half and 2nd half) might be the solution to creating more space or just doing a better job of moving the ball quickly. we often move the ball side to side and probe but we don't do enough to create significant spaces in the box or other dangerous areas of the field.
Part of Pulisic's style of play is to start from deeper positions. Any transformation independent of playing position would need to take place at club level. In terms of playing position, he was been highly effective playing in a 352 for Chelsea. Perhaps, playing up top in a 2-man forward line would be a good way to have him play closer to goal and to cut down on the tactical fouling. Aaronson's tendency is to play closer to goal. Even as a nominal a-mid with the Union, his average position was typically with those of the forwards. But he has been most goal/assist dangerous as a wide player, which is where I like to see him play. vs Canada vs Jamaica
After Round 5 (including movement): Mexico 0 - holds steady with a win at home v Honduras USA -1 - drops a point in a loss away @ Panama Canada -2 - holds steady with a draw away @ Jamaica Panama -3 - holds steady with a win at home v USA Costa Rica -5 - holds steady with a win at home v El Salvador El Salvador -6 - drops a point in a loss away @ Costa Rica Honduras -6 - drops a point in a loss away @ Mexico Jamaica -7 - drops two more points with a draw at home v Canada
Tight packs at the top and bottom with CR squeezed in between. I don’t think they rotated much (don’t think they can). Will be a big match for them here in the US. We need to push them under water.
The Panama loss hurt not only because we dropped a road point but also because we allowed them to hold at -3 in these standings. Even if we’d scraped an ugly draw we’d have been 5 points clear of Panama. But with the loss we’re only 2 points ahead.
After Round 6 (including movement): Mexico +2 - improves with a win away @ El Salvador USA -1 - holds steady win a win at home v Costa Rica Canada -2 - holds steady with a win at home v Panama Panama -4 - drops a point with a loss away @ Canada Jamaica -5 - finally gains two points with a win away @ Honduras Costa Rica -6 - drops a point with a loss away @ USA El Salvador -9 - drops 3 points in a loss at home v Mexico Honduras -9 - drops 3 points in a loss at home v Jamaica
As previously noted, six of the eight teams have played three times at home, three away, leaving them each with four home and four away matches to come. El Salvador has already played four times at home, only twice away, leaving just three home matches and five away. Jamaica has played just twice at home, four times away, leaving five home matches and just three away.
Bygones are bygones and all that, but how much better would this table look for us if we'd just avoided the bonehead goal against Panama and gotten an uggo draw? We'd be on 0, two points ahead of Canada and six points ahead of Panama, who would have -6. In fact if that had happened, Jamaica would be the fourth-placed team, which reflects a lot about how frontloaded their schedule has been with away games.
Very clearly a big missed opportunity. As it is, the table sits with 5 at the top and 3 at the bottom. 3-5 are happy to know that 1-2 play each other next. For purposes of qualifying, it's a fairly unimportant match (both 1-2 should qualify) - more important is taking points away from JAM on the 16th. Win there and create some separation.
Yeah, it's pretty simple to determine a successful window in November. 4-6 points = excellent 3 points through a win against Jamaica - good 2 points, or 3 points through a win against Mexico - okay 1 point - very bad 0 points - grab the pitchforks
I think the fourth place spot is where the action is going to be. Very close right now between Panama, Jamaica and Costa Rica. And I think Honduras will be heard from before it is over. Matchday 7 will have Panama on the road to Honduras, Jamaica on the road to El Salvador, and Costa Rica on the road to Canada. Huge games for all those teams. Matchday 8 has Honduras on the road to Costa Rica. Also a potentially pivotal match. But those teams are fighting for fourth place. We have already seen how one result makes a huge difference. Jamaica was dead in the water until they got that win in Honduras.
As if there won't be pitchforks if we get 4 points. Seriously speaking, expectations aside, November is an opportunity to really put some space between us and four place challengers. The shorter window means less rotation is needed. Home versus Mexico is our hardest remaining home game; away at Jamaica is probably our easiest remaining road game. Which makes them both swing games. Home against El Salvador and Honduras should be wins. Same with Panama, though they seem like a better team and it's a 3 game window. Away at Canada, Costa Rica and Mexico are dicey, with Canada more accessible because it won't be as "away" and CR because they aren't that good, but still all dicey. Which leaves the two games in this next window as the most likely to swing either way. Pick up 6, and you are looking at a back half with a really, really possible 9 points at home to get to 26 without needing a single road point in the last two windows. That's a lock to be Top 3. Even picking up 4 and you are looking at 24 with those 9 ... borderline, but not crazy. Walk out with 1 or 2 and suddenly you need to hold serve on those 9 and pick up road points against good teams, traditional houses of horror or both. Huge window. They all are. But this one is massive.
Funny thing is, I stood in front of the original American Gothic in Chicago one day and said - great painting, but he just doesn't look like a farmer (look at his hands and the skin on his head). I said to myself, "He looks like a dentist". Turns out, the model was a dentist . . .
No offense, but that fact that the cumulative total of your system is -34 tells me that your system is a bit nonsensical, I think it's because you assume away draws. A "neutral" system which assumes home wins and away losses, and calculates from there would look like this: Mexico +5 USA +2 Canada +1 Panama -1 Jamaica -1 Costa Rica -3 Honduras -6 El Salvador -7
Every team could theoretically have all home wins and all away losses, leaving them all at 0. Even the 8th place team on goal differential or whatever. But the aim is to be top 3 of the 8 and actually qualify. And home wins and away draws will almost certainly get you into the top 3 and therefore qualified.
Ranking vs opponents based on common opponents/locations. Head to head matchups aren't counted until both legs are completed. (So while Panama has 3 points against us for the loss there, the point total vs Panama isn't clear until the home leg). So the US vs Concacaf: 1) Mexico -3 (aES -2, aPa -1) 2) Canada even (no common opponents yet) 2) Jamaica even (ncp) 4) El Salvador +2 (aHo +2) 5) Panama +3 (hCR +2, +1 aES) 5) Costa Rica +3 (hJa +2, aHo +2, aPa-1) 7) Honduras +5 (h Ja +3, hCR+2) Maybe not that helpful yet, but after the next window it will start to fill in. For example, the US is going to play home to Mexico and away to Jamaica. Panama took 4 points in those games. We should learn more about our position vs competitors comparing results.