Judging by the bids for hosting the 2030 World Cup I don't see anything like Euro 2020 on the horizon. 3 or 4 nations co-hosting, sure. But not 10-12. I don't really see the need for the Euro 2020 model either. The expanded WC isn't that much bigger than the 32-team version in terms of # of games per day.
Another win today for Portugal v Qatar this time 3-0 and then this week v Luxembourg at home should make Portugal strong in the rankings for 7th, No?
Spain gained huge amount of points through their win over Italy in the Nations League. They have overtaken Portugal for now.
Indeed, Portugal passed Spain so they are now #5. Italy dropped to #7/#8 tied with Argentina. But in terms of point totals, not much to separate #5 from #11.
This link, updated as of Monday's results at the time of posting, shows different: https://football-ranking.com/fifa_rankings I think they might be counting the Nations League finals as a "major tournament knockout stage" so Italy, Spain, and Belgium don't actually lose any points from their losses. Granted it's only one source, but I also recall seeing a headline somewhere yesterday about Belgium losing first place and then it mysteriously vanished from the face of the Earth which makes me think they probably removed it because they realized it was wrong.
Italy is probably fine, Spain is in a bit of trouble. But I still think Spain will qualify. They have too much quality to not make it, even if they have to go through the playoffs.
I don't think we know for sure if seeding will be used but it seems highly likely (in which case Spain would certainly be seeded). Still some unknowns about the playoffs though: Will both rounds be seeded or just the first round ? How will the brackets be created? How will home advantage be determined?
Depends on which ranking they take I guess. The draw is next April after most of the main qualifying stage and the UEFA playoffs but before the intercontinental playoffs which are in June.
I assumed based on @verde-rubro's wording that he was talking about the WC final draw. As for the UEFA playoffs, I believe the first round will be seeded and hosted by the higher seed. The second round I believe will be unseeded and hosted by one of the two teams based on a draw, which is stupid and unfair but is the same format as was used for the Euro 2020 playoffs. I don't know why they wouldn't just do that round on neutral ground. Makes the whole thing all the more unpredictable. EDIT: Seeding is based on performance in the qualifying group stage I believe. So the top 6 runners-up will go into Pot 1, the bottom 4 + the 2 Nations League group winners in Pot 2. I don't know if they will have some sort of predetermined bracket or just do another (unseeded) draw for the second round after the first round is completed.
In previous cycles they took the second to last ranking because they didn't want a team to actually benefit from going through the playoffs and winning. Portugal for example would have been seeded in 2014 if they had taken the November 2013 ranking, but they took the October 2013 ranking and they were drawn with Germany instead. It would obviously be stupid to intentionally finish second just to get a chance at better seeding and risk not making it at all in the process, but nonetheless it's a little weird for a team to end up benefiting from being bad during the group stage, so I think that's why they do it the way they do.
So the Intercontinental play-off teams will go straight to the bottom pot in the world cup draw or what? What about avoiding continental clashes? No idea why they can't wait until June. 5 months is more than enough to sell tickets and plan all the logistics.
Here's some guesswork: If the seeds are the hosts + 5 UEFA + 2 CONMEBOL then that leaves 8 UEFA teams for another pot. Then form the remaining pots this way: AFC (4.5) + CONCACAF (3.5) CONMEBOL (2.5) + OFC (0.5) + CAF (5) and have AFC playoff CONCACAF, and CONMEBOL v OFC. Then you only need a small bit of jiggery to ensure that the 3 non-UEFA seeds don't get drawn against teams from their own confed. Any good?
Well it would be pretty stupid to do that this time because its only UEFA that would have finished their qualifiers. CAF, concacaf, AFC, and Conembol all finish in the march window.
Using the 2018 method is the most fair IMO. The problem with the older method of grouping CAF/CONMEBOL is that you make it less likely for the best Asian and CONCACAF teams to draw one of the "weaker" teams in the WC.
Agreed. I'm just thinking it's the only way to do it. The final draw for 2018 was already contrived enough.
I have the strong feeling that FIFA will move away from seeding only by their rankings. There are several reasons for that. Most important is that there are still not all teams known on the day of the Final Draw. There are 2 vacant positions and they are in Pot 4 for sure. Secondly, with Qatar, Brazil, Argentina being definitly seeded there are 5 seeded uefa teams. So there is the chance to have a pot with the other 8 europeans put together. as for the other teams. Mexico and USA as well as the 3rd and 4th team of Conmebol will have potentially have the highes ranking. So pot 3 will be completed also by the 2 best ranked asian and the 2 best ranked african teams. Pot 4 then holds the remaining 3 african teams + 2 asian teams + 1 from Concacaf + the 2 intercontinental playoff winners yet to be decided. pots could be drawn from 4 to 1... The draw of WC 2018 was very strange as many people did not understand the computer based disabling of groups a drawn team was going to.
The problem will be that with the playoffs you won't know who from conembol, concacaf, afc, Oceania will go through, so you won't know which groups to avoid in order to keep 2 teams from same confederation apart. It will be a huge mess.