Australia's win over Oman gives them their 11th straight win, which I read is the longest active winning streak for any national team right now. Iran is one win behind with 10 consecutive wins. Australia meet Japan next and, if history is any guide, their streak is likely to end as Australia haven't defeated Japan in over a decade. Conversely, assuming Australia don't defeat Japan, Iran can become the new active record holder with 11 straight wins, if Iran beat S. Korea in Tehran -- a result which would fit the pattern of historical results between the two sides. But there are a lot of ifs there too...
So Rwanda will need to avoid defeat and at least match Mali's result this weekend to stay alive. Kenya would be eliminated if they lose to Mali.
135. Liechtenstein (they needed a win and help, and lost 4-0 hosting North Macedonia, which was the first UEFA game to end) 134. Malta (lost 4-0 hosting Slovenia) 133. Cyprus (lost 3-0 hosting Croatia) Belarus survived because Cezch Republic vs. Wales was a draw. Latvia survived because Norway did not beat Turkey (it was 1-1). Iceland survived with a 1-1 draw hosting Armenia. They would have been eliminated with a loss. 100 more teams will be eliminated in qualifying. Austria is likely to be eliminated from the top two on October 12, in which case their Nations League ranking would keep them alive and would eliminate Gibraltar, who won a lesser Nations League group. If Russia wins at Slovenia on October 11, Gibraltar will be eliminated then. Algeria won 6-1 hosting Niger, and Burkina Faso won 4-0 at Djibouti. Algeria and Burkina Faso have 7 points, but Algeria has a better goal differential and got a draw at Burkina Faso. If Burkina Faso beat Djibouti on October 11 and/or Algeria beats Niger on October 12, the losers will be eliminated.
You're right, and Wikipedia is wrong. You have good attention to detail. Latvia can pass Norway, but can't pass Norway, Turkey, and Montenegro. Latvia needs Norway to lose to Montenegro, which makes Montenegro need to lose their other two games, one of which is against Turkey, and Turkey winning would put them above Latvia. I had the order of eliminations for the three games I noted, but I don't know when Latvia's 1-0 loss hosting Netherlands ended. I think it was early, so I'll make them 135 and renumber the rest. 135. Latvia 134. Liechtenstein 133. Malta 132. Cyprus I posted the scenarios for tomorrow in UEFA, and nobody in a CAF group that plays their third game tomorrow can be eliminated. In Group I, Morocco and Guinea have two games played because of the coup in Guinea, and that will be made up on October 12. Tomorrow they play their third game, and Guinea-Bissau and Sudan play their fourth game. Guinea plays Sudan, and Guinea-Bissau plays Morocco. Both games and Guinea vs. Morocco on October 12 will be in Morocco. Sudan will be eliminated with a loss, or with a draw and a Morocco win, so I call that a certain elimination. For CAF and UEFA combined, I say there are three certain eliminations and three likely eliminations tomorrow. If all six of them are eliminated, there will be 125 countries left, and the significance is that one-fourth of them (31 of 124 excluding Qatar) will qualify.
Don't forget the Faroe Islands! If Scotland beat Israel today and then the Faroes lose to Austria, the Faroes will be 10 points behind 2nd place with only 3 matches left. 2nd place is the only way they can qualify now that the Nations League route is impossible (see previous blather).
Continuing on the Nations League route, I notice that Slovenia host Russia on Monday, and if Slovenia lose and Croatia get at least a point against Slovakia then 2nd place becomes unachievable. That would mean that teams below Slovenia in the NL queue no longer have a chance of qualifying that way, which would eliminate Gibraltar and simplify the situation for the others (Montenegro, Albania, Armenia).
I didn't notice Faroe Islands. I did every UEFA group and only wrote about Moldova from their group. I noticed that Gibraltar could be eliminated, and I said it would take a Slovenia loss without noticing it would also take a win or draw by Croatia. Montenegro, Albania, and Armenia will end the month with a chance at the top two, so not being able to qualify from the Nations League can't eliminate them until November. Guinea vs. Sudan is 0-0, and Lithuania leads Bulgaria 1-0. If Sudan loses and/or Lithuania doesn't win, they will be eliminated. If Sudan and Lithuania survive, the next eliminations could happen after the games that start at 12:00 P.M. USA Eastern. Edit: Sudan trails 1-0.
Susan equalized, gave up a goal 3 minutes later, and scored in the 88th for a 2-2 draw to stay alive. Lithuania scored, allowed a goal, and Fedor Cernych scored in the 82nd and 84th to win 3-1 and stay alive. In the next set of games: Republic of Ireland must win at eliminated Azerbaijan to stay alive. Georgia must win hosting Greece and have Sweden not win hosting Kosovo, and Kosovo must win or draw to stay alive. Moldova must win hosting Denmark and have Scotland draw or lose hosting Israel, and Faroe Islands must win or draw hosting Austria or have Scotland not win hosting Israel. In the games at 2:45 P.M. USA Eastern: Lithuania needs Switzerland to not win hosting Northern Ireland. Republic of Ireland (if they win earlier) needs Serbia to lose at Luxembourg. I wonder when the last time (if ever) Luxembourg was not one of the first two eliminated teams in their group, but that is likely to happen. Zambia, Mauritania, Liberia, Kenya, Rwanda, and Madagascar could be eliminated tomorrow.
129., 130., and 131. Moldova, Georgia, and Kosovo Georgia lost 2-0 hosting Greece, who scored in the 90+5th minute. I'm guessing that it ended after Sweden's 3-0 win hosting Kosovo, which had 5 minutes of stoppage time announced, but I am not sure. If Georgia lost first, they were eliminated before Kosovo. If Kosovo lost first, Georgia and Kosovo were eliminated simultaneously. Scotland came back to score in the 90+4th minute to win 3-2 hosting Israel, which eliminated Moldova. With 6 minutes of stoppage time announced before the goal, I am guessing Scotland won after Greece and Sweden, but I am not sure. In my previous post, "Susan" should be "Sudan."
Wikipedia pointed out that Andorra and Kazakhstan are eliminated. Kazakhstan lost 2-0 hosting Bosnia-Herzegovina, and they were eliminated when Ukraine won 2-1 at Finland. Finland has a game in hand on Ukraine, so it surprises me that Kazakhstan would have been alive with a loss and a Finland win. Kazakhstan was eliminated when Finland vs. Ukraine was in the second set of games, so Kazakhstan goes in the previous group that becomes 128 through 131: Kazakhstan, Moldova, Georgia, and Kosovo. 124 through 127: Andorra, Lithuania, Republic of Ireland and Faroe Islands: Andorra: They lost 5-0 hosting England. Andorra needed a win and help to stay alive. Lithuania: Switzerland won 2-0 hosting Northern Ireland. Lithuania needs Switzerland not to win. Republic of Ireland: Serbia won 1-0 at Luxembourg. Republic of Ireland needed Serbia to lose at Luxemborg. Faroe Islands: After Scotland beat Israel, Faroe Islands needed a win or draw hosting Austria and lost 2-0. In both sets of games, I do not know what order the games ended in. 122. Sudan: After their 2-2 draw against Guinea in Morocco, they needed Morocco not to win hosting Guinea-Bissau, and Morocco won 3-0. Sudan and Guinea-Bissau have 4 games, and Morocco and Guinea have 3 games and a makeup game on October 12. The makeup game is why that group played Matchday 4 before any other CAF groups. Morocco vs. Guinea-Bissau ended after the UEFA games. Sudan is the fifth team eliminated on a day in which they played a draw in a group stage. The 122 remaining teams in 41 in UEFA, 39 in CAF, 13 in AFC including Qatar, 11 (all) in OFC including inactive Cook Islands, 10 in CONMEBOL, and 8 in Concacaf.
Sudan that I numbered 122 should have been 123. 122. Rwanda (lost 1-0 at Uganda) 121. Kenya (lost 1-0 hosting Mali, and it ended after Uganda beat Rwanda) Madagascar must win hosting DR Congo. Liberia needs a win or draw at Cabo Verde. Both of those games start in a little over an hour.
120. Liberia (they needed a win or draw, and Cabo Verde scored the only goal in the 90th minute) Madagascar survived with a 1-0 win hosting DR Congo. Zambia went up 1-0 and got a 1-1 hosting Equatorial Guinea, who surprisingly is above Zambia, 7 points to 4. Zambia survived, but they will be eliminated if Tunisia wins at Mauritania in the last CAF game today. Since nobody in Concacaf or CONMEBOL can be eliminated, the next possible elimination after Zambia is tomorrow, when there are 6 games in CAF and 11 games in UEFA. Here are tomorrow's possible eliminations: UEFA Group E: Estonia hosts Wales, and Belarus hosts Czech Republic. Estonia needs a win or draw. Belarus needs a win and Wales to draw or lose. UEFA Group G: No possible eliminations UEFA Group H: Cyprus hosts Malta (both are eliminated), Croatia hosts Slovakia, and Slovenia hosts Russia. Slovakia needs a win, or a draw and a Russia loss. Slovenia needs a win, draw, or loss and Croatia loss to finish in the top two, but they have a small chance at making the playoffs from the Nations League. UEFA Group J: Iceland hosts Liechtenstein, North Macedonia hosts Germany, and Romania hosts Armenia. Iceland needs a win and for North Macedonia and/or Armenia not to win.
I need to make a correction to what I had wrote here, specifically the 11 straight wins by Australia which I had read is a record, is a record in terms of consecutive World Cup qualifying games and not what I had assumed and mentioned in that post. Iran's 10 straight wins, on the other hand, aren't only WCQs but include some friendly games too.
To clarify further its only a record within a single campaign. Others have won more in a row but over two campaigns.
119. Mauritania Tunisia got 14 shots, and got a very high percent of them on goal. They had more shots on goal, 11 to 4, but they got a 0-0 at Mauritania. Zambia stayed alive because they can tie for first, but I didn't post earlier about the possibility of Mauritania beaing eliminated. Tunisia has 10, Equatorial Guinea has 7, Zambia has 4, and Mauritania is eliminated with 1. CAF elimination scenarios for tomorrow: Group A: Burkina Faso hosts Djibouti, and Niger hosts Algeria the next day. Djibouti must win. Group D: Mozambique hosts Cameroon, and Cote d'Ivoire hosts Malawi. Malawi must win or draw. Mozambique must win. Group F: Gabon hosts Angola, and Libya hosts Egypt. Gabon must win. Angola needs a win or draw, or Egypt draw or loss. They are eliminated if they lose and Egypt beats Libya. That's 5 possible elimination each in CAF and UEFA tomorrow.
Slovenia being eliminated from the top two would eliminate Montenegro, Albania, Armenia, and Gibraltar from a playoff spot from the Nations League. None of the first three can be eliminated this month, but Montenegro will be 6 points and at least 7 goal differential behind Norway if they lose at Norway today. Montenegro ends with two home games, but the first game is against Netherlands, who will lead Norway by 2 points before that game if they beat Gibraltar and Norway beats Montenegro. Even if Slovenia ends the day with a chance at the top two, a playoff spot will probably be taken tomorrow. If Austria loses at Denmark and Scotland wins at Faroe Islands, Austria will be eliminated from the top two. If Hungary loses at England and Albania vs. Poland has a winner, or Hungary draws at England and Albania beats Poland, Hungary will be eliminated from the top two. Assuming France, Spain, Italy, and Belgium finish in the top two, one playoff spot will go to Wales or Czech Republic, and the order for the other spot is Austria, Hungary, Slovenia, and the teams below Slovenia that I named in the first sentence of the paragraph. Spain is the team of the Nations League Semifinalists most likely to miss the the top four in their group, but they end at Greece and hosting Sweden with a win and a draw enough to guarantee the top two. 118. Mozambique (needed to win and lost 1-0 hosting Cameroon) Gabon won 2-0 hosting Angola, so Angola needs Egypt to not win at Libya. Burkina Faso vs. Djibouti and Cote d'Ivoire vs. Malawi are before Libya vs. Egypt. The UEFA games are 15 minutes before Libya vs. Egypt, so if Angola is eliminated today, they will be the last team eliminated today.
116 and 117. Djibouti and Malawi: Djibouti needed to win and lost to Burkina Faso 2-0 in Morocco. Malawi needed to win or draw and lost 2-1 at Cote d'Ivoire.
Mostly this evening that hasn't been the case, but in the 71st minute Croatia have equalised while Slovenia are losing.
114. and 115: Estonia (needed to win or draw lost 1-0 hosting Wales) Belarus (needed a win and help from Estonia aginst Wales and lost 2-0 hosting Czech Republic 111, 112, and 113: Gibraltar (eliminated by Slovenia being eliminated from the top two in ther group as they lost 2-1 hosting Russia and Croatia vs. Slovakia was 2-2) Slovakia (needed a win, or a draw and a Russia loss) Angola (needed Egypt to draw or lose at Libya and Egypt won 3-0) The same game eliminated Gibraltar and Slovenia. I know the games in 114 and 115 ended before the games in 111 to 113, but I don't know the order within the group. If Estonia ended before Belarus, Estonia and Belarus were eliminated simultaneously. 101 countries have been eliminated or withdrew. If 5 or more teams get eliminated tomorrow, a majority of the 211 teams will be out.
Luxembourg, Northern Ireland, Bulgaria, Israel, Hungary, and Slovenia (if Austria loses at Denmark and Scotland wins at Faroe Islands to give Austria and a team from Group E the Nations League playoff spots; unless France, Spain, or Italy falls out of the top two; and in that case Slovenia would be eliminated tomorrow and Austria would be eliminated next month) in UEFA; and Niger, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Nambia, Congo, Togo, Guinea-Bissau, and Guinea in CAF are 14 possible eliminations tomorrow. 110 teams are left, so the amount of remaining teams could fall below 100. The most eliminations in one day were ten teams in CAF Round 1 on September 10, 2019.
Austria have to pull out some good results to achieve 2nd in the group, but they have the cushion of the likely NL spot, so perhaps they won't be fully motivated. Even if something goes their way tonight they'll still have a lot to do. I hope they make a go of it, but I'm expecting them to end up going the NL route.
Senegal is currently beating Namibia 2-1. Should this result hold, Namibia, Congo, and Togo will simultaneously be eliminated and won't be able togo (mwahaha) to Qatar next year, regardless of the result between the other two teams. Senegal would also become the first team to qualify for the final qualifying round from Africa.