Most noteworthy teams to miss qualifying for Qatar 2022

Discussion in 'FIFA and Tournaments' started by Iranian Monitor, Oct 9, 2021.

  1. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Last time, Italy was obviously the most noteworthy absentee in Russia 2018, but there were several others too including the United States from Concacaf. Will there be any notable absentees this time? We know Japan look like they are in trouble, although I still think they will ultimately qualify, maybe directly or perhaps through the playoffs. Any other candidates?

    Put differently, if you took the top ranked teams in each confederation and their past history qualifying to the World Cup, which sides won't make it this time? For now, I am pretty sure Costa Rica won't make it from Concacaf, while among the bigger names, all look in good shape to qualify (Maybe Spain will end up having to qualify through the playoffs?).
     
    glennaldo_sf and Every Four Years repped this.
  2. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Incidentally, the most consistent teams to qualify from each confederation since the World Cup took its present, 32-team format, are as follows (sorry for any mistakes/omissions as I am relying mainly on my memory and a very quick, cursory, look at Wikipedia). The cut-off is batting over 500 or, in other words, qualifying to at least 4 of the last 6 tournaments.

    UEFA; Germany (6/6), France (6/6), Spain (6/6), England (6/6), Italy (5/6). Portugal (5/6), Croatia (5/6), Holland (4/6), Belgium (4/6), Switzerland (4/6), Denmark (4/6), Serbia* (4/6)

    CONMEBOL: Brazil (6/6), Argentina (6/6), Uruguay (4/6), Paraguay (4/6)

    AFC: South Korea (6/6), Japan (6/6), Australia (4/6 or 3/3 since moving to the AFC), Iran (4/6), Saudi Arabia (4/6)

    CONCACAF: Mexico (6/6), USA (5/6), Costa Rica (4/6)

    CAF: Nigeria (5/6), Cameroon (4/6)

    --------------
    *includes WC98 qualification by former Yugoslavia
     
  3. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    Out of the teams on the lists ^ I still have a feeling Uruguay is going to have a tough time qualifying. Ecuador is doing a decent job at home at altitude while Colombia is playing a bit better since hiring Rueda. Peru and Paraguay are in striking distance.
     
    Iranian Monitor repped this.
  4. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    And looking at Uruguay's next 5 matches:

    @ Argentina, @ Brazil, Argentina again, @Bolivia (altitude) @ Paraguay .
    That is a pretty brutal schedule.
     
    Paul Calixte and Iranian Monitor repped this.
  5. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    Out of your list I'm confident that Switzerland won't qualify this time. Their win over France at the EUROs was their peak. They will end up losing in the playoffs.

    Paraguay was actually my pick to get back to the World Cup before a single ball was kicked. However I'm dissappointed with their inability to pick up wins where they should do so. Too many draws. You can't draw your way to the World Cup.

    Japan won't qualify directly. They are six points adrift of both Saudi Arabia and Australia. They will make it via the playoffs then I guess.

    Costa Rica won't qualify. As simple as that. They don't have any young talent coming up, relying still on their heroes from 2014.

    Cameroon is talent wise not among the best five teams in Africa right now. They will not make it.
     
  6. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    Uruguay have a habit of finishing 5th and going into the playoffs. I don't see them finishing any lower than that. So they should make it to Qatar.
     
  7. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    Peru and Gareca can surprise if they can wake up and get consistent. Paraguay hosting them head- to- head in the aforementioned brutal stretch can also be decisive.

    We have seen them get eliminated finishing 5th before in the playoff so that is why I am still not convinced by them.
     
    Every Four Years repped this.
  8. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Is there any indication what the playoffs will look like? In the past, the format was kind of clear but this time not so.
     
  9. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    Looking at possible playoff foes:

    Concacaf- If they face Honduras or Panama Uruguay should beat them and intimidate them.
    Canada would be interesting. I know people are penciling them into the top 3 but I still think they are more likely to finish fourth.

    Oceania- New Zealand will be pesky. They have some good youngsters and I think they can give them a run like Australia did years ago. But Uruguay should be favored in this too.

    Asia- Japan would be a tossup. I may even favor Japan. Any other Asian team Uruguay would probably trounce.
     
  10. Every Four Years

    May 16, 2015
    Miramar, Florida
    Nat'l Team:
    India
    Nope, it's really strange. Imo FIFA has always treated the intercontinental playoffs as a bit of an afterthought anyway. My sense is there is some politics at play behind the scenes that is still being sorted out and FIFA doesn't want to make any sort of commitment any earlier than they need to.
     
    Iranian Monitor repped this.
  11. pipinogol

    pipinogol Member+

    May 20, 2016
    Club:
    Cary RailHawks U23
    2018 world cup qualification Japan lost two games: UAE at home and Saudi Arabia away. They still topped the group...

    Being so categoric with just 3 games is ridiculous, Australia hasn't even played Japan or SA yet.
     
  12. pipinogol

    pipinogol Member+

    May 20, 2016
    Club:
    Cary RailHawks U23
    ...Why exactly?
     
  13. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    #13 Kamtedrejt, Oct 9, 2021
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2021
    Context is key here.
    That loss to Saudi Arania came on the last matchday when Japan was already assured qualification.
    Looking at the standings you'll notice that Japan is currently six points adrift of BOTH Saudi Arabia and Australia. It wasn't that big of an issue if it was only one team that had such a big lead.
    Japan will on the next matchday host Australia. For me a must-win fixture for Japan if they count on direct qualification.
    A draw would throw Japan that much back to the point that catching up the top two would be highly unlikely.
    I would go as far as it would end basically all the hopes of direct qualification.
    Saudi Arabia and Australia are very well aware of the gap to Japan. Hence they will do everything in their power to capitalise on that golden opportunity.
    I don't see both teams dropping points to China or Vietnam.
    Oman have shown that they can cause trouble. That could be potentially a tricky game. That's the only trap I see for Saudi Arabia and Australia. Both played Oman already once and both won.

    To sum up Japan can't rely much on the other teams to do them a favour. They are in a situation where they need to start some sort of a streak. Otherwise the best they can grab is a playoff spot.
     
  14. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    While you make a good case why Japan are in trouble, and I can't quibble with most of your points, your comments also suggest why its still premature to totally dismiss Japan's chances to directly qualify: their upcoming game against Australia! Japan can start getting back into the race if they defeat Australia. And they are able to do so.
     
  15. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    My odds for Japan.

    Finishing top two

    Right now: about 30%
    In case of a win over Australia: 50%
    In case of draw or loss: 1%

    I'm serious. Australia and Saudi Arabia will hardly drop any points. It's a final for Japan coming up against Australia.
     
  16. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Reasonable odds, more or less.
    :DNot so reasonable.
    But, yes, Japan need 3 points against Australia to have anything better than a 10-15% chance to qualify directly.
     
  17. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    I guarantee you. If Japan fails to beat Australia in Saitama I gurantee you that they won't end up in the direct qualification spots.
     
  18. pipinogol

    pipinogol Member+

    May 20, 2016
    Club:
    Cary RailHawks U23
    I think a draw is still not the end for Japan...

    If Japan draws Australia next match and then wins all the remaining games they will finish with 22 points.

    Saudi Arabia wins everything at home and the 3 weaker teams away but loses to JPN/AUS away = 24

    Australia wins everything against the 3 weaker teams (18 pts) but gets only 1/6 against Japan and 3/6 vs KSA = 22

    It would come down to goal difference between Japan and Australia in this scenario.


    But we're ofc assuming the 3 bottom teams will simply lose every match against the top 3. I'm not so convinced of that.
     
  19. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Even my odds (10-15%) mean you would probably be proven right.;) The difference is this: lets say Japan v Australia ends in a draw: if someone offered to pay $1,000 if I put $10 on Japan qualifying directly, I would take that bet in a heart beat. And so would many others...
     
  20. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    Something I noticed is that there is quite a remarquable gap between the top five and already the 2nd tier teams in Asia.

    Just look up the standings in both groups. Iran, South Korea, Australia and Saudi Arabia have wracked up accumulated 34/36 points so far.

    My theory is that Japan started this round very complacent against Oman as they thrashed all their teams in the round before.
    The loss against Saudi Arabia on the other hand isn't that surprising as the Saudis are playing very well under Herve Renard.
     
  21. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    The odds for Saudi Arabia not losing any points against the other 3 (China, Oman and Vietnam) are very low. Saudi Arabia are already quite flattered coming back from behind to beat Vietnam courtesy of Vietnam being reduced to 10 players and a couple of penalties. And Oman really deserved better than losing to them, having created some clear cut chances including late in the game.
     
  22. Kamtedrejt

    Kamtedrejt Member+

    Internazionale Milano
    Albania
    Mar 14, 2017
    Hamburg
    Club:
    FC Internazionale Milano
    Nat'l Team:
    Albania
    You're funny. I would make that bet too if odds were 100.
    I don't know if you're into betting but odds of 100 you get in real life for a San Marino win over Germany...
    In that case I would much more trust Japan to come back in this qualfying if I had to chose out of two those options lol.
     
  23. Iranian Monitor

    Iranian Monitor Member+

    Aug 18, 2004
    Nat'l Team:
    Iran
    Well, that's why I think 1% odds for Japan qualifying in that scenario are very low odds. To me,its akin to the betting odds you alluded to.
     
  24. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    Organization, discipline, being able to keep possession away from Uruguay.
     
  25. Paul Calixte

    Paul Calixte Moderator
    Staff Member

    Orlando City SC
    Apr 30, 2009
    Miami, FL
    Club:
    Orlando City SC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Nah, fam, Peru fast asleep :cry::mad:
     

Share This Page