Now that we seed all the way through I'm not sure there is a need to automatically seed the host in pot 1 any more. The new ranking system doesn't have the harsh penalty of playing friendlies only that the old system did. It's true its harder to climb the rankings with friendlies, but its also harder to fall as well.
In my system a team will not be rewarded with an easy group just because they are host. ( I am looking at you Russia.) Seeding every team 1-48 based on their FIFA rankings and just slotting them in mathematically would take all the conspiracy theories out of the game and people saying it was rigged.
I would still like some randomness in the draw. When we go to 48 I would suggest 6 seeded pots of 8 with teams drawn from pots 1, 4 & 5 making up 8 groups and teams from pots 2, 3 and 6 the other groups.
Sure, but that's not the only reason why hosts were seeded. Other reasons would include: - to "fix" what stadiums and dates for the games involving the host team - to simply give the host team better chances to advance. - the host team is tougher to beat at home. So, what might be normally a pot 2 team based on the rankings, becomes a pot 1 team in terms of difficulty to play against.
One solution that could make things fairer could be to automatically place the top team in Pot 2 in the host's group, thereby effectively making the Pot 2 side the "top seed" while still allowing the hosts the other usual benefits.
Yeah, that could work as long as you decide on the draw procedure at least a year in advance. Anyway, its less of an issue when there are 16 groups. Sure the Canada group will be a joke in 2026, but there are 15 other groups that will be more normal-looking. And if you're the 14th ranked team in the world I'm not sure you can complain too much that you aren't a top seed.
That works better in groups with even amounts of teams or knockouts with 64 teams like the NCAA has. With 16 groups of 3, one group would get the top team from Pot 1 (1st), the bottom team from Pot 2 (32nd), and the top team from Pot 3 (33rd), and that will be the hardest group with a mean rank of 22nd. The group with the bottom team from Pot 1 (16th), the top team from Pot 2 (17th), and the bottom team from Pot 3 (48th) will be the hardest group with a mean rank of 27th. If the groups were decided based on the rankings without a draw, FIFA wouldn't get to promote the World Cup in a draw shown around the world. If we knew the exact groups after the FIFA Rankings after qualifying finishes, fans of teams who are qualified could root for their team to lose their last qualifier to get an easier World Cup group, and it might increase the desire of criminals to match-fix qualifiers. The top 32 teams won't all qualify for a 32 team World Cup, and the top 48 won't all qualify for a 48 team World Cup. When I gave my example of teams ranked 1st through 48th, that referred to rankings that remove teams that don't qualify. 48 teams will mean teams will qualify who are outside the top 64, and maybe outside the top 80. UEFA currently has 27 of the top 48, meaning 21 are not in UEFA.
The home team doesn't need to be seeded at the top for them to be allocated a stadium. It's just as easy to allocate them a spot from whichever pot they were in. Reasons two and 3 are basically rigging the draw to give some teams an "easier" path.
hmm... I don't think so. I mean, depends how early you want to allocate the stadiums to the host team. Tickets usually go on sale a year beforehand which is well before you know what their ranking would be for the draw. Reason #2 is rigging the draw, I agree. But I think its still a reason why seeding the host nation is done (rightly or wrongly). Reason #3 is not rigging the draw. It actually helps make the groups more fair for the other 31 teams. Though maybe what would be even more fair is to only bump the host nation up by one pot (e.g. a pot 3 host nation gets bumped up to pot 2, not pot 1).
Its easy to allocate the home team a spot from whichever pot they are in. These days we draw teams and positions. Home team gets position 1A. Other teams get drawn as usual. Its how they do it now. Doesn't matter which pot they are in.
I have no problem with a host nation getting seeded. It helps the atmosphere and excitement of the tourney when the home fans get behind their team and they progress. No problem at all.
With the way things are going in the future there won't be a host nation. Just a bunch of host cities in various nations.
So as an example, @HomietheClown you'd be fine with the US ending up in Pot 2 for 2026 if a difficult run were to put us below the top 16 in the rankings (among qualifiers) ahead of the draw?
I am okay with it. But personally I think the USA will be top 10 in the FIFA rankings with all the young talent being in their prime in 2026.
Imagine in lieu of the draw we are accustomed to, the groups for Qatar 2022 would be chosen as follows: 1- 32 teams divided in 4 pots as we have now, with the hosts in pot 1 2- random draw to choose pot 2 team for group A (Qatar's group) 3- top ranked team from pot 1 gets to choose from 7 remaining teams from pot 2 for group B, then 2nd ranked team from pot 1 gets to choose 6 remaining team from pot 2 for group C, ... until all pot 1 and 2 teams have been paired 4- top ranked team from pot 2 gets to choose from any team from pot 3 for its group, then 2nd ranked team from pot 2 gets to choose from 7 remaining teams from pot 3 , ... until all pot 3 teams have been placed 5- top ranked team from pot 3 gets to choose from any team from pot 4 for its group, then 2nd ranked team from pot 3 gets to choose from 7 remaining teams from pot 4 , ... until all pot 4 teams have been placed I think this process, which can also be adapted for 48 team/16 groups w/3 teams for the subsequent World Cup, enjoys the advantages of picking the groups based on rankings while mitigating its disadvantages..
All well and good, until some nutcases like Australia turn the concept on its head by deliberately picking the hardest opponents they can
Not to miss the humor or wish to seem pedantic, but while I wasn't aware of Australia's reputation in this regard, its only fair to note that if they do qualify (very likely), they will be one of the pot 4 sides which will have to see who picks them and not vice versa
Maybe its a dig at the fact the last two draws haven't been kind to us and we have drawn teams ranked in the top two or three from each pot. Come to think of it the draws in 2010 and 2006 weren't exactly easy either.
Maybe, but come to think of it, IMO more likely the "dig" had nothing to do with football -- and instead something to do with Australia jumping eagerly into the "group" that is meant to counter China in the Pacific?
Naw, it was a dig at Australia's delegation cheering when they got Brazil's group in '06, while everyone else stared at them with something between bemusement and shock
I was so disappointed by that draw. I really wanted Brazil and England and the USA. Although, the eventual tournament was fun. We met some great supporters at Leipzig (two Iran women from Sydney who were also gonig to see Iran v Angola) and Stuttgart (a group of Croatian fans from Melbourne). J
I wasn't aware of that, but thanks for clearing it up as I had started to think you had AUKUS in mind.
After a 32 year absence we were just happy to be back on the world stage and drawing the world champions was a big deal.