211 To 1: World Cup 2022 Elimination Timeline [R]

On Tuesday, Gibraltar will be eliminated if they lose at Norway and Netherlands vs. Turkey has a winner. Faroe Islands and Moldova cannot be eliminated. I'm not going to think about San Marino being eliminated on Wednesday until after tomorrow's games.

 

San Marino will be eliminated on Wednesday if:

1. They lose hosting Poland today, they lose at Albania on Wednesday, and Poland wins hosting England on Wednesday (it requires England to win or draw hosting Andorra today, which is so likely that it's not worth making a separate scenario for England losing)

2. They lose hosting Poland today, they lose at Albania on Wednesday, Hungary wins at Albania today, and Hungary wins hosting Andorra on Wednesday

North Macedonia has an early 1-0 lead at Iceland. I previously said "Liechtenstein will be eliminated if they lose at Romania tomorrow, lose at Armenia on Wednesday, and Germany gets at least 4 points from hosting Armenia today and at Iceland on Wednesday," but Liechtenstein will also be eliminated if Germany gets 3 or fewer points in their next two games and North Macedonia wins today and hosting Romania on Wednesday. "Tomorrow" in what I quoted was written yesterday, so now it means today. Iceland could have been eliminated on Wednesday if they lose both and Germany and Armenia win both, but that's impossible because Germany hosts Aremnia today.

 

Serbia had more shots on goal than Ireland (10 to 2), but an 87th minute own goal gave host Ireland a 1-1 draw to keep them alive. It was Ireland's second consecutive 1-1 home game with an 87th minute equalizer. Azerbaijan played earlier and lost 3-0 hosting Portugal.

My previous post about Gibraltar being eliminated was wrong. They cannot finish in the top two, but they won their Nations League group, which means they can't be eliminated until two of the twelve teams that won better Nations League groups are eliminated from the top two in their group and need a playoff spot from the Nations League.

 

The nine Nations League group winners above Gibraltar not from Group E that Dr. Gamera said are France, Italy, Spain, Austria, Hungary, Slovenia, Montenegro, Albania, and Armenia. Gibraltar will be alive until at least October 11. When AFC ended Round 2 that advanced some second place teams, it was easy to assume that we were done with teams being affected by teams in other groups, but we're not done with that. Wikipedia's description is "Team cannot finish in top two of their qualifying group, may only advance to the play-offs as one of the best two Nations League group winners."

In Group B, Sweden trails Spain by 1 point with 2 games in hand, and Spain is likely to finish in the top two.

Italy is in a similar situation in Group C with a 4 point lead over Switzerland who has 2 games in hand, and Italy is likely to finish in the top two.

France leads Group D by 7 points.

In Group F, Austria is 4 points behind second place Scotland, and 3 points behind third place Israel. Assuming Austria and Scotland beat Faroe Islands, Austria will be eliminated from the top two if Scotland wins hosting Israel on October 9, and Austria loses at Denmark (who has scored 22 goals with none allowed) on October 12.

In Group G, Montenegro is 5 points behind first place Netherlands and second place Norway, and 3 points behind third place Turkey. Montenegro should win at Gibraltar on October 8, while Turkey hosts first place Norway, and Netherlands is at Latvia. On October 11, Montenegro goes to Norway, Turkey goes to Latvia, and Netherlands hosts Gibraltar. If Montenegro wins at Gibraltar and loses at Norway, Norway wins at Turkey, and Netherlands wins both, Montenegro will be eliminated from the top two on October 11.

In Group H, Slovenia trails second place Russia by 6, and trails third place Slovakia by 2. Slovenia should win at Malta on October 8, while Russia hosts Slovakia. If Russia wins or draws hosting Slovakia and wins hosting Slovenia on October 11, Slovenia will be eliminated from the top two.

Group I has Nations League group winners Albania and Hungary. Albania trails first place England by 6 and trails second place Poland by 1. Hungary is 8 points behind England and 3 points behind Poland. These teams play game six of ten tomorrow, and I'm not going to do what it takes to eliminate a team from the top two until after those games.

Group J has Armenia in second, and they can't be eliminated from the top two in October.

Somebody could post October elimination scenarios for CAF. I don't know if CONMBEOL will have eliminations in October. With one more matchday this month and three in October, it's too early to do elimination scenarios until at least after game ten on October 7. Brazil and Argentina are the top two, so even if there isn't a quick decision about the abandoned game, it won't delay eliminations.

 

Armenia had 74 percent of the possession and outshot Liechtenstein 28 to 3, but Liechtenstein got an 80th man goal for a 1-1 draw away. That keeps Liechtenstein alive. Lithuania was kept alive by Switzerland's scoreless draw at Northern Ireland. A Switzerland win would have eliminated Lithuania. Greece won 2-1 hosting Sweden. A Sweden win would have eliminated Georgia. Three of the four teams that could have been eliminated today survived until October. I do not know the order today's games ended, but it doesn't matter because there was only one elimination.

136. San Marino (neither of my elimination scenarios happened, but they are 12 points behind second place Albania, 11 points Poland, 10 points below Hungary, and those teams each play the other two, so second place will have at least 14 points)

As I said, Gibraltar could make the playoffs as a Nations League group winner, so Post 230 that says "136. Gibraltar. After the loss to Norway, they're thirteen points away from second place with only four matches remaining." is wrong.

 

With groups of four that only advance the winners, I expect plenty of eliminations in CAF. Think about how many teams can't finish first in a UEFA CL group (which has the same format in terms of teams and games in each group) after matchday four. The CAF groups have something else in common with the UEFA CL, which is that teams play one opponent in matchdays one and five, one opponent in matchdays two and six, and one opponent in matchdays three and four. In October every CAF team will play the same opponent twice. This helps with some elimination scenarios. I am not guaranteeing that these are the only way for these teams to be eliminated, and I am not guaranteeing that I didn't make any mistakes.

Group A: Algeria 4, Burkina Faso 4, Niger 3, Djibouti 0
Algeria plays Niger and Burkina Faso plays Djibouti
Niger needs 1 point to survive.
Djibouti needs 2 points to survive.

Group B: Tunisia 6, Zambia 3, Equatorial Guinea 3, Mauritania 0
Tunisia plays Mauritania and Zambia plays Equatorial Guinea
Mauritania needs 2 points to survive. If either of Zambia and Equatorial Guinea beat the other one twice, Mauritania needs 3 points to survive.
If Tunisia loses both, nobody will be eliminated, but that won't happen. If Tunisia gets 1 to 4 points, either of Zambia and Equatorial Guinea will be eliminated if they lose twice. If Tunisia wins twice, Zambia and Equatorial Guinea need 3 points to survive. If that happens, October will end with a 12-12-12-0 point distribution possible. If Tunisia wins twice and Zambia and Equatorial Guinea to do anything other than one win each, two teams will be eliminated.

Group C: Nigeria 6, Liberia 3, Cabo Verde (Cape Verde Islands) 1, Central African Republic 1
Nigeria plays Central African Republic and Liberia plays Cabo Verde.
Central African Republic needs 2 points to survive. If Liberia wins twice, Central African Republic needs 3 points to survive.
Cabo Verde needs 2 points to survive. If Nigeria gets 4 points, Cabo Verde needs 3 points to survive. If Nigeria wins both, Cabo Verde must win both to survive.
If Nigeria gets 4 points, Liberia needs 1 point to survive. If Nigeria wins both, Liberia needs 3 points to survive.
Nigeria will clinch first if they win both and either Liberia and Cabo Verde plays two draws, or Cabo Verde gets a win and a draw. If Matchday 3 has Nigeria not win and/or Liberia win, Nigeria cannot clinch first on Matchday 4.

Group D: Cote d'Ivoire 4, Cameroon 3, Malawi 3, Mozambique 1
Cameroon plays Mozambique and Cote d'Ivoire plays Malawi.
Malawi needs 1 point to survive.
Mozambique needs 1 point to survive. If Cote d'Ivoire wins twice, Mozambique needs 3 points to survive, and Cameroon needs 1 point to survive.

Group E: Mali 4, Kenya 2, Uganda 2, Rwanda 1
Mali plays Kenya and Uganda plays Rwanda.
Kenya needs 1 point to survive.
Uganda can lose twice and stay alive if Mali and Kenya play two draws or get one win each. If Rwanda beats Uganda twice, and Mali and Kenya get one win each, an 8-8-8-8 point distribution is possible. If Mali gets 4 points, Uganda needs 1 point to survive. If Mali wins twice, Uganda needs 2 points to survive.
I decided that Rwanda needs 2 points to survive, and then I decided that they need 1 point. If Mali wins twice, Rwanda needs 3 points to survive.

Group F: Libya 6, Egypt 4, Gabon 1, Angola 0
Egypt plays Libya and Gabon plays Angola.
Egypt needs 1 point to survive.
Gabon needs 1 point to survive. If Libya gets 3 points, Gabon needs 2 points to survive. If Libya gets 4 points, Gabon needs 3 points to survive. If Libya wins twice, Gabon must win twice.
Angola needs 2 points to survive. If Libya gets 3 points, Angola needs 3 points to survive. If Libya gets 4 points, Angola needs 4 points to survive. If Libya wins twice, Angola must win twice.

I'll do the rest of the groups later.

 

Group G: South Africa 4, Ghana 3, Ethiopia 3, Zimbabwe 1
Ghana plays Zimbabwe and South Africa plays Ethiopia
Ethiopia will be eliminated if they lose both. If that happens, one of Ghana and Zimbabwe will be eliminated other than the two scenarios when both of them get at least 4. That happens if Ghana and Zimbabwe win once, or if Zimbabwe gets a win and a draw.

Group H: Senegal 6, Namibia 4, Congo 1, Togo 0
Senegal plays Namibia and Congo plays Togo
Namibia will be eliminated if they lose both.
If Senegal wins twice, Congo needs 5 points to survive, and Togo needs 6 points to survive. If Senegal wins twice, and Congo and Togo play two draws, get one win each, or one of them gets a win and a draw, Senegal will advance. If Senegal gets 4 points, Congo needs 3 points to survive, and Togo needs 4 points to survive. If Senegal gets 3 points, Congo needs 2 points to survive, and Togo needs 3 points to survive. If Senegal gets 1 point meaning Namibia gets 4, Congo needs 1 point to survive, and Togo needs 2 points to survive. If Senegal and Congo get 1 point, an 8-8-8-8 point distribution is possible. If Namibia wins both, Congo needs 3 points to survive, and Togo needs 4 points to survive. If Senegal gets 6, 4, or 0 points, at least one of Congo or Togo will be eliminated.

Group I: Guinea-Bissau 4 from 2 games, Morocco 3 from 1 game, Guinea 1 from 1 game, Sudan 0 from 2 games
Guinea-Bissau plays Morocco and Guinea plays Sudan. There is not a makeup date for Guinea vs. Morocco yet. I do not know if anybody can be eliminated. If Guinea-Bissau beat Morocco twice, Morocco would trail by 7 points, but they would be alive because they would have 3 games left, not 2, unless the game is made up by then. Concacaf and CONMEBOL are playing three games in October, so maybe CAF can make up the game then. Round 3 is in March 2022, so a makeup game could be played in late January or early February, but then Morocco and Guinea would end two-and-a-half months late, and it would delay the Round 3 draw or make the draw happen with one of the teams unknown. I hope the game is made up in October, and I hope that Guineans are safe in genereal.

Group J: Tanzania 4, Benin 4, DR Congo 2, Madagascar 0
Tanzania plays Benin and DR Congo plays Madagascar.
Tanzania and Benin will be eliminated if they lose both games and DR Congo beats Madagascar twice. In that case Tanzania and Benin would have 10 and 4, DR Congo would have 8, and the team with 10 playing DR Congo would guarantee that the winner has at least 11 points.
If Tanzania or Benin wins twice, DR Congo needs 2 points to survive. If Tanzania and Benin get 4 points and 1 point to make 8 and 5, DR Congo needs 1 point to survive. If Tanzania and Benin get 4 points and 1 point and DR Congo loses twice, DR Congo could finish above Tanzania and Benin, but not above those two and Madagascar. If Tanzania and Benin win once each, and Madagascar beats DR Congo twice, an 8-8-8-8 point distribution is possible.
If Tanzania or Benin wins twice, Madagascar needs 4 points to survive. If Tanzania and Benin do anything else, Madagascar needs 2 points to survive.

 

Here are UEFA elimination scenarios for Matchday 7. I used my opinion in the terms "certain elimination," "likely elimination," and "possible elimination":

October 8:

Group E: Fourth place Belarus has 3 points, and fifth place Estonia has 1 point, but Belarus is the only team that can be eliminated because they played 5 games, and Estonia played 4. Belarus must win or draw at Estonia, or lose at Estonia and have Czech Republic vs. Wales be a draw. That is a possible elimination.

Group G: Latvia must win hosting Netherlands or have Norway draw or lose at Turkey. Since Latvia will probably lose, they need Norway to not win. That is a likely elimination, and even if Latvia survives that day, they would need help from Gibraltar later.
Gibraltar cannot finish in the top two, but can make the Playoffs from the Nations League. They will be eliminated as soon as one of France, Italy, Spain, Austria, Hungary, Slovenia, Montenegro, Albania, or Armenia cannot finish in the top two in their group.

Group H: Cyprus and Malta are 9 points behind Croatia and Russia. Cyprus and Malta need at least as many points as the lesser of Croatia and Russia. Cyprus needs to win hosting Croatia, draw hosting Croatia and have Russia draw or lose hosting Slovakia, or lose hosting Croatia and have Russia lose hosting Slovakia. That is a likely elimination.
Malta needs to win hosting Slovenia; draw hosting Slovenia and have one or both of Croatia and Russia not win; or lose to Slovenia, have Croatia lose at Cyprus, and have Russia lose hosting Slovakia. That is a possible elimination.

Group J: Liechtenstein must win hosting North Macedonia, have Armenia draw or lose at Iceland, and have Romania draw or lose at Germany. That is a likely elimination.
Iceland must win or draw hosting Armenia. That is a possible elimination.
If Armenia wins at Iceland, Liechtenstein and Iceland will be eliminated simultaneously.

October 9:

Group A: Republic of Ireland must win at Azerbaijan and have Serbia lose at Luxembourg. Republic of Ireland cannot catch first place Portugal, who has off. That is a likely elimination.

Group B: Georgia must win hosting Greece and have Sweden draw or lose hosting Kosovo. That is a likely elimination. Kosovo must win or draw at Sweden, who won 3-0 at Kosovo. That is a likely elimination.

Group C: Lithuania must win hosting Bulgaria and have Switzerland draw or lose hosting Northern Ireland. That is a likely elimination.

Group D: France has 12 points, Finland hosts Ukraine with both of them with 5 points, and Kazakhstan hosts Bosnia and Herzegovina with both of them having 3 points. Nobody can be eliminated.

Group F: Moldova must win hosting Denmark and have Scotland draw or lose hosting Israel. That is a certain elimination.

Group I: Andorra must win hosting England. At least one of Albania and Hungary will end the day with at least 13 points. Even if Poland loses hosting San Marino, Poland plays Albania and Hungary, meaning at least one of those three teams will get at least 14 points. That is a certain elimination.

To summarize:

Certain eliminations: Andorra and Moldova
Likely eliminations: Cyprus, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, and Republic of Ireland
Possible eliminations: Belarus, Iceland, and Malta
Total: 11
Azerbaijan and San Marino are the only eliminated teams.

I am not guaranteeing I did that perfectly.

I posted about CAF for the two matchdays combined. I may post scenarios for UEFA Matchday 8 and CAF Matchday 4 after the first October matchday.

 

Tanzania 0-1 Benin
DR Congo 2-0 Madagascar

On Sunday, Madagascar must win hosting DR Congo and have Benin not win hosting Tanzania. Madagascar was 21st of the 40 teams in the FIFA Rankings used for the draw, so they weren't expected to be one of the first teams eliminated.

Liberia 1-2 Cabo Verde
Liberia scored the first goal in first half stoppage time, and Cabo Verde scored the winner in second half stoppage time. Nigeria hosts Central African Republic later today. If Nigeria beats Central African Republic twice and Cabo Verde vs. Liberia is a draw, Nigeria will win the group on Matchday 4. On Sunday, Central African Republic vs. Nigeria is before Cabo Verde vs. Liberia, so if Nigeria wins today and Sunday, Cabo Verde and Liberia will know what they need to stay alive.

After losing hosting Tunisia, Zambia desperately needs to win at Equatorial Guinea today because Tunisia has two games against Mauritania. If Tunisia wins twice and both games between Zambia and Equatorial Guinea are draws, Tunisia will win the group on Matchday 4. On Sunday (Matchday 4), Mauritania vs. Tunisia is the last game, so Zambia and Equatorial Guinea will know if they need help from Mauritania. In the unlikely event that both games between Zambia and Equatorial Guinea are draws, Tunisia could win to go from every team alive to every team eliminated except for Tunisia. I wonder how rare it is for a group to have one game that went from no teams advanced/qualified or eliminated to every team advanced/qualified or eliminated.

There will not be any eliminations today. UEFA plays tomorrow.

 

Japan has to worry after a 1-0 loss at Saudi Arabia. If Australia wins against Oman in Qatar (Australia leads 1-0), Australia wins at Japan, and Saudi Arabia wins hosting China, Japan will be 9 points behind second. Japan's streak of six consecutive World Cups is tied with England and France for the seventh longest active streak. Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Korea Republic, Mexico, and Spain have longer active streaks.

Central African Republic scored in the 90+1st for a 1-0 win at Nigeria, who had 67 percent of the possession without a shot on goal. Nigeria is 34th in the FIFA Rankings, and Central African Republic is 124th. Nigeria is still in first, but the group is wide open with first and last separated by 3 points.