Yet Mexico still got a road win, defying the "CONCACAF roads gamez iz really, really hard" narrative being pushed by the defenders right now.
20 - 291, 61.2%/35.4%/3.4% The simulation has the US get 20 points 291 times out of 10000. Of those 291 runs, they finished top 3 61.2% of the time, 4th 35.4% and 5-8th 3.4%
Mexico always seems to win in Costa Rica while often losing in Honduras. We always lose at Costa Rica and usually win or draw in Honduras. Qualifying is weird.
I mean Mexico won a game 1-0 where their goal came on a penalty kick and where Costa Rica hit the post in stoppage time at the end of the game. And this is against a Costa Rica team that seems down compared to their typical standard. Mexico is grinding out hard wins but the games certainly have been easy for them and they could very easily also be on two points right now.
Reports out of Germany now suggesting that Alphonso Davies is on the way back to Munich, where he’ll have an MRI on his kneeLooks like the #CanMNT will be without their star man tomorrow https://t.co/FBF8Coe1Kv— Alexandre Gangué-Ruzic (@AlexGangueRuzic) September 7, 2021 In other Ocho news that's very relevant when it comes to Canada as they are a very different team if they don't have Davies.
In fact Canada played very well in the last Gold Cup without Davies. On the other hand, El Salvador has played with the same squad without much rotation and they may experience fatigue in those 90 minutes in Toronto.
I mean if we've learned anything from the first couple games of qualifying, its that the Gold Cup doesn't really mean much when it comes to these games. Look at the US. Canada definitely has a solid team without Davies but the guy is an absolute game changer who is one of the best in the world at his position. If he hadn't been playing for Canada against the US, I think the US would have won that game. It's a massive massive loss for Canada ahead of game they really need to win. It doesn't mean that they won't win, just that its going to be way harder.
In my discount sim, the US has dropped now to a 78% chance of direct qualification and 11% chance of being in the playoff. Honduras is clearly a prime rival, so this next game is (obviously) important.
Delta Elo table after two games, in case that is interesting to anyone Panama -- _____+46 Honduras -- ____+15 Mexico -- ______+14 El Salvador --___+11 Canada -- ______+ 0 Costa Rica --____- 10 U.S. ---_________- 33 Jamaica ---_____- 50
Do we root for a draw in El Salvador - Canada? And hold our noses and root for Mexico to beat Panama?
And a second. El Salvador seems rattled. This already feels like a game that’s going to end with a big Canada victory.
Canada didn’t put many mins on Buchanon and David against us and now they’re unleashed at home against ES. Good management.
I think El Salvador also hasn’t done much rotating at all and who knows how fatigued their players are.
Not watching the game, but I think it's a decent possibility that El Salvador will routinely get smoked on the road. There really is a big talent gap between them and pretty much everyone else in the Ocho, and if they don't have that home crowd giving them superhuman energy, that talent gap will show.
I just generally also feel like they are really going to struggle in the third game of these windows. They don’t have much depth and by game three your players have got to be exhausted.