Thought on roster management in 3 game windows: If your easiest opponent is in game 2 or game 3, it is a fairly easy call to play your best team in game 1 and plan to rotate heavily in whichever is the easiest of the games. If your easiest opponent is in game 1, it is a tough call. I think we should play our best guys in game 1 in that case.
Field condition is a big thing, and frankly more and more relevant to our team the better we get. The mess of the field in T&T played a giant role -- we have no trouble scoring goal #2 on a field that didn't kill every pass, IMO. And we have several players now who are very dependent on skilled play. We're going to see a lot of Reyna's disappointed face on a bad field. It make me wonder if it factors into your rotations. If the field is crap, you basically just have to bludgeon your opponent to death.
Yes. It might seem ridiculous, but I would actually start more of my "gritty" team out on the pitch against El Salvador away, as well as Honduras, and go with my mostly "finesse" side against Canada at home, even though those are the better players overall. That said, in Nashville we're going to lay sod over artificial turf, so it's not like that surface will be as pristine as the ones we'll play on in Ohio in October.
You undestand what our opponent is giving you then you adapt to maximize your strenghts and minimize theirs.
Fans will be allowed to enter Honduran stadiums starting this weekend, with the start of the local league "Torneo Apertura". But for now only with 20% capacity. Precios y dónde comprar boletos para los cinco partidos de la primera fecha del Apertura de Liga Nacional - Diez - Diario Deportivo
Technically this looks to be just the mandate for the Honduras league matches that are starting this week. Not saying it won't be applied to their upcoming September qualifiers, so we'll see. Wouldn't surprise me but still waiting for official statement.
After watching the Gold Cup and the Nations League, this is how I would rank the teams going into the Ocho 1. US-after beating Mexico in two finals this summer, hard not to consider us the top team going into the Ocho. 2. Mexico-still head and shoulders above everyone else and they should have no problems qualifying. 3. Canada-they looked really good in the Gold Cup and they really should qualify, just a matter of whether they are able to go on the road and get the points they need. 4. Jamaica-the biggest wildcard to me. Plenty of talent with all the dual nationals they've recruited, but the coaching isn't really there. I could see them qualifying but also finishing at the bottom of Ocho. 5. El Salvador-I'm been super impressed by the job that Hugo Perez has done and I thought they really played well in Gold Cup. The talent just isn't quite there to be any higher though. 6. Costa Rica-really feel bad putting them this low but they really do seem to be on a downswing and between generations. Though it's also possible they'll find a way to rise up in the Ocho as they always do. 7. Honduras-they seem like they are at their usual level, its just that so many other teams appear to have raised their level. 8. Panama-this was the easiest one and they definitely seem a notch below everyone else.
How many Ocho teams would beat our 2017 team? Mexico. Canada. Maybe Jamaica, maybe Honduras. Panama would be similar.
I think we have a lot of people on these boards who think that these are going to be “full crowd” road games and I would be shocked if that were the case. If I were the federations of those countries I’d be pushing to allow anyone who’s vaccinated to buy a ticket with no crowd capacity limits.
I think Canada looks quite good and Herdman has them playing with a wonderful tenacity that is serving them well but I fear they have a very shallow squad. A few key injuries will really hurt them. It's hard to tell how far almost every Central American team has fallen off (Except El Salvador who have improved). Honduras, Panama and Costa Rica are all down. I'm interested to see how far they've fallen moving into the WCQers.
Nashville does not have artificial turf, if they did we wouldn’t be playing there. Nissan Stadium has a natural grass field.
Higher level of play, more money, more eyes, and arguably a bigger club (rightly or wrongly, given how inflated the EPL's financial clout has become).
I just don't see how 1) some of the facilities could deal with VAR and 2) how you can get enough of the non-MLS and non-Liga MX referees trained quickly enough. During the Gold Cup, nearly all of the VARs were part of those two leagues. When the VARs came from different leagues, the process was haphazard at best. So while I'd prefer to see VAR, all else equal, I certainly understand if it's not going to be in play for qualifiers. Let's hope the USMNT is in a position where a bad call doesn't play a big role in its question of qualification.
The US and Canada Elo gains have made a difference in the sim. Now, the US has a 95% chance of direct qualification (if everyone plays to their Elo). Canada is at 64%. On average, Canada qualifies third with 22 points. Of course, if the Elo's tighten, it makes a difference. If you give the teams below Canada a 70-point "now it's serious" bump, (which is basically like saying El Salvador is more like Israel than Haiti and Honduras is more like Tunisia than Armenia -- so not crazy), then the chances drop to 90% for the US and to 44% for Canada. To give you an idea of the importance of one match, if the US loses to Canada on matchday 2, then the US qualification chances drop from 90% to 77%. Canada's move from 44% to 64%.
I think a much better analysis would be to look at each window rather than an individual match. For example, lets take the first window. So ELO says if the US loses to Canada their chance to qualify drops from 90 to 77%. But what does ELO predict as results for ES and Honduras? Does it predict we would W one and L one? If so then winning both of those but losing to Canada hardly changes a thing.
Ok, I modeled each of the 27 different possible US results for this window. ( I did not update team Elo's within the window, I have a day job). Before any games are played, my sim had the US at 90% chance of finishing top-three. If the US takes three L's, the chances fall to 51% Grab one point only, and the chances range from 62% -65% depending on which game was which. Get two points? Again, depending on which games, the chances are at 71%-74%. Three points leaves the US with a 77% to 81% chance (three draws is the best). Four points and the US has a 83% to 86% chance of qualifying automatically. Five points and no matter the way it happens the US has a 91% chance of advancing. There is a difference in the decimal places, but that's it. Seems like 5 points is, therefore, the "expected" result. Six points give 93% (again, only decimal differences for which game was a loss). Seven points this window and the US has a 96% chance of automatically qualifying. Win all three and finishing top 3 is modeled at 98.5%. Let's hope the boys are ready to rumble right out of the gate.
If some players play on Sunday of the first Qualifier. and they travel first thing Monday morning.it means they would only have 2 days of training before they are to leave for ES. Or, I would imagine the team could be meeting somewhere in Florida and fly to ES the day of the game which should be no more than 3.5 hours flight, thus avoiding spending a night in a noisy hotel. Florida should be humid enough to get them somewhat accustomed to Central American countries' weather.
No matter how you approach this playing on Sunday, travelling the US overnight or Monday, training 2 days, travel to ES, then playing is a very tough duty.
Here's another Elo simulation for the Octo. http://www.football-rankings.info/2021/08/concacaf-qualification-world-cup-2022.html
Happy to see something that generally matches my effort. I wonder if they will update this after each match/window.