It was a fluke only in the sense that no one expected it. Greece had a very tough road to the final but their victory more or less showed that a tactically adept underdog with sufficient basic quality and attributes, can sometimes overcome the odds, especially as long as they don't fall behind and can play within a particular tactical set up.
I think Denmark now could repeat a shock win. I would tip them as serious dark horses. With respect to Greece and Euro 2004, it surprised people to see a country with no football pedigree win a trophy like that, but at the time other countries similar to Greece in stature were enjoying more success than ever. The USA, South Korea, Senegal, Turkey, or Ireland could very well have reached the World Cup final in 2002 when you think about it. Porto won the UCL in 2004. Monaco and Deportivo almost won it that year. Leverkusen almost won it in 2002. In a way, Greece's win was the pinnacle of a trend that existed at the time where seeming less competitive countries and clubs were proving competitive enough to win against the very best.
Portugal and especially Leicester in 2016 were big upsets, maybe it's 5 years now since then but it was curious to see that in the same year.
I wouldn't count Portugal as a big upset. Fernando Santos really turned things around for them after Bento led Portugal to a lost against Albania and went into the tournament looking more than capable of producing a good showing. At Euro 2012 they finished as semi-finalist, losing only to Spain on penalties. They were certainly among the favorites. The only game they weren't favorites to win in 2016 was in the final against France. Every other game in that tournament they were equal or better than their opponent on paper. Leicester was a big shock because they were almost relegated the season before and Ranieri didn't inspire confidence at the time. But Manchester United and Arsenal lacked direction at the time. Liverpool had just hired Klopp and they were in transition. Guardiola took over at City only after Leicester won. Mourinho completely lost the dressing room at Chelsea. The teams most expected to win the EPL were not living up to their expectations. There was a window of opportunity for another team to win. Tottenham certainly looked poised to do it, but it ended up being Leicester. Their success owed a lot to how they won 8 of their last 9 games as they tried to avoid relegation the season before. They carried that form into the next season aiming to get 40 points to secure safety from relegation. They secured those 40 points by the Christmas break. That momentum they built from the prior season carried them through to become league champions.
As someone who kept track of Portugal very closely this Round of 16 exit was perfectly predictable. They were never to beat the top dogs in this tournament. Their last very good performance dates back to October 2020.
I have simulated the group of death through a super computer multiple times and the only result the computer gave back was a slow, low, undeviating fart sound.
Unfortunately for this generation they couldn't pull it off in a year where several powerhouses dissappointed. So they will probably never win something of note. At least not anytime soon.
It was annoying to keep hearing the American commentator say this was Belgium's last chance. That could be true at some point, but not now, with the World Cup next year.
The final will be: 1- Italy v. England; or 2- Spain v England; or 3- Italy v Denmark; or 4- Spain v Denmark Odds: #1: (55%) * (70%) = 38.5% #2: (45%) * (70%) = 31.5% #3: (55%) * (30%) = 16.5% #4: (45%) * (30%) = 13.5%
Based on the above, the odds I give for each of the 4 semifinalists to lift the trophy would be: 1- England* = > 38% (70%) * [(50%) + (60%)]/2 = (70%) * (55%) = 38.5% 2- Italy = > 30% (55%) * [(50%) + (60%)]/2 = (55%) * (55%) = 30.25% 3- Spain = > 22% (45%) * [(45%) + (55%)]/2 = (45%) * (50%) = 22.5% 4- Denmark = <13% (30%) * [(40%) + (45%)]/2 = (30%) * (42.5%) = 12.5% ------------------- *home field advantage and bracket having boosted England's odds
Because of the 4-0 win to England and Denmark "only" beating the Czechs by 2-1, most people are probably going to predict an easy ride for England at home vs. Denmark, but as the Denmark manager said before the match, then the game against the Czechs would tactically be nothing like vs. Russia and Wales, because of the intense heat in Baku would make that kind of attacking minded energy level physically impossible. So what we saw was not a Denmark team that had finally run a bit out of gas, but a team deliberately using all possible subs as practically possible and only doing as much and what could be done in that kind of heat. The Denmark manager has deliberately made use of 21 players so far at the Euro-20, because he trust his young reserve players and to make the energy level they show in their games possible, but having so many rather equally good players in the squad also mean that it's not a team that will fade out because it suffer some injuries and has grown tired, which is usually why smaller nations do not get all that far. England have some very good young players they rotate a lot, and they have been looking strong in defense, but still, who are the last two teams England have lost to ? and the last team they have lost to at home ? ... You will find the answers right below : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_national_football_team#Results_and_fixtures
Good luck but that game was a farce. Maguire got a ridiculous sending off. It was never a penalty and we still nearly got something with 10 men most of the game. This is a very different England team. Real togetherness. The 60,000 English fans will make a huge difference
On the other hand, this is also a very different and more high energy flexible Denmark team with Eriksen gone, no longer playing 4-4-2 but with 3 in the back and with especially the new additions Mæhle and Damsgaard.
Denmark play all their games at the Euro-20 on home turf, no matter how far they go https://footballogy.net/en/2021/07/01/denmark-in-the-euro2020-final-no-matter-what/
England are now in my book for the first time first favourites to win it all. Without disrespect to Denmark I regard the semi-final more as a formality. England's ultimate challenge will come in the final. Whoever they'll face there England are in a favourable position to win their first ever major trophy after 55 years.
And we'll be hearing about it for the next 55 years unless there's another "hand of God" moment, in which case we'll hear about that instead.