Iraq 4 Cambodia 1 Iran 3 Bahrain 0 Iraq 14 (+10) Iran 12 (+19) Bahrain 12 (+7) Hong Kong 5 (-4) Cambodia 1 (-32) Mathematically possible for any of the top 3 to win the group but Iran and Iraq have a game in hand over Bahrain and I would expect one of these two to top the group. Bahrain really need some results to go their way even to grab second but have Asian Cup group stage secured. Hong Kong have a chance of Asian Cup group stage. Cambodia go to the playoff round.
Looks like Iran are through with a win over Iraq, Iraq can move on even with a loss so long as Australia don’t lose to Jordan and South Korea beat Lebanon
Iran also could go through with a draw, they just need some results to go their way. It’s almost 50/50 on weather a draw is enough for Iran. Iraq have given trouble to Iran in recent games between the sides, my prediction is a 1-1 draw.
Iran's chances of qualifying to the next round is 100% if we beat Iraq, so that is hopefully what we will be focused on. But you are right that we have something like a 50/50 chance even if we draw Iraq. (On paper, Iran would even have an outside chance ((less than say 20%)) of advancing even with a loss). In Iraq's case, a draw would obviously clinch the group for your side, while even losing to Iran, Iraq would still have a good chance (better than 50%) to make it to the next round depending on the results in the other groups. Despite the terrible results by Iran in the first leg, Iran has one of its best teams ever and it would be a terrible shame and a huge loss if it doesn't qualify to the World Cup, never mind if it fails to even get to the final round! The latter something Iran hasn't experienced in ages since 1990.
Took another look at it, If Iraq were to lose to Iran, they’d need 2 of the following scenarios I think to advance. 1. UAE- Vietnam draw, Vietnam win or UAE win but Iraq stays ahead of Vietnam on GD (currently +4 to +3) when you take out the last place teams. 2. Jordan lose or Draw to Australia 3. Lebanon lose to S. Korea 4. Uzbekistan loss or draw to S.Arabia 5. China lose to Syria. Pretty good odds, hopefully Iraq will somehow pull off a draw but their lack of goals today was frustrating to say the least
Iran is one of the best teams in Asia, and it seems that you guys have gotten back to usual form with impressive wins over Bahrain and Cambodia. It’s why I was so shocked when Iran lost back-to-back against Bahrain and Iraq in 2019. I don’t even know if Iran has ever lost back-to-back World Cup Qualifiers in their history. But you guys look a different team with Wilmots out. Are there any other major changes from Iran since 2019? Was he the reason you guys lost those 2 matches?
Thanks for your informed comment. The coach is of course the first to get the blame when a side does as poorly as Iran did and there are many good reasons to assign a lot of blame to Wilmots. But besides the coach, other factors that can explain Iran's results would be: 1- A very tough preliminary group, with opponents which have troubled Iran in the past. Iran has a favorable H2H record against all Asian teams (including all the top teams in Asia except Saudi Arabia). That said, however, both Iraq and Bahrain have often troubled Iran in the past. In fact, we had not defeated Bahrain in Bahrain until we wacked them 3:0 this time around. Iraq, on the other hand, has been able to stop Iran in all of our more recent encounters and its been a while since we last defeated Iraq. 2- Lack of necessary focus and urgency . Until the Covid-19 issue was used as a pretext to strip Iran of its home games, our players would have not felt the urgency to beat their opponents away from home, expecting to be able to do the job more or less comfortably in Iran. However, once we were put into a "do-or-die" situation by the AFC's outrageous decision to strip Iran of its home games and have them played in Bahrain (an opponent which we had already played in Bahrain and were supposed to host in Iran instead of playing our "home game" against them in Bahrain), I think the necessary focus and urgency began to show in our players. I am hoping that Iran keeps its focus and determination, even though it is no longer in as desperate a situation as it was before the 2nd round got underway. In any case, a game against Iraq is never an easy match and we will need to be close enough to our best to come out with a win. I hope we do win because IMO Iran has one of its best teams ever on paper and just needs to get the necessary time and attention to gel them together and make them click as well as they can and sometime do (and sometimes don't).
Thanks for the detailed response. The good thing is that we both should be advancing to the next stage barring Iran losing this match. For me this is a good thing because I see us both as definitely top 12 Asian teams, while there are some teams such as Lebanon who may advance as well which based on talent I don’t feel deserve to. Regardless, hoping for a good game between us and I get really excited each time we play each other!
Iran will advance with a draw if Jordan doesn't beat Australia, UAE loses to Vietnam, or Uzbekistan loses to Saudi Arabia. It is very likely that at least one of those three will happen. If Iran loses, goal differential could break a tie between them and UAE and/or Uzbekistan. UAE starts 15 minutes after Iran, and Uzbekistan starts an hour and a half after Iran.
Iran - Iraq is going to be an exciting game. Iraq always plays with passion in this derby and I expect them to give it all. I hope we go into the field with the same mentality. Let's go Team Melli!
Well that was a huge relief. We had a horrendous first round. Iran was in a transition period with coach shift. Wilmots wasnt cutting it. I thought Iran was doomed after back to back losses against Iraq and Bahrain. Strong of them to win the remaining 4 matches (in Bahrain no less) to top the table. I think we should continue with Skocic.
Even more impressive to do it with all the remaining games in Bahrain. I feared the worst there, but now they are through which is good. The World Cup is being played in Asia so we need to best Asian teams there, and sure Iran will be well supported in Qatar next year...
Iraq 0 Iran 1 Bahrain 4 Hong Kong 0 Iran 18 (+30) Iraq 17 (+10) Bahrain 15 (+11) Hong Kong 5 (-9) Cambodia 1 (-42) Iran and Iraq through to WCQ round 3 and Asian Cup 2023 Bahrain ACQ group stage Hong Kong and Cambodia ACQ play offs
This round of qualifiers turned to a stressful one for us due to poor start. The postponement of the matches due to Cvid-19 helped to fix some of our problems. Fortunately we could survive at the end and finished top of the group. We have a lot of work to do for the next round.