Olympic Roster Predictions - Tokyo 2020

Discussion in 'USA Women: News and Analysis' started by MiLLeNNiuM, Jul 8, 2019.

  1. PortiereNuovo

    PortiereNuovo Member

    Jun 20, 2019
    We fired a manager after a poor performance at the Algarve Cup. I know that's not the reason, but still...

    Re Lloyd, the question is do we have better players for the position now. I think the answer is yes, and I think had we given more players like Bethany Balcer (not pushing her specifically, just an example of an uncapped player that could have been given appearances) more opportunities, this answer would be more clearly yes. I think we can make this argument without taking away what Carli has done for the program in earlier years.
     
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  2. NCChiFan

    NCChiFan Member

    NC Courage
    United States
    Feb 19, 2021
    Earlier years? She was voted world's best player 5 years ago... I understand the importance of younger player development, but the person best suited (according to some) to deal with the issue is no longer the coach. New coach is in charge so we will see, plus you will have players moving off the team soon, like Lloyd.
     
  3. PortiereNuovo

    PortiereNuovo Member

    Jun 20, 2019
    5 years ago is a long time. Macario was in high school. When has she approached that level of form recently?
     
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  4. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    Right. During the Obama presidency. I wonder if some of these folks know just how sports changes. Competitive athletics is the ultimate "what have you done for me lately?" work environment. And that's okay.
     
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  5. NCChiFan

    NCChiFan Member

    NC Courage
    United States
    Feb 19, 2021
    Well, in 2018 she was 2nd Team all NWSL... If that makes the timeline work out better. And really, she has been an hella experienced back up the last few years anyway. Problem most teams would kill for. Macario just got clearance to be a US legal to play individual anyway. The argument is more on Jill Ellis not bringing along younger players in the mind of some.
     
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  6. taosjohn

    taosjohn Member+

    Dec 23, 2004
    taos,nm
    ?? short memories??
    Dahlkamper
    Dunn
    Horan
    Sam Mewis
    LaVelle
    Pugh
    Sullivan
    Short
    Davidson
    Franch

    Mewis was Sermanni's discovery, yes. but she was barely started when Ellis took over, and she flourished under Ellis.
     
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  7. PortiereNuovo

    PortiereNuovo Member

    Jun 20, 2019
    I think Ellis did ok with bringing in new players given the constrains the setup placed on her. I'm not arguing that 2015 Carli Lloyd didn't deserve a spot. I'm not at all convinced by the 2021 version, and if our system was a bit different, there would be more competition for places. We are still the favorites to win, but our advantage is less than it was.
     
  8. Klingo3034

    Klingo3034 Member+

    Dallas FC
    United States
    Oct 11, 2019
    As another poster mentioned it’s hard to market new players when you have entrenched players or star players people recognize. But they aren’t getting any younger and many would be gone almost the same time and new players haven’t been introduced or recognize yet to fans and we need to get them to love them by having them play with that older players in the same screen oyherwise they could lose interest. Good thing we still have younger players like Horns, Lavelle, Mewis, Press still around to attract the fans as younger players get to show themselves otherwise people are just too used to seeing someone they know for 10 or more years.
     
  9. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    The fact that you list a 32 year-old and a 30 year-old as "younger players" is astounding.
     
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  10. hotjam2

    hotjam2 Member+

    Nov 23, 2012
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    With Lyon firing their old coach(due to the PSG/Champions League loss) is Macario being handled any differently by the new coach?
    btw....just read that the French League being reduced to ten teams, so hopefully a bit more competitiveness for Lyon
     
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  11. Klingo3034

    Klingo3034 Member+

    Dallas FC
    United States
    Oct 11, 2019
    [​IMG]
     
  12. Klingo3034

    Klingo3034 Member+

    Dallas FC
    United States
    Oct 11, 2019
    Jeez it’s one loss. Probably able to win it next time. Emma Hayes lost multiple times trying to get to CL. You don’t see her getting fired.
     
  13. WoSoFan

    WoSoFan Member

    Dec 23, 2017
    #363 WoSoFan, May 6, 2021
    Last edited: May 6, 2021
    No nothing different! She started the game and played a full 90 minutes and the "magic feet" 1 on 2 goal got her attention.

    On the French League reducing to ten team, I think it is a good idea. It may be an attempt to make the existing team more competitive from top to bottom. They can relegate with 10 teams next season. They would need to cut the number of regular league games eventually to accommodate the new Champions League format to go into effect in 2024-2025. Thirty six teams divided into 6 groups with six teams each playing 10 home and away games. Winner of each group and the best two 2nd place finishers would be eligible for a play-off format.
     
  14. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It's not a bad time to review Jill Ellis' roster selection and compare it to Tom Sermanni, who wasn't given a chance to show what he really had in mind.
    Looking back at the 2015 World Cup roster was pretty interesting to me. I'd forgotten about Boxx, Chalupny, Amy Rodriguez. I couldn't remember for sure about Christie Pearce Rampone. And it was good to be reminded of Meghan Klingenberg, who was a good selection.
     

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  15. WoSoFan

    WoSoFan Member

    Dec 23, 2017
    I think there was more to the firing then losing that one game. What may have cost him his job was related to almost half the team testing positive for Covid which resulted in them being quarantined. Did he have them do something or allowed them to do something that got them exposed? They could only push the date to play the makeup game so far without it being a detriment to the other teams that had already played and qualified for the next round. With the time they had to be in quarantine, it didn't leave them much time to prepare themselves for the game. Which really showed in their play. They looked terrible out there. Getting beat to the ball was a common occurrence in that game. Look conditioning issue cause they totally gassed. Just surprise they were not beaten by a bigger score.

    Anyway, I think Lyon will play a better in this game that will decide the league championship. PSG is a very good team so it should be a good match. Hopefully better then their last one..
     
  16. hotjam2

    hotjam2 Member+

    Nov 23, 2012
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    can't find anything yet on the web on Sermanni's 2014 Algarve Cup roster, but probably had the usual suspects like Morgan, Leroux, Pinoe & the Mewis sisters, I do believe these might of been too/or it not, given a chance in oter friendlies......Bev Yanez, Sarah Hagen, Amber Brooks, Erika Tymrak, Nikki Cross.
    I remember reading something the last four played at the time at Bayern Munich, but were told by the USSF they have to return to the NWSL if they want a chance with the USWNT. They all did return but failed to make the NT roster
     
  17. NCChiFan

    NCChiFan Member

    NC Courage
    United States
    Feb 19, 2021
    Final tune up announced: "The USWNT will play a pair of matches at Houston's BBVA Stadium, the first coming against Portugal on June 10 followed by Jamaica three days later. The final match will take place at Q2 Stadium in Austin, Texas against Nigeria on June 16." - ESPN
     
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  18. Bob Lamm

    Bob Lamm Member

    Mar 7, 2016
    New York City
    What I've just seen is:

    U.S. vs. Portugal Thurs. June 10th 8:30 p.m. EST
    U.S. vs. Jamaica Sun. June 13th 10:00 p.m. EST
    U.S. vs. Nigeria Wed. June 16th 9:00 p.m. EST

    This appears to be from a USWNT page that I got by hitting into Google. Nothing showing there about which networks are carrying these matches.
     
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  19. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Wikipedia is pretty amazing. It has links to reports (including lineups) of US matches on the Wayback Machine archives.

    What makes the Mewis sisters "usual suspects" at the time?

    I believe Sermanni did call up Sarah Hagen, Amber Brooks, and Erika Tymrak. I remember a story that Holiday (Cheney) touted her KC Teammate Tymrak when Sermanni asked her opinion. Their NWSL careers don't suggest the national team suffered from not having them become regulars on it. I love Bev (The Smile) Yanez but, again, I don't think the US missed a big opportunity by not including her in their plans.

    Fans were in the middle of the Christen Press Wars at the time. It seems Sermanni was determined to give her time to establish herself on the team. Of course the Press Wars would go on for years :)

    Lindsay Horan was also a subject of a lot of fan discussion. While she eventually became a regular player under Jill Ellis, Ellis didn't take her to the '15 World Cup.

    It isn't easy to assess the roster decisions of Sermanni and Jill Ellis, but I suspect Sermanni did a better job of it than Ellis did in her first World Cup / Olympic cycle.
     
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  20. taosjohn

    taosjohn Member+

    Dec 23, 2004
    taos,nm
    Do not forget that Ellis took over near the halfway point, and made an early assessment that the US' best chance with the late change was to try to win not by scoring goals but by preventing them; and that they did in fact win that way.

    I don't see how one can argue with her choices given that she got exactly the result she was pointing toward. I wasn't big on her hire either, but nothing succeeds like success. Arguing that she should have done better than be best is peculiar to say the least.

    With a full cycle the next time, she went for a fuller approach and the results were better at both ends.
     
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  21. lil_one

    lil_one Member+

    Nov 26, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Sure, Ellis did the best she could with the constraints on her and I think people forget how many players she actually gave first caps to, but I'm not giving her credit for Dunn. Dunn, Horan, and Ertz (Gautrat nee Brian, too, for that matter) got their first caps under Sermanni, and Dunn had a total of 8-9 caps when Sermanni only coached for 24 games. I'd make the argument that these players "barely got started when Ellis took over" because Sermanni didn't have enough time with the team.

    I think we're getting the Mewii confused. I think that the OP is talking bout Sam, and she's 28, not 30, (Kristie is 30) but regardless fair point. She's definitely not a "younger player;" she's in her playing prime. (I'd say same for Horan at 26, for that matter.)
     
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  22. lil_one

    lil_one Member+

    Nov 26, 2013
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So, just because its become a topic, and I like actual stats, I did a deep dive of USWNT coaches and how many first caps they've given:

    Screen Shot 2021-05-07 at 2.27.25 PM.png

    Some numbers are obviously skewed by various factors like Mike Ryan obviously was giving everyone 1st caps, and Gregg was basically playing youth teams as an interim coach. Dorrance's numbers skew up slightly by a large number of players getting 1st caps in 1992 when only 2 games were played and hardly any veteran players were called in. Additionally, of course, he brought in tons of youth prior to 1991.

    Also I included the E column (% of players who ultimately in total had less than 10 caps) to try to draw some line for coaches who gave significant opportunities to players (gave them multiple games to settle in) and/or really identified future talent/mainstays of the program. Obviously, at this point all of Andonovski's 1st capped players still have less than 10 caps.

    But, I do think it really shows how Sermanni upset the standard operating procedure of the USWNT but how well he did in identifying future talent. (But, I think he would have settled into more of a set lineup closer to the WWC, if he had stayed.) Plus, while its long been known here, the numbers really do show how much Sundhage played the same ol' horses over and over. And as of now (albeit early on), Andonovski is actually about par for the course. We'll see.
     
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  23. taosjohn

    taosjohn Member+

    Dec 23, 2004
    taos,nm
    The phrase in the post I responded to was "brought along," not "gave first caps to." Ellis definitely brought those players along, elevated them, she didn't drop them...

    And regarding an earlier reaction to my post, Dunn was the last cut from the 15 WWC squad, and back up as soon as the next cycle began; you really can NOT count her as evidence that Ellis was ignoring younger players and the need for turnover... not honestly you can't.

    And the issue is far more complex than it is made out to be, too complex to judge by simple comparisons of numbers capped and years service before replacement. There is considerable evidence that the program, whether through luck, skill, or chicanery has gotten ridiculously good at conditioning, educating, and supporting both physically and psychologically the players it selects; and being good at that will inevitably function in a way that retards turnover. It gives outliers a chance to outlie even more-- but not being good at it, giving up being good at it in the name of turnover does not seem to me the sort of thing to wish for. The outliers among the younger players will fight their way into consideration, and once in consideration will benefit from the same support system; the others are the ones you sort of want to fall by the wayside, or so it seems to me.

    Inevitably player support, training, and utilization operates against new player identification and promotion to a considerable extent, and that really is not a problem. "Its supposed to be hard-- the hard is what makes it great."

    The very person being used as the poster child for the alleged sin of excess caps, Carli Lloyd, is precisely the player who justifies the system-- ultra competitive, a demon for conditioning, prepared to be relegated to the bench by Ellis without resigning herself to that relegation, willing to compete for her spot for as long as she possibly can. She is near the end, yes-- but she'll be at the end when we cannot write up a best roster with her on it anymore. It takes care of itself when somebody else is obviously better, not merely newer.

    Or to put it in a nutshell, I was never a fan of Lloyd-- until she forced me to become one. Now I am reluctant to let her go without getting the last drop.

    I have been saying for decades that, politically, the US has been hanging fire on deciding how to see itself-- is it an idea, or is it a geography? To me it is an idea to be defended, not a region to be preserved.

    Likewise the USWNT-- I have followed them for over a quarter century now, and loved version after version, people who capped three hundred times and people capped three. I have no less focus on "the badge" than does Andy-- I mourn the disruption of Tarpley's career or Mullinix' just as much as I celebrate Hamm's or Wambach's or Lloyd's.

    I just see the rate of turnover of the roster as the product of natural forces that work to the advantage of the idea of a great team, just as I see immigration into the US as a great thing for the country. You want people to want it, and you want those who don't want it enough to find something else to do...and you want to support those who do want it that much to the maximum extent possible, whether 3 caps or 350...
     
  24. kolabear

    kolabear Member+

    Nov 10, 2006
    los angeles
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It is hard to argue with success. But we either pretend all is well when we have success or we critique both the good and the bad to try to get better as well as stay lucky.

    One interesting thing Sermanni and Ellis are, jointly, responsible for is the changing of the guard in central defense. Sermanni made Sauerbrunn a regular starter, in large part at the expense of Christie Pearce Rampone. I really love Pearce Rampone but I can't help having a bad feeling she was one of the "old-timers" who staged a coup which led to Sermanni's sacking.

    In addition to the phasing out of Pearce Rampone, however, there was also the phasing out of other mainstay central defenders, mainly Rachel Buehler (von Hollebeke) and Amy LePeilbet (who may have been injured at the time)

    Sermanni was starting to give a lot of playing time to Whitney Engen. Engen made the World Cup roster but, of course, by the time of the World Cup, Ellis completed the transformation in central defense by (famously) inserting Julie Johnston (Ertz). By the next cycle, JJ was in the DM spot and Dahlkemper stepped into the other central D role which is more or less where we are now. Ellis, perhaps, deserves credit for completing the transition, but Sermanni was the one who began the Sauerbrunn Era. And Sermanni was the one who paid the price for it.
     
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  25. AndyMead

    AndyMead Homo Sapien

    Nov 2, 1999
    Seat 12A
    Club:
    Sporting Kansas City
    I haven't run the number in a decade, but I'm sure it hasn't improved. But when you look at minutes played, the top WNT, especially compared to the MNT eat virtually all the minutes every year with the tail being very small and short. A lot of the caps for the low capped players historically have tended to be garbage time late game substitutions and not starts or meaningful minutes.

    Just looking at a list of "most capped" players it becomes obvious just how many minutes we give to established players.

    I've always joked that If you get to 20 caps with the WNT, you get a coupon good for another 80 caps.
     
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