The big match. I'm a Honduran-American, so I can live with the result, whatever it is. What does everyone think?
That you should keep your joy to yourself, in one of the outcomes? I think you should be bummed they got drawn into the same semi, frankly, even if beating Mexico is a heavy lift for any team in this tournament.
Watched the Honduras Canada game last night. Honestly they looked no better if not worse than Costa Rica. Barring a complete lapse of concentration or a total meltdown I don’t see us losing. They only tied Canada who’s missing all of their Toronto FC players and we would wreck Canada. With our most in form players out there we’ll qualify
I anticipate a similar game to that against Costa Rica. A close 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 type of affair. It can go either way. No, Honduras actually haven't looked all that great in this tournament. Neither have we, though. I make us a slight favorite............................
They definitely looked worse than Costa Rica. I also think we didn’t play as well against Costa Rica as we did the last two games. The draw put arguably the 3 best teams in one division. Dominating possession, stopping their counter, and getting the first goal by doing the first two right is what will get us a win.
You are putting too much emphasis on stats and the situational impact on that. There were 4-5 real goal scoring chances in that game, we had 3 of them.
There were at least 2 breakaways that Ochoa stopped and his extention dive save was a world class. What were our chances?
Rewatched it. You are probably right, 3:2 on clear chances, but plenty of half chances on Costa Rica side, and we were hanging for dear life in the second half.
You got me, turkey. When everyone says one thing, and you repeatedly claim another, it might be you that’s wrong, not everyone else. You posted a retraction of sorts right before my comment, it’s a shame I didn’t read it before posting my reply to your original comment, but your previous pearl of wisdom was as I described, whereas I think most of my posts aren’t the sh*tposts as you allege. I suppose it’s all for naught if we lose Sunday. We’d better not, Honduras doesn’t look very strong.
Soccer is a funny sport. We did get a bit lucky against CR, even if they couldn’t turn their play into solid chances. We can’t afford to rely on luck against Honduras. Just an observation; I think our CBs have done an outstanding job against some very good forwards (Ugalde, Macias) but against big, fast forwards they have sometimes looked a little shaky. Against DR Kessler was beat for pace and while the DR player had neither the skill or composure to make us pay, the Honduran forwards have both. It will be vital not to let Vuelto or Martinez get behind the defense. Both players were rested against Canada. Costa Rica was happy to take the game over when our midfield proved incapable of doing so, but Honduras will sit back and try to punish mistakes in the counter. The longer the game goes without scoring the happier the Honduran team will be. This is likely to be a peak CONCACAF match, with time wasting tactics from the opening whistle. I would like to see the USA be aggressive early, we have only one first half goal and have not opened games well. I believe that we will win, but I have no doubts it will be a tough game. A nightmare scenario would be to surrender a goal in the first half. Honduras will be happy to let the game go to penalties, but as the better team talent wise it would be a missed chance for the USA if that were to happen.
Here is a line-up Jason Kreis should consider starting in tomorrow's semifinal match against Honduras: -------------------------------Ochoa--------------------------- Herrera------------Glad-----------------Kessler---------Vines --------------------------------Yueill------------------------------- ---------------Dotson---------------------------Perea----------- Lewis--------------------------------------------------------Mihailovic ----------------------------------Ferreira-------------------------------- 1. Herrera or Araujo? By a narrow margin, I would start Aaron Herrera over Julian Araujo at right back. During this Olympic qualifying tournament, Araujo has been shakier defensively than Herrera. For instance, in the US’s game against Mexico, Araujo was beaten one-on-one by Uriel Antuna and then fell down. If it had not been for an outstanding tackle by Mauricio Pineda, Antuna likely would have had a clear shot on goal. In contrast, I can’t remember Herrera having made any important defensive mistakes this tournament. Araujo might have a higher upside as a pro soccer player than Herrera. Araujo is only 19, while Herrera is 23. And Araujo looks to be more skillful. However, it’s important for the US to win the semifinal match. And based on what I’ve seen this tournament, starting Herrera gives us a better chance of doing so. In soccer, if an outside back makes an important defensive mistake, the player’s team can end up losing 1-0. 2. Which two center-backs? This tournament, Justen Glad has been solid. He’s made no crucial defensive mistakes, and, against Costa Rica, he had some very good blocks in the second half. In addition, of the three center-backs on this roster, Glad is by far the most experienced. Finally, he did not play against Mexico on Wednesday night, so he will be fully fresh for tomorrow's match against Honduras. So, tomorrow, I would start Glad as one of the center-backs. Against Costa Rica, Mauricio Pineda struggled, including having an important turnover in his own end that almost led to a Costa Rica goal. But, against Mexico, he rebounded to have a good match. However, Henry Kessler’s overall level of play this tournament has been clearly higher than Pineda’s. For instance, with the exception of getting beaten for speed on one play against the Dominica Republic (DR), Kessler has been good defensively. Also, his passing and dribbling out of the back have been good and better than Pineda’s. In addition, last season, I saw nearly every game Kessler played for the New England Revolution. When I first saw him, I said: "This guy doesn’t really look like a professional soccer player. And he looks slow and a little clumsy." But he really grew on me. And now I’m very high on him. First, although he doesn't have great speed, I wouldn’t say he’s slow. He has decent to solid speed for a professional center-back. Moreover, he has a very good positional sense. He really reads the game well. He’s also a good passer, and, when he is playing the ball out of the back, he’s good at avoiding and dribbling around opposing forwards who pressure him. In addition, he’s good in the air and good at defensive and attacking set-pieces. So, against Honduras, I would start Kessler as the center-back next to Glad. In addition, against Honduras, I would start Kessler as the left center-back and Glad as the right center-back. Kessler is left-footed, whereas Glad is right-footed. Also, Kessler passed and dribbled the ball better and more proactively against Mexico, a match in which he played left center-back, than he did against the Dominican Republic, a match in which he played right center-back. 3. Central Midfield For this game, whom Kreis should start at the three central midfield positions is a difficult issue. First, it would be reasonable for Kreis to start either Andres Perea or Jackson Yueill as the number 6 and the other one as one of the number 8s. But should Kreis start Perea as the 6 or Yueill? Yueill is the most experienced number 6 on the roster, and, of all the potential 6s on the roster, he has made the fewest crucial turnovers this tournament. For instance, Perea turned the ball over a bit too much against Mexico. However, if Kreis were to start Yueill at the number six, then he would have start Perea or, if Hassani Dotson is not healthy enough to start, Johnny Cardoso or Djordje Mihailovic as one of the number 8s. If Kreis starts Cardoso as one of the 8s, I worry about Cardoso’s positional sense and ability to keep possession of the ball. Mihailovic likely would be a good number 8 against Honduras. But if Mihalovic starts as an 8, then Sebastian Saucedo or Benji Michel would have to start as one of the wingers (opposite Jonathan Lewis), and neither player has stood out this tournament. For instance, against Mexico, Saucedo was not dangerous and turned the ball over too much. Another option is to start Perea as one of the number 8s, with Mihailovic and Jonathan Lewis as the two wingers. The night before last, during the telecast of Honduras’ match against Canada, both Stuart Holden and Alexi Lalas said that they favored Kreis’ starting Yueill at the 6 and Perea as one of the number 8s. And it should be noted that, at the club level, Perea has played a decent amount as a central midfielder in a 4-4-2 and as an attacking center-mid in a 4-2-3-1. For example, here are links to starting line-ups for two of the games in which Perea started for Orlando City as a central midfielder in a 4-4-2: https://matchcenter.mlssoccer.com/matchcenter/2020-11-08-orlando-city-sc-vs-nashville-sc/lineup https://matchcenter.mlssoccer.com/matchcenter/2020-11-04-orlando-city-sc-vs-columbus-crew-sc/lineup And here is a link to the starting line-up for a game in which Perea started for Orlando as an attacking center-mid in a 4-2-3-1: https://matchcenter.mlssoccer.com/m...-new-york-red-bulls-vs-orlando-city-sc/lineup So, if Kreis were to start Perea as a number 8 against Honduras tomorrow, he would be starting him at a position somewhat similar to ones that he has played some at the club level. Perea wouldn’t necessarily be out of his comfort zone. Interestingly, for Orlando City, Perea has even started as a winger. Here: https://matchcenter.mlssoccer.com/matchcenter/2020-11-01-montreal-impact-vs-orlando-city-sc/lineup In fact, he has even started as a forward alongside Daryl Dike. Here: https://matchcenter.mlssoccer.com/matchcenter/2020-08-29-atlanta-united-fc-vs-orlando-city-sc/lineup Moreover, against Honduras, an advantage of starting Perea as a number 8 is that Kreis could then start Yueill as the number 6. And Yueill is the number 6 on this roster who inspires the most confidence. First, of all the candidates to start at the position, Yueill is the one that has the most international experience playing the position. For instance, he has 9 caps with the senior national team, and, in all of those appearances, I believe he played as a 6. In addition, in this tournament, of all the candidates to start as the 6 against Honduras, Yueill has made the fewest number of defensive mistakes, been the best distributor of the ball and been the least prone to making important turnovers, all of which are important qualities for a 6. Although Yueill—while playing as the 6—was marked out of the game against Costa Rica, perhaps he can learn from that experience. One option would be for him to drag his marker to the outside and give the two center-backs open space to move into and to pass the ball through. However, against the DR, Yueill played well as an 8 (where he played for 80 minutes), including scoring the important first goal of the match. And if Perea were to start as an 8 against Honduras, how would he do? This tournament, I believe that Perea has not played at all as an 8. And I don’t know if, in his professional career, he has ever played as an 8 in a 4-1-4-1/modern 4-3-3. However, I probably would start Perea as one of the 8s and Yueill as the 6. I have more confidence in Yueill not making important errors while playing as a 6 than I do in Perea (while playing as a 6). Against Mexico, Perea had some untimely turnovers. And if a player playing as a 6 makes an error, it can lead to the opponent’s scoring. In contrast, if a player playing as an 8 makes an error, it’s less likely to be costly. However, if, against Honduras, Kreis were to start Yueill as the 6 and Perea as an 8 and Perea were to struggle and the US were to need more offensive thrust, Kreis could switch Perea and Yueill, moving Yueill up to an 8 and Perea back to the 6. 4. If Dotson is injured Is Hassani Dotson healthy enough to start and play well against Honduras? Against Mexico, he twisted his ankle badly and had to leave the game. If Dotson is too injured to start, Kreis could (1) start Johnny Cardoso and Perea as the 8s with Yeuill as the 6, (2) start Perea as the 6 with Yeuill and Mihailovic as the 8s and Sebastian Saucedo at left wing or (3) start Yueill as the 6 with Perea and Mihailovic as the 8s and Saucedo at left wing. I think I would do option 3. Mihailovic is a skillful, heady player who played well as an 8 in the match against Costa Rica. Having him in the center of midfield gives the US a better chance of keeping possession and creating chances than having Cardoso as one of the 8s. Moreover, although Saucedo—who would start on the wing if Mihailovic starts as an 8--hasn’t stood out this tournament, he has been decent overall. In fact, he was solid against Costa Rica and the DR, a match in which he had the crucial assist on the first goal. One thing that’s important: If Saucedo starts, it’s important that he start at left wing, with Jonathan Lewis at right wing. First, against the DR, a match at which Saucedo played left wing, Saucedo played much better than he did against Mexico, a match at which he played mostly right wing. Also, Saucedo isn’t particularly fast, so, when playing right wing, it’s hard for him to get to the endline to cross the ball. But when he’s playing left wing, he’s good at cutting in on his right foot and going to goal. 5. If Mihailovic plays on the wing Against Mexico, when Mihailovic played left wing, there were a couple of times when he played too narrowly. For instance, he didn’t give Aaron Herrera good enough passing angles because he was sucked so far inside. If Mihailovic plays on the wing against Honduras, it’s important for him to be mindful of this. If he plays as a winger, there certainly will be times for him to cut inside to goal, especially when he has the ball at his feet, the way he did against the DR. But when he does not have the ball, it’s often important for him to be wide. It tends to give his teammates with the ball better passing options. The player with the ball will have players in different areas to pass to. It also tends to open up space for teammates.
Hope everyone has their pregame rituals planned out. Gotta pull out all the stops to actually qualify this time
This is a really good analysis, and I agree with your lineup. I might swap Yueill and Perea, but that's a really tough call. I really hope Dotson is healthy enough to start, because as crazy as it is he's really crucial to our midfield. With a win tonight the future will be looking really good for U.S. soccer.
I'd play this lineup. Any of the three GK's Araujo-Glad-Kessler-Vines Yueill-Perea Mihailovic Soto-Ferreira-Lewis The only spot I'm unsure about is that RW spot. There's no good option there. Saucedo isn't good enough, Michel has had a terrible tournament. Who should we play there? Do we play an extra CM that can bring energy and athleticism in that spot (Tessmann/Dotson)? Do we play an extra RB who can send in some crosses (Herrera)? I think I'd rather play a second #9, and overload the center creating an imbalance in the formation. There's no good solution, but for a team that struggles offensively, I want another goal-scorer in the lineup.
You got the lineup and everything else spot on. Excellent analysis I think the lineup were rolling out is our best group. It’s strictly business today. I expect them to get it done
Herrera over Araujo, Kessler over Pineda, Mihailovic (probably) at LW, 4-3-3 with the three #8’s. Made for this moment 💪Looking to punch a 🎟 to #Tokyo2020, your U-23 USMNT starting XI! pic.twitter.com/VeRP0ya2AR— U.S. Soccer YNT (@USYNT) March 28, 2021
I’m doing my pre-game toast with a Heaven Hill bottled-in-bond and a A. Fuente Grande Reserva. Just for luck I’ll add a Larceny Barrel Proof because this is serious. What are the rest of you doing?