Olympic Roster Predictions - Tokyo 2020

Is it not a smaller roster than for WC?

 

What it looks like right now (18 players is the max you can have, so 2 would have to be cut):

1. Alex Morgan
2. Megan Rapinoe
3. Tobin Heath
4. Carli Lloyd
5. Mallory Pugh
6. Christen Press
7. Lindsey Horan
8. Rose Lavelle
9. Julie Ertz
10. Morgan Brian
11. Samantha Mewis
12. Crystal Dunn
13. Abby Dahlkemper
14. Becky Sauerbrunn
15. Tierna Davidson
16. Kelley O'Hara
17. Emily Sonnett
18. Ali Krieger
19. Alyssa Naeher
20. Ashlyn Harris

 

I wish the veterans(32+) all left and give young players chances. We can't rely on them in 2023.

 

I expect some new faces if only because I expect we'll get at least a couple retirements, and if you look at things statistically it's almost certain that one of these 23 will be injured next summer.

We are a very, old squad. 12 of the 23 will be over 31 during the Olympics.

 

After Tokyo, we should see 2004 levels of international retirements. The only current players that'll be under 30 during the 2023 World Cup are Davidson (24), Pugh (25), Lavelle (28), Sonnett (29), Horan (29), and possibly Dunn (30th birthday during the tournament).

Fun fact. At 24, Rose Lavelle is not really a "young player". For midfielders/forwards the physical peak is generally 24-28. She's in her peak. Davidson and Pugh were the only "young" players on this team.

 

I personally wouldn't be opposed to the Olympics for women being how the men's Olympic tournament is:

Since 1992 male competitors must be under 23 years old, and since 1996, players under 23 years old, with three over-23 year old players, are allowed per squad.

 

They've since relaxed the men's rule, but in 1996 any player that had played in the World Cup was not considered "U-23". The U.S. used an exemption for Claudio Reyna, who had been on the 1994 squad.

But the WNT is so old that only two players from France 2019 will be U-23s next year: Davidson and Pugh. To be honest, I'd love to see that change. Let most of the WNT play with their clubs next summer, and maybe give some of those 18-23 year-olds a chance to show they deserve a chance for the 2023 cycle.

 

Catarina has been pretty vocal about playing for the USWNT and has participated in all US youth level camps.
Why do you think it's a long shot for her to get U.S. citizenship? She's turned down numerous call ups from the
Brazilian National senior team.

I'd love to see a few younger players involved as well, especially Catarina.
I really like Howell and excited to see how Smith comes back from injury.

 

Im pretty sure (its been discussed in other threads) that Macario is not eligible to play for the US until 2022

 

Hmmm, does that make sense tho?

She's never played for any other National team - there won't be a waiting period once she's a citizen.

 

It's a little more complicated than that. When a player naturalizes to a new citizenship, FIFA rules say you have to wait "5 years after 18," remaining resident in that country during those 5 years. However, FIFA does allow waivers and has granted a number of them, including Gedion Zelalem. As long as the country isn't seeking to play games with the system and the move was for "non-football related reasons," she should be able to get it.

ETA: Getting a passport has become a much more difficult process and can take up to a year to get the actual document.

 

She isn’t certain to get citizenship because, well, Trump. He has made South American immigration more difficult, haven’t you heard?
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opini...ca-s-ability-integrate-foreigners-ncna1006716


She is a long shot before 2022 because fifa rules say she has to be 21 to declare a new citizenship and has to be a permanent resident for 2 years as a citizen. That means 2022 at the earliest.. Even if she gets her citizenship before that, she wont meet FIFA citizenship residency rule on naturalized citizenship unless she can convince fifa to change rules by counting her residence as a minor.

At least thats how i read it.

https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/fif...s-players-who-have/1hndiedxd2d4h1jfved27pg4go

And

http://www.espn.com/espnw/sports/ar...-soccer-player-year-catarina-macario-stanford

 

I'm terrible at these predictions, but I think there will be some changeover, especially if Ellis decides to move on. I saw in one report that her contract ends at the end of this month, but she may decide to stay through the Olympics. With a bit of change in mind:

Forwards: Alex Morgan, Megan Rapinoe, Tobin Heath, Mallory Pugh, Christen Press
Midfield: Lindsey Horan, Rose Lavelle, Julie Ertz, Samantha Mewis, Andi Sullivan (if she stays in form and Brian continues with her injury struggles)
Defense: Crystal Dunn, Abby Dahlkemper, Becky Sauerbrunn, Tierna Davidson, Kelley O'Hara, Casey Short
Goalkeepers: Alyssa Naeher, Ashlyn Harris

I added Sullivan and Short, because I think if both continue their current form that they're showing in the NWSL, they have a chance to make the Olympics roster over players like Brian, Long, and Sonnett. I think there's a good chance Lloyd retires before the Olympics, but if not, you can add her. Versatility is crucial for the smaller roster in the Olympics, so I also dropped some players who are not as versatile.

I think there is a chance for some other younger/newer players will at least get called in over the next few months, and others will get another chance (I'm thinking players like Williams, Fox, Mace, Colaprico here). I also think someone during the "victory tour" friendlies will get a first cap, and I'd guess it'd be a youth player (someone like Pinto or a U20 forward?) not a NWSL player unless someone just goes crazy during the rest of the season. Depending on injuries to other players, one or two of those call-ups could make the roster.

I do think someone of those I named above will probably be injured, but its hard to predict that. But I do hope that Ellis has learned her lesson from the 2016 Olympics of only bringing healthy players.

I also think we'll see more of the youth call-ups and retirements post-Olympics. (possibly Sauerbrunn and Rapinoe; Lloyd if she doesn't retire this year. I could also see Heath and O'Hara retiring before the next WWC.)

 

No, I don't think that's quite right.

I'm not sure where you got the "minimum age of 21" from & the "2 years" is referring to those who have a citizenship from birth (for example, an Iowa-born & raised player can only represent Puerto Rico if she has lived there for 2 years or had parents/grandparents born there or was born in Puerto Rico).

The article that applies here is in reference to gaining a *new* citizenship:

7 Acquisition of a new nationality

Any player who refers to art. 5 par. 1 to assume a new nationality and who has not played international football in accordance with art. 5 par. 2 shall be eligible to play for the new representative team only if he fulfills one of the following conditions:
(a) He was born on the territory of the relevant association;
(b) His biological mother or biological father was born on the territory of the relevant association;
(c) His grandmother or grandfather was born on the territory of the relevant association;
(d) He has lived continuously for at least five years after reaching the age of 18 on the territory of the relevant association.

(d) is the main clause that applies here. Under the rules, she has to live in the US until at least age 23 (assuming she doesn't leave and return later). FIFA has granted a lot of waivers on this (Gedion Zelalem got a waiver like this to play long before he was 23 & had actually been living in the UK for a couple of years). Because it appears she didn't move for "football reasons," she can probably get a waiver.

 

I'm bumping this thread; we're in an Olympic year now. Of course, we don't know if they'll actually take place or got cancelled. Still, we can speculate! Some things have changed since we started making predictions back in 2019. With several camps now under Vlatko, we're starting to see a bit more of what he's looking for.

So, who'd like to update their predictions? Or make a new one. (As a reminder, Olympic rosters are 18 players, 2 of whom must be goalkeepers. A coach usually can also name up to 4 alternates.)

For your benefit, the current player pool (based on who's been called into camps under Andonovski, including the October camp):

Goalkeepers: Aubrey Bledsoe, Jane Campbell, Adrianna Franch, Ashlyn Harris, Alyssa Naeher

Defenders: Alana Cook, Abby Dahlkemper, Tierna Davidson, Imani Dorsey, Crystal Dunn, Emily Fox, Naomi Girma, Sarah Gorden, Ali Krieger, Kelley O’Hara, Margaret Purce, Becky Sauerbrunn, Casey Short, Emily Sonnett

Midfielders: Jordan DiBiasi, Julie Ertz, Shea Groom, Lindsey Horan, Morgan Gautrat, Jaelin Howell, Rose Lavelle, Allie Long, Catarina Macario, Kristie Mewis, Sam Mewis, Ashley Sanchez, Andi Sullivan

Forwards: Bethany Balcer, Mia Fishel, Ashley Hatch, Tobin Heath, Carli Lloyd, Jessica McDonald, Alex Morgan, Christen Press, Mallory Pugh, Megan Rapinoe, Sophia Smith, Kealia Watt, Lynn Williams

 

Locks (11)
FW: Press, Heath
MF: S. Mewis, Lavelle, Ertz, Horan
DF: Dunn, Sauerbrunn, Dahlkemper, O'Hara
GK: Naeher
Likely (3)
FW: Morgan, Lloyd (not sure I agree, but she's obviously going)
MF/FW: Macario
DF: Davidson

This leaves 3 outfield spots and a backup GK. I would take Franch if healthy, though I expect the propensity for vets will lead to Harris. I don't really have any insight into the 6th defender--I would prefer a real outside back (Short) but I think this could go a lot of ways. I think Rapinoe is going. I don't think this is the right call but maybe she will convincingly go 90 in She Believes. Mewis is the form player, and probably gets the nod, though I could see a different choice for a pacey player (probably Williams though there are other options).
Bubble in (4)
GK: Harris
DF: ???
MF: Rapinoe, K. Mewis



Other thoughts: versatility and the ability to go 90 are really important on the oly roster IF the US gets a challenging draw given the 2 day turnaround.

 

Wow, the US could send two very good teams.

 

I think Williams is very likely. This is one of the things that has changed since we started this thread. Andonovski is high on her, and she has made almost every roster since he became coach (if not every roster?). She also routinely starts, but it's good to note that her time on the field has been helped by the fact that other veteran forwards have been out. The question is whose spot does she take.

In any case, I do want to change my prediction above, but I'm still thinking through it. I think we have a deeper team than we had in 2019, which is saying something. Just think of our forward mix of the more probable to make the cut:
Tobin Heath, Carli Lloyd, Alex Morgan, Christen Press, Mallory Pugh, Megan Rapinoe, Lynn Williams (and possibly Macario if she plays up top and not in the midfield; some might want to add Smith to give more youth mix). Even without Macario or Smith, you probably have to cut 2 from the list (if keeping a 4-3-3).

And if you move to the midfield mix: Julie Ertz, Lindsey Horan, Rose Lavelle, Catarina Macario, Kristie Mewis, Sam Mewis, Andi Sullivan (some might also include Gautrat in the mix)....still need to cut 2 here probably.

 

After watching the the game again, especially the 2nd half, I would be very surprised if Macario wasn't on the roster for the Olympics. In fact, I will be surprised if she isn't in the starting line-up for the Friday game. Most likely in place of Lloyd. Doubt if Lloyd has much left in the gas tank with the way she was flopping around on the field in the 2nd half. Macario's passing effectiveness had to be in the 95% range. She sent a perfectly placed ball to Lloyd for the Kristie Mewes goal. Being her first game, I thought she had great composure throughout the game.

 

It looks like we're going to repeat the mistakes of the past and take a roster that is too old. Whether we take players who aren't match fit or not is too early to tell.

The Olympics is a grind. Small rosters with a bunch of games every 3 days. Young and fit is the way to win a tournament like this.

If the Olympics were one single game we could take pretty much any collection of players and be favored. The question is, will we have enough left in the tank at the end?

 

Andy: I think you are correct, though if the US has a couple of easy games we might get away with it on talent.

We can take 8 MF/FW assuming 6 defenders and 2 keepers. I supposed we could gamble with 5 df, assuming Ertz can drop in, but I don't think that's likely. I can certainly see Williams instead of Kristie Mewis, though suspension or injury could leave that MF in trouble (I guess Lloyd could provide cover in the MF, since Lloyd holding worked out so well in the past!) From what I posted (prediction) I would like to drop Rapinoe and either Lloyd or Morgan so that some combination of Smith, Sullivan, Pugh, or one of the other younger players can go. I'm more ok taking Lloyd than Pinoe from a roster management perspective because I think she will be able to perform for 90, but I still think we need a younger team.

Vlatko is in a tough position though--if he drops Rapinoe or Lloyd or Morgan and doesn't win gold he will destroyed for it. If he picks the vets and loses he can say "well these are the same players who won the WWC in 19--COVID etc" This is why managers often persist with experience when there are better other options.

 

Not one of the players in the current WNT top 25 or 30 is past their "sell by date" but the elders must work harder to keep their conditioning up to par. As long as none of the players slip I believe we would do quite well in the Olympics with most of the same roster we took to the last WWC, with the possible exception of Morgan. She is only questionable because she has not seemed to be able to reach form after her baby. That is quite understandable.

I am not saying we should not make changes but what I believe is that players should have to prove they are better before they should get included in the full national side.

The coach has called in and looked at a rather large number of payers and he only really has one more match before he must mostly finalize the roster for the Olympics as the SBC and a few other matches will need to be about team building and working on nuances on the field. When you are working on that you cannot be also trying to find and integrate new players.

It should always be in consideration the for the Olympics you only have 15 field positions as, I believe, they require each team to carry 3 goalkeepers.

Since I strongly believe you need a minimum of 5 defenders that almost assures Dunn of a spot as she can move forward as needed and it may mean dropping some one dimensional players out of the forward crew.

I also think the team needs to be midfield heavy as, in a pinch, many/most mids can move either forward or back without much loss of effectiveness. So that means carrying 6 mids at a minimum also making Ertz a clear pick. that only leaves 4 spots for forwards.

The coach has a real problem in selection it that the US has too many talented players that are almost equal but have different strengths. That is a "problem" most coaches would love to have.

I have been watching how this coach has brought in players to see if anyone is "better" than existing players and, so far, not one of the new players has shown to be clearly better but also few, if any, have played their way out of contention.

All in all I do not think there could be a "bad" team chosen out of the current pool but we only see the players in limited matches but the coach gets to see them in practice as well. I have good confidence that we will see a good team from this group and I am quite sure that a lot of people's favorites will be left at home. I think the coach will pick a real good team but I also think he cannot do real wrong.

 

You could say the same thing about our 2003 Women's World Cup roster.

Leaving out the injured players (still an issue, Rapinoe in Rio?), the problem in 2003 was never that any given player was too old.

The problem is that too many players were old.

Combined with the fact that we artificially limited our 20 player roster by taking 3 injured players, then had a fourth break her foot in the opener, it was just too much to ask that group of players to play that many minutes at that level in that compressed time frame.

We beat Sweden in the opener, but got crushed by Germany in the semis. Frankly, we probably would've beaten Germany in the opener, but gotten swept aside by Sweden in the Semis had the draw gone that direction.

We were beat up, worn out. This is a mistake the USWNT makes by design.

We have the best players, we have the deepest potential talent pool. We knew about Kristi Mewis nearly a decade ago and she got shunted aside with most of the Sermanni finds.

At this point it'll never change until the CBA does away with classes of players. Until wearing the jersey becomes a privilege and not a right, this is the system we have.

The USWNT will get steadily older until we crap out of a tournament, then we'll bring in a bunch of youngsters and win the next one. Lather, Rinse, Repeat.

If USWNT spots were truly competitive, nobody would talking about the gap closing.

So, yeah, bring your 38 year-old part-time forward. Having a now one dimensional player sitting on a very short Olympic-sized roster couldn't possibly go wrong. Could it?