2020 CL/2021 CCL qualifiers [R]

And Forge have gone back-to-back! 2-0 over Halifax is enough for them to claim the CanPL title, meet Toronto FC in the Voyageurs' Cup Final and qualify for next year's Concacaf League.

 

The next berth on our radar is the MLS Supporters' Shield which **checks notes, checks Twitter** is still up for grabs.

Well, let's be more precise: the berth is for the best US-based team in the regular season. The Philadelphia Union and the Columbus Crew are the current front-runners, and they'll be playing each other in a week's time (November 1st). The season itself ends on November 8, so we'll find out the next US participant in the CCL shortly.

 

Update: everything went Philadelphia's way tonight, and now the Union are on 44 points. As far as CCL qualification is concerned: Toronto FC aren't taken into consideration, Sporting KC max out at 42 points (strangely, they have only two games left on their schedule), and the other challengers - Seattle, Columbus, Portland and Orlando - all max out at 44. So the Union, playing on national TV (ABC) Sunday afternoon at 3:30 p.m., just need to escape Columbus with a point and they'll finally punch their continental ticket for the first time ever.

 

...scratch that:

Qualification for the @Audi #MLSCupPlayoffs will be determined by points per game. https://t.co/WlkMcyiTFZ

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 29, 2020

So I have no idea if we'll be able to determine if Philly have wrapped up a CCL berth before the MLS regular season finishes up for everyone.

EDIT: I calmed down and calculated the max-out PPG for the contenders (someone please check my math if I'm off).

• Sporting KC max out at 42 points, over 22 games = 1.91 PPG
• Columbus, Portland and Orlando all max out at 44 points, over 23 games = 1.91 PPG
• Seattle max out at 44 points, over 22 games = 2.00 PPG

So the Union, who have two games left on their schedule, need a win at Columbus on Sunday to guarantee that they can't finish with lower than 2.04 PPG, sealing the CCL berth as the best US-based team in the regular season.

Note: adding an extra digit to the PPG, Sporting KC's max-out is 1.909 to 1.913 for Columbus and co., so it's not exactly equal.

 

So I have some good news and bad news, from Philadelphia's perspective:

The bad news is that they lost on Sunday, and still have to wait...

...but the good news is that their path to the CCL got simplified with Seattle also flubbing their lines on the road, losing at Colorado to fall out of contention.

According to the league's explanation, the only U.S. teams that can catch the Union are Columbus and Portland...and their max out (1.91 PPG) is roughly equal to Philly's worst outcome (1.91 PPG). So the Union could be Champions League-bound as soon as Wednesday, on the off chance that neither the Crew or the Timbers win their midweek home games.

EDIT: Silly me, I forgot that Portland already have a CCL berth in hand...so the only real threat here is Columbus.

 

Columbus lost at Orlando this evening, so that's it! With only TFC and Portland left alongside them in the Supporters' Shield race (unfortunately, Orlando are behind on the Wins tiebreaker, so we're out of contention), the Philadelphia Union have finally secured their first-ever Champions League berth (at worst, a hand-me-down)! Continental ball is coming to Chester next season

2021 CCL Qualifiers

1. CF Monterrey [MEX1]
2. Club América [MEX3]
3. Cruz Azul [MEX2]
4. Club León [MEX4]
5. Portland Timbers [USA1, USA2, USA3 or USA4]
6. Atlético Pantoja (DOM) [CFU1]
7. Philadelphia Union [USA1, USA2, USA3 or USA4]

 

Under the current CCL format, with all four US berths set for Pot 1 in next year's tournament (unless Olimpia manage to win it all this December), there's no real tangible benefit to getting a higher berth...but the Union did it anyways, securing the Supporters' Shield for their first-ever trophy.

2021 CCL Qualifiers

1. CF Monterrey [MEX1]
2. Club América [MEX3]
3. Cruz Azul [MEX2]
4. Club León [MEX4]
5. Portland Timbers [USA1, USA2, USA3 or USA4]
6. Atlético Pantoja (DOM) [CFU1]
7. Philadelphia Union [USA1 or USA2]

 

Also worth noting that Sporting Kansas City finished top of the Western Conference regular season table and is the next US-based team in line after the Union in the full-year table...so if the USSF lets MLS have the vacated US Open Cup berth, then KC will be the likely recipient.

 

At this point, the remaining CCL qualifiers are the Canadian champion, two more teams from the US (the MLS Cup winner and the vacant US Open Cup berth) and the six qualifiers from the Concacaf League.

Four of them (the semifinalists) will be revealed when the CL quarterfinals take place in the first week of December...and the play-in games among the QF losers will happen in the second week of December.

 

An update from MLS: with Portland, Philadelphia and Toronto out of the playoffs, there is officially* no more hand-me-down situation at hand. Whoever else wants continental football next year will have to earn it themselves.

* No word yet on whether the vacant US Open Cup berth will go to Sporting Kansas City as the "opposite-conference regular season winner"

 

Word out of the Red Patch Boys (TFC supporters' group) forum is that the Canadian Championship Final may be shelved if Forge are able to reach the CCL through the Concacaf League, leaving Toronto FC as CAN1 and Forge as CAN2.

 

I stand corrected: the CSA has confirmed that the Canadian Championship Final will take place... sometime in early 2021. Curiously, they did not mention CCL qualification...

 

🇭🇹 Arcahaie FC has qualified for #SCCL2021 after defeating Forge FC in the quarterfinals of Scotiabank Concacaf League! pic.twitter.com/MYfwX2KKJ5

— Concacaf Champions Cup (@TheChampions) December 2, 2020

 

¡Saprissa clasificó a #SCCL2021 luego de vencer a CD Marathón en los cuartos de final de La Liga Concacaf Scotiabank! pic.twitter.com/n6LNHV44oJ

— Concacaf Champions Cup (@TheChampions) December 2, 2020

 

The play-in matches for next week are set - and if I'm not mistaken, both will take place in Honduras.

Marathón (HON) vs. Forge (CAN)
Motagua (HON) vs. Real Estelí (NCA)

2021 CCL Qualifiers

1. CF Monterrey [MEX1]
2. Club América [MEX3]
3. Cruz Azul [MEX2]
4. Club León [MEX4]
5. Portland Timbers [USA3 or USA4]
6. Atlético Pantoja (DOM) [CFU1]
7. Philadelphia Union [USA2]
8. Arcahaie FC (HAI) [CFU2]
9. Deportivo Saprissa [CRC1 or CRC2]
10. LD Alajuelense [CRC1 or CRC2]
11. Olimpia [HON1]

 

One imagines... but having to go get that berth in Honduras is a fool's errand.

Nothing yet... the likely question is if USSoccer has the time/interest to organize play-in games. If so, they could have Sporting KC play the Rowdies... or, selfishly, a quadrangular/knockout tournament between the Rowdies, Phoenix, and the two MLS teams next up in the full-year table (KC and Columbus - or, if the Crew win MLS Cup, KC and Orlando ).

 

The last qualifiers via the Concacaf League will be determined through the play-in games: Marathón ended Forge's Cinderella run last night (the latter has one shot left: the Voyageurs' Cup Final against TFC), and Motagua will look to similarly hold the fort tonight.

It's worth noting that seeding for Central American teams in the CCL is apparently done by their CL finish, e.g. Saprissa playing the CL last year as CRC3, but then winning the CL and getting bumped up to CRC1 for the CCL. If that's the case, the HON2 berth is up in the air - as the preliminary round hasn't been taken into account in the past, and Marathón and Motagua got identical results in the R16 and the QFs. So if I'm on the right track, Motagua can get the HON2 berth to themselves by beating Estelí by 2 goals, or with a 1-goal margin better than 1-0 (e.g. 2-1, 3-2, etc.).

2021 CCL Qualifiers

1. CF Monterrey [MEX1]
2. Club América [MEX3]
3. Cruz Azul [MEX2]
4. Club León [MEX4]
5. Portland Timbers [USA3 or USA4]
6. Atlético Pantoja (DOM) [CFU1]
7. Philadelphia Union [USA2]
8. Arcahaie FC (HAI) [CFU2]
9. Deportivo Saprissa [CRC1 or CRC2]
10. LD Alajuelense [CRC1 or CRC2]
11. Olimpia [HON1]
12. Marathón [HON2 or HON3]

 

And in the other play-in game, Motagua got a 2-0 lead, Estelí pulled one back, and then this happened:

!Real Estelí sorprende y van a penales! ⁦@TudnRadio⁩ pic.twitter.com/ATVlqYGYIO

— @futbolca1 (@futbolca1) December 10, 2020

And Estelí won on penalties! The first time a Nicaraguan team has reached the CCL via the CL.

Next up: the MLS Cup Final on Saturday...

2021 CCL Qualifiers

1. CF Monterrey [MEX1]
2. Club América [MEX3]
3. Cruz Azul [MEX2]
4. Club León [MEX4]
5. Portland Timbers [USA3 or USA4]
6. Atlético Pantoja (DOM) [CFU1]
7. Philadelphia Union [USA2]
8. Arcahaie FC (HAI) [CFU2]
9. Deportivo Saprissa [CRC1 or CRC2]
10. LD Alajuelense [CRC1 or CRC2]
11. Olimpia [HON1]
12. Marathón [HON2]
13. Real Estelí [NCA1]

 

So what, if scheduling the Voyageurs' Cup Final becomes a bear, the CSA will just bring back Montreal too?

 

And the last US entrant is:

The Crew is back to #SCCL after winning #MLSCup !

See you in 2021 @ColumbusCrewSC pic.twitter.com/Qd5GH5JMGU

— Concacaf Champions Cup (@TheChampions) December 13, 2020