Iran has a hard time in Group C. Not so sure if they qualify this time around. Bahrain is a tough nut to crack and pressure is on them to earn results.
"Iraq 11 Bahrain 9 Iran 6 Hong Kong 5 Cambodia 1 Iran in a spot of bother here and probably need 10 points from their last 4 games to have a chance of qualifying. 3 home games will assist, but they can't afford a slip up now. Both Iraq and Bahrain will need 6 points from their games against Cambodia and Hong Kong and then hope to get something in Iran." This was my assessment of how Group C looked after the last games were played nearly a year ago now. Not sure how the long break has affected the teams. I probably focused on Iran a bit as they were the group favourites before play began. They could still get to the final group stage but really need to win 3 of their last 4 games and get something out of the other one. If they lose another match they will struggle to make it even as a best second placed team. Without being disrespectful to Cambodia and Hong Kong they will struggle to get more points than what they have and if they do they will have knocked out the team they get the points from.
I'm still confident Iran will get through Round 2, as a best runner-up. With Qatar there, 5 of the 8 2nd place teams will go through, with the exception of Group E & maybe Group B all the 2nd places will be very competitive, and therefore low point scoring. I think 15 points will be enough to get through. A lot might depend on whether games need to be played at neutral "COVID safe" venues. This will make Iran's path even more difficult.
So with 1 match to go before the WC qualifying group stage draw in UEFA, there has been no change in the rankings of the top 10 during the current int'l window. However the gap between Holland in 10th and Switzerland in 11th has increased quite a bit - from 7 to 15 points. Am guessing that is insurmountable so we pretty much know the 10 top seeds. In pot 2, Slovakia has replaced Ireland.
Update on this. Indeed Brazil and Argentina looking as though they may have a relatively easy time qualifying ('relative' for Argentina). Chile and Colombia the big disappointments so far (although IMO it was expected in Chile's case). Maybe Peru too but they have had a tough schedule. Ecuador the main positive surprise. No matter what happens, Uruguay is always in 5th.
Uruguay's predictable decline and Colombia's collapse has opened things up behind the two big-shots. Other than Bolivia, the others must all think they have a great chance to finish in the top 5 positions.
Maybe I am being a bit too negative but I don't think any of the 10 teams are better now than, say, a decade ago. And several are undoubtedly weaker.
I would say that's true with Venezuela and Peru being better now IMO. If you look at Europe though, France, Belgium and England are better than they were a decade ago, but Spain, Germany, Netherlands are all worse too. Italy and Portugal I can see arguments either way. It goes in cycles and can change quick.
Yes, in Europe some moved up and others went down. But what I'm saying about CONMEBOL is they all went down (or stayed level, but mostly down). Strongly disagree with your view on Venezuela. They were quite good 10-15 years ago. Chavez put a lot of focus/money on the football team. They almost made the Copa final and almost qualified for the WC. Now they are nowhere again (at least based on 2018 qualifying). You may have a point about Peru though.
My picks for CONMEBOL before the Eliminatorias started were Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Colombia and Paraguay. For UEFA it will be possible to give more accurate predictions after the draw on 7 December. I did a bit of research and looked up how many teams qualified from which pot. There are quite some remarquable facts. It never happened since 32 team World Cup that all seeded teams managed to qualify. Very often a team of the lower pots (usually Pot 4) managed to qualify. However for the last two editions we had no team of Pot 4 qualifying. My gut feeling says me that this will change this time.... 1998 Pot 1 => 7/9 qualified Pot 2 => 4/9 qualified Pot 3 => 2/9 qualified Pot 4 => 1/9 qualified (Yuguslavia) 2002 Pot 1 => 4/9 qualified Pot 2 => 6/9 qualified Pot 3 => 3/9 qualified Pot 4 => 1/9 qualified (Slovenia) 2006 Pot 1 => 7/8 qualified Pot 2 => 3/8 qualified Pot 3 => 2/8 qualified Pot 4 => 1/8 qualified (Ukraine) 2010 Pot 1 => 7/9 qualified Pot 2 => 1/9 qualified Pot 3 => 3/9 qualified Pot 4 => 1/9 qualified (Slovakia) Pot 5 => 1/9 qualified (Slovenia) 2014 Pot 1 => 8/9 qualified Pot 2 => 2/9 qualified Pot 3 => 3/9 qualified Pot 4 => none of them qualified Note: Romania (Pot 4) lost in the playoffs to Greece by 4-2 on aggregate score. Iceland (Pot 6!!!) lost in the playoffs to Croatia by 2-0 aggregate score. That's insane that a Pot 6 team was this close to qualify! 2018 Pot 1 => 6/9 qualified Pot 2 => 4/9 qualified Pot 3 => 3/9 qualified Pot 4 => none of them qualified Note: Republic of Ireland (Pot 4) lost in the playoffs to Denmark by 5-1 aggregate score.
So that begs the question which of the Pot 4 or lower teams do you think have the best chance of qualification? Also, which of the Pot 1 teams do you think is most likely to miss out? Obviously, we'll have more informed guesses once the draw occurs. For Pot 4 or lower I'll say Bosnia and Herzegovina. They've qualified in the past. Have some good players in Dzeko and Pjanic. For a team in danger from Pot 1 I'll say Croatia. They are getting older. Although, they still have some good players maybe they get an unlucky draw and with so much fixture congestion because of covid it may take a toll on them.
I don't see a chance for any of the Pot 5 sides. Let's take a brief look at all Pot 4 sides. Luxembourg They were a minnow a few years ago. That's changing. The way they go it's quite impressive for their standards but they won't stand a chance to qualify for Qatar. Georgia I watched them in the EURO playoffs against Belarus and North Macedonia. They had enough to scrape through over the Belarussians but against North Macedonia they looked totally toothless. They are no tournament material. Belarus They are a poor side. They can beat the crap out of the minnows but once they face equal or better opposition they are found out. It's just a matter of quality. They stand no chance to qualify. Israel I watched them lately against Scotland in the Nations League. They are quite a decent outfit I have to confess. They try actually to play expansive football. They are definately a team on the up. They did alright in the Nations League. It's a plus for them to have a good striker in Zahavi. Decent chance to qualify (around 30%) Bulgaria They are not in good shape. Only 2 wins in the last 23 games. One of them against minnow Gibraltar. They changed lately several times their headcoach. Not a good sign. Their squad is almost exclusively from the domestic league. The Bulgarian League is average at best. Small chance to qualify (max 10%) Albania My country is in a transission phase. A lot of players that were part of the EURO 2016 team are phased out. We have some new players coming in and especially in goal and defense we do have some very decent players. However we lack offensive firepower. But we are heading the right direction... For a qualification for EURO 2024. The World Cup 2022 comes too soon. Small chance to qualify (max 10%) North Macedonia They qualified as the only Pot 4 team for EURO 2020. It remains to be seen if Pandev will play the whole qualification. Maybe he decides to retire from the national team directly after the EUROs. This would be a setback for their hopes to reach Qatar. North Macedonia do have some good players other than him but in overall their squad is too thin. Small chance to qualify (max 10%) Montenegro They were several times relatively close to qualify for a tournament. However in my opinion they are on a decline. They topped their Nations League group but they registered also a home loss to Luxembourg. Small chance to qualify (max 10%) Slovenia They know how to qualify for World Cups. Especially from one of the lower pots. They did qualify for 2002 from pot 4 and for 2010 from even pot 5. Matjaz Kek who guided them to qualification in South Africa 2010 is again the man on charge. They have a world-class goalkeeper with Oblak and a guy like Ilicic from Atalanta in midfield. They topped their Nations League group over Greece. I feel that they are currently the most solid team out of pot 4. They do also have the advantage of being the best Nations League group winner from League C. Therefore if at least seven out of eight of France, Belguim, Italy, Spain, Wales, Austria, Czech Republic and Hungary finish top two in their respective qualfying groups Slovenia is assured a playoff spot. So they might have a 2nd chance if it doesn't happen for them in normal qualfying. Good chance to qualify (almost 50%) Bosnia Herzegowina They looked rather poor lately. They failed to beat an average Northern Ireland at home in the EURO playoffs. Very disappointing for them. In the Nations League they didn't do much better either. They got relegated from League A with two points. Dzeko will be 35 when qualfying starts. Another big issue is that they are currently without an headcoach. Their coach stepped down a few days ago. That doesn't bode well. Especially if you consider that World Cup qualfying will start in March. The new coach won't have a single game before the qualifiers begin. There is still some quality in the squad but under these circumstances I don't like their odds too much to make it to Qatar. Decent chance to qualify (around 30%) So I recapitulate. Slovenia is my favourite to qualify from Pot 4 if any team makes it out of this pot. Israel is my 2nd choice. Kind of an left-field pick. I like how they've looked recently. Bosnia Herzegowina due to their quality also have a shot but given the circumstances it looks complicated. Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Bulgaria aren't without a chance but it would need something very special for them to make it. Georgia, Belarus and Luxembourg won't stand a chance as far as I'm concerned.
After all a lot will depend on the draw on 7 December. I'll post my updated view of Pot 4 teams' chances with predictions once we know the groups. I don't know whether you folks saw all the pots. But Slovakia and Romania are in Pot 2. Quite interesting. As in my opinion almost all teams of Pot 3 are stronger than them or at least up to their level. There is certainly a path to reach at least the playoffs for whoever from Pot 3 or for one of the sides with a shot to qualify from Pot 4 if they get grouped with them.
I feel those percentages are generally a bit too high (Slovenia 50%, Israel 30 and Bosnia 30)! Your points about what happened in prior qualifiers are noted but now that we have ten groups it is less likely for a pot 4 team to qualify. None of them have better than a 10% chance imo.
Ok, let's deduct 10% for those teams. My main intention was to make clear which sides have a shot and who rather not in my opinion. Why would it be less likely with 10 groups for a Pot 4 team to qualify?
Ok, the last two editions none of the Pot 4 teams made it to the World Cup. It could be the case that the World Rankings and the pot seedings had more flaws in older World Cups. If you look at the pots of previous World Cup qualfyings you'll see quite often nations in Pot 1 that you wouldn't expect there. I feel this time actually all teams in Pot 1 deserve their place.
Because it implies that the pot 4 teams are ranked 31 to 40th in UEFA. If there are say 8 groups then the pot 4 teams are better - #25 to 31.
Gosh, Wales is ranked 18th in the FIFA and ELO Rankings. Could I award a title of "UEFA's most overranked side" it would go to the Welsh. The only thing they've done after their great run in EURO 2016 was topping a Nations League group with Finnland, a dull Republic of Ireland and a bad Bulgaria. The only way they can justify this high ranking is by qualfying for Qatar. If they fail to do so then it's a typical case of still some flaws existing in the World Rankings.
You are conpletely right. I felt that these stats should be presented differently and more accurately. Let's have a deeper look at which lower ranked teams qualified in the past and extremely important in which groups they achieved that (teams that were ranked 20th in UEFA and lower for that matter). In my opinion looking at what happened in the past gives us roughly an idea about what can be expected from the upcoming qualfying. In brackets are written the ranking of that team in the UEFA Rankings at the time of the draw. Powerhouses they played against are written in italics. Qualified directly as group winners 1998 Austria (22) in a group with Scotland Sweden Latvia Estonia Belarus 2002 Poland (22) Ukraine Belarus Norway Wales Armenia 2006 Serbia Montenegro (20) Spain Bosnia Herzegowina Belguim Lithuania San Marino Ukraine (28) Turkey Denmark Greece Albania Georgia Kazakhstan 2010 Slovakia (28) Slovenia Czech Republic Northern Ireland Poland San Marino Switzerland (26) Greece Latvia Israel Luxembourg Moldova Denmark (22) Portugal Sweden Hungary Albania Malta Serbia (21) France Austria Lithuania Romania Faroe Island 2014 Belguim (22) Croatia Serbia Scotland Wales North Macedonia Bosnia Herzegowina (24) Greece Slovakia Lithuania Latvia Liechtenstein 2018 Poland (21) Denmark Montenegro Romania Armenia Kazakhstan Serbia (26) Republic of Ireland Wales Austria Georgia Moldova Summary: The two lowest ranked sides that did manage to qualify directly were both ranked 28th. In the current UEFA Rankings Scotland occupies the 28th position. Qualified via playoffs 1998 Yuguslavia (36) finished 2nd in Spain Czech Republic Slovakia Faroe Island Malta Beat Hungary (31) in the playoffs Note: Yuguslavia's low ranking was due to sanctions against them. They were not allowed to participate in all tournaments from 1992 until to just that World Cup back then. 2002 Slovenia (27) finished 2nd in Russia Yuguslavia Switzerland Faroe Island Luxembourg Beat Romania (7) in the playoffs 2006 Switzerland (24) finished 2nd in France Israel Republic of Ireland Cyprus Faroe Island Beat Turkey (4) in the playoffs 2010 Slovenia (39) finished 2nd in Slovakia Czech Republic Northern Ireland Poland San Marino Beat Russia (15) in the playoffs 2018 Sweden (23) finished 2nd in France Netherlands Bulgaria Luxembourg Belarus Beat Italy (11) in the playoffs Summary: The lowest ranked side that qualified via the playoffs was Slovenia (39) in 2010. In the current UEFA Rankings Georgia occupies the 39th position. Conclusions: Not very surprisingly the most teams that were ranked 20th and lower in UEFA that qualified for the World Cup did so in favourable groups without a powerhouse in it. Only Serbia Montenegro (20) in 2006 prevailed over Spain, Denmark (22) in 2010 prevailed over Portugal and Serbia (21) in 2010 prevailed over France. If we disregard the special situation around Yuguslavia for the World Cup 1998 that lead to an extremely low ranking for them, Slovenia (39) was the only team that made the World Cup and was ranked lower than 28th in UEFA. They did it in a lenient group. So what does this all tell us? Only teams from Pot 1,2 and 3 have realistically a chance to make it when you look at recent history. Thus the Pot 4 sides will have to pray for a lenient draw (for example to fall in a group with Denmark or Croatia out of pot 1 and/or to get preferably Slovakia or Romania out of Pot 2) and hope to snatch a playoff spot and try to make it from there. After having digged a bit deeper into this matter I have to admit that the chances that I initially stated for Slovenia, Israel and Bosnia Herzegowina were way too optimistic. So you were absolutely right.
Personally, having looked at some sample draws (made one myself as well), I get the sense that this time around the groups will be a lot more even and predictable. Obviously teams can always surprise due to new personnel, a streak of good form, etc. (and vice versa), but I'd say there's about a 85-90% chance (depending on how highly you rate Denmark) that all 10 Pot 1 sides qualify, and a 95+% chance that at least 9 of the 10 do. I think it's entirely possible actually that all 13 qualifiers come from the two highest pots.
You've got a point there. I, for myself expect at least one team from Pot 1 to not make it. Football is a sport full of surprises. Europe is a very competitive confederation. There will be surely a few sides that will spring a surprise. If you hit bad form or if you're not up for it you will easily get punished by your opponents. I hope that the results won't be too much affected by COVID stuff if anything. It would be depressing to see if teams get penalised and end up missing out on qualification due to this. Maybe my hopes for all Pot 4 sides including my team Albania are somewhat dashed after my research I did and but I remain confident that at least some Pot 3 teams will qualify in the end. UEFA is just too deep on decent medium class teams for that no to be happening. If you look at all qualfyings since 1998 Pot 2 sended 20/53 teams to the final tournament. That's ~ 38% Pot 3 sended 16/53 teams to the final tournament. That's ~ 30% If you look at qualfyings since 2006 Pot 2 sended 10/35 teams. ~29% Pot 3 sended 11/35 teams. ~31% The difference in quality between Pot 2 and Pot 3 isn't vast if anything. That can be also said for this time in my opinion. Just compare the pots. Pot 2................................ Pot 3 Switzerland..........................Russia Wales.................................. Hungary Poland.................................Republic of Ireland Sweden................................Czech Republic Austria.................................Norway Ukraine................................Northern Ireland Serbia..................................Iceland Turkey................................. Scotland Slovakia.............................. Greece Romania..............................Finland
I have a lot of stats on the previous UEFA World Cup qualfyings. I wonder if those stats can enable me to predict the outcome of the next qualfying more accurately including maybe one or two surprises. If we look back at 2018 qualfying it was weird to see powerhouses like Italy and the Netherlands missing out. I feel that the upcoming qualfying will probably be less spectacular in that regard. It's very likely that all big dogs qualify this time. Denmark or Croatia are probably the most tipped sides out of pot 1 to not qualify if the trend of at least one seeded team to miss out should continue. The tricky question will be to predict correctly who out of Pot 3 or, much less likely of Pot 4 will qualify. I can't wait for the draw results.