I personally am so sad for the kids. They've been pawns in this entire game. The BIG 10 posting football schedules beginning of the week, commissioner saying it is safe to play football on Thursday (my son is playing in the SEC) to a Sunday meeting where they vote to cancel the fall sports. Meanwhile on college campuses everywhere (Big 10 for sure) kids are moving into the dorms. Seriously it was never about safety. Liability absolutely. At least be honest to us. I pray that the SEC, ACC and Big 12 play successfully! That is going to absolutely make it a necessity for at the minimum Big 10 and Pac 12 to play in the spring (and hoping that the other schools will follow). It sucks, it sucks for everyone. We could have herd immunity by November by looking at some of the parties said college age kids are currently having as they move back onto campus and off campus housing. To quote most coaches, "I'm absolutely gutted for these kids."
BIG EAST Announces Fall Sports Postponement https://www.bigeast.com/news/2020/8/12/golf-big-east-announces-fall-sports-postponement.aspx "The sports affected are: men’s and women’s soccer, men’s and women’s cross country, volleyball and field hockey. Sports that are not sponsored by the BIG EAST Conference are not affected." "Butler University, University of Connecticut, Creighton University, DePaul University, Georgetown University, Marquette University, Providence College, St. John’s University, Seton Hall University, Villanova University and Xavier University".
If you cancel all your fall sports then you should be cancelling all of your fall in person classes. To have students moving on campus and going to class but saying it isn't safe enough to play sports is a joke. I drove through Pitts campus today while move in week is going on. Tons of people everywhere and most not wearing masks. A massive game of ultimate frisbee going on in one of the grass areas on campus. No chance of college kids social distancing
We are going to have a significant reduction in college sports in the next year. Rutgers looking at program cuts if no football. Bowling green, central Michigan, and toledo are discussing program and scholarship cuts. Oakland, Dayton, Xavier, Buffalo, Canisius are all just hoping they have an athletic department in 12 months. Many other coaches speculating similar scenarios but these are just programs whose coaches have been told there may be dire consequences because of the covid situation.
With the Big East deciding not to have Fall sports, it is done: No NCAA championship in the Fall -- maybe one in the Spring, time will tell. Now what are the ACC, Big 12, and SEC going to do about their non-football Fall sports? For Division I women’s soccer: Total Division I Teams 341 Not Eligible for NCAA Tournament 6 Total Teams Eligible for Tournament 335 50% of Eligible Teams 168 Eligible Teams Not Playing in Fall 176 Additional Not Playing to Equal 50% -9 I think we will be seeing more conferences joining in the no Fall sports group.
I just don’t really see the NCAA moving the championship to the spring. I think women’s soccer just wont have a championship this year. The big question is going to be if the conference decides to play a conference season rather its in the fall or in the spring, if a team plays, will that take a year of eligibility away from kids if the NCAA doesn’t host a championship. I think this is the number one question going through most coaches minds right now
While I agree that there is really no chance of college kids social distancing, I disagree with the premise of your first paragraph. I think you have it backwards. and it should read like this: "If you cancel all of your fall in person classes then you should be cancelling all of your fall sports." Classes take precedence. Classes and education are why universities and colleges exist. Sports are a byproduct of the educational system. Many colleges have gone to mostly remote classes. Additionally, athletics carry some additional risks to the student-athletes that are not posed to the general student population. The athletes are travelling to many different campuses. Each campus community is unique. Some are in areas that are much more prone to outbreaks. All of that said, I believe that many schools will be asking undergrads, or those living in campus housing, to be moving out well before Thanksgiving. I hope I'm wrong but I'm not optimistic. Part of your argument reminds me of local parents of the school districts near where I live. Many of them are upset because they believe that if classes and instruction are remote that there should still be athletics. That is totally warped. If the superintendent, through consultation with local health officials, deems that in person classes aren't safe, then athletics should in no way be played. I feel for the kids but the parents sound like crybabies. I am reticent to bring politics into the discussion again but just yesterday the president said something to the effect that if college football isn't played this fall that it will be a "tragedy." I love sports and while I agree that cancelling sports sucks, it is not a tragedy. A tragedy is someone dying that, even though they may have commodities, could have lived 5 or 10 more years had they not become afflicted with covid. It was a tragedy that the president has downplayed covid and because of that, the problem is a lot worse than it needed to be and many more have died than needed to. A tragedy is that such a weak "leader" even became the leader of this country to begin with. We won't have herd immunity by November. It would be nice but we're still very far away from getting there and we shouldn't be trying to. There are two ways that herd immunity is achieved - through vaccination or natural infection. Since a vaccine will not be available that has gone through phase 3 clinical trials before November, the herd immunity is going to have to come through natural infection. At the current Ro of covid, that means that about 70% need to be infected. The current population of the United States is a hair under 330 million. That means about 231 million in the United States need to be infected. That will not happen by November. As of now in the US we've had about 5,360,302 cases so about about 1.6% of the population has been infected. That's probably a little low, as more have probably been infected, were asymptomatic, and have recovered, but we're not even close to 70%. A vaccine, hopefully, will be developed before that number is reached.
Most experts (including organizations like the CDC) believe the actual infection rate is at least 10x higher than reported...so while still not close to 70%, it’s a lot more than “a little low.” to your point on vaccinations...worth noting even if a vaccination is clinically approved in late ‘20 or early ‘21, the rollout could take MONTHS longer. Not only do I not think the NCAA will have fall sport championships in the spring, I think we in athletics will consider ourselves lucky if we have winter or even spring championships at all. Although, again, some are going to try to play football this fall, or at latest next spring, and the NCAA basketball tournament seems like a play at all costs situation this spring, but we will see.
I’m sorry I know I shouldn’t take the bait but closing the border with China did nothing but act as a political “win.” Chinese people or people in China just flew to Europe first and then here. And once anyone arrived from overseas there was no testing, tracing or quarantine. so yes, just banning travel from China was about appealing to a racist base and not at all about stopping the virus (which was already here). there is no way anyone can look at how Trump handled this and say he’s competent or a good leader. It’s August 11th and there’s still no plan. NO PLAN. NO TESTING OR TRACING PROTOCOL. No resources thrown at development of a cheap and easily accessible rapid test. Nothing. He just stands up there and butchers the English language, makes up stupid names for people he doesn’t like and pass toothless and unenforceable executive orders. This will go down as the biggest lack of leadership and terrible response to an event in our nations history. Why doesn’t he just shut up, let the adults lead and show up to his maga rallies and blunder through his stupid script. Ok sorry. I’m frustrated. I admonish myself and will stay on topic. if I’m in the big 12 I’m saying coach, thanks but no thanks. Lose a year of eligibility for what? Winning a conference title. Um ok.
You know if my backside hurt as bad as yours does I would have got it checked out long ago. 3 1/2 years is too long to wait. Please have it checked out stat.
@PlaySimple how did you take it that classes aren't first by my post? I didnt say lets have sports and make all the classes online. I said if the school is shutting down all fall sports then they better be cancelling all their in person classes as well. If its not safe enough to have the athletes playing with all the medical experts they have working with them then its definitely not safe enough to have regular students with no medical oversight on campus either. Schools should fall into 2 categories right now. Either no fall sports which would also mean no fall classes in person. That campus should be completely Barron. Or If the campus deems it safe enough to have in person classes then their administration is saying its safe enough for sports and their sports should be allowed to decide if they want to go or not.
I agree and was saying this all along. How can you close campus and cancel classes making them online only, but somehow contact sports is OK? People aren't stupid. Wasn't ever going to fly and it didn't.
Big Sky Postpones All Fall Sports Until Spring 2021https://t.co/emgpUttgtU pic.twitter.com/4LNdzF79NP— Big Sky Conference (@BigSkyConf) August 13, 2020 I know it's not a "glamor conference", but it was mine.
The Southland press release: https://www.southland.org/news/2020...ones-league-competition-in-fall-semester.aspx "...Meeting frequently in recent weeks, including Wednesday afternoon, presidents of the 13 Southland members also authorized planning for spring semester championship events for volleyball, soccer and cross country..." "...we look forward to a unique spring season of athletics that also includes NCAA postseason opportunities.”
The Big Sky press release: https://bigskyconf.com/news/2020/8/...tpones-all-fall-sports-until-spring-2021.aspx “..Our efforts in the conference office now will focus on doing everything within our power to make their spring season the best that it possibly can be, which includes advocating for their NCAA championships to be held then...."
Yeah, I guess my "a little low" comment didn't translate well. What I meant by a little low was that the percentage of residents that I quoted, 1.6%, was a little low. I wasn't comparing it to the ≈ 70% that is assumed to be required for herd immunity. If the actual infection rate is, indeed, ten times what is being reported, we're at roughly 53.6 million cases in the United States or about 16.2% of the population. So, yeah, we have a long way to go to reach that herd threshold. Given how covid spreads exponentially, though, that threshold very well could be reached before a vaccine. It will not, though, be reached by November as @soccerfanalways suggested. I heard a good analogy about the spread of covid recently. Let's suppose you go to a craft party and you're the only one that was using glitter. What are the chances that others at the party will end up with glitter on their project even if they didn't want glitter on their project? That is how easily it spreads. Are you going to argue that he's wrong? Do you believe that the president has done a good job with all of this? It's a clown show. And Jim Jordan, the sycophant that he is, somehow believe that sports being canceled has nothing to do with the current administration. Democrats won’t let you:-Go to church.-Go to school.-Go to work.-Go to the beach. -Vote in person.-Attend a loved one’s funeral.-Play college football.Democrats will let you:-Protest -Riot-Loot— Rep. Jim Jordan (@Jim_Jordan) August 11, 2020 It's funny - I know a lot of Republicans and Democrats and many in between. I'm a moderate independent myself. Just about everyone I know wants to do those things that Jim Jordan says Democrats won't let you do and many of them do those things anyway. Jordan also needs to clue us in how it is the Democrats that are cancelling sports. People just want to be safe. What we're seeing now is the fruition of people not being safe and being careless instead. It's not surprising at all. I guess that we'll need to agree to disagree on that point. Sports, particularly, contact sports, have a little more risk than attending school. While I honestly believe that most schools will end up going remote, the effort needs to be made for in person classes. I guess that I am not comprehending your post accurately. To me, at least, it seems that you are placing the highest emphasis on sports and hence the "no fall sports which would also mean no fall classes in person" comment that you made. In reality, though, we're going through the motions. If there are any conferences that have sports it won't be for long and there will also probably be campuses that will have large outbreaks. At that point the campuses will then be barren. College kids don't have the discipline to do what is necessary to keep the campuses open. Sadly, many adults wouldn't either.
do all these schools that are moving to the spring championship season realize the NCAA never said there would be fall championships moved to the spring? they are just hoping the NCAA does that. It makes sense to do that but its the NCAA so I wouldn't count on it. All the NCAA is proving is they are pointless because they won't make actual decisions. All the leadership of the NCAA should be fired immediately. At this point it doesn't even matter what the decision is. Just make one! The athletes deserve better
If colleges are smart--and they certainly intend to abide by protocols and limit gatherings--they ought to be able to avoid large outbreaks. I think there is little chance of players catching the virus from other players in a match, as everybody will be tested before and after matches. Indeed, athletes are surely safer than the general population. Schools are a risk--but I also think there is excessive caution at play when it comes to athletics. The great majority of positive tests are asymptomatic, and with young people there is little risk of serious illness. It's easy to find some reason not to play--especially when one or two league decide to postpone. The herd factor takes over. A lot of organizations have shown the problem can be managed.
In regards to herd immunity my comment was tongue in cheek, not meant to be taken literally. My comment was somewhat sarcastic in that it's not ok for athletes with strict protocols, contact tracing, testing etc to play but yet safe for the general college population to come to school and do what college kids do (and the vast majority of that is not social distancing) We are hower starting to see community immunity in many areas. This is an important concept. Herd immunity is defined loosely as a disease not being able to spread in a community due to a high percentage of the community having the disease or some protection from it. Community or effective immunity is where the disease can spread but not rapidly nor easily due to many in the community with protection. The article below is long and fairly detailed but antibodies and testing/known recovery data is not even close to showing what the true picture is. Our human bodies are pretty amazing as we have many systems which work to protect us from disease, t-cells being one of them. Scientists are still researching but this could be why we see 50% of positive tests in some areas being without symptoms, it could also explain why so many have such mild symptoms. I'm optimistic given this point: Looking at the data, we see that transmissions in many severely impacted states began to slow down in July, despite limited interventions. This is especially notable in states like Arizona, Florida, and Texas. While we believe that changes in human behavior and changes in policy (such as mask mandates and closing of bars/nightclubs) certainly contributed to the decrease in transmission, it seems unlikely that these were the primary drivers behind the decrease. We believe that many regions obtained a certain degree of temporary herd immunity after reaching 10-35 percent prevalence under the current conditions. We call this 10-35 percent threshold the effective herd immunity threshold. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/202...19-optimism-on-t-cells-and-herd-immunity.html So, it is not entirely unthinkable given the above research (and this article refers to many scientific peer based studies) that we could actually have some sort of community immunity after the disease goes through a significant portion of our college age kids. Keep in mind, a lot of them may have already had it this summer. Be honest, most were not social distancing and masking 100% of the time. We have done a terrible job tracking, testing, gathering data throughout this entire process. We rushed tests to the market, couldn't get tests in production quick enough (this is a discussion for another day about sending essential needs production overseas like medical supplies meds etc) but if anyone is saying that we actually have anywhere close to a clue how many have had this disease, or who currently have it they are not being honest. We are also all over the board in the world as to how we are reporting data. So don't pat yourselves on the back China for having so few documented and reported cases and deaths. Your numbers are meaningless. And New Zealand who thought it was gone from their shores now after over 100 days has community spread cases. So it has been going all throughout the community in New Zealand for 100 days (this given a 10 day incubation spread (and many get sick in 2 days) could be 10 generations of community spread unknown to New Zealand officials. So many get it with mild or no symptoms that unless we are testing completely healthy people ALL THE TIME we have no idea. And supposedly the virus originated in China in Jan but yet we have found a positive case in France (via community spread) in December. That case was positively identified because they saved some blood I think and were looking for unusual pneumonia symptoms. Who knows truly how long it has been around. Point being we are all in the dark. Let's be kind, let's be truthful about what we know and don't know and please don't let politics get in the way. All of us can agree, we want life back to normal. We want sports, we want to be able to be in crowds again. If limiting our exposure in close contact with others is the key then let's be honest, none of us should be protesting, going to bars, attending rallies etc The virus doesn't not spread among your chosen left or right side of center. We have to start being honest with each other. If it isn't safe for athletes to run cross country or golf, how is it safe to let kids into dorms especially ones who are sharing their dorms with strangers?
What if there isn't any lasting immunity from catching the virus? Like, if immunity only last three months or such? What does the "community immunity plan" become?
No one really knows. I have a very good friend who contracted the disease in Europe in March She was one of the ones who was REALLY sick with no underlying issues. Her whole family tested positive to COVID and still have very high levels of antibodies. She was the only one in the family who was really sick. Kids hardly sick at all, husband had a cough. They're all going strong with antibodies at five months. Her infectious disease specialist feels strongly that they are all protected. For how long who knows but for right now they are. My sister in law has been positively identified with antibodies twice, She has no idea when she was sick. Had a very slight fever first weekend of February. Thinking that is when she had COVID. She travels internationally a lot so that timeframe works for contracting it. So she's working on almost 7 months of post COVID and still has antibodies. No one in her family has tested positive for antibodies, not even her husband. So we have no idea how long they'll last or what protection they'll provide. However we do have some basis for thinking that immunity will offer some sort of protection for 1-3 years. https://www.npr.org/sections/health...ow-long-will-immunity-to-the-coronavirus-last Again, we don't fully understand immunology as it is complex and requires many different reactions by many different systems in our bodies. At the end of the day washing hands, masking and social distancing do seem to curb the transmission. Keep in mind too 80% have mild to no symptoms from this disease and it is even less if you are under 65 and aren't obese. We are also unwilling as a society (and I don't know why) to be honest and say that obesity is the number one comorbidity for COVID complications. Numerous studies confirm this but we as a society are unwilling to educate people on this. It makes no sense, we have the tools to educate. Any reduction in BMI helps to reduce risks. If I was obese or any of my family members were I would be strongly encouraging them to get some of that weight off as quickly and as safely as possible. But that's not a "politically correct" area to focus on. https://www.ajmc.com/view/kaiser-se...sk-of-covid-19-death-especially-for-the-young The key factor the Big Ten and Pac 12 used to cancel fall sports was the myocarditis risk from COVID (it can also occur with any virus but I digress). I do not know which other athletes were diagnosed with myocarditis as those names were not released but the one athlete whose mom posted on facebook about her son's battle with COVID and heart issues (assuming myocarditis) was over 300 lbs. So technically for his height (you can google and find out who it is, I'm not naming names) he was obese according to his BMI. Again, it can happen to anyone but if your BMI labels you as obese (think offensive lineman/defensive linemen/track and field athletes-shot put etc) all current research indicates you are more susceptible to complications from COVID than someone with a lower BMI. We know about that risk and can mitigate it with testing and knowledge.
im beating the P5’s take the lead here justas they did on the shutdown. They’ll threaten a breakaway if they have to. In that vein , the WCC closed down fall competition and plans to resehedule to Spring. In a curious twist, they are not prohibiting schools from scheduling their own competitions as they consider fitting. “The postponement of WCC fall sports seasons and championships does not preclude member institutions from scheduling non-conference competitions in low risk sports in the fall. ” https://wccsports.com/news/2020/8/13/general-wcc-postpones-fall-competition.aspx So now we get to consider whether the P5’s shut down football for health reasons or union busting player demands for better compensation. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2...ball-season-is-about-union-busting-not-health