2020 Election: Too much, but not enough

Can you get a clearer signal that the AG is simply the Minister for Interior proposing fascist one party rule?

Amazing how bad things have got

Bill Barr knows exactly what he’s doing. Don’t let them get away with it. We are #America. This fall #WeWillVote and send these authoritarian wannabes back to their holes. https://t.co/4oce95GIWl

— Reed Galen (@reedgalen) August 10, 2020

 

Yeah, sure, the article does. But I don't think survey give us enough information to make that decision, which is what the article is primarily based on. One thing which I missing (and I didn't check all the links in the article, so it may be there) is there is no comparison to how u30 Black voters say they will vote and if they actually do vote in previous elections.

The survey says, more or less, that u30 Blacks don't trust government to do what is right, and that @chad indicates, there is institutional racism by way of not having Blacks in a position of power/leadership (see the change in numbers between who would vote if there was a Black, female VP and just Biden as is - IOW, not a Black, female VP).

But @Yoshou is also right in that if this survey was conducted with White, liberals there would likely be a similar result. This bears out in that youth are less likely to vote, in general, and that changes as they grow older. We know this and have seen the data again and again and again. Even with Obama, the youth vote was historically down (IIRC, during Reagan it was about 22%, but Obama was at about 19%). And this survey bears out that pattern in that the older groups say they are more likely to vote.

Further, what it appears to me is that the u30 Blacks do not appear to be politically engaged for politics sake, though they do appear to be politically engage for civics sake. IOW, they support more local policies and issues, which is what the BLM protests are about. And there should be no surprise that the "agents of change" results are largely local in nature.

There are three other things which I would like to see either in more detail, or in future surveys:
1 - Separate the responses by state. A quick look shows that Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philadelphia are among the most segregated cities in the US (all top 10 in most surveys), both now and going back about 20 years. I wonder how those three states would differ from Southeast/Sun Belt states.
2 - I would like there to be an economic breakdown of all respondents, particularly those of u30. I also would like to see of the u30 demographic, their economics of the household they grew up in.
3 - I would also like the 30-44 demographic broken apart. I know in the past that this could be useful, but those closer to 30 are more likely to be just starting a family or planning while those closer to 44 are more likely to have more stable careers and households and older kids (if there are kids in the picture). And this is not just for this survey, but for all surveys/polls.

One thing which did stand out in the survey is that 27% of the u30 crowd though the Republicans were welcoming. This is one of the reasons I would like to see the economic breakdown of the households the U30 grew up in.

Edit - I should also add I would like to see how those questions are answered in places like New York or Maryland or California as well.

 

When will the media start with the GOP in disarray narrative?

POTUS warring with Sasse. Fake legislation because his own senate can't manage to helicopter in money for his re-elect

And a Republicans for Biden movement?

Our #BidenRepublicans Rally is live now with @reedgalen of @ProjectLincoln! Tune in to connect with fellow Republicans to see how we can make a difference for Biden this election. https://t.co/s3OnISKboS

— Biden Republicans (@BidenReps) August 10, 2020

 

NPRs Politics Podcast, while not using "disarray," mentions the problems all the time. They are a bit subtle, saying things like how the Dems passed the bill 3 months ago, but the Republicans can't agree on what their bill should look like. Stuff like that. I think I have heard it elsewhere, possibly 538 as well. So it is out there.

 

This is why I would like to see the economic breakdown of the household they grew up in. I'm thinking of the school district I worked in for a minutes pre-pandemic. This district is conservative, largely White, and most of the Black students are bussed in. But there are a few Blacks who grew up in the area (the school district is very, very good), and they tend to hang out with the students who grew up in that area, who are mostly White (though there are many South Asians), but only spend minimal time with other Black students (more along the lines of socializing rather than hanging out). Granted, one is more artistic, and there are inherent difficulties Black students who are bussed in would have being part of the after school Art Club. But it is a different set of friends those have, as opposed to those I know were bussed in. Thus, my wondering is if those who grew up in that neighborhood, that White, conservative neighborhood, might have that opinion of the Republican Party because their friends or their friends' parents are Republican, and those Black students spend positive time at the Republican households.

 

Yeah, I agree that it seems unlikely, but without more information it is difficult to really answer. But, looking at the survey, it seems clear to me that the u30 group is not as political active/aware as older Blacks, and they also are using terms to describe Biden which are promoted by Republicans. So while I think it is probably an outlier, I'm not going to discount it in it's entirety, which is a sad statement.

 

Election rigging plain and simple

I am now officially very concerned about Trump using mail delays to steal a close election. It is time to raise the alarm and develop a plan to fight back. https://t.co/WuTygTm6wd

— Dan Pfeiffer (@danpfeiffer) August 9, 2020

 

I don't trust my fellow White people. At all.