Post-match: Leicester City vs Bournemouth [R]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...e-thing-for-the-champions-league-not-anymore/ wrote about how they have gotten worse. They started with 12 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses to have 38 points through 16 games. In their next 19 games, which is half of the seasons, they have about 1.1 points per game with 21. Starting with game 17, they had a draw hosting last place Norwich and understandable losses to Liverpool and Man City. Wins at West Ham and Newcastle might have made it seem like they were back on track, but they followed them with losses to Southampton and Burnley. They played West Ham for the second time in five games and won again, and then had draws against Chelsea and Wolves. They had consecutive 1-0 losses to Man City and Norwich, so they got 1 point in 2 games against Norwich, and their game before the break was a 4-0 win hosting second-to-last Aston Villa. That was 4 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses for 15 points in 13 games. They have 6 points in 6 games since resuming, with their only win against Crystal Palace. They had draws against Watford, Brighton, and Arsenal, and they lost to Everton and Bournemouth. Their decline combined with Man City's Champions League ban being overturned by Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) means that FiveThirtyEight now gives them a 47 percent chance at qualifying for the Champions League. They have a hard remaining schedule, but have 2 of 3 at home. They host eighth place Sheffield United today, go to seventh place Tottenham, and end hosting fifth place Man United, which could be the most important game of the last matchday on 26 July. Their +29 goal differential is 3 better than Man United, so Leicester City will probably win the tiebreaker if necessary. If Leicester and Man United get the same amount of points in the next two games, it's unlikely that Man United will make up 3 goal differential in that span, and it might have to be 4 goal differential made up because Leicester has 4 more goals scored. If they enter the last game tied on points with Leicester having the better goal differential, Leicester would just need a draw to stay ahead. If Man United gains 3 points on Leicester in the next two games, Man United probably won't gain at least 5 of goal differential. If Man United gains 3 points and 4 goal differential, they would lead by 3 points and 1 goal differential going into the last game, so Leicester would be tied on points and win the goal differential tiebreaker with any win. Man United has a much easier next two games. They are at Crystal Palace today and then host West Ham, who is probably safe but not mathematically safe. If Aston Villa doesn't win at Everton today, and West Ham wins hosting Watford tomorrow, West Ham will be above the relegation zone by 6 points and 11 goal differential with 2 games left and be realistically safe before going to Man United. In order for Leicester or Man United to clinch finishing ahead of the other one before they play each other, one must gain at least 4 points on the other in the next two games, meaning that they must get unequal points today.

I like when clubs that aren't expected to be good can be good, and in Leicester's case even win a surprise title, but I don't want Leicester to make the Champions League because I'm a Man United fan. By ending against each other, the clubs won't need to check other scores while playing unless one of them could finish behind the other and ahead of Chelsea. It guarantees that neither of them could miss the Champions League because of a loss or draw to a bad club when a win would have been enough. Chelsea is 4 points above Leicester and Man United, but that includes Chelsea's unimpressive 1-0 win hosting Norwich two days ago, and Leicester and Man United's games today are a game in hand. Chelsea's +15 is much worse than Leicester and Man United's, and +15 with two games left is extremely low by the standards of a third place club. To the nearest whole number, Chelsea is on pace to finish +16. In the last five complete seasons, the third place club has ranged from +24 to +41 with an average of +34.4, which is 2.15 times 16. +16 is closer to 0 than to +34.4. Chelsea has a hard remaining schedule with a trip to Liverpool on Wednesday, albeit the game only matters to Liverpool if they're thinking about a points record, and ends hosting Wolves.

Wolves are 3 points behind Leicester and Man United, but Wolves has two games left and is very unlikely to pass two clubs to get up to fourth. Wolves is 7 points behind Chelsea, so Wolves can't pass Chelsea. Wolves goal differential of +11 is much worse than Leicester and Man United, meaning that even if Wolves win both games, they need Leicester and Man United to get 0 or 1 point from their next two games and draw against each other. If Leicester and Man United win today, Wolves will be mathematically eliminated from Champions League contention. If one of Leicester and Man United wins today, Wolves will be realistically eliminated from Champions League contention.