It is hard for me to rate Ecuador. They just hired a manager from another continent who I think has no idea what he is getting into. His first couple WCQ matches will be the first time he actually gets to see what he has player wise since he has had not FIFA friendlies to work with. So it is a baptism by fire as they say. I think a slow start will basically be their down fall unless by some miracle the players believe what he is selling and find a way to get results despite not really knowing his philosophy or tactics very well.
Dude, there is 0 chance Uruguay would lose a two leg playoff to Australia. This isn't 2006, Uruguay has much better players and Australia much worse players. Even if they played Japan it would be hard for them to lose the play-off. The only old players they have are Godin (a CB, so not that big a deal), Cavani and Suarez. And they aren't THAT old still (same age as Messi and Aguero for ex.) Then they have excellent younger players Valverde, Torreira, Bentancur, Giménez, Araujo, Maxi Gómez.. IMO the only thing holding them back is their coach but they will take a top 4 place 99% sure. 5th place to me is between Venezuela and Chile. Venezuela has been playing almost the same team in every match for the last 2 years and they are improving every day. Chile I think the old guard has steam for 2 more years so they will compete, but they should drop Rueda. Perú will lose steam if Guerrero can't keep form (they have no one that can score goals other than him). Ecuador seems to be too much in rebuilding phase and with a random european coach. Paraguay only has Almiron and good CBs, other than that the squad is not very talented and Berizzo is just a bad coach IMO. Bolivia has nothing.
That's harsh. I'm sure our chances would be better than zero. Maybe around 5%. I agree we aren't the team we were in 2005.
Which is why I said earlier Uruguay is pretty much guaranteed to qualify for Qatar and they will. That is why it is pretty much a dog race for that 5th place playoff spot and it will be a 4 team race between Venezuela, Chile, Ecuador and Paraguay because any one of those 4 teams could grab 5th place and play in the playoff against Asia for that Intercontinental playoff
Within the whole context of what I said, when guys like Suarez and Godin the heart and soul of the attack and the defense getting up there in age PLUS a fiasco and uncertainty in their Federation when it comes to their managerial situation AND the funding problems in general I think they will have problems going forward. They have had very good teams in the past that have struggled in the 5th spot before and I think it can happen again. No need to get all upset because of my opinion "dude".
If Uruguay is going to miss out, other CONMEBOL nations will need to get a lot better. I mean Uruguay has probably been on the decline for 8 years, albeit very gradually. But they qualified for WC 2018 with relative ease. Some of that could be down to just the way the ball bounced, but I do think the overall level of some CONMEBOL teams has declined over the past 2 cycles.
It can be interpreted as a "hot take" that Uruguay will struggle but talent does not always equal results. Especially if their main tactician is not going to lead them into battle for the first time in more than a decade.
I think teams like Chile, Peru , Paraguay and Venezuela will make it difficult for them. As we all know CONMEBOL is difficult during normal cycles. This cycle I do think things could get even uglier.
Too many undrawn groups too really give a true prediction. Plus with global pandemic we don't know FIFA calendar updates what changes will be made and what if any format changes are made to qualifiers. For right now based on rankings here are qualifiers. AFC - HOST - Qatar then Japan, Iran, Korea Republic, Australia CONMEBOL - Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Colombia, Chile CONCACAF - Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica AFRICA - Senegal, Tunisia, Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco UEFA - Belgium, France, England, Croatia, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Italy, Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Sweden,Poland Teams on the outside to look out for New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Ecuador, Canada, Honduras, Ghana, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Norway, Wales, Ukraine, Turkey, Greece
For me I just can't see Tunisia qualifying again out of Africa...but Algeria however I can agree with. Morocco for me I don't know if they have to what it takes to qualify for back to back World Cups in a row especially without Herve Renard. It was even because of him that they qualified for Russia 2018 and in AFCON 2019 they crashed out in Round of 16. Senegal and Nigeria are given at this point But for CONCACAF it might even be 3 teams especially if Intercontinental playoff could be CONCACAF vs CONMEBOL and AFC vs OFC; I see Asia getting that extra spot
Intercontinental playoff matchups are to be drawn. So I had to pick 2 so I picked the best ranked teams from the 4 confederations that would compete in the playoffs given everything shook out how the rankings say they will.
Going back to my Uruguay is going to struggle hot take/ prediction... ...These next two matches are going to be crucial to the validity of my words. Uruguay has always struggled in the Heat of Barranquilla. And Brasil has done very well in Montevideo the last few cycles. Having only three points after 4 match days is not out of the realm of possibility. And that may be a hole they have to dig out with pressure. They will be thinking long and hard about it over a long span of time till the next set of matches in March. Now, they do have the talent and the sure guts and grit that they usually have but they are treading on thin ice in my mind. Let's see if they can prove me wrong.
Yeah, Colombia is looking strong so far. But I think as long as Uruguay don't drop points that others wouldn't drop they should be okay. In that sense, its good to get these tough away fixtures out of the way early. Playing in Colombia and Argentina will only get tougher when fans are allowed back in the stadiums. So I don't see the likes of Paraguay or Chile going to Colombia/Argentina and winning their either in front of 50,000+ Colombians/Argies. Also, I am not at all sold on this Chilean side after watching their first 2 matches. Their NT seems to be headed back to where they were pre-2005. And if they don't qualify Uruguay's chances increase quite a bit.
It is going to be so interesting to see if Uruguay can just gut out results with passion and desire because their futbol really is not that pretty to look at. They still have deadly attackers who are opportunistic and know how to draw penalties but they just lose possession so easily and look so sloppy in the back compared to cycles past. Would it surprise me to see them get points in both matches? No, but it is going to be difficult. Chile is just getting old and the younger players are just not at a high quality. That and Rueda's tactics just do not seem to complement their mentality and cultural style of high pace and press. I think it will be a dog fight between those two teams, Peru , Paraguay and Ecuador. All having faults and flaws but all can pull off the odd upset.
AFC - HOST - Qatar then Japan, Korea Republic, Iran, Australia CONMEBOL - Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, Argentina CONCACAF - Mexico, USA, Jamaica CAF - Senegal, Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco, Egypt UEFA - Belgium, France, Portugal, Germany, England, Spain, Croatia, Netherlands, Russia, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Italy Play-Offs Peru, Haiti, Iraq, New Zealand (in this order depending on play-off fixtures).
I wonder what Egypt would do if they make it. There are no flights allowed and they are a part of the blockade in the middle east. Maybe they would make an exception? Or have the team fly to Europe and then Qatar?
So this is a big week in terms of the seeding for UEFA qualifying. (This was discussed at length in some thread around here last month but can't find it now. In any case this seems like the more logical thread to hold this discussion). Anyone have the updated FIFA rankings taking into account the batch of friendlies yesterday? IIRC Italy, Denmark, DEU, NED and CHE were fighting it out to fill the last 4 spots in pot #1(?). Of those only CHE lost (albeit to #1 Belgium) and NED draw against #5 Spain. The other 3 all won. Most notably Denmark (ranked #8) beat #13 Sweden. Curious to see if drawing a top team helps you more/less in the ranking than beating a poor team (Italy beat Estonia). Granted friendlies aren't worth much in the first place...
My guess is maybe they fly to Europe then Qatar. I have some friends from Europe, that would normally stay 2-3 weeks in the host country who plan on flying in on weekends during the tournament. Then back to work during the week. With the time of the year they can't take off from work. I can't go at all. With my job I can't take any days off from November to March. I wonder how many are in same boat and with the time of year change does it open it up for some to go that can't get time off in June and July.
The team at Weglobalfootball have Pot 1 as Italy, Denmark, Germany & Netherlands. Ireland falling to Pot 3 replaced in Pot 2 by Slovakia, and Bosnia dropping to Pot 4 replaced by Finland.