YNT-eligible lower-division pro players: 2019/2020 Offseason thread

Wow! These last three posts are by three of my favorite posters and I definitely think that all of you are seeing a part of the picture clearly, but I also think you are all missing a piece that USL see very clearly, as evidenced by the fact that they bring up Boise or Wichita in their quotes about possible expansion combined with their hiring of Peter Wilt and Liam O’Connell to help towns that may not be used to developing a soccer culture or player development system.

It isn’t a binary/either-or issue here. College football, for example, has great football in the Southeast and Midwest, but there is no doubt that Nebraska’s tradition has added to it as well. Boise State has been a breath of fresh air and once these programs were established, they had no problems filling stadiums or sustaining their fan bases. Kansas do the same thing in basketball.

The reason that I listen to the Union Omaha podcast is because I love how passionate they are about a team that has yet to play a game in USL league 1. They have their own theme song that they will sing as fans, they interview players who have yet to play a game for their club and they talk constant trash with the fans of other league 1 clubs of whom their team has never played.

Could you generate that kind of hardcore passion in the northeast in a sport that has never been played professionally in that area before and for a team that has never played a game?

One of the reoccurring themes that has emerged over and over again in both my career and my life is that things that seem right in theory turn out not to be true when you get on the ground level and talk to individual people. This is why I appreciate that bureaucracies are necessary, but I hate what they often do - solve bureaucratic problems while they ignore what is actually going on at the ground level.

At the ground level, some of the least likely towns have the greatest potential as league 1 locations. I believe that USL is out there identifying them and helping them to develop. I just hope that the covid 19 situation doesn’t grind the process to a halt.

 

I think I am largely in agreement with you. My point is not that the Great Plains and northern Mountain West can't support any teams, but that they cannot support enough teams to create a division with relatively short travel times and that, basically, that's fine.

My argument doesn't rest on my non-existent expertise in the cultural & sporting preferences of towns in this region, but on the fact that there are relatively few population centers of any size.

For example, the largest metro area in MT is Billings, checking in at 181k, the 233rd largest MSA in the country. South Georgia Tormenta is based in a county so small it's not even part of a metro area, but SGT aside, the next smallest metro currently with a club is Reno (475k / 115th).

My hope is that USL League One will be able to create an environment where metro areas in the 250k-500k range become viable because if population centers of that size can support clubs, we'll have reached a cultural place where we can support a LOT of clubs.

However, there are actually zero clubs in League One right now in the 250k-500k range. Tormenta is a weird, tiny exception so far. The next smallest metro is Chattanooga (565k, 100th)

Current USL League One clubs in non-MLS markets
1,291,900 — Richmond
1,047,279 — Tucson
949,422 — Omaha
920,477 — Greenville
664,865 — Madison
565,194 — Chattanooga
* — Statesboro (79,608 in Bulloch County, 80,994 in nearby Hinesville MSA, 393,353 in nearby Savannah MSA)

non-pro-soccer markets in ID, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, and eastern WA

749,202 — Boise (#78)
640,218 — Wichita (94)
568,521 — Spokane (99)
336,374 — Lincoln (152)
268,232 — Sioux Falls (182)
246,145 — Fargo (193)
231,969 — Topeka (199)
181,667 — Billings (233)
165,697 — Coeur d'Alene (260)
151,530 — Idaho Falls (276)

That's the complete list of metro areas over 150k. There's just not that many people here! I'm glad that Omaha is doing well, but it is positively gargantuan compared to most cities in that region. And — as of yet — there is minimal proof-of-concept that pro soccer is viable in smaller cities (everyone below Spokane on the list, basically). Hopefully that changes.

If things work out for cities in this region, that is legitimately fantastic, but it's worth noting that that there is a LOT of lower-hanging fruit around the country. I'm talking about places that are much larger than most of these cities, in less geographically isolated places.

Here's a sampling of the largest MSAs without pro soccer, along with their ran.

12. San Francisco-Oakland (yes, I know, the census has a separate MSA for San Jose, and maybe there will be an East Bay USL club in 2021?)
13. Inland Empire
14. Detroit
21. Baltimore
34. Cleveland
37. Virginia Beach
38. Providence
39. Milwaukee
40. Jacksonville
45. New Orleans
49. Buffalo
51. Grand Rapids
54. Fresno
56. Honolulu
58. Worcester
59. Bridgeport
62. Bakersfield
63. Albany
64. Knoxville
66. Baton Rouge
67. New Haven
68. Oxnard/Ventura
70. Allentown
71. Columbia
72. Sarasota
73. Dayton
75. Greensboro
76. Cape Coral/Fort Myers
77. Stockton


I think Boise is a really great expansion option — and there have been rumors. Every metro area listed above is currently larger than Boise (though Boise is a better expansion option than some).

 

Before I would take a chance in some small market (I think there could be a time and place), I would want to see continued growth in the major markets. Cities like LA and Dallas could easily support 2/3 USL teams if strategically placed in different areas of the city. These are the talent hotbeds and could offer further development of players that otherwise wouldn't have a shot as a professional.

There is definitely a place for a city like Boise to have a team, but I think you have to have a big youth population in any market to make a pro team successful.

 

Texas in particular is ripe for this sorta thing, particularly as the population is exploding at an amazing rate.

I think the Fort Worth Vaqueros in particular are making good progress in their community. That's the NPSL team owned by former FCD general manager Michael Hitchcock. There's real potential there for advancement. The company Hitchcock founded, Playbook Management International, also runs the Denton Diablos (NPSL) and Dallas Sidekicks in Allen (one of the more famous indoor teams). They run teams around the world in lower level leagues (Puerto Rico, T&T), and have been involved in futsal too. I've always thought if somebody with a lot of foresight wanted to really make a difference, they'd put Hitch in charge of creating a vibrant USL League One level league in Texas. Its so possible. You got so many markets that are just obvious. So much talent in the youth ranks to build from. And by the way...................so few NCAA teams.

 

Great post. You are clearly seeing one side of the issue as clearly as it is possible to see it. You are exactly the kind of person people want to talk to before they move forward. You do an amazing job of letting the numbers tell a story. This kind of information is always essential to anybody in making a decision about where to expand a league.

In addition to your well articulated view, there is the other side of the coin that is equally as essential.

Which towns have ownership groups that are really excited about owning and operating a league 1 team? Minor league sports are really hard at best and you need people who aren’t going to cut and run when it gets hard because its always hard.

Do you have a population that will buy into the team? Is the area already saturated with other teams? Is it a bedroom community or is it a place where people aren’t even looking for this kind of entertainment? The fan culture is essential. Could they start a great supporters club or does the population even have that kind of demographic?

The questions that I am asking we don’t have all of the answers for in regard to Boise, but I think that someone in USL thinks that they do - at least in the case of Boise.

Regardless, I think that a lot of the best third division clubs (League 1 and NISA) are in unlikely places - how is Statesboro, Ga. a hotspot?! That is because local ownership had some kind of passion to make the local team special. That doesn’t mean that you don’t pay attention to the numbers. Those numbers are very, very important. What I am saying is that you look at the passion at the ground level first, and then you look at numbers to see if it is worth it to risk trying to make it work. An area that has a lot of numbers on the borderline may be starved for a professional sports team (mountain west region) and be willing, as a community, to do a lot more to keep one around where as a suburban area may have a much more jaded approach.

Even more important are league 2 and the new development academy system that they can use to let teams audition for league 1 status. Do you really want a league 1 franchise? Kill it at the league 2 level and surprise us with the quality of your academy and we will take another look at the numbers with no promises. If you really, really want the franchise, you will work for it. If you didn’t want the franchise as much as you said, it will show in how quickly you give up when you don’t get what you want.

I like that NISA is there to provide D3 competition. NISA may be small, but their Chattanooga, Detroit, and Oakland franchises are excellent. I want league 1 to succeed, but success won’t happen for them if they get too satisfied with their place. For that reason, I am rooting for NISA to grow. Also, if potential clubs threaten to go to NISA, let them. NISA are looking for quality franchises as well and groups need to prove their viability, regardless.

So I guess that is our difference - what we look at first. I want to see passion first (Then we can figure it out), while you are going to the numbers before you look at what I consider the most important part.

For me, if the passion is not there, don’t waste my time, regardless of your metropolitan population or local youth soccer programs. But, if the passion is truly there for you, I will always take the time to give you some kind of pathway, and then see what you do with it. A lot of people will disappoint you, but some will surprise you with what they can accomplish.

 

The keeper has potential, but is extremely raw. He’s nowhere near ready to play pro soccer.

 

This is great publicity for clubs, but it shouldn't be viewed as any more than that. It has the possibility to turn some heads and maybe generate some interest in the club, but there are youth teams in their own age group these players wouldn't get into. Both are very good and could very well have a decent future ahead of them, but are miles away from playing at that level any time soon.

I think this is similar to Francis Jacobs signing for Orange County. You will see a lot of press and publicity, then it will go away.

 

Dave Sarachan uses his Academy coaches to help him run 1st team training. The club strikes me as the type of place where they are try to connect their academy with their USL team in a functional way. Exposing young players to training with adults is a big part of that. Still, 14 is too young, even for an academy contract - regardless of his ability, but especially for a goalkeeper. That is the position that requires the most maturity.

The best players at 14 are rarely the best at 18. I like what they are trying to do in general, but this move strikes me of one made out of lack of experience on the part of the club.

 

https://www.eplocomotivefc.com/news_article/show/1108874

Goods news, there’s a lot of talent in that region.

 

This type of story is the most exciting thing that is going on in the game right now - at least in this country. We need academies with adult first teams in places like El Paso, but also in Laredo and Amarillo and countless other towns that can’t sustain anywhere close to an MLS team, but could easily support some level of local USL team.

People shouldn’t make the mistake of comparing these academies to MLS academies or even to the DA system. This is something completely different and it is going to grow very quickly because it is organic and it is not bureaucratically driven. People can figure out how to make it work at their level and share with others. Why would they share with others? Because if the other academies are stronger, they will in turn have created a stronger development environment for their own players and they are measuring the success of their academies by their effect on the first team.

I have to say, I haven’t been this excited about something in the American game in years. This - developing a strong, adult team focused academy culture in small and mid-sized cities throughout the country - is how you turn the game into a national pastime and USL appear to be taking a simple, common sense, systematic approach to it.

Between this and USL setting up the fan culture in a town before a franchise kicks its first ball, I am really rooting for USL to succeed.

Create the passion, and the club has a good chance of succeeding. How do you create sustainable passion? Sustainable academy and fan culture - the two things USL are doing really well right now.

 

Jose Gallegos San Antonio FC Highlights

Gallegos is one of the sauciest Americans, just a baller. A completely unique kind of play style for an American. Ready for him to dominate when USL comes back.

pic.twitter.com/XT22q4FmWl

— Sanjiv (@USMNTvideos) June 14, 2020

 

This isn't too surprising actually. It'll be interesting to see which teams are trying to opt out for 2020. I think we can all understand why.

Buried the news here, but I can confirm Steven’s reporting that several MLS affiliates in the #USL are looking at opting out of a 2020 return-to-play.

All but two voted against the Championship return to play last week. 22-13 vote, 7 MLS2 against. https://t.co/5oJL8Kgmug https://t.co/aludazMcKv

— Jeff Rueter (@jeffrueter) June 13, 2020

 

As expected, what suffers the most will be the young players. MLS is becoming more and more of a joke as time goes along. They want this closed system with some teams owned by billionaires, and yet now they are claiming that these incredibly rich owners can't even afford a reserve team.

They should be like any other league in the world. If your team suffers so much more than other teams financially because of COVID, the market (in this instance the standings) will sort it out, and your financial struggles will be reflected in the standings. In other countries, a financial struggle might send them tumbling down the tables, and they could find themselves in a lower division. That won't be the case with MLS teams.

The solution of MLS teams is to cut costs that effect player development in this country, and to continue their closed system where clubs that might view youth player development as the most essential part of their club aren't allowed to take advantage of those clubs that suffer financially because of COVID.

We all know these teams won't struggle to pay a 32 year old from the Belgian league with 3 senior Belgian caps 3M per year, if they can get that player signed for the summer transfer window, but the 16 and 17 year olds that have some effect on US Soccer development going forward need to have their development hurt.

 

'03 Fabrizio Bernal

 

I think he's one of the purely most talented attackers in the youth player pool. I think it's a matter of if the decision making catches up to the technical, creative and athletic tools. I think it's gotten better as the season went on.

What do you think @bpet15?

 

Who knows?
It won't surprise me if its the League One teams. All of the Championship teams have rosters big enough to support whatever comes. They have to if they're going to be competitive in that division. I don't think its about money. These reserve teams are big money losers one way or the other. NYRB averages 500 fans. They're not going to lose much less money if there are no fans.

The league one clubs like TFC2, New England2, Orlando City B, and North Texas SC have the minimum number of players under contract. There's little filler. TFC2 has 13 players under contract. We saw it last year. On game day a team like NTSC must have players down from the first team and players up from the academy. But the first team players are all going to be sequestered together in Orlando until mid-August. I don't think they can come and go. Last year players like Thomas Roberts and Edwin Cerrillo would be on the bench of the MLS team. If they didn't get into the game, then they'd start the USL game. That can't happen for the forseeable future. The academy isn't up and running yet either, and there's a limit to the number of academy players that can be used anyway. I don't know if its possible, but I'd love for USL League One to allow unlimited academy players in 2020. [Or any year for that matter, but particularly 2020.]

 

In the Goff article, he suggested it's about money.

 

Hiring Eric Wynalda always soooooooooooooounds like a good idea. Then you get to know him. There are certain people who are always "raging against the machine." The Las Vegas roster this year is like a "who's who" of former USYNTers in the "where are they now" category. I did a triple take when I saw Mobi Fehr.

In a shock move, the Las Vegas Lights fired manager Eric Wynalda late on Wednesday. https://t.co/eGGGI9XQ0m #VivaLights #USL

— Jeff Carlisle (@JeffreyCarlisle) June 18, 2020

 

2004 USYNT RCB Kobi Henry has signed with Orange County SC. Very promising center back and a big loss for inter miami

 

Whattya think? Is that NISA?
That's a league with no presence in Texas.

 

Welcome to Loudoun United Nelson Martínez!#BeLoud | #LetsRide

🔗 https://t.co/EhKnjIsFzu pic.twitter.com/pdeXXRWI39

— Loudoun United FC (@LoudounUnitedFC) June 26, 2020

The '01 defender signed a pro contract after making 17 appearances as an academy player last year.