I just found this really helpful blog written by Erin Bromage, an infectious disease professor at Univ of Massachusetts Dartmouth. This particular post covers infectiousness. It only takes 1,000 viral particles to get infected, so he covers different scenarios and known examples of transmission and time of exposure. I haven't read the other posts yet. https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
So we now know a bit more about the Sweden experiment (economy just as bad and way worse deaths per capita): https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/cor...ntract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html
This researcher out of Berkeley and Hong Kong published an explanation that if communities had 80% masking or better (a level he defines as "universal masking"), it would eliminate the disease significantly better than lockdown without masking. The brochure attributes masking as the reason Asian countries have knocked down their infections so well. His group recommends universal masking as the best way to emerge from shutdown and avoid a 2nd wave of infection. He has a 4-minute video and an interactive simulation at http://dek.ai/masks4all/#try It's too bad that masking has been made into a political issue in this country.
There is some pretty interesting data coming out of Japan, who seemed to be doing everything wrong, but has kept death rates very low. They don't test much and haven't closed down their economy like we have. But almost everyone wears masks. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/14/japan-coronavirus-pandemic-lockdown-testing/
My mainland China colleagues tell me that everything is almost back to normal -- and that is because of isolation and masks. For all the complaints about China (just like Swine Flu was California's fault) they provided a decent model of how to respond that our country has largely ignored, starting at the top. The US is not on an Asian timetable. All the projections show our numbers increasing throughout the summer, with many states showing reproduction rates > 1. I saw that Moderna's vaccine is showing promise and will be entering phase 2 testing soon. But it's lazy to expect big pharma to provide all the solutions when masks are affordable and available...and yet too many people won't use them.
It’s now 2 months of shutdown, and I have to admit I’m starting to feel pretty depressed. I even started coming up with proposals for how we could develop herd immunity! For example, devise a lottery for people to come check into the hospital, get exposed to the virus, and then stay in the hospital until they’ve recovered or died. Kind of like that old Star Trek tv episode where Kirk was on an over-populated planet. Or a diff episode where 2 planets at war would have citizens go to execution chambers if they were deemed a casualty, and Kirk (or Picard?) refuses to cooperate when told he’s become a war stat. so every person gets a lottery # like in the Vietnam War draft, except everyone has to “serve”, there are no low draft numbers!
Just makes me think of the concentration camps, where they'd send you left or right. I'd rather stay in my house.
Oh right, I forgot about that movie. But at least in my scenario, only about 6% will die, right? Whereas Logan’s Run was 100%. I saw that OrangeHair is taking Hydroxychloroquine prophylactically, so I tweeted this and it seems to have alleviated my depression a little. Hubby and I burst out laughing just reading the side effects and imagining them all happening to fearless leader. If #NotMyPresident is following the #Hydroxychloroquine dosage guidelines for #Covid_19 then he is taking 2x the dose for malaria. Anytime you 2x the dose, you are at risk of side effects. Retinopathy is #1, but maybe he’ll suffer others, especially “breathing may stop”. 🙂🙏😷 pic.twitter.com/qYwBmtWIEb— Angry MJ (@PrmryApps) May 19, 2020
Poisoning himself with non approved Covid therapy? Just because his family has a financial interest in the drug? Really hard to wrap my head around that.
I doubt he's really taking it -- if you read his doctor's note carefully, it does not actually say that -- but for whatever reason, he's promoting it.
Updated Data: Code: UN CoronaVirus (5/18) Country Population Deaths Per-Capita Per 1M Belgium 11,482,178 9,108 0.07932% 793 Spain 46,692,858 27,778 0.05949% 595 Italy 60,627,291 32,169 0.05306% 531 UK 67,141,684 35,341 0.05264% 526 France 64,990,511 28,022 0.04312% 431 Sweden 9,971,638 3,743 0.03754% 375 US - Expected 327,096,265 120,000 0.03669% 367 Netherlands 17,059,560 5,715 0.03350% 335 US 327,096,265 93,533 0.02859% 286 Switzerland 8,525,611 1,891 0.02218% 222 Canada 37,074,562 5,912 0.01595% 159 Germany 83,124,418 8,193 0.00986% 99 Iran 81,800,188 7,119 0.00870% 87 Turkey 82,340,088 4,199 0.00510% 51 Mexico 126,190,788 5,332 0.00423% 42 Japan 127,202,192 768 0.00060% 6 South Korea 51,171,706 263 0.00051% 5 China 1,427,647,786 4,634 0.00032% 3 India 1,352,642,280 3,302 0.00024% 2
The United States is going to blow right by 120,000 deaths within the next month. Our reproduction (R0) number has been hovering just below 1 but is about to climb above. Whereas western Europe is over the worst of it.
I saw the doctor’s note on twitter, but then I also saw a video of him attesting to have been taking it for a couple of weeks already. I have my fingers crossed...
Our fearless owner refusing to pay Oakland Coliseum its $1.2M annual rent due to “inability to pay”. Imagine having an owner who is worth $2 billion and having “no ability to pay” an ANNUAL rent fee of $1.2 million. Must be nice. https://t.co/npuWUtElBW pic.twitter.com/pqs0LY0fg7— Joel Soria (@soriajoelfutbol) May 19, 2020
So the A's returned all the STH money they have? How can you keep money when you have no field to play on? I think Oakland should change the locks until payment is made
Probably just a negotiating tactic. And if government is going to tell banks/landlords they should just kick mortgages/rent down the road, then perhaps they should offer the same deal to their tenants.
i don't understand what you mean... I doubt Oakland has a mortgage on the coliseum. And to me, it's criminal that a billionaire would be negotiating down a paltry rent like that with Oakland, one of the most financially distressed cities and populations in the Bay Area. I imagine Alameda County is in a bad way as well. It's as bad as Starbucks telling all its landlords it will not be paying rent for a year.
The Coliseum Stadium Authority (City of Oakland/Alameda County)is the landlord, the A's are the tenants. Government is telling businesses they can't operate yet they expect to be paid in full.
Wearing masks and vaccination should be used in tandem so long as the risk is high. But I also wouldn't hold my breath for a vaccine in the near future. Very few vaccines ever actually go into production. While these early results are promising, it's not a guarantee it'll actually get the greenlight. Let alone the time it will take to actually produce the vaccine in enough quantity if it is successful. And if we can't even get tests or masks to people who need it, what are the odds we get the vaccine to everyone? Practically non-existent. And then you have to fight with those folks who refuse vaccinations, just like those who refuse to wear masks. You can't fix the behavior of those who are wholly unwilling. We really have to come to terms that we have been the architects of our own failure. Of course, we are utterly incapable of taking responsibility as a people as well, so you know. Don't get your hopes up, is what I'm saying.
Fisher may have just guaranteed no stadium ever gets built in Oakland. What a class A jerk. Extremely difficult to be a fan of either of his teams these days.