Youth Yanks Abroad, ‘01-‘04 YOBs (and younger): 2019/20 Thread

Discussion in 'Youth National Teams' started by TheFalseNine, Jul 20, 2019.

  1. Thundering165

    Thundering165 Member+

    North Carolina FC
    United States
    May 1, 2017
    Raleigh
    I like how many of his highlights come against grown men in USLC. Obviously not a super high level but it’s not an academy league either.
     
  2. ussoccer97531

    ussoccer97531 Member+

    Oct 12, 2012
    Club:
    --other--
    One thing that I think we often overlook is the importance of these kids succeeding abroad. If you are Borussia Dortmund and you’ve had successful recruits such as Pulisic and Reyna, you are much more likely to take on the next kid to your club in 2-3 years. If you have a number who aren’t successful, are you going to sign the next American kid that your scout recommends?

    A club like Schalke might be a club that could steer away from the American market. The first two worked out to differing extends McKennie has been successful, and they’ll get a return on their investment for Wright, but Taitague hasn’t made the first team, neither will Hoppe. If Rotundo is the next kid there and goes the Taitague or Hoppe path, should we believe they’ll sign an American kid anytime soon?

    It might seem like such an obvious thing, but it’s important. Seeing these kids turn into successful players for their first team (Pulisic, McKennie, Reyna) or worst case getting a return on their initial investment (Wright, Gloster, Soto, Rubin at Utrecht, likely Richards and Booth eventually at Bayern) is important. It’s very important that there’s a minimal number of players we send over to Europe that generate no return of their investment for these clubs or no contribution to the first team.
     
  3. David Kerr

    David Kerr Member+

    United States
    Oct 18, 2019
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If anything Schalke is diving into Americans more after recently picking up Matthew Hoppe and Evan Rotundo. But if Rotundo flops (very possible) it could taint Americans for them.
     
  4. David Kerr

    David Kerr Member+

    United States
    Oct 18, 2019
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Kayo is basically Weston McKennie 2.0 with a little bit better soccer IQ in my opinion.

    Things he is great at: driving forward and taking space with the ball, being a massive physical presence

    Things he is good but not great at: defending, finishing, his passing

    What needs work: his touches on the ball

    he has the physical frame and tools needed to immediately step into the men’s game. Getting moved into first team training where more technical efficiency will be demanded is what will best develop Kayo. With him being at Wolfsburg I’m unsure of if he’ll make it to the first team there though.
     
  5. Peter Bonetti

    Peter Bonetti Member+

    Jan 1, 2005
    1970 WC Quarterfinal
    The one thing that I like about kids going over to the Bundesliga is that you get an idea of their ceiling pretty quickly. They are given chances to show their quality at various levels, and their ceiling become pretty apparent pretty quickly. Even if they hang around for a extra year or two, their quality is exposed - good and bad - a little faster in Germany.
     
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  6. David Kerr

    David Kerr Member+

    United States
    Oct 18, 2019
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    What I’m worried about is Kayo not being given the first team opportunities he would receive at other clubs. Uly would have been given his debut if he was somewhere else. I hope Kobe and Kayo are moved up quicker than Uly has
     
  7. Peter Bonetti

    Peter Bonetti Member+

    Jan 1, 2005
    1970 WC Quarterfinal
    I agree with what you are saying but I also believe that some players need to go through that process in order to understand their ceiling. They just aren’t able to see it realistically through any other process.

    This is where Kayo needs to be to find his level. Some guys just don’t understand about playing time until they spend some time not getting it. They reveal a lot about the depth of their thinking with this kind of choice and the depth with which they solve problems is a big part of their talent.
     
  8. David Kerr

    David Kerr Member+

    United States
    Oct 18, 2019
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I do think that there are clubs that Kayo could integrate into the first team over the next two years. Schalke comes to mind immediately. Wolfsburg may actually be moving Uly to Wolfsburg 2 next year which makes me wonder what will happen with Kayo who is not as good of a prospect as Uly?

    KHF does not worry me one bit. That kid will quickly break through in my opinion. He's a different breed similar to Gio
     
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  9. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Yup.
    There are few of these prospects in Germany that seem to do the Mukwelle Akale gambit of hanging around the youth/reserve teams for 6 years. In Germany there's another wave of talented kids coming behind you, and you have to really prove yourself within two years. Some arent' even given that long. Its ruthless. Shaft Brewer. Isaiah Young. Zyen Jones. There's actually a long list of these youngsters that head to the Bundesliga that aren't playing at an MLS level now. They just kind of disappear. Kids like McKinze Gaines and Haji Wright got moves elsewhere, but seem to be on a downward trajectory. The list is endless.

    The exception seems to be Taitague. He's enticing because when he's healthy he just shows signs. He's been at Schalke quite a while now.

    I think we're past the point where a bust or two prevents German clubs from rolling the dice. If you sign three American youngsters on free transfers, and one ends up as West McKennie......................then that's a deal you take. They don't care what happens to the other two.
     
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  10. ussoccer97531

    ussoccer97531 Member+

    Oct 12, 2012
    Club:
    --other--
    I think something you aren’t considering is this.

    Very successful: McKennie
    Not successful: Jones, Taitague, Hoppe
    Moderate success: Wright

    They’ve had five guys so far in recent years, and one has turned into a regular with their first team. These aren’t players they brought in at U-14 level. These are players they brought in a season or two before they would’ve went into the first team. 1 out of 5 isn’t a great percentage. If that then becomes 1 out of 6 with Rotundo, you have to start considering your investment in this market, if you aren’t already. That’s not a high percentage.

    If you are bringing a kid in from abroad at the higher levels of your academy, I would think that you are expecting a first team player (of some level) about half of the time. These aren’t unknown kids that have the same percentages to make it into the first team as any local kid from the area. These are players that are identified and brought in only because they are considered potential first team players.
     
  11. Dave Marino-Nachison

    Jun 9, 1999
    "Of some level" is doing a lot of work here.

    My suspicion is that "about half the time" is WAY too high, unless "some level" is pretty broad -- in Germany, maybe, meaning the top 3 or 4 divisions. I have no doubt that it's correct that if you bring someone in at 17 or 18 you think they offer something your candidate pool doesn't.

    Sure, maybe Schalke decides scouting the U.S. isn't worth the trouble at some point. Or maybe they just try to figure out why Dortmund's hit rate is so much higher than theirs and attempt to fix the problem. I don't know, which is why nobody pays me the big bucks to do this stuff!
     
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  12. TxEx

    TxEx Member+

    Tottenham Hotspur, Crystal Palace, FC Dallas
    Aug 19, 2016
    DFW
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    What's their "cost of investment" though? It's not like Schalke is paying for any of these kids. 20% isn't a bad return on any academy player. Clubs would kill for that return from their kids. As long as Americans remain free more and more clubs are going to take their chances because the cost to them is minimal and the potential return is a member of their 1st team squad.
     
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  13. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    One out of 5 or 6 being an everyday starter in the Bundesliga at that age is absolutely a good percentage.

    Even if future players start coming either TC attached, which may still be debatable, I doubt the success rate of someone of McKennie's ability is at 20% or greater in terms of players even at the high levels of their academy. And Schalke has a pretty good academy historically.
     
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  14. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    What do we think the "success rate" is for German kids of the same age at a club like Schalke? Its terrible.

    I think the fact that German clubs sign these kids on free transfers is crucial. They weren't even paying training compensation/solidarity payments (and I don't have an example yet where I know they have). And we know just how low the salaries of players like Alex Mendez and Uly Llanez were when they moved to German academies. I think that suprised some folks, and is not atypical. Those kids were on salaries much lower than an inferior teenager on an MLS homegrown contract. Its a very low cost roll of the dice for the clubs.

    If they had to pay transfer fees for these players, like say Tyler Adams, I think they'd be much more worried about that success rate.
     
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  15. no exit

    no exit Member+

    DC United
    United States
    Nov 20, 2019
    McKennie's worth $22MM on Transfermarkt. Now, I don't take their market value as gospel, so maybe his true market value is less or maybe it's more. Let's say the website is egregiously overestimating his value and McKennie is actually worth $10 million on the open market.

    Does anyone really believe the amount Schalke's paid on its American players exceeds $10 million? Not even considering the on-field value McKennie has delivered? Strains credulity.
     
  16. Pegasus

    Pegasus Member+

    Apr 20, 1999
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'd say it appears that other than injury that would be 2 out of 5 and still might if Taitague can ever get healthy. I would imagine that they are trying to figure out the factors that make one or two successes and the others not. I know zero about Hoppe but Wright is a disappointment and I never thought Jones was a high level prospect. I'd guess that Wright doesn't have the mental makeup to run through a wall that the very top prospects have. Can you tell that at 14-15? If so choose only kids who measure up in every other way and have that willpower too. Surely Adams and Pulisic had it. McKennie seems to also as he was an instant captain for their youth squads. In the past Dempsey would have chewed through barbed wire to prove you were wrong about him. Landon didn't make it in Germany because he didn't have that in him except in spurts (when it counted for the US).
     
  17. STANDFAST

    STANDFAST Member

    United States
    Jun 8, 2018
    Transfermarkt is the Zillow of futbol player market valuation. Unless you signed a contract this morning, your Transfermarkt "value" or "worth" is only loosely associated with reality. :)
     
  18. ussoccer97531

    ussoccer97531 Member+

    Oct 12, 2012
    Club:
    --other--
    I think this guy might've misquoted @ChuckMe92, but I'm not sure.

     
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  19. no exit

    no exit Member+

    DC United
    United States
    Nov 20, 2019
    Sure. That's why I allowed for Transfermarkt being 50% overvalued. But, to be honest, I'd bet the math still pencils out with McKennie being valued as low as $5M. There's almost no plausible scenario in which: Salaries (McKennie, Jones, Taitague, Hope, Wright) > On-Field Value (McKennie, Wright) + Financial Asset Value (McKennie).
     
  20. ChuckMe92

    ChuckMe92 Member+

    Jun 23, 2016
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That looks correct. Was supposed to trial at Venlo for 1-2 weeks but it got put off due to the pandemic. Likely with their U19s and not senior. At least for now he is going with the US over Mexico.
     
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  21. ChuckMe92

    ChuckMe92 Member+

    Jun 23, 2016
    Columbus, OH
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  22. Dave Marino-Nachison

    Jun 9, 1999
    FWIW, looking back over the last several transfer seasons, a $20M fee would be massive by Schalke sale standards. Apart from its (bigger) sales of Sane and Kehrer to two of the biggest-spending clubs on the planet, according to T'Markt's listing of transfers that actually happened, nothing else comes close.
     
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  23. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    OTOH, Schalke has an annoying habit of losing players without compensation as well, so there's a few potential datapoints there that might have been closer to McKennie that we are missing through some curious choices.
     
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  24. Dave Marino-Nachison

    Jun 9, 1999
    There are potential datapoints everywhere if you look hard enough! ;)
     
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  25. Pegasus

    Pegasus Member+

    Apr 20, 1999
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    McKennie is good at leaving on a free. [emoji2]
     
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