all of you guys don't seem to rate kayo and that's cool. everybody's entitled to their own opinions. as the conductor of the kayo hype train, stay up to date on his development in the next 6 months. best 8 prospect we have imo
Quotes from back then: (All players listed as significantly better prospects than Adams). I could keep going. There was a slew of people who saw him as a top prospect, but it was much more common for people to claim that he was low potential because he wasn't dominating games where he was the youngest player on the field. The common mistakes: 1. Undervaluing playing decently against older competition versus dominating in like years or being older 2. Obsessing over individual mistakes instead of focusing on overall potential 3. Failing to project skill development and repeating the refrain that a player is who he is at 17 or 18. 4. Not allowing new information to change an opinion -- people seem to evaluate guys only in the context of when they first viewed them as prospects I've refrained from putting poster's names, but the irony to me is that the people who made the comments above seem to make the exact same mistakes now. All these people were wrong ... and they still hold the same opinions. I'm not trying to be a dick, because I value everyone's opinion. Just because people were wrong on Adams doesn't mean they are idiots or wrong on everyone else. But I think there's systematic biases amongst the prospect hounds out there. And Adams is a good example of how they manifest. There's literally an example in your comments -- why can't Bryang Kayo, age 17, develop enough skills to improve but Erik Palmer Brown, 23, is going to develop enough to catch up to Tyler Adams? I view Kayo as a lottery pick, so I'm not betting on his future. But why is Kayo a finished product at 17, but EPB can make leaps and bounds at 23?
I think Busio will be a good MLS player but he’s not at the level of a youth national team player for the u20 cycle. Others are better than him at the 7, 9, 10, and 11 right now. Busio is a good player but that’s it, he’s not great or excellent and I don’t think he will ever develop into one. He is good at most parts of his game but has no qualities that are elite that would get him to the bundesliga level or higher which will soon be the bar for the USMNT. Kayo I think has a good chance at developing at Wolfsburg and I think has more potential than McKennie but isn’t someone I consider to be a lock. I think he has more potential than most of the 2002’s who were a very bad age group. Bello is 4th or 5th on my left back depth chart behind KHF, Sousa, Jona Gomez, and potentially Leon Flach (probably above coach tbh). Good enough for depth in the cycle but others have jumped him. Atlanta has really let him down
I usually respect your opinion and if I said some of those things (I believe I did), please put my name next to the comments I said, but I don’t like how you’ve decided that everyone who questioned Adams is wrong. You are taking criticisms that some might be right on up to this current day, and using them to say people didn’t like Adams, thought he’d bust, and all the criticisms are therefore wrong because he’s having a successful career. Unless I missed something, Adams is a contributor (some starts, some sub appearances) for a Champions League team, but not one of the best teams in the world. I don’t think there’s anyone that believes Adams will be a world class player. I think most realize that he had a forced transfer to a parent club. Comparing his club to that of another player with a different path is flawed. As I said, he’s had the red-carpet rolled out for him. He’s also a good player, so that’s helped him have success, but don’t try to arrogantly boast that everyone who made any criticisms about Adams at any point is proven wrong. You’ve also tried to relate this to unrelated topics. For example, comparing the situations of EPB and Adams is flawed. There’s no reason to try to make an example out of EPB. There’s certainly a chance he’ll have the better career. It’s even more bizarre that you’ve added Kayo to this discussion. I could understand where a comparison of Adams and EPB comes from (played for some of the same teams, defensive types, highly hyped). Kayo’s situation is almost completely opposite to either. If you want to ask if Kayo could be better than EPB (or Adams), he could be. I don’t think anyone said it’s impossible that he becomes a good player, but I think there are a lot who don’t expect it because he’s never been good. Trying to use the argument that people are ignoring raw potential in favor of results is mistyping his game IMO. I don’t see many raw tools. I see a player whose a great athlete in CM (good height, speed, fluidity) and has coordinated (albeit not overly technical or inventive) dribbling ability. I think one mistake that is often made is saying that anyone with some modicum of athleticism is a raw player with high potential if he puts it all together. There are a lot of athletic players. The ones with potential IMO and the ones that turn into very good players are the ones with real soccer skills (technical, tactical, creative, defensive). Which of those does Kayo have? Also, it’s usually players about 2-3 years younger than Kayo, not 18 year olds. If you are still that raw, even against your peers, at that age, I think it’s expecting too much when that player goes into the pro game. If they have another 2-3 years of games against their peers, that’s another story.
It is astonishing how many players you have been so wrong about, but what is so annoying is the unwillingness to change an opinion (I will give some credit for finally coming around on Pulisic after u17 WC). We all get it wrong on players, but the list of players that you have fought so hard for over the years is pretty impressive. I am sure I am missing some, but off the top of my head.... Hamid, Trapp, Agudelo, Flores, Wright, EPB, etc. I think you have missed a lot about Adams. He has been dominant at times for RBL. I have gone from he is interesting to he is pretty good... to he has the potential to be a world class player. Maybe I am the only one, but the number is bigger than zero. Maybe he will have injuries curtail his career or end up in a role that doesnt maximize his talent or maybe it just doesnt happen. I do think he has the potential to a player on the level of Kante. The kid is an absolute beast I. The middle of the park breaking up plays. I think his skillset isnt maximized when playing more advanced or out wide, but also think the versatility keeps him on the field early on and helps him round out his game. Somebody in NY dubbed him the AmeriKante a few years ago and that is the direction I hope his career goes.
To be clear, I respect your opinion as well, and my point is not to illuminate where people have been wrong in order to gotcha anyone. Your opinion at the time, if you'd like to go back, seems to be that he didn't have the skills to be a central midfielder but you thought he could be a very good right back. Some of those quotes were yours; most were not. (A LOT of people wanted to move him to right back. Like 18 months later, people were furious about it.) The folks who evaluated Adams as having a low ceiling, as never being able to be a topflight center midfielder were wrong. Those who thought Durkin would be better or was a better prospect were wrong. I don't extend that to think anyone is bad at this, or that they are always wrong. People are always going to be wrong about projecting players. But as I said, I think there's some common assumptions or biases that show up in the evaluation. And one of the big ones is failing to acknowledge what a positive indicator holding one's own while playing up in age/ability is. I follow prospects in a lot of sports, and with the exception of something like American football, one of the best single indicators of an exceptional future career is to simply hold your own playing up. It can be a better indicator (and is in baseball and often basketball) than actually dominating your own age group. Adams was that guy in the U20 WC; he was that guy early in his MLS career. It's no guarantee the player ends up at a caliber of Adams, but the mere fact that he was holding RBNY playing time at 17 and 18 should have signalled that he was much more high potential than people were giving him credit for. I think it's something to keep in mind with Busio, with Ricardo Pepi, with Danny Leyva, with Uly Llanez and Konrad de la Fuente from the last U20s. Way too much weight is put on performance, not enough on tools and skills, and being able to hang. Each year between 15 and 20 are typically noted by a tremendous amount of growth, physicall and otherwise. Those years matter. I bring in EPB only in that evaluating the prospects at the time of the 2017 U20 World Cup, while Palmer-Brown may have outperformed Adams ... in evaluating potential, the two years difference in age is HUGE and generally got ignored. That's my big point. Age matter more than people seem to acknowledge here. I hope EPB ends up as good as you think. You can improve at 23; it's just less likely to make step changes. The point, again, is nothing particular about EPB. It's the track records of strong improvement at 23 is less than for younger players. But it happens, and not super infrequently. Just much less often than a 17 year old making a leap. -------------------------------------- As for Kayo, I'm not sure we disagree. Most of the guys with profiles like him don't put it all together. I called him a lottery ticket for a reason -- it's a low probability. But he's still 17; most players at 17 still improve significantly. Will it be enough? Who knows? But I do know Kayo at the high end of manifesting his potential is good to make the USMNT. J
Personally, I made some errors in assessing Adams ability to play centrally. I think he’s able to process and play at a faster pace as a central midfielder than I thought. He’s shown that for Leipzig, and I don’t discount that. He may not be the most cerebral player, but he can play his game in a faster level of game and for a team that plays at a high speed. That counts for something. At the same time, I really can’t say I think I was wrong on a larger view of Adams. I viewed him as a top level player in his age group. He wouldn’t have been #1 or #2 on the list of players I’d expect to hit their ceiling and he’s not my favorite style of player, but he’s probably going to hit the ceiling I thought was possible for his game and looking at how his career is unfolding, it’s not surprising. Would I build my team with him playing centrally? No, I would not, and if I’m using him centrally, it’s as a box to box player. The way I’d want to build a team requires a player with a better passing range and more positional discipline than Adams has in the #6 position. I believe he’s a talented player who is currently one of the better American players. I also prefer his game at RB/RWB, or some form of utility player that starts every game at the position the team had a need that game. He could probably also do a good job at LB. There are a lot of options there IMO, but he’s a good player who should be on the field. As to his performance at the U-20 WC, I’m simply going to agree to disagree. I think you make a good point that being able to hold your own playing up an age group is a more important indicator than it gets credit for being, but I thought he was a real liability at that tournament. I also think many simply underestimate EPB’s current ability. You see people compare him to Carter-Vickers, Robinson, Glad, McKenzie usually, but I’d argue he’s a lot more proven and also more talented than all of these players. He’s played for three straight seasons in leagues better than MLS, and has either with time or immediately at all three clubs gained a starting role that he didn’t relinquish. I don’t claim to watch all these games, but I’ve seen enough, and I think his level of play is that of a NT starter or right in contention for it with Long and Brooks. None of those teams handed him a spot. He had a spot because he earned it. He also plays in a better league than all of those similarly ages CB’s, has more pro experience and is IMO more talented. He doesn’t play at the same level of club as Adams, but I don’t think he’s a substantially different level of player currently. We all have seen many times how some very good players have it difficult making their way up the club ladder and others have it very easy. I recognize your point about their performances in that tournament and how Adams has made himself into a NT starter while EPB hasn’t, yet I’d still say the ability level of the two is pretty similar.
I personally think that Adams ceiling is one move higher than Leipzig and I’m 100% fine with it. He is a damn good center who if paired next to a solid distributing center mid will be a key player for us. Did he have the highest ceiling as a youth prospect? No, but progression is not linear and prospects rise/fall all the time. I’m pretty hard on Busio but is there a possibility he turns into a USMNT/Europe player? Yes As long as a player hasn’t entered the Andrew Carleton/Chris Goslin zone of not even being able to break into their MLS team then a player still has a chance.
I agree with 2 through 4, but think #1 is much more complicated. I also think it is often overvalued by the "first team minutes" crowd. I think we need young players to be dominant difference makers at their age group and then learn to so that at higher ages and then eventually the adult level and then better competition. For kids, I look for players that can do more than just fit in against older competition. I've seen people lazily quoting stats about a player without any mention of how they actually play and then rule out other because they have not met some arbitrary minimum number of minutes. I havent followed Busio closely, but do generally like his skillset. I dont recall him being overly dominant with the u17s. I have seen that he has had a couple of nice highlights with SKC, but when you step back and look at his overall play, he generally has quite a bit of time and space on the ball and while he attempts some more aggressive passes, he generally plays it very safe. There is nothing wrong with that being where he is in the process. It just means he hasnt shown enough at that level that projects to him ultimately being dominant. Contrast that vs what Reyna has done. Some are saying his 185 minutes isnt enough, but those are sub minutes across 10 or so games where he has repeatedly made an impact on the game. I am sure there are many other points I would add to your list, but there is a need to take into account the mentality of the player. Of course this is very difficult to assess as fan but there are still hints and coaches often make comments when they really like this about a player. CP is clearly wired differently than most and while there was no way of a fan knowing it when he was 16, but there were signs of it in the way he played the game. There were always to questions to me about his teammates Haji Wright. You listen to anybody talk about Adam's or just him talking, it is clear he has "it". My guess on Carleton was that he was going to end up on the extreme of the spectrum... sort of head way he has or would have been an incredibly confident player. Busio looks like a 17 year old playing with men to me in these clips.
That video that I made is one of the first times I saw Busio play and he's never really played anywhere close to that level again in the last 18 months.
I think Busio’s ceiling is a MLS all star. A few years ago that would’ve been a ynt lock and an exciting USMNT prospect but now we have numerous players in every single age group who’s ceilings blow that away. He’s not a bad player by any means, but unless you’re a SKC fan he’s not one that people should be keeping their eyes on. His big thing right now is using his ability to read and process the game quickly (by far his best quality) and create danger in the final third. He will never be someone who will dribble by players so his game has to be creating chances with his passing and his vision. I have seen one play from him in the last three years that impressed me and it was his first MLS assist (I forget who it was against) but he doesn’t consistently create danger at any level that he’s at which is a problem. When you watch the game you don’t think that Busio has the it factor that you normally watch and see with other major prospects. He is a good prospect, not a great prospect to me. A player at the 10 I think should be getting much more recognition instead is Jose Gallegos, he is a great player.
Obviously not enough time on his hands to actually sit down and watch film based off of half of the blatant incorrect comments he made. I respect Brian as a couch and respect him the most out of the 343 group because he is the only level headed one who doesn’t go out of his way to bash other prospects like Gary and John. Honestly, Brian usually doesn’t have anything but nice things to say about players unless they are noticeably bad. However, he should not have made these videos. A good majority of people on this website who do the dirty work and watch hours of film will all agree that the depth video was bad. A lot of us on here could have done better and listed not only one sub per position, a lot of us could have gone 4-5 people deep in each spot. I personally think Brian did the twitter world a disservice by announcing a roster that many will believe is the best choice roster even though it is apparent that he hasn’t done the research like many of us have. The moment he listed Oscar Cervantes in this he immediately discredited himself from being taken seriously when talking about the u20’s ever again for me.
When I watched I thought US soccer ended in southern California. He seems to be incredibly biased to southern california and foreign based players dual nationals. Interesting he did include MLS players Duke, Roberts, and Tessman.
To be fair, he has a very personal connection to all of these kids so it would be hard not to. Most of us would want to put kids we developed into a team like this if we actually had a reasonable chance
Brian just showed that like everyone else 343, if you give them enough rope... They’re just all such pompous snake oil salesmen. Just the way that they use these weird claims to authority, when in reality their combined accomplishments all come out to 0 professional coaching experience. Pranic on the Scuffed podcast may have been the best example of stupid people talking the loudest. He coined the phrase “you don’t know” suggesting that because he is a travel soccer referee he some how understands the landscape better than the people who have made a career out of developing soccer in this country. He goes through these blanketed complaints about nothing and every time Belz pressed him he starts sounding like an idiot. He at one point complains about the soccer media, then Belz presses him, and Pranic responds with not liking what Herc Gomez talks about on his own podcast. I’m usually someone who thinks it’s fine to just let him sound like an idiot. But the problem with the 343 moron squad is that people stupider than them see them as some geniuses, rather than what they are: an ex youth coach, a referee, and the brother of a ex youth coach who sit around act like because their recent lineage is attached to nations that have historically done well in soccer they are smart than us pleeb Americans. They never provide solutions just spout off on Twitter about problems. It is a really shame that they have their involvement in some legit prospects.
I got the roster from the March u20 camp that was supposed to happen. Here is the roster with positional layouts that was sent to me: Goalkeeper: Chituru Odunze, Luca Lewis Right Center Back: Owen Otasowie, Jacob Akanyirige, Bryan Reynolds Left Center: Leo Sepulveda, Bobby Pierre (!!!) Right Back: Julian Araujo, Ian Hoffmann Left Back: Travian Sousa, Stuart Ritchie 6: Danny Leyva, Leon Flach 8: Taylor Booth, Cole Bassett 10: Thomas Roberts, Bryce Dyke Right Wing: Cam Harper, Quincy Butler Left Wing: Gianluca Busio, Jose Gallegos Striker: Ricardo Pepi, Matthew Hoppe, Johan Gomez Percieved starters were listed first so it would be: Odunze Araujo-Otasowie-Sepulveda-Sousa Leyva-Booth Roberts Harper-Pepi-Busio
I also liked how restrained Brian was compared to Gary on 3four3, actually seemingly respectful of Berhalter and his style of play. Then I saw Oscar Cervantes in the Twitter replies: That is part of GB’s job. Main reason why MLS/USSF hired a puppet is so that they can use the NT to prop up MLS. Some of these players he calls up have no business anywhere near a NT.— O.Cervantes (@CoachC2124) April 17, 2020 The Pranjic episode was soo frustrating. The 3four3 group always criticize the roster whenever comes out, so when Belz pressed John on a realistic team I was actually stoked to finally hear all the hidden gems we must be missing. His lineup was literally just Zardes or Sargent or Ferreira at striker, Lletget at the 10, McKennie at the 8, Adams at the 6, Dest at LB, Cannon at RB and whining about how he's not excited by anyone throughout.
I appreciate what Oscar Cervantes does in the DA. For a player with little talent, he’s a top 10 or so #6 in the U-19 DA, but he absolutely is not a YNT caliber of player. He’d be bossed in a game that is against good competition.
Generally speaking, if you're going to competing against pros, you want a college player to be dominant at that level. Oscar Cervantes started 10 of 18 games at UCI. Now, he played well when he played. But if you can't even start for an above-average but not-great college team, I can't imagine you're one of the three best players in the country at your position.
Supposedly invited to MNT: Reyna, Cardoso, KHF, Kayo Confirmed call-up to U23s: Llanez Presumably not released for U20s: Konrad, Vassilev (both on U23 provisional), Kelman, Miljevic, Tessmann Pierre is still provisionally tied to Haiti but he is the only '02 CB called up to this US U20 camp, ahead of Tomkinson, Carrera, Gray. Good chance Pierre prefers the US, the better team and where he was born/raised, but they just didn't show interest in him until after the U17 World Cup. Flach was at a Germany U19 camp in between the January and March US U20 call-ups.