Canada has canceled its March friendlies, so any lingering chance of overtaking El Salvador is pretty much gone. Assuming no changes to the rules.
Is it feasible that the format of Concacaf be totally modified? How many FIFA dates would have to be suspended by the Covid-19 for this to happen?
It would certainly be possible to alter things. That would be up to CONCACAF and the number of dates required would depend on the new format. We could all come up with formats that would require relatively few games. What CONCACAF might ultimately end up doing is just declaring that the top three FIFA ranked CONCACAF teams as of date X are qualified. That would guarantee that the US and Mexico make it which is all that CONCACAF seems to care about anyway.
The playoff between fourth in the Hexagonal and the best of the rest is scheduled from October 2021. The latest it could be is November, so there is one pair of dates to spare. Qualifying is scheduled to start in September, so it needs to start by October in order for the announced format to be possible. I want USA to qualify, but I want there to be qualifying, and I hope FIFA would object to one confederation eliminating qualifying. Maybe a lot of qualifying will be done in two legs rather than groups. A quick format that would just need eight matchdays (four pairs) is: Divide into Bracket 1 with 12 teams, Bracket 2 with 12 teams, and Bracket 3 with 11 teams. Brackets 1 and 2 have 4 teams gets byes and 8 teams (5-12) play in Round 1. Round 2 has teams 1-4 play the Round 2 winners. Bracket 3 has 11 teams and 6 teams (6-11) play in Round 1. Round 3 has teams 1-4 play team 5 and the Round 2 winners. Each bracket would have 4 teams left and play Round 3 and Semifinals and Round 4 as a Final. The team for the interconfederational playoff would be whichever team eliminated in their Bracket Final did the best. That is the way Concacaf started qualifying for World Cups 2006 and 2010. Both of those had two rounds before three Semifinal groups of four. In this case the final four in each bracket would be decided by aggregate series rather than groups. If you go up from eight to ten matchdays, the final four in each bracket could play how the Semifinals were except it would qualify the winner, send one second place to the interconfederational playoff, and eliminate eight teams. This would not accomplish the goal of letting the bottom countries play in a group rather than have teams get eliminated after two legs, but it may not be possible to follow that goal. If there are Olympics in Summer 2021, that could conflict with WCQs or give players a busier summer without even factoring being less available for a domestic league in the Americas or friendlies if they are on a European club with a fall to spring season. Some Olympic (U-23) players will be wanted by their senior national teams, and the Olympic team can be supplemented by three overage players. Maybe they could make a one time exception and not allow the overage players.
Qatar having trouble with the pandemic and the foreign workers who, as everybody knows, are not living in the best conditions: https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/coronavirus-threatens-qatar-s-2022-world-cup-dreams-1.8741738 The way things are going in the Middle East, I predict the construction will be stopped soon, with hundreds (if not thousands) of workers sick, and many dying --something that won't be reported in the news.
WCQ will change This Concacaf WCQ story is mostly "things will change, but we have no idea how yet" but here's the key line:"Without games in March and June... Montagliani said, there is a “little bit of an integrity issue” in locking in the current six teams." https://t.co/hD5EW80y9m— Oliver Platt (@plattoli) April 13, 2020
"there is a “little bit of an integrity issue" You know something drastic has happened when CONCACAF acknowledges integrity issues.
What will have to be reported is if Qatar is unable to have the stadiums ready to host. We can't rule out the World Cup being moved, postponed to 2023, or skipped. For Americans, it may turn out well that we're not hosting until 2026, although stadium construction isn't an issue here.
No way in hell FIFA skips a WC finals short of WW3. IMO what's way more likely is truncated qualifying, e.g. home-and-away playoffs cutting the field down into groups of 4, with the winner of each qualifying for the Finals. For instance: Concacaf may have to bring back and adapt their format from the '00s: 2 rounds of playoffs to bring the field down to 12, then 3 groups of 4 with the winner of each group grabbing a berth and the best runner-up going to the playoffs. For UEFA (esp. if the 2020-21 Nations League is unfeasible): one round of preliminary playoffs to cut the field down to 52...then 13 groups of 4, winner in each qualifies. Conmebol: 2 groups of 5 should do the trick (and less politically volatile than cutting the field down to 8 first). CAF: their format is already fine, they would just have to give WCQ priority in 2021 and figure out what to do with 2023 AFCON qualifiers later. AFC: Finish up the semifinal round as is (if possible), then change the Final round into 3 groups of 4 (group winners + best runner-up qualify directly). OFC: Just let the Nations Cup decide everything
The problem is that everything is bunching up together. Players will have to play qualifiers, cups, leagues, and assorted others at a rate of four games per week to make everything happen. Which means I don't see it happening. Some tournaments will have to be sacrificed, some cups will have to be cancelled or modified. The 2021 calendar is the one that's going to show the real damage.
One place they could squeeze something into the calendar would be to replace the 2021 Gold Cup with four WCQ dates. There already is an early June window for two games, which was slated for friendlies for the Hex teams and a WCQ knockout round for the rest. They could instead have room for six WCQ games in June and July, and could get it done before the Olympics. It would be a crazy summer for anybody playing six WCQs and then the Olympics, but it also would be so if somebody's playing a June window plus Gold Cup plus Olympics. If nothing at all can get played in 2020, they could have March 2021 plus summer plus September/October/November for 14 matchdays, which is what the announced format requires, including the last playoff. I agree that the announced format is even more unfair now than it was before March and June 2020 were canceled, but there are many other alternative formats that could get concocted with 14 matchdays to work with. Then there's an open summer in 2022 when they could play a delayed Gold Cup. Might have to put off the next Nations League until after WC22.
If I've understood the numbers correctly, the USSF-SUM-MLS stay in the black thanks to the Gold Cups, reason why they'd like to have them every year --which is, alas! impossible. With no friendlies and no Gold Cup in 2021, all the numbers will turn red and it's going to be impossible to keep luring candidates to keep expanding the league and keep getting those $100 million per team fees that keep the whole thing going. The Nations League will have to be the one sacrificed then.
I think you mean CONCACAF stays in the black because of the Gold Cup. The Gold Cup is not a huge percentage of revenue for SUM. I don't know if SUM evens handles the rights for it other than the sale of sponsorships. CONCACAF appears to sell the TV rights separately on its own. If you have other information that would be interesting to see.
https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2017/05/08/Events-and-Attractions/SUM.aspx SUM, which represents MLS’s commercial rights in addition to those of the U.S. Soccer Federation and the Mexican national team’s U.S. tour, recently was selected by CONCACAF to market and service its worldwide sponsorship rights through 2021. CONCACAF has the most active summer ahead of it among SUM’s portfolio outside of MLS, with the Gold Cup hosted across the U.S. in July. https://www.starsandstripesfc.com/2...jor-league-soccer-marketing-usa-mexico-canada MLS keeps adding teams. And each time it does, the fee for one of those expansion teams goes up. Ten years ago, Toronto FC came into the league for a fee of $10 million. Now, we are talking about a competition between 12 cities for the next two spots at a cost of $150 million. What's going on? Why is there so much interest when they aren't making money? Well, the answer is quite simple: they are making money. They’re making lots of money, but the way that the account books are set up, you won't actually be able to see that. The league manages to make a little money through the league, but the bulk comes through managing American soccer media rights. [...] Soccer United Marketing (SUM) is the real spring of oil in this whole equation. When investors are staring mouths agape at MLS, they are really looking at SUM, the company that handles the media rights for American soccer. https://www.forbes.com/sites/chriss...s-on-top-as-expansion-fees-sale-prices-surge/ Put simply, Major League Soccer’s surging expansion fees and sales prices are not being driven by financial performance. In fact, although revenues are broadly on the rise, the league and most of its teams continue to operate at a significant loss. https://www.si.com/soccer/2018/01/25/sum-soccer-united-marketing-garber-gulati-carter We also have been representing CONCACAF since 2005. Under the current agreement, SUM promotes the Gold Cup matches that are held in the United States. Also, following the Traffic scandal, SUM took over responsibility for the sale of sponsorships, but not broadcast rights, for the Gold Cup and CONCACAF Champions League. https://www.tsn.ca/tsn-becomes-cana...ld-cup-and-concacaf-champions-league-1.753126 TSN today announced a new, multi-year rights agreement with the Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football (CONCACAF) which sees Canada’s Sports Leader become the official broadcaster of the CONCACAF GOLD CUP and Scotiabank CONCACAF CHAMPIONS LEAGUE... Soccer United Marketing (SUM), Major League Soccer’s commercial arm and partner of CONCACAF for more than a decade, negotiated the agreement. --- SUM controls not just the sponsorships for the GC & the CCL, but also negotiates the broadcast rights with the companies from each country, which means they get a slice of it. Since the league overall runs on a deficit, the money from SUM is what makes it remain in the black, so it can be tempting to new investors who, each passing year, must pay more and more to obtain a franchise.
OK. SUM is involved with Gold Cup sponsorship rights and negotiated the TV deals for some countries. I don't see any proof that SUM negotiated the current FOX tv deal with CONCACAF. I see nothing there that says the Gold Cup rights are what puts SUM into the black. I don't see anything that says what percentage of SUM revenues are derived from CONCACAF deals. Yes, SUM is what drives the increased value of MLS teams but that is not what you claimed. You said that the Gold Cup specifically is what puts USSF-SUM-MLS in the black. I remain unconvinced of this.
Where else are they going to get revenues now that there are very few friendlies (thanks Nations League) and that the CCL has been suspended, probably for good? It's the Hex & the Gold Cup, and the Hex is just a handful of games from which they can benefit.
SUM revenues will be down, no question. Still doesn't establish that the Gold Cup is what puts USSF-SUM-MLS in the black. CONCACAF is in bigger financial trouble without the Gold Cup.
I'm not saying it's good to have your favorite MLS club have players away on national team duty, but fans who prioritize clubs over national teams should be told to value national teams if MLS clubs would have much lower payrolls if it wasn't for SUM revenue from national teams.
According to Montagliani, the Hex might expand Victor Montagliani speculates that the hex as we know it will change - and, likely, expand - for 2022. WATCH ▶:https://t.co/9ADUhUXIBK#MLS | #CanPL | #LigaMX— OneSoccer (@onesoccer) May 5, 2020
@Paul Calixte for CAF they can double up Qualification for WC 2022 and AFCON 2023. WC is gonna be in December and AFCON is couple months after.
They can do like we do. The top 10 from the current round who move on to the World cup playoffs all automatically qualify for AFCON. If Ivory Coast make the last 10 then the rest of the confederation can play for the 14 remaining spots, 13 spots if they don't. You would have to give teams already eliminated some opportunity to get back in the system either by playoffs or having 13 or 14 three to 4 team groups for the remaining 46 nations. That would take six match days and they could start when the playoffs for the 5 WC spots are on leaving only 4 match days required.